Akello Uses His Computer To Download A Document From The Internet. What Role Does His Computer Play As Opposed To The Computer From Which He Is Downloading The Document? Select Two. (2023)

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  • @article{RN1187, author = {Abadie, Luis M. and Jackson, Luke P. and Sainz de Murieta, Elisa and Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Galarraga, Ibon}, title = {Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario}, journal = {Ocean & Coastal Management}, volume = {193}, pages = {105249}, abstract = {The high degree of uncertainty associated with the extent of future sea-level rise stems primarily from the potential mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctica ice-sheets. We explore the impact of this uncertainty on economic damage due to sea-level rise for 136 major coastal cities. We compare the probability distribution for damage under the assumption of no adaptation for two relative sea-level projections: the RCP 8.5 scenario from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and a High-end scenario that incorporates expert opinion on additional ice-sheet melting. We use the 50th and 95th percentiles to estimate expected damage and one risk measure, the Expected Shortfall ES (95%), which represents the impact of low-probability, high-damage coastal flood risk (above the 95th percentile). Aggregate expected damage by 2050 under RCP 8.5 is US$1,600 billion, while the aggregate risk measure ES(95%) is almost twice as much as the average damage at US$3,082 billion. Under the High-end scenario, ES(95%) figures in Guangzhou and New Orleans by 2050 are twice as high as the expected damage. The city of Guangzhou leads the ranking under both scenarios, followed by Mumbai and New Orleans. Our results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the possibility of High-end scenarios into coastal adaptation planning for future sea-level rise, especially for risk-averse decision-making.}, keywords = {Regional sea-level rise Coastal cities Damage risk Probabilistic projections Ice-sheet melting risk Unmitigated scenarios}, ISSN = {0964-5691}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105249}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569120301599}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1188, author = {Abadie, Luis M. and Jackson, Luke P. and Sainz de Murieta, Elisa and Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Galarraga, Ibon}, title = {Additional dataset to "Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario"}, publisher = {Zenodo}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4733499}, url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4733499}, year = {2021}, type = {Dataset} } @article{RN1189, author = {Abatzoglou, John T. and Williams, A. Park and Barbero, Renaud}, title = {Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, pages = {326-336}, keywords = {climate change climate modeling fire natural variability}, ISSN = {1944-8007}, DOI = {10.1029/2018GL080959}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080959}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1190, author = {Abayomi, A. and Cowan, M. N.}, title = {The HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa: Convergence with tuberculosis, socioecological vulnerability, and climate change patterns}, journal = {S Afr Med J}, volume = {104}, number = {8}, pages = {583}, ISSN = {0256-9574 (Print)}, DOI = {10.7196/samj.8645}, url = {http://www.samj.org.za/index.php/samj/article/download/8645/6084}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @inproceedings{RN1191, author = {Abbas, Adam M.}, title = {Climate Change and Forced Migration from Ngala and Kala-Balge LGAs, N.E. Borno State, Nigeria}, booktitle = {Global Changes and Natural Disaster Management: Geo-information Technologies}, editor = {Pirasteh, Saied and Li, Jonathan}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, pages = {141-151}, abstract = {North-Eastern Borno State, Nigeria, due to its location, size, and population is very vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Even though sufficient understanding and propagation are made on the impact of climate change and its associated problems, little effort is however made to address most of the problems emanating from it. More especially forced migration, one of the resultant effects of drought, a component of climate change is given less attention in this part of the country. Specifically, the paper explores how the expected high intensity of droughts in the study area might worsen crop production situation and lead to the only adaptation strategy, a widespread forced migration. This paper focuses on the climate change impact and one of the effects, migration, and its associated problems. Purposive sampling technique was adopted in sampling 250 respondents who were mainly family members of out-migrants from Ngala and Kala-Balge LGAs, Borno State, Nigeria. Available literature was also consulted for the types of climate change impacts. The results revealed that climate changeClimate changeleads to climatic variation over the space with numerous effects on the environment such as intermittentIntermittentdroughtsDrought, desertification/deforestation, low water table, and the establishment of dams upstream across the courses of the main sources of water supply to the Lake Chad hence, low agricultural productionAgricultural production sectorespecially rain-fed. Many people in the study area either migrated to Cameroon’s Darrak, Bullaram, Lake Doi, Lake Chad, and Mayo-Mbund for fishing and petty trading or South-Western Nigeria especially Lagos, Oyo states, etc., to serve as security guards and other low-skilled workers, leaving all or some members of their families at home. More than half of respondents (58%) indicated that the head of the households migrated as a result of poor harvest due to diminishing or fluctuating rains/drought and/or drying of river Surbewel. It is recommended that interbasin water transferInterbasin water transfers should be embarked upon.}, ISBN = {978-3-319-51844-2}, type = {Conference Proceedings} } @article{RN1192, author = {Abbas, Huyam A. and Bond, William J. and Midgley, Jeremy J.}, title = {The worst drought in 50 years in a South African savannah: Limited impact on vegetation}, journal = {African Journal of Ecology}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {490-499}, ISSN = {1365-2028}, DOI = {10.1111/aje.12640}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aje.12640}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1193, author = {Abdalahh, Mohamed}, title = {Impact of coastal environmental conditions on building materials of The Roman Theater at the archaeological site of Sabratha, Libya}, journal = {Yearbook of the General Union of Archaeologists}, volume = {14}, number = {14}, pages = {288-323}, abstract = {Sabratha's port was established, perhaps about 500 BC, as a Phoenican trading-post that served as a coastal outlet for the products of the African hinterland.The Phoenicians gave it the Lybico-Berber name 'Sbrt'n. Sabratha became part of the short-lived Numidian   Kingdom of Massinissa before being Romanized and rebuilt in the 2nd and 3rd centuries AD. The Emperor   Septimus Severus was born nearby in Lebtis Magna, and Sabratha reached its monumental peak during the rule of the Severus. The city was badly damaged by earthquakes during the 4th century, particularly the quake of AD 365. It was rebuilt on a more modest scale by governors. Besides its magnificent late 3rd century theatre that retains its three-storey architectural backdrop 'The Roman theater at Sabratha in Libya is today one of the most impressive Roman monuments in North Africa. The Sabratha Theater is distinctive for its sculptured pulpit, which is decorated with a variety of mythological, historical, and genre scenes. A UNESCO placed the site in its "World Heritage List" The research aim to study the material building which used in the theatre such as limestone's, marbles and mortars, and effects of coastal environmental conditions which collapsing, disintegration and damage it by using analysis, investigations and materials tests such as XRD, XRF, PM, and SEM to identification of elements and minerals composition and its alteration. Physio-mechanical properties of building materials was also evaluated}, ISSN = {2682-3802}, DOI = {10.21608/cguaa.2011.35625}, url = {https://cguaa.journals.ekb.eg/article_35625.html}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1194, author = {Abdela, Nejash and Jilo, Kula}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Health: A Review}, journal = {Global Veterinaria}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {419-424}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5829/idosi.gv.2016.16.05.10370}, url = {https://www.idosi.org/gv/gv16(5)16/2.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1195, author = {Abdussalam, Auwal F and Monaghan, Andrew J and Steinhoff, Daniel F and Dukic, Vanja M and Hayden, Mary H and Hopson, Thomas M and Thornes, John E and Leckebusch, Gregor C}, title = {The impact of climate change on meningitis in Northwest Nigeria: An assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations}, journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {371–379}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00068.1}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1196, author = {Abel, Guy J. and Brottrager, Michael and Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus and Muttarak, Raya}, title = {Climate, conflict and forced migration}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {54}, pages = {239-249}, keywords = {Asylum seeker Climate change Conflict Endogenous selection Forced migration Gravity model Refugee Simultaneous equations SPEI}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1197, author = {Abera, Asmamaw and Friberg, Johan and Isaxon, Christina and Jerrett, Michael and Malmqvist, Ebba and Sjöström, Cheryl and Taj, Tahir and Vargas, Ana Maria}, title = {Air Quality in Africa: Public Health Implications}, journal = {Annual Review of Public Health}, volume = {42}, number = {1}, pages = {193-210}, keywords = {Africa,air pollution,public health,urbanization}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-100119-113802}, url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-100119-113802}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1198, author = {Abidoye, B. O. and Odusola, A. F.}, title = {Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis}, journal = {Journal of African Economies}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {277-301}, ISSN = {0963-8024 1464-3723}, DOI = {10.1093/jae/eju033}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/jae/article-pdf/24/2/277/2224143/eju033.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1199, author = {Abiodun, Gbenga J. and Njabo, Kevin Y. and Witbooi, Peter J. and Adeola, Abiodun M. and Fuller, Trevon L. and Okosun, Kazeem O. and Makinde, Olusola S. and Botai, Joel O.}, title = {Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Environmental and Public Health}, volume = {2018}, pages = {3143950}, ISSN = {1687-9805}, DOI = {10.1155/2018/3143950}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3143950}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1200, author = {Abiona, Olukorede}, title = {Adverse effects of early life extreme precipitation shocks on short-term health and adulthood welfare outcomes}, journal = {Review of Development Economics}, volume = {21}, pages = {1229-1254}, DOI = {10.1111/rode.12310}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1201, author = {Abraham, J. O. and Hempson, G. P. and Staver, A. C.}, title = {Drought-response strategies of savanna herbivores}, journal = {Ecol Evol}, volume = {9}, number = {12}, pages = {7047-7056}, keywords = {diet switching drought drought refugia herbivory migration savanna}, ISSN = {2045-7758 (Print) 2045-7758 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1002/ece3.5270}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31380032}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1202, author = {Abutaleb, K.A.A and Mohammed, A.H.ES and Ahmed, M.H.M}, title = {Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaption Measures for Egypt’s Nile Delta}, journal = {Earth Systems and Environment}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {183-192}, ISSN = {2509-9426 2509-9434}, DOI = {10.1007/s41748-018-0047-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-018-0047-9}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1203, author = {Acevedo, M. and Pixley, K. and Zinyengere, N. and Meng, S. and Tufan, H. and Cichy, K. and Bizikova, L. and Isaacs, K. and Ghezzi-Kopel, K. and Porciello, J.}, title = {A scoping review of adoption of climate-resilient crops by small-scale producers in low- and middle-income countries}, journal = {Nat Plants}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {1231-1241}, keywords = {*Acclimatization *Climate Change Crops, Agricultural/*physiology *Developing Countries Humans Income}, ISSN = {2055-0278 (Electronic) 2055-0278 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/s41477-020-00783-z}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33051616}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1204, author = {Acevedo, S. and Mrkaic, M. and Novta, N. and Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. and Pugacheva, E. and Topalova, P.}, title = {The effects of weather shocks on economic activity: How can low-income countries cope?}, booktitle = {World Economic Outlook, October 2017 : Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges}, editor = {IMF}, publisher = {International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.}, address = {New York}, pages = {117-183}, DOI = {10.5089/9781484312490.081}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @techreport{RN1205, author = {Adams, L.}, title = {Unlocking the potential of enhanced rainfed agriculture}, institution = {SIWI}, url = {https://www.siwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Unlocking-the-potential-of-rainfed-agriculture-2018-FINAL.pdf }, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1206, author = {Adamu, Baba and Ndi, Humphrey Ngala}, title = {Changing trends in water sources and related pathologies in small to medium size African cities}, journal = {GeoJournal}, volume = {83}, number = {4}, pages = {885-896}, ISSN = {0343-2521 1572-9893}, DOI = {10.1007/s10708-017-9808-5}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1207, author = {Addaney, Michael}, title = {Strengthening Africa’s Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: African Union Law and Implications of China’s Belt and Road Policy}, booktitle = {Climate Change, Hazards and Adaptation Options}, editor = {Filho, Walter Leal and Nagy, Gustavo J. and Borga, Marco and Muñoz, Pastor David Chávez and Magnuszewski, Artur }, series = {Climate Change Management}, publisher = {Springer Nature }, address = {Switzerland AG}, pages = {481-503}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_25}, year = {2020}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1208, author = {Adegun, O. B. and Adedeji, Y. M. D.}, title = {Review of economic and environmental benefits of earthen materials for housing in Africa}, journal = {Frontiers of Architectural Research}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {519-528}, keywords = {Housing Building materials Sustainability Energy Thermal comfort, Africa}, ISSN = {2095-2635}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foar.2017.08.003}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095263517300547}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1209, author = {Adekiya, Tayo Alex and Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo and Oyinloye, Babatunji Emmanuel and Okosun, Kazeem Oare and Kappo, Abidemi Paul}, title = {The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {181}, keywords = {*Biomphalaria spp. *Bulinus spp. *Schistosomiasis *cercariae *climate change *sub-Saharan Africa Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology Animals Cell Cycle/*physiology *Climate Change *Communicable Disease Control Host-Parasite Interactions Humans Incidence Schistosoma haematobium/*physiology Schistosomiasis/*epidemiology/*transmission Snails/*physiology}, ISSN = {1660-4601 1661-7827}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph17010181}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31887979 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6981654/}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1210, author = {Adelekan, Ibidun and Fregene, Tosan}, title = {Vulnerability of artisanal fishing communities to flood risks in coastal southwest Nigeria}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {322-338}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2014.951011}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2014.951011}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1211, author = {Adelekan, Ibidun O.}, title = {Vulnerability to wind hazards in the traditional city of Ibadan, Nigeria}, journal = {Environment and Urbanization}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {597-617}, abstract = {This paper examines vulnerability to recent occurrences of wind hazards in the context of changing patterns of urbanization, land use, land cover and wind climate in Ibadan, the largest traditional urban centre in sub-Saharan Africa. The period 1989?2008 shows a significant increase in maximum wind gusts, with the latter half of the period, 1998?2008, recording higher mean maximum wind gusts and more frequent windstorms with peak gusts of 48 knots or more. Following a major windstorm event in March 2008, an assessment of the windstorm-induced damage and the vulnerability characteristics of residents of 69 wind-damaged houses in eight districts located in Ibadan?s high density core area and older suburbs was undertaken. This was based largely on primary data from interviews conducted with residents of windstorm-affected districts and with key informants in urban planning institutions. The study provides insights into changing climate risk patterns and emerging vulnerabilities of inner-city residents of Ibadan. The role of local institutions in shaping vulnerability to climate risks was also examined.}, ISSN = {0956-2478}, DOI = {10.1177/0956247812454247}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247812454247}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1212, author = {Adelekan, Ibidun O.}, title = {Flood risk management in the coastal city of Lagos, Nigeria}, journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {255-264}, ISSN = {1753318X}, DOI = {10.1111/jfr3.12179}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1213, author = {Adeniran, Adegboyega B. and Daniell, Katherine A.}, title = {Transaqua: power, political change and the transnational politics of a water megaproject}, journal = {International Journal of Water Resources Development}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {234-255}, ISSN = {0790-0627 1360-0648}, DOI = {10.1080/07900627.2020.1747408}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1214, author = {Adenle, Ademola A. and Ford, James D. and Morton, John and Twomlow, Stephen and Alverson, Keith and Cattaneo, Andrea and Cervigni, Rafaello and Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep and Huq, Saleemul and Helfgott, Ariella and Ebinger, Jane O.}, title = {Managing Climate Change Risks in Africa - A Global Perspective}, journal = {Ecological Economics}, volume = {141}, pages = {190-201}, abstract = {Africa is projected to experience diverse and severe impacts of climate change. The need to adapt is increasingly recognized, from the community level to regional and national governments to the donor community, yet adaptation faces many constraints, particularly in low income settings. This study documents and examines the challenges facing adaptation in Africa, drawing upon semi-structured interviews (n=337) with stakeholders including high-level stakeholders, continent-wide and across scales: in national government and UN agencies, academia, donors, non-governmental organizations, farmers and extension officers. Four key concerns about adaptation emerge: i) Climate data, scenarios and impacts models are insufficient for supporting adaptation, particularly as they relate to food systems and rural livelihoods; ii) The adaptation response to-date has been limited, fragmented, divorced from national planning processes, and with limited engagement with local expertise; iii) Adaptation policies and programs are too narrowly focused on explicit responses to climate change rather than responses to climate variability or broader development issues; and iv) Adaptation finance is insufficient, and procedures for accessing it present challenges to governments capacities. As a response to these concerns, we propose the 4-Cs framework which places adaptation for Africa at the center of climate projections, climate education, climate governance and climate finance, with corresponding responsibilities for government and non-government actors.}, keywords = {Managing climate change risks Adaptation Africa}, ISSN = {0921-8009}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.06.004}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916309119}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1215, author = {Adenle, Ademola A. and Wedig, Karin and Azadi, Hossein}, title = {Sustainable agriculture and food security in Africa: The role of innovative technologies and international organizations}, journal = {Technology in Society}, volume = {58}, pages = {101143}, abstract = {This paper argues that input-intensity and a lack of democratic control over the conditions for advanced technology adoption indicates that low-tech approaches, despite generating lower yields, may be best positioned to improve food security as a basis for sustainable agriculture. Advanced technology adoption by smallholders can become a choice, dependent on the containment of ecological risks, rather than a survivalist strategy. We examine research led by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research and make clear that public-sector research and the international organizations can significantly contribute to the adoption of evidence-based policies that support context-specific combinations of low- and high-tech approaches.}, keywords = {Sustainable agriculture Food security Advanced technologies Public-private partnerships International organizations Sub-Saharan Africa}, ISSN = {0160-791X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2019.05.007}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X17302920}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1216, author = {Adeola, Abiodun Morakinyo and Botai, Joel Ondego and Mukarugwiza Olwoch, Jane and de W. Rautenbach, Hannes C. J. and Adisa, Omolola Mayowa and de Jager, Christiaan and Botai, Christina M. and Aaron, Mabuza}, title = {Predicting malaria cases using remotely sensed environmental variables in Nkomazi, South Africa}, journal = {Geospatial Health}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, DOI = {10.4081/gh.2019.676}, url = {https://geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/676}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1217, author = {Adeola, Abiodun M. and Botai, Joel O. and Rautenbach, Hannes and Adisa, Omolola M. and Ncongwane, Katlego P. and Botai, Christina M. and Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C.}, title = {Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {11}, pages = {1360}, keywords = {*climate *environment *malaria *morbidity Cities/epidemiology *Climate Female Humans Incidence Malaria/*epidemiology Male Morbidity Regression Analysis Retrospective Studies Seasons South Africa/epidemiology Temperature}, ISSN = {1660-4601 1661-7827}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph14111360}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29117114 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5707999/}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1218, author = {Adepoju, Aderanti}, title = {Migrants and Refugees in Africa}, booktitle = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics}, ISBN = {9780190228637}, DOI = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.723}, year = {2019}, type = {Book Section} } @techreport{RN1219, author = {Adetula, Victor A. O. and Bereketeab, Redie and Jaiyebo, Olugbemi}, title = {Regional economic communities and peacebuilding in Africa : the experiences of ECOWAS and IGAD}, institution = {Nordiska Afrikainstitutet}, note = {2020-05-11T14:54:28.406+02:00}, number = {978-91-7106-798-2 (ISBN) 978-91-7106-799-9 (ISBN) 978-91-7106-800-2 (ISBN) 16546709 (ISSN)}, month = {2016}, abstract = {African states have responded to the challenges of the post-Cold War international system mostly by collectively promoting subregional and continental-wide initiatives in conflict resolution and peacebuilding. Admittedly, the existence of many violent conflicts in Africa, as well as their ‘domino’ effects at thesub-regional level, contributed significantly to the growing desire for collective security systems and conflict management mechanisms. The broadening of the role and functions of African regional organisations to include responsibility for peacebuilding and conflict management generally adds credence to the efficacy of regional integration. Many issues, however, present themselves in the engagement of RECs with the peacebuilding process in Africa. Although primarily set up to promote economic integration, Africa’s RECs have increasingly taken up a prominent role in conflict resolution and peace support operations, as evident in the recent peace processes in Burundi, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Mali, Congo DRC, Sudan, and South Sudan, among others. In spite of the challenges they face, RECs are capable of playing important roles with regard to peace mediation, peacekeeping and peacebuilding.}, keywords = {Regional organizations Economic relations Regional integration Regional cooperation Regional security Post-conflict reconstruction Peacebuilding Conflict management Recommendations West Africa Horn of Africa Political Science Statsvetenskap}, DOI = {http://nai.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1068566/PREVIEW01.jpg}, url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:nai:diva-2103}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @inbook{RN1220, author = {Adeyeye, Babatunde and Amodu, Lanre and Oscar, Odiboh and Omojola, Oladokun and Adesina, Evaristus and Ben-Enukora, Charity Amaka}, title = {A SWOT analysis of indigenous language use in agricultural radio programming in Nigeria}, booktitle = {Emerging Trends in Indigenous Language Media, Communication, Gender, and Health}, editor = {Adesina, Evaristus and Afolabi, Oluwafolafunmi and Asogwa, Nkechi Chinedu and Falobi, Funmi and Ifeanyichukwu, Aloysius Chukwuebuka and Kadiri, Kehinde and Mpofu, Philip and Ogunyombo, Oludare and Onyenankeya, Kevin and Oredola, Opeyemi and Owolabi, Toyosi and Oyero, Olusola}, publisher = {IGI Global}, chapter = {10}, pages = {188-209}, ISBN = {9781799820918}, DOI = {10.4018/978-1-7998-2091-8.ch010}, year = {2020}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1221, author = {Adger, William Neil and de Campos, Ricardo Safra and Codjoe, Samuel Nii Ardey and Siddiqui, Tasneem and Hazra, Sugata and Das, Shouvik and Adams, Helen and Gavonel, Maria Franco and Mortreux, Colette and Abu, Mumuni}, title = {Perceived environmental risks and insecurity reduce future migration intentions in hazardous migration source areas}, journal = {One Earth}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {146-157}, ISSN = {2590-3330}, DOI = {10.1016/j.oneear.2020.12.009}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.12.009}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1222, author = {Adhikari, Bhim and Safaee Chalkasra, Lolita Shaila}, title = {Mobilizing private sector investment for climate action: enhancing ambition and scaling up implementation}, journal = {Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment}, pages = {1-18}, ISSN = {2043-0795}, DOI = {10.1080/20430795.2021.1917929}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2021.1917929}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1223, author = {Adhikari, Umesh and Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan and Woznicki, Sean A.}, title = {Climate change and eastern Africa: a review of impact on major crops}, journal = {Food and Energy Security}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {110-132}, abstract = {Abstract Global warming has become one of the major challenges in maintaining global food security. This paper reviews the impacts of climate change on fourteen strategic crops for eight sub-Saharan Africa countries. Climate change is projected to increase median temperature by 1.4?5.5°C and median precipitation by ?2% to 20% by the end of the 21st century. However, large levels of uncertainty exist with temporal and spatial variability of rainfall events. The impact of climate change on crop yields in the region is largely negative. Among the grain crops, wheat is reported as the most vulnerable crop, for which up to 72% of the current yield is projected to decline. For other grain crops, such as maize, rice and soybean, up to 45% yield reductions are expected by the end of this century. Two grain crops, millet and sorghum, are more resilient to climate change for which projected impacts on crop yields are <20%. Root crops, such as sweet potato, potato and cassava are projected to be less affected than the grain crops with changes to crop yields ranging from about ?15% to 10%. For the two major export crops, tea and coffee, up to 40% yield loss is expected due to the reduction in suitable areas caused by temperature increase. Similar loss of suitable areas is also expected for banana and sugarcane production, however, this reduction is due to rainfall variability in lowland areas. Other crops such as cotton and sugarcane are projected to be more susceptible to precipitation variation that will vary significantly in the region. In order to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors, the development of small-scale irrigation systems and water harvesting structures seems promising, however, affordability of such measures remains a key issue.}, keywords = {Agriculture East Africa feed the future food security}, ISSN = {2048-3694}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.61}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1224, author = {Adjei, Victor and Kyerematen, Rosina}, title = {Impacts of Changing Climate on Maize Production in the Transitional Zone of Ghana}, journal = {American Journal of Climate Change}, volume = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {14}, DOI = {10.4236/ajcc.2018.73028}, url = {//www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=87284}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1225, author = {Adom, Kwame}, title = {Beyond the Marginalization Thesis: An Examination of the Motivations of Informal Entrepreneurs in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {The International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {113-125}, ISSN = {1465-7503 2043-6882}, DOI = {10.5367/ijei.2014.0144}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1226, author = {Adu-Prah, Samuel and Kofi Tetteh, Emmanuel}, title = {Spatiotemporal analysis of climate variability impacts on malaria prevalence in Ghana}, journal = {Applied Geography}, volume = {60}, pages = {266-273}, ISSN = {01436228}, DOI = {10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.10.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622814002471}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1227, author = {Adzawla, W. and Azumah, S. B. and Anani, P. Y. and Donkoh, S. A.}, title = {Gender perspectives of climate change adaptation in two selected districts of Ghana}, journal = {Heliyon}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {e02854}, keywords = {Adaptation Climate change Environmental analysis Environmental assessment Environmental economics Environmental impact assessment Environmental risk assessment Environmental science Gender Ghana}, ISSN = {2405-8440 (Print) 2405-8440}, DOI = {10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02854}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6861575/pdf/main.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1228, author = {Adzawla, William and Baumüller, Heike and Donkoh, Samuel A. and Serra, Renata}, title = {Effects of climate change and livelihood diversification on the gendered productivity gap in Northern Ghana}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, pages = {743-755}, ISSN = {1756-5529 1756-5537}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2019.1689093}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1229, author = {AfDB}, title = {The Africa Infrastructure Develoment Index 2018}, url = {https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Economic_Brief_-_The_Africa_Infrastructure_Development_Index.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1230, author = {AfDB}, title = {African Economic Outlook 2018}, url = {https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/document/african-economic-outlook-aoe-2018-99877}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1231, author = {AfDB}, title = {Multinational Appraisal Report for Programme for Integrated Development and Adaptation to Climate Change (PIDACC)}, institution = {African Development Bank (AfDB)}, url = {https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/document/multinational-programme-for-integrated-development-and-adaptation-to-climate-change-in-the-niger-basin-pidacc-appraisal-report-109273}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1232, author = {AfDB}, title = {Analysis of adaptation components of Africa's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)}, institution = {African Development Bank}, url = {https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Generic-Documents/Analysis_of_Adaptation_Components_in_African_NDCs_2019.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1233, author = {AfDB}, title = {African Development Report 2015 - Growth, Poverty and Inequality Nexus: Overcoming Barriers to Sustainable Development}, institution = {African Development Bank}, url = {https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/document/african-development-report-2015-growth-poverty-and-inequality-nexus-overcoming-barriers-to-sustainable-development-89715}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1234, author = {Afifi, Tamer}, title = {Economic or Environmental Migration? The Push Factors in Niger}, journal = {International Migration}, volume = {49}, number = {s1}, pages = {e95-e124}, ISSN = {0020-7985}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2010.00644.x}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2010.00644.x}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1235, author = {Africa Adaptation Initiative}, title = {Africa State of Adaptation Report}, publisher = {Africa Adaptation Initiative (AAI)}, pages = {32}, url = {https://www.africaadaptationinitiative.org/assets/SoAR%20-%20Discussion%20Paper%20Sep%202018%20(Eng-a).pdf)}, year = {2018}, type = {Discussion Forum} } @book{RN1236, author = {African Development Bank and OECD and United Nations Development Programme}, title = {African Economic Outlook 2016}, series = {Sustainable Cities and Structural Transformation}, pages = {400}, ISBN = {9789264256477}, DOI = {doi:https://doi.org/10.1787/aeo-2016-en}, url = {https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/publication/aeo-2016-en}, year = {2016}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1237, author = {Agier, Lydiane and Deroubaix, Adrien and Martiny, Nadège and Yaka, Pascal and Djibo, A and Broutin, Hélène}, title = {Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Society Interface}, volume = {10}, number = {79}, pages = {20120814}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2012.0814}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1238, author = {Agrawal, Arun and Costella, C. and Kaur, N. and Tenzing, J. and Shakya, C. and Norton, A.}, title = {Climate resilience through social protection. Background paper to the 2019 report of the Global Commission on Adaptation}, url = {www.gca.org.}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1239, author = {Agrawala, Shardul and Carraro, Maëlis}, title = {Assessing the Role of Microfinance in Fostering Adaptation to Climate Change}, journal = {Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Working Papers}, DOI = {10.2139/ssrn.1646883}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1240, author = {Aguilar, E. and Aziz Barry, A. and Brunet, M. and Ekang, L. and Fernandes, A. and Massoukina, M. and Mbah, J. and Mhanda, A. and do Nascimento, D. J. and Peterson, T. C. and Thamba Umba, O. and Tomou, M. and Zhang, X.}, title = {Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955–2006}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, volume = {114}, number = {D2}, abstract = {Understanding how extremes are changing globally, regionally, and locally is an important first step for planning appropriate adaptation measures, as changes in extremes have major impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's synthesis of global extremes was not able to say anything about western central Africa, as no analysis of the region was available nor was there an adequate internationally exchanged long-term daily data set available to use for analysis of extremes. This paper presents the first analysis of extremes in this climatically important region along with analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe. As per many other parts of the world, the analysis shows a decrease in cold extremes and an increase in warm extremes. However, while the majority of the analyzed world has shown an increase in heavy precipitation over the last half century, central Africa showed a decrease. Furthermore, the companion analysis of Guinea Conakry and Zimbabwe showed no significant increases.}, keywords = {climate change central Africa temperature extremes precipitation extremes data archaeology}, ISSN = {0148-0227}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011010}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011010}, year = {2009}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1241, author = {Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús and Oliveras, Imma and Rifai, Sami and Fauset, Sophie and Adu-Bredu, Stephen and Affum-Baffoe, Kofi and Baker, Timothy R. and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Gvozdevaite, Agne and Hubau, Wannes and Kraft, Nathan J. B. and Lewis, Simon L. and Moore, Sam and Niinemets, Ülo and Peprah, Theresa and Phillips, Oliver L. and Ziemińska, Kasia and Enquist, Brian and Malhi, Yadvinder}, title = {Drier tropical forests are susceptible to functional changes in response to a long-term drought}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {855-865}, abstract = {Abstract Climatic changes have profound effects on the distribution of biodiversity, but untangling the links between climatic change and ecosystem functioning is challenging, particularly in high diversity systems such as tropical forests. Tropical forests may also show different responses to a changing climate, with baseline climatic conditions potentially inducing differences in the strength and timing of responses to droughts. Trait-based approaches provide an opportunity to link functional composition, ecosystem function and environmental changes. We demonstrate the power of such approaches by presenting a novel analysis of long-term responses of different tropical forest to climatic changes along a rainfall gradient. We explore how key ecosystem's biogeochemical properties have shifted over time as a consequence of multi-decadal drying. Notably, we find that drier tropical forests have increased their deciduous species abundance and generally changed more functionally than forests growing in wetter conditions, suggesting an enhanced ability to adapt ecologically to a drying environment.}, keywords = {Drying climate ecosystem functioning plant traits tropical forests West Africa}, ISSN = {1461-023X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13243}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13243}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1242, author = {Agusto, F. B. and Gumel, A. B. and Parham, P. E.}, title = {Qualitative assessment of the role of temperature variations on malaria transmission dynamics}, journal = {J. Biol. Syst.}, volume = {23}, number = {04}, pages = {1550030}, ISSN = {0218-3390}, DOI = {10.1142/S0218339015500308}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218339015500308 http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0218339015500308 https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/s0218339015500308 https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Abba_Gumel/publication/283671020_QUALITATIVE_ASSESSMENT_OF_THE_ROLE_OF_TEMPERATURE_VARIATIONS_ON_MALARIA_TRANSMISSION_DYNAMICS/links/5661f34908ae15e7462ec24e.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1243, author = {Agyeman, Yaw Boakye}, title = {Ecotourism as an Adaptation Strategy for Mitigating Climate Change Impacts on Local Communities Around Protected Areas in Ghana}, booktitle = {Handbook of Climate Change Resilience}, editor = {Filho, Walter Leal }, publisher = {Springer, Cham}, address = {Switzerland}, chapter = {Chapter 159-1}, pages = {537-555}, ISBN = { 978-3-319-93336-8 }, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93336-8_159}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71025-9_159-1}, year = {2019}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1244, author = {Ahdoot, Samantha and Pacheco, Susan E. and HEALTH, THE COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL}, title = {Global Climate Change and Children’s Health}, journal = {Pediatrics}, pages = {peds.2015-3233}, DOI = {10.1542/peds.2015-3233}, url = {https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2015/10/21/peds.2015-3233.full.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1245, author = {Ahmadalipour, Ali and Moradkhani, Hamid}, title = {Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {117}, pages = {215-225}, abstract = {Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951–2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006–2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8–20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3–7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region.}, keywords = {Climate change Mortality Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CORDEX RCM Wet-bulb temperature}, ISSN = {0160-4120}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018302812}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1246, author = {Ahmadalipour, A. and Moradkhani, H. and Castelletti, A. and Magliocca, N.}, title = {Future drought risk in Africa: Integrating vulnerability, climate change, and population growth}, journal = {Sci Total Environ}, volume = {662}, pages = {672-686}, keywords = {Africa Climate change Drought Population growth Risk Vulnerability}, ISSN = {1879-1026 (Electronic) 0048-9697 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.278}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30703725}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1247, author = {Ahmed, Abubakari and Lawson, Elaine T. and Mensah, Adelina and Gordon, Chris and Padgham, Jon}, title = {Adaptation to climate change or non-climatic stressors in semi-arid regions? Evidence of gender differentiation in three agrarian districts of Ghana}, journal = {Environmental Development}, volume = {20}, pages = {45-58}, abstract = {With the increasing impacts of climate change in Africa, a relationship between rainfall and yields in semi-arid Ghana has been observed. Drawing insights from three agrarian societies in the semi-arid region of Ghana using qualitative research methods, the study reports how people currently deal with climate variability as insight on how they will deal with climate change in the future. The findings indicate wide gender inequality in decision making processes and land access resulting from patriarchal local customs and institutions that shape adaptation responses of different vulnerable social groups to climatic or non-climatic stressors. Different adaptation practices of groups indicate that both climatic and non-climatic stressors shape the kind of responses that groups adopt. From the current adaptation practices, efforts to improve adaptation to future climate change at local levels must give attention to the nexus of both climatic and non-climatic stressors, gender, differential vulnerabilities and other subjectivities that produce a particular adaptation practice in a given place.}, keywords = {Adaptation Agrarian Climate change Gender Ghana Semi-arid}, ISSN = {2211-4645}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2016.08.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211464516300884}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1248, author = {Ahmed, Shamseddin Musa}, title = {Impacts of drought, food security policy and climate change on performance of irrigation schemes in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Sudan}, journal = {Agricultural Water Management}, volume = {232}, ISSN = {03783774}, DOI = {10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106064}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1249, author = {Aich, V. and Liersch, S. and Vetter, T. and Huang, S. and Tecklenburg, J. and Hoffmann, P. and Koch, H. and Fournet, S. and Krysanova, V. and Müller, E. N. and Hattermann, F. F.}, title = {Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {1305-1321}, ISSN = {1607-7938}, DOI = {10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1250, author = {Ainsworth, Elizabeth A. and Long, Stephen P.}, title = {30 years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE): What have we learned about future crop productivity and its potential for adaptation?}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {1}, pages = {27-49}, abstract = {Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) allows open-air elevation of [CO2 ] without altering the microclimate. Its scale uniquely supports simultaneous study from physiology and yield to soil processes and disease. In 2005 we summarized results of then 28 published observations by meta-analysis. Subsequent studies have combined FACE with temperature, drought, ozone, and nitrogen treatments. Here, we summarize the results of now almost 250 observations, spanning 14 sites and five continents. Across 186 independent studies of 18 C3 crops, elevation of [CO2 ] by ca. 200 ppm caused a ca. 18% increase in yield under non-stress conditions. Legumes and root crops showed a greater increase and cereals less. Nitrogen deficiency reduced the average increase to 10%, as did warming by ca. 2°C. Two conclusions of the 2005 analysis were that C4 crops would not be more productive in elevated [CO2 ], except under drought, and that yield responses of C3 crops were diminished by nitrogen deficiency and wet conditions. Both stand the test of time. Further studies of maize and sorghum showed no yield increase, except in drought, while soybean productivity was negatively affected by early growing season wet conditions. Subsequent study showed reduced levels of nutrients, notably Zn and Fe in most crops, and lower nitrogen and protein in the seeds of non-leguminous crops. Testing across crop germplasm revealed sufficient variation to maintain nutrient content under rising [CO2 ]. A strong correlation of yield response under elevated [CO2 ] to genetic yield potential in both rice and soybean was observed. Rice cultivars with the highest yield potential showed a 35% yield increase in elevated [CO2 ] compared to an average of 14%. Future FACE experiments have the potential to develop cultivars and management strategies for co-promoting sustainability and productivity under future elevated [CO2 ].}, keywords = {Carbon Dioxide Photosynthesis}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {10.1111/gcb.15375}, url = {http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/33135850 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15375}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1251, author = {Ajayi, Abraham and Smith, Stella I}, title = {Recurrent cholera epidemics in Africa: which way forward? A literature review}, journal = {Infection}, volume = {47}, number = {3}, pages = {341-349}, ISSN = {0300-8126}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s15010-018-1186-5}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1252, author = {Ajibade, L. T. and Eche, J. O.}, title = {Indigenous knowledge for climate change adaptation in Nigeria}, booktitle = {Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa}, editor = {Mafongoya, P. L. and Ajayi, O. C.}, publisher = {CTA}, address = {Wageningen, The Netherlands}, pages = {316}, url = {https://publications.cta.int/media/publications/downloads/2009_PDF.pdf#page=219}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @phdthesis{RN1253, author = {Akello, Susan}, title = {Effects of floods on students access to secondary education in Nyando district, Kisumu county, Kenya}, university = {University of Nairobi}, url = {http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/76382/Akello_Effects%20of%20floods%20on%20students%20access%20to%20secondary%20education%20in%20Nyando%20district,%20Kisumu%20county,%20Kenya.pdf?sequence=3}, year = {2014}, type = {Thesis} } @article{RN1254, author = {Akinsanola, A. A. and Zhou, Wen}, title = {Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {2017-2028}, abstract = {Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976–2005, future changes (2070–2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-018-4238-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4238-8}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1255, author = {Akintola, Shehu Latunji and Fakoya, Kafayat Adetoun}, title = {Small ‑ scale fisheries in the context of traditional post ‑ harvest practice and the quest for food and nutritional security in Nigeria}, journal = {Agriculture & Food Security}, volume = {6}, number = {34}, pages = {1-17}, keywords = {Food security Gender Nigeria Nutrient Policy Small-scale fisheries Smoking Sun-drying}, DOI = {10.1186/s40066-017-0110-z}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1256, author = {Akinyi, Devinia Princess and Ng’ang’a, Stanley Karanja and Girvetz, Evan Hartunian}, title = {Trade-offs and synergies of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review}, journal = {Regional Sustainability}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {130-143}, keywords = {Climate change Adaptation strategy Trade-offs Synergies Sub-Saharan Africa}, ISSN = {2666-660X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2021.05.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666660X21000190}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1257, author = {Aklin, Michaël and Bayer, Patrick and Harish, S.P. and Urpelainen, Johannes}, title = {Escaping the Energy Poverty Trap When and How Governments Power the Lives of the Poor}, publisher = {MIT Press}, address = {Cambridge, MA }, ISBN = {9780262535861}, year = {2018}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1258, author = {Akpan, Godwin E. and Adepoju, Kayode A. and Oladosu, Olakunle R. and Adelabu, Samuel A.}, title = {Dominant malaria vector species in Nigeria: Modelling potential distribution of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings with MaxEnt}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {13}, number = {10}, pages = {e0204233}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0204233}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0204233}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1259, author = {Akresh, Richard and Verwimp, Philip and Bundervoet, Tom}, title = {Civil War, Crop Failure, and Child Stunting in Rwanda}, journal = {Economic Development and Cultural Change}, volume = {59}, number = {4}, pages = {778-810}, DOI = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/660003}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @phdthesis{RN1260, author = {Alam, Syed Ashraful}, title = {Use of biomass fuels in the brick-making industries of Sudan: Implications for deforestation and greenhouse gas emission}, university = {University of Helsinki, Finland}, url = {https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/14916232.pdf}, year = {2006}, type = {Thesis} } @article{RN1261, author = {Albrecht, Tamee R. and Crootof, Arica and Scott, Christopher A.}, title = {The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {4}, pages = {043002}, abstract = {The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is rapidly expanding in scholarly literature and policy settings as a novel way to address complex resource and development challenges. The nexus approach aims to identify tradeoffs and synergies of water, energy, and food systems, internalize social and environmental impacts, and guide development of cross-sectoral policies. However, while the WEF nexus offers a promising conceptual approach, the use of WEF nexus methods to systematically evaluate water, energy, and food interlinkages or support development of socially and politically-relevant resource policies has been limited. This paper reviews WEF nexus methods to provide a knowledge base of existing approaches and promote further development of analytical methods that align with nexus thinking. The systematic review of 245 journal articles and book chapters reveals that (a) use of specific and reproducible methods for nexus assessment is uncommon (less than one-third); (b) nexus methods frequently fall short of capturing interactions among water, energy, and food—the very linkages they conceptually purport to address; (c) assessments strongly favor quantitative approaches (nearly three-quarters); (d) use of social science methods is limited (approximately one-quarter); and (e) many nexus methods are confined to disciplinary silos—only about one-quarter combine methods from diverse disciplines and less than one-fifth utilize both quantitative and qualitative approaches. To help overcome these limitations, we derive four key features of nexus analytical tools and methods—innovation, context, collaboration, and implementation—from the literature that reflect WEF nexus thinking. By evaluating existing nexus analytical approaches based on these features, we highlight 18 studies that demonstrate promising advances to guide future research. This paper finds that to address complex resource and development challenges, mixed-methods and transdisciplinary approaches are needed that incorporate social and political dimensions of water, energy, and food; utilize multiple and interdisciplinary approaches; and engage stakeholders and decision-makers.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c6}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c6}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1262, author = {Alderman, Harold and Hoddinott, John and Kinsey, Bill}, title = {Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition}, journal = {Oxford Economic Papers}, volume = {58}, number = {3}, pages = {450-474}, ISSN = {0030-7653, 0030-7653}, DOI = {10.1093/oep/gpl008}, url = {http://oep.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/doi/10.1093/oep/gpl008}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1263, author = {Aleman, Julie C. and Blarquez, Olivier and Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie and Bremond, Laurent and Favier, Charly}, title = {Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {1-12}, ISSN = {2045-2322}, DOI = {10.1038/srep41393}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/srep41393}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1264, author = {Aleman, Julie C. and Jarzyna, Marta A. and Staver, A. Carla}, title = {Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1990}, journal = {Nature Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {26-33}, ISSN = {2397-334X}, DOI = {10.1038/s41559-017-0406-1}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1265, author = {Alemayehu, Arragaw and Bewket, Woldeamlak}, title = {Smallholder farmers’ coping and adaptation strategies to climate change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia}, journal = {Local Environment}, volume = {22}, number = {7}, pages = {825-839}, keywords = {Climate change Ethiopia North Shewa adaptation coping}, DOI = {10.1080/13549839.2017.1290058}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1290058}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1266, author = {Alemu, Kassahun and Worku, Alemayehu and Berhane, Yemane and Kumie, Abera}, title = {Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia}, journal = {Malar. J.}, volume = {13}, pages = {223}, ISSN = {1475-2875}, DOI = {10.1186/1475-2875-13-223}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-13-223 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24903061 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4072611 https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1475-2875-13-223}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1267, author = {Alexander, M.}, title = {Pandemics, climate change, and disability related to SCI}, journal = {Spinal Cord Ser Cases}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {36}, note = {Alexander, Marcalee eng Review England Spinal Cord Ser Cases. 2020 May 11;6(1):36. doi: 10.1038/s41394-020-0285-6.}, ISSN = {2058-6124 (Electronic) 2058-6124 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/s41394-020-0285-6}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32393774}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1268, author = {Alexander, Meghan and Dessai, Suraje}, title = {What can climate services learn from the broader services literature?}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {157}, number = {1}, pages = {133-149}, ISSN = {15731480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-019-02388-8}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1269, author = {Alfieri, Lorenzo and Bisselink, Berny and Dottori, Francesco and Naumann, Gustavo and de Roo, Ad and Salamon, Peter and Wyser, Klaus and Feyen, Luc}, title = {Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world}, journal = {Earth's Future}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {171-182}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485}, abstract = {Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.}, keywords = {flood risk flood frequency specific warming levels model agreement rcp 8.5 climate change}, ISSN = {2328-4277}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1270, author = {Aljawabra, F. and Nikolopoulou, M.}, title = {Thermal comfort in urban spaces: a cross-cultural study in the hot arid climate}, journal = {Int J Biometeorol}, volume = {62}, number = {10}, pages = {1901-1909}, keywords = {Africa, Northern Arizona *Cross-Cultural Comparison Hot Temperature Humans Japan North America Social Conditions Sweden *Thermosensing Culture Hot arid climate Outdoor thermal comfort Thermal adaptation Urban space}, ISSN = {0020-7128}, DOI = {10.1007/s00484-018-1592-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-018-1592-5}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1271, author = {Allan, Tony and Keulertz, Martin and Woertz, Eckart}, title = {The water–food–energy nexus: an introduction to nexus concepts and some conceptual and operational problems}, journal = {International Journal of Water Resources Development}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {301-311}, ISSN = {0790-0627 1360-0648}, DOI = {10.1080/07900627.2015.1029118}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1272, author = {Allard, Céline }, title = {The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa}, booktitle = {Regional Economic Outlook}, editor = {Robinson, David }, pages = {122}, ISBN = {9781475574463}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475574463.086}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1273, author = {Allen, T. and Murray, K. A. and Zambrana-Torrelio, C. and Morse, S. S. and Rondinini, C. and Di Marco, M. and Breit, N. and Olival, K. J. and Daszak, P.}, title = {Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases}, journal = {Nat Commun}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1124}, keywords = {Animals *Animals, Wild Area Under Curve Biodiversity Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology Demography Disease Reservoirs Forests Geography Global Health Humans Models, Theoretical Regression Analysis Risk Tropical Climate Zoonoses/*epidemiology}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-017-00923-8}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1274, author = {Alonso, Sergi and Chaccour, Carlos J. and Elobolobo, Eldo and Nacima, Amilcar and Candrinho, Baltazar and Saifodine, Abuchahama and Saute, Francisco and Robertson, Molly and Zulliger, Rose}, title = {The economic burden of malaria on households and the health system in a high transmission district of Mozambique}, journal = {Malaria Journal}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {360}, ISSN = {1475-2875}, DOI = {10.1186/s12936-019-2995-4}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2995-4}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1275, author = {Aloysius, Noel R. and Sheffield, Justin and Saiers, James E. and Li, Haibin and Wood, Eric F.}, title = {Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, volume = {121}, number = {1}, pages = {130-152}, keywords = {climate change precipitation air temperature central Africa CMIP5}, ISSN = {2169-897X}, DOI = {10.1002/2015JD023656}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023656}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1276, author = {Alsdorf, Douglas and Beighley, Ed and Laraque, Alain and Lee, Hyongki and Tshimanga, Raphael and O'Loughlin, Fiachra and Mahé, Gil and Dinga, Bienvenu and Moukandi, Guy and Spencer, Robert G. M.}, title = {Opportunities for hydrologic research in the Congo Basin}, journal = {Reviews of Geophysics}, volume = {54}, number = {2}, pages = {378-409}, ISSN = {8755-1209 1944-9208}, DOI = {10.1002/2016rg000517}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1277, author = {Altieri, Miguel A. and Nicholls, Clara I. and Henao, Alejandro and Lana, Marcos A.}, title = {Agroecology and the design of climate change-resilient farming systems}, journal = {Agronomy for Sustainable Development}, volume = {35}, number = {3}, pages = {869-890}, abstract = {Diverse, severe, and location-specific impacts on agricultural production are anticipated with climate change. The last IPCC report indicates that the rise of CO2 and associated “greenhouse” gases could lead to a 1.4 to 5.8 °C increase in global surface temperatures, with subsequent consequences on precipitation frequency and amounts. Temperature and water availability remain key factors in determining crop growth and productivity; predicted changes in these factors will lead to reduced crop yields. Climate-induced changes in insect pest, pathogen and weed population dynamics and invasiveness could compound such effects. Undoubtedly, climate- and weather-induced instability will affect levels of and access to food supply, altering social and economic stability and regional competiveness. Adaptation is considered a key factor that will shape the future severity of climate change impacts on food production. Changes that will not radically modify the monoculture nature of dominant agroecosystems may moderate negative impacts temporarily. The biggest and most durable benefits will likely result from more radical agroecological measures that will strengthen the resilience of farmers and rural communities, such as diversification of agroecosytems in the form of polycultures, agroforestry systems, and crop-livestock mixed systems accompanied by organic soil management, water conservation and harvesting, and general enhancement of agrobiodiversity. Traditional farming systems are repositories of a wealth of principles and measures that can help modern agricultural systems become more resilient to climatic extremes. Many of these agroecological strategies that reduce vulnerabilities to climate variability include crop diversification, maintaining local genetic diversity, animal integration, soil organic management, water conservation and harvesting, etc. Understanding the agroecological features that underlie the resilience of traditional agroecosystems is an urgent matter, as they can serve as the foundation for the design of adapted agricultural systems. Observations of agricultural performance after extreme climatic events (hurricanes and droughts) in the last two decades have revealed that resiliency to climate disasters is closely linked to farms with increased levels of biodiversity. Field surveys and results reported in the literature suggest that agroecosystems are more resilient when inserted in a complex landscape matrix, featuring adapted local germplasm deployed in diversified cropping systems managed with organic matter rich soils and water conservation-harvesting techniques. The identification of systems that have withstood climatic events recently or in the past and understanding the agroecological features of such systems that allowed them to resist and/or recover from extreme events is of increased urgency, as the derived resiliency principles and practices that underlie successful farms can be disseminated to thousands of farmers via Campesino a Campesino networks to scale up agroecological practices that enhance the resiliency of agroecosystems. The effective diffusion of agroecological technologies will largely determine how well and how fast farmers adapt to climate change.}, ISSN = {1773-0155}, DOI = {10.1007/s13593-015-0285-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-015-0285-2}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1278, author = {Alvar-Beltrán, Jorge and Dao, Abdalla and Dalla Marta, Anna and Heureux, Ana and Sanou, Jacob and Orlandini, Simone}, title = {Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation in Burkina Faso}, journal = {Atmosphere}, volume = {11}, number = {8}, pages = {827}, ISSN = {2073-4433}, DOI = {10.3390/atmos11080827}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/8/827}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1279, author = {Álvarez Larrain, Alina and McCall, Michael K.}, title = {Participatory mapping and participatory GIS for historical and archaeological landscape studies: a critical review}, journal = {Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {643-678}, abstract = {This article presents participatory mapping (PM) and Participatory Geographical Information Systems (PGIS) approaches as an appropriate and still developing kind of community-based spatial study in archaeology. Researchers and practitioners who advocate reflexive mapping practices in the field recognize that mapping is not an objective practice and that maps are necessarily the product of those who create them. We consider that a PM/PGIS approach can contribute to this reflexive practice through the incorporation of local spatial knowledge (LSK) which is always place-based and reflects a long and close physical interaction with the landscape. For local communities, this approach helps them to be incorporated as active subjects in the registration and interpretation of their cultural heritage, as well as in the defense and management of it. At the same time, archaeological studies are enriched by incorporating contemporary perspectives and local people’s knowledge into interpretations of past landscapes.}, ISSN = {1573-7764}, DOI = {10.1007/s10816-018-9385-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10816-018-9385-z}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1280, author = {Alves, Bruna and Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire and Morand, Pierre and Almar, Rafael}, title = {A review on coastal erosion and flooding risks and best management practices in West Africa: what has been done and should be done}, journal = {Journal of Coastal Conservation}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, ISSN = {1400-0350 1874-7841}, DOI = {10.1007/s11852-020-00755-7}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1281, author = {Amadi, Jacinter A. and Olago, Daniel O. and Ong’amo, George O. and Oriaso, Silas O. and Nanyingi, Mark and Nyamongo, Isaac K. and Estambale, Benson B. A.}, title = {Sensitivity of vegetation to climate variability and its implications for malaria risk in Baringo, Kenya}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {e0199357}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0199357}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0199357}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1282, author = {Amadi, Luke and Ogonor, U. Mac}, title = {Climate change, environmental security and displacement in Nigeria: Experience from the Niger Delta Flood Disaster, 2012}, journal = {African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {53-64}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST2014.1749}, url = {http://www.academicjournals.org/AJEST}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1283, author = {Amamou, Hajer and Sassi, Mohsen Ben and Aouadi, Hatem and Khemiri, Hichem and Mahouachi, Mokhtar and Beckers, Yves and Hammami, Hedi}, title = {Climate change-related risks and adaptation strategies as perceived in dairy cattle farming systems in Tunisia}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {20}, pages = {38-49}, keywords = {Dairy farming system Typology Adaptation Climate change}, ISSN = {22120963}, DOI = {10.1016/j.crm.2018.03.004}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096317300530}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1284, author = {Amanambu, Amobichukwu C. and Li, Lanhai and Egbinola, Christiana N. and Obarein, Omon A. and Mupenzi, Christophe and Chen, Ditao}, title = {Spatio-temporal variation in rainfall-runoff erosivity due to climate change in the Lower Niger Basin, West Africa}, journal = {CATENA}, volume = {172}, pages = {324-334}, abstract = {Spatio-temporal variation in rainfall-runoff erosivity resulting from changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change has implications for soil and water conservation in developing countries. Understanding past and future variations in rainfall-runoff erosivity and its implication, in tropical areas where there are limited continuous daily rainfall records, is important. The present study attempted to (i) quantify the nature of spatiotemporal variability of erosivity from rainfall amount using Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and (ii) evaluate the implications of changes in rainfall-runoff erosivity in the Lower Niger Basin, West Africa. The GCMs scenarios (GFDLCM3, HADCM2, MIROC5, and MPIESMLR) were statistically downscaled using the delta method for three-time slices (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). World climate data was used as the current baseline climate since it is the source of the future precipitation simulation. The R factor from the Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was used to determine erosivity, while the RUSLE model was used to ascertain the implications of changes in erosivity. Observation data (1970–2013) from 20 meteorological stations were used to validate the erosivity model. The result indicates that there is an increasing trend in the annual rainfall-runoff erosivity from the baseline climate up to the GCMs, for all the GCMs, with an average change in rainfall-runoff erosivity of about 14.1%, 19%, and 24.2% for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively. There was a concomitant increase in soil loss of 12.2%, 19.3% and 20.6% from the baseline for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively. Though the combined average annual rainfall and erosivity show steady increases, some of the models (GFDLCM3-2.6 and HADCM2-2.6) reveal a likely decrease in annual rainfall and erosivity for the 2070s. Higher precipitation amounts were the major drivers of increasing spatial and temporal rainfall-runoff erosivity. More studies should be performed to include other important factors that exacerbate increases in erosivity, especially future changes in land use.}, keywords = {Rainfall-runoff erosivity GCMs RUSLE Soil erosion Niger-basin Climate change}, ISSN = {0341-8162}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.09.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0341816218303709}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1285, author = {Amare, Zerihun Yohannes and Ayoade, Johnson O. and Adelekan, Ibidun O. and Zeleke, Menberu Teshome}, title = {Barriers to and determinants of the choice of crop management strategies to combat climate change in Dejen District, Nile Basin of Ethiopia}, journal = {Agriculture & Food Security}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {37}, abstract = {Climate change without adaptation is projected to impact strongly the livelihoods of the rural communities. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for least developed country like Ethiopia due to high population and dependency on agriculture. Hence, this study was initiated to examine the barriers to and determinants of the choice of crop management strategies to combat climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concepts of climate change response provided the framework. Stratified and snowball sampling techniques were employed to select a sample of 398 households. The household survey was employed to collect data on current adaptation strategies. Logistic regression was used to analyse the determinants of the choice of adaptation strategies. Logistic regression analyses were carried out at p ≤ 0.05.}, ISSN = {2048-7010}, DOI = {10.1186/s40066-018-0188-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-018-0188-y}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1286, author = {AMCOW}, title = {Water Security and Climate Resilient Development: Strategic Framework}, institution = {The African Ministers’ Council on Water (AMCOW)}, url = {https://www.preventionweb.net/files/43470_watersecurityandclimateresilientdev.pdf}, year = {2012}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1287, author = {Amegah, A. Kofi and Rezza, Giovanni and Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.}, title = {Temperature-related morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review of the empirical evidence}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {91}, pages = {133-149}, abstract = {Background Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) contributes very little to overall climate change and yet it is estimated to bear the highest burden of climate change, with 34% of the global DALYs attributable to the effects of climate change found in SSA. With the exception of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, there is very limited research on human health effects of climate change in SSA, in spite of growing awareness of the region's vulnerability to climate change. Objectives Our objective is to systematically review all studies investigating temperature variability and non-vector borne morbidity and mortality in SSA to establish the state and quality of available evidence, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose future research priorities. Methods PubMed, Ovid Medline and Scopus were searched from their inception to the end of December 2014. We modified the GRADE guidelines to rate the quality of the body of evidence. Results Of 6745 studies screened, 23 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. Moderate evidence exists to associate temperature variability with cholera outbreaks, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and deaths, and all-cause deaths in the region. The quality of evidence on child undernutrition is low, and for diarrhea occurrence, meningitis, Ebola, asthma and respiratory diseases, and skin diseases, very low. Conclusions The evidence base is somehow weakened by the limited number of studies uncovered, methodological limitations of the studies, and notable inconsistencies in the study findings. Further research with robust study designs and standardized analytical methods is thus needed to produce more credible evidence base to inform climate change preparedness plans and public health policies for improved adaptive capacity in SSA. Investment in meteorological services, and strengthening of health information systems is also required to guarantee timely, up-to-date and reliable data.}, keywords = {Climate change Morbidity Mortality Sub-Saharan Africa Systematic review Temperature variability}, ISSN = {0160-4120}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.02.027}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412016300630}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1288, author = {Amusan, L and Olutola, O}, title = {Climate change and sustainable tourism: South Africa caught in-between}, journal = {African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, ISSN = {2223-814X}, url = {https://repository.nwu.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10394/27751/2017Climate_Change.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1289, author = {Anadón, José D. and Sala, Osvaldo E. and Turner, B. L. and Bennett, Elena M.}, title = {Effect of woody-plant encroachment on livestock production in North and South America}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {111}, number = {35}, pages = {12948}, abstract = {Grasslands all over the world are undergoing a rapid shift from herbaceous to woody-plant dominance, a phenomenon known as woody-plant encroachment. The impact of this global phenomenon on livestock production (LP), the main ecosystem service provided by grasslands, remains largely unexplored. We quantified, for the first time, the impact of woody-plant encroachment on LP at a large scale, finding a reduction of between 0.6 and 1.6 reproductive cows per square kilometer for each 1% increase in tree cover. By comparing the largest rangelands of the Americas (United States and Argentina), we also showed how the impact of woody-plant encroachment is mediated by social–economic factors. Our paper represents a significant advance in our understanding of grasslands as complex social–ecological systems.A large fraction of the world grasslands and savannas are undergoing a rapid shift from herbaceous to woody-plant dominance. This land-cover change is expected to lead to a loss in livestock production (LP), but the impacts of woody-plant encroachment on this crucial ecosystem service have not been assessed. We evaluate how tree cover (TC) has affected LP at large spatial scales in rangelands of contrasting social–economic characteristics in the United States and Argentina. Our models indicate that in areas of high productivity, a 1% increase in TC results in a reduction in LP ranging from 0.6 to 1.6 reproductive cows (Rc) per km2. Mean LP in the United States is 27 Rc per km2, so a 1% increase in TC results in a 2.5% decrease in mean LP. This effect is large considering that woody-plant cover has been described as increasing at 0.5% to 2% per y. On the contrary, in areas of low productivity, increased TC had a positive effect on LP. Our results also show that ecological factors account for a larger fraction of LP variability in Argentinean than in US rangelands. Differences in the relative importance of ecological versus nonecological drivers of LP in Argentina and the United States suggest that the valuation of ecosystem services between these two rangelands might be different. Current management strategies in Argentina are likely designed to maximize LP for various reasons we are unable to explore in this effort, whereas land managers in the United States may be optimizing multiple ecosystem services, including conservation or recreation, alongside LP.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1320585111}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/35/12948.abstract}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1290, author = {Anchang, Julius Y. and Prihodko, Lara and Kaptué, Armel T. and Ross, Christopher W. and Ji, Wenjie and Kumar, Sanath S. and Lind, Brianna and Sarr, Mamadou A. and Diouf, Abdoul A. and Hanan, Niall P.}, title = {Trends in Woody and Herbaceous Vegetation in the Savannas of West Africa}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {576}, keywords = {land degradation rain use efficiency re-greening semi-arid drylands sudano-sahelian}, DOI = {10.3390/rs11050576}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/5/576}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1291, author = {Andela, Niels and van der Werf, Guido R.}, title = {Recent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and El Niño to La Niña transition}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {791-795}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2313}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2313}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1292, author = {Anderson, Alecia}, title = {Mean streets: migration, xenophobia and informality in South Africa}, journal = {Ethnic and Racial Studies}, volume = {40}, number = {8}, pages = {1343-1345}, ISSN = {0141-9870}, DOI = {10.1080/01419870.2016.1243252}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/01419870.2016.1243252}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1293, author = {Andrews, Talbot M. and Smirnov, Oleg}, title = {Who feels the impacts of climate change?}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {65}, pages = {102164}, keywords = {Public opinion Climate change Disasters Hurricane Florence Emotions Empathy}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102164}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307470}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1294, author = {Andrijevic, Marina and Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus and Lissner, Tabea and Thomas, Adelle and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich}, title = {Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {6261}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-020-19856-w}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19856-w}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1295, author = {Angelsen, Arild and Jagger, Pamela and Babigumira, Ronnie and Belcher, Brian and Hogarth, Nicholas J. and Bauch, Simone and Börner, Jan and Smith-Hall, Carsten and Wunder, Sven}, title = {Environmental Income and Rural Livelihoods: A Global-Comparative Analysis}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {64}, pages = {S12-S28}, abstract = {Summary This paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in CIFOR’s Poverty Environment Network (PEN). Environmental income accounts for 28% of total household income, 77% of which comes from natural forests. Environmental income shares are higher for low-income households, but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought. The poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods, and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests. In absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile, compared to the two lowest quintiles.}, keywords = {forests household income surveys inequality poverty}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.03.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14000722}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1296, author = {Angula, M. N. and Menjono, E.}, title = {Gender, culture and climate change in Namibia}, url = {http://journals.unam.edu.na/index.php/JSHSS/article/view/980}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1297, author = {Anim, Desmond Ofosu and Ofori-Asenso, Richard}, title = {Water scarcity and COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {The Journal of infection}, volume = {81}, number = {2}, pages = {e108-e109}, keywords = {Africa South of the Sahara Betacoronavirus COVID-19 *Coronavirus Infections Humans *Pandemics *Pneumonia, Viral SARS-CoV-2 *Water}, ISSN = {1532-2742 0163-4453}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jinf.2020.05.032}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32445723 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239790/}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1298, author = {Anthony, Kenneth R.N. and Marshall, Paul A. and Abdulla, Ameer and Beeden, Roger and Bergh, Chris and Black, Ryan and Eakin, C. Mark and Game, Edward T. and Gooch, Margaret and Graham, Nicholas A.J. and Green, Alison and Heron, Scott F. and van Hooidonk, Ruben and Knowland, Cheryl and Mangubhai, Sangeeta and Marshall, Nadine and Maynard, Jeffrey A. and McGinnity, Peter and McLeod, Elizabeth and Mumby, Peter. J. and Nyström, Magnus and Obura, David and Oliver, Jamie and Possingham, Hugh P. and Pressey, Robert L. and Rowlands, Gwilym P. and Tamelander, Jerker and Wachenfeld, David and Wear, Stephanie}, title = {Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {48-61}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {10.1111/gcb.12700}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12700}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1299, author = {Antwi-Agyei, Philip and Dougill, Andrew J. and Doku-Marfo, John and Abaidoo, Robert C.}, title = {Understanding climate services for enhancing resilient agricultural systems in Anglophone West Africa: The case of Ghana}, journal = {Climate Services}, volume = {22}, pages = {100218}, ISSN = {2405-8807}, DOI = {10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100218}, url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100218}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1300, author = {Antwi-Agyei, Philip and Dougill, Andrew J. and Stringer, Lindsay C.}, title = {Barriers to climate change adaptation: evidence from northeast Ghana in the context of a systematic literature review}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {297-309}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2014.951013}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2014.951013}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1301, author = {Antwi-Agyei, Philip and Dougill, Andrew J. and Stringer, Lindsay C. and Codjoe, Samuel Nii Ardey}, title = {Adaptation opportunities and maladaptive outcomes in climate vulnerability hotspots of northern Ghana}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {19}, pages = {83-93}, keywords = {Maladaptation Climate change and variability Livelihoods Mixed methods Africa}, ISSN = {2212-0963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.11.003}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096317300712}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1302, author = {Antwi-Agyei, P. and Stringer, L. C. and Dougill, A. J.}, title = {Livelihood adaptations to climate variability: insights from farming households in Ghana}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {1615-1626}, keywords = {Drought Coping Climate change Sub-Saharan Africa Agriculture Rural livelihoods}, ISSN = {1436-3798}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-014-0597-9}, url = {://WOS:000339736700026}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1303, author = {Arbieu, Ugo and Grünewald, Claudia and Schleuning, Matthias and Böhning-Gaese, Katrin}, title = {The importance of vegetation density for tourists’ wildlife viewing experience and satisfaction in African savannah ecosystems}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {12}, number = {9}, ISSN = {1932-6203}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0185793}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5619831/}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1304, author = {Arblaster, J. M. and Meehl, G. A. and Karoly, D. J.}, title = {Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, abstract = {Future anthropogenic climate change in the Southern Hemisphere is likely to be driven by two opposing effects, stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases. We examine simulations from two coupled climate models in which the details of these two forcings are known. While both models suggest that recent positive summertime trends in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will reverse sign over the coming decades as the ozone hole recovers, climate sensitivity appears to play a large role in modifying the strength of their SAM response. Similar relationships are found between climate sensitivity and SAM trends when the analysis is extended to transient CO2 simulations from other coupled models. Tropical upper tropospheric warming is found to be more relevant than polar stratospheric cooling to the intermodel variation in the SAM trends in CO2-only simulations.}, keywords = {Southern Hemisphere climate change}, ISSN = {0094-8276}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045384}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045384}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1305, author = {Arbuckle, J. G., Jr. and Morton, L. W. and Hobbs, J.}, title = {Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk}, journal = {Environ Behav}, volume = {47}, number = {2}, pages = {205-234}, note = {Arbuckle, J Gordon Jr Morton, Lois Wright Hobbs, Jon eng Environ Behav. 2015 Feb;47(2):205-234. doi: 10.1177/0013916513503832.}, abstract = {Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).}, keywords = {adaptation agriculture climate change mitigation risk}, ISSN = {0013-9165 (Print) 0013-9165 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1177/0013916513503832}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25983336}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1306, author = {ARC}, title = {ARC Risk Pools}, publisher = {African Risk Capacity}, volume = {2021}, number = {30/08/2021}, url = {https://www.africanriskcapacity.org/countries/arc-risk-pools/}, year = {2019}, type = {Web Page} } @article{RN1307, author = {Ario, A. R. and Makumbi, I. and Bulage, L. and Kyazze, S. and Kayiwa, J. and Wetaka, M. M. and Kasule, J. N. and Ocom, F.}, title = {The logic model for Uganda's health sector preparedness for public health threats and emergencies}, journal = {Glob Health Action}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1664103}, keywords = {Disaster Planning/*organization & administration *Emergencies Humans Models, Organizational *Public Health Risk Assessment/methods Uganda *Uganda *logic model *multi-hazard *preparedness}, ISSN = {1654-9716 (Print) 1654-9880}, DOI = {10.1080/16549716.2019.1664103}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6758612/pdf/ZGHA_12_1664103.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1308, author = {Armitage, Neil and Fisher-Jeffes, Lloyd and Carden, Kirsty and Winter, Kevin and Naidoo, Vinothan and Spiegel, Andrew and Mauck, Ben and Coulson, Daniel }, title = {Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) for South Africa: Framework and Guidelines}, institution = {University of Cape Town}, number = {WRC Report No. TT 588/14}, DOI = {10.13140/2.1.3042.5922}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1309, author = {Arndt, Channing and Chinowsky, Paul and Fant, Charles and Paltsev, Sergey and Schlosser, C. Adam and Strzepek, Kenneth and Tarp, Finn and Thurlow, James}, title = {Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {154}, number = {3-4}, pages = {335-349}, ISSN = {0165-0009 1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-019-02428-3}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1310, author = {Arnold, Craig Anthony and Gunderson, Lance H}, title = {Adaptive law and resilience}, journal = {Envtl. L. Rep. News & Analysis}, volume = {43}, pages = {10426-10443}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1311, author = {Asaminew, T. G. and Araya, A. and Atkilt, G. and Solomon, H.}, title = {Modeling the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) Production in Northeastern Semi-Arid Afar and Western Tigray Regions of Ethiopia}, journal = {J Earth Sci Clim Change}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, DOI = {10.4172/2157-7617.1000390}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1312, author = {Asamoah, B. and Kjellstrom, T. and Ostergren, P. O.}, title = {Is ambient heat exposure levels associated with miscarriage or stillbirths in hot regions? A cross-sectional study using survey data from the Ghana Maternal Health Survey 2007}, journal = {Int J Biometeorol}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {319-330}, keywords = {Abortion, Spontaneous/*epidemiology Adolescent Adult Cross-Sectional Studies Female Ghana/epidemiology Health Surveys *Hot Temperature Humans Humidity Maternal Health Odds Ratio Pregnancy Stillbirth/*epidemiology Wind Young Adult}, ISSN = {0020-7128}, DOI = {10.1007/s00484-017-1402-5}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5854714/pdf/484_2017_Article_1402.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1313, author = {Asfaw, Amogne and Simane, Belay and Hassen, Ali and Bantider, Amare}, title = {Determinants of non-farm livelihood diversification: evidence from rainfed-dependent smallholder farmers in northcentral Ethiopia (Woleka sub-basin)}, journal = {Development Studies Research}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {22-36}, ISSN = {2166-5095}, DOI = {10.1080/21665095.2017.1413411}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1314, author = {Asfaw, Solomon and Jemison, Cory and Khan, Aemal and Kyle, Jessica and Ottlakán, Liza and Polvi, Johanna and Puetz, Detlev and Puri, Jyotsna }, title = {Independent Evaluation of the Green Climate Fund’s Country Ownership Approach}, institution = {Independent Evaluation Unit, Green Climate Fund}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1315, author = {Asiama, Kwabena Obeng and Voss, Winrich and Bennett, Rohan and Rubanje, Innocent}, title = {Land consolidation activities in Sub-Saharan Africa towards the agenda 2030: A tale of three countries}, journal = {Land Use Policy}, volume = {101}, ISSN = {02648377}, DOI = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105140}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1316, author = {Asiyanbi, A. P.}, title = {'I don't get this climate stuff!' Making sense of climate change among the corporate middle class in Lagos}, journal = {Public Underst Sci}, volume = {24}, number = {8}, pages = {1007-24}, note = {Asiyanbi, Adeniyi P eng Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't England Public Underst Sci. 2015 Nov;24(8):1007-24. doi: 10.1177/0963662514565332. Epub 2015 Jan 5.}, abstract = {Public engagement continues to be central to wider efforts to address climate change. This study contributes to public engagement debates by investigating engagement with climate change among an often overlooked group, the corporate middle class in Africa's second largest megacity, Lagos. Combining survey and interviews, I focus analysis on three aspects: awareness, knowledge and concern; role of scientific and social frames in shaping general attitude; and spatial attribution of causes and consequences. The study reveals a universal awareness and high concern about climate change among the respondents, although understanding and perceptions of climate change are significantly socially framed. Social situatedness, more than scientific facts, is the most important definer of overall engagement with climate change. This study thus underscores a nuanced constructionist stance, showing how corporate professionals' 'ways of knowing' climate change is underpinned by a certain co-production between scientific and socio-experiential frames. I highlight implications for research and public engagement with climate change.}, keywords = {climate change co-production lay perception middle class public engagement}, ISSN = {1361-6609 (Electronic) 0963-6625 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1177/0963662514565332}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25563297}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1317, author = {Asner, Gregory P and Vaughn, Nicholas and Smit, Izak PJ and Levick, Shaun}, title = {Ecosystem‐scale effects of megafauna in African savannas}, journal = {Ecography}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {240-252}, ISSN = {0906-7590}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01640}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1318, author = {Asseng, Senthold and Martre, Pierre and Maiorano, Andrea and Rötter, Reimund P. and O’Leary, Garry J. and Fitzgerald, Glenn J. and Girousse, Christine and Motzo, Rosella and Giunta, Francesco and Babar, M. Ali and Reynolds, Matthew P. and Kheir, Ahmed M. S. and Thorburn, Peter J. and Waha, Katharina and Ruane, Alex C. and Aggarwal, Pramod K. and Ahmed, Mukhtar and Balkovič, Juraj and Basso, Bruno and Biernath, Christian and Bindi, Marco and Cammarano, Davide and Challinor, Andrew J. and De Sanctis, Giacomo and Dumont, Benjamin and Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan and Fereres, Elias and Ferrise, Roberto and Garcia‐Vila, Margarita and Gayler, Sebastian and Gao, Yujing and Horan, Heidi and Hoogenboom, Gerrit and Izaurralde, R. César and Jabloun, Mohamed and Jones, Curtis D. and Kassie, Belay T. and Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian and Klein, Christian and Koehler, Ann‐Kristin and Liu, Bing and Minoli, Sara and Montesino San Martin, Manuel and Müller, Christoph and Naresh Kumar, Soora and Nendel, Claas and Olesen, Jørgen Eivind and Palosuo, Taru and Porter, John R. and Priesack, Eckart and Ripoche, Dominique and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Stöckle, Claudio and Stratonovitch, Pierre and Streck, Thilo and Supit, Iwan and Tao, Fulu and Van der Velde, Marijn and Wallach, Daniel and Wang, Enli and Webber, Heidi and Wolf, Joost and Xiao, Liujun and Zhang, Zhao and Zhao, Zhigan and Zhu, Yan and Ewert, Frank}, title = {Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {155-173}, ISSN = {1354-1013, 1365-2486}, DOI = {10.1111/gcb.14481}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14481}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1319, author = {Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel and Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa and Rufangura, Patrick}, title = {Impact analysis of flood in Accra, Ghana}, journal = {Advances in Applied Science Research}, volume = { 6}, number = {9}, pages = {53-78}, ISSN = {0976-8610}, url = {http://www.pelagiaresearchlibrary.com/}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1320, author = {Aswad, N. A. E. and Mohammad, T. A. and Ghazali, A. H. and Yusoff, Z. M.}, title = {Modelling of Groundwater Pumping Scenarios and their Impact on Saline Water Intrusion in a Tripoli Coastal Aquifer, Libya}, journal = {Pertanika J. Sci. & Technol. }, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {1407-1427}, ISSN = {0128-7680}, url = {http://www.pertanika.upm.edu.my/resources/files/Pertanika%20PAPERS/JST%20Vol.%2027%20(3)%20Jul.%202019/26%20JST-1100-2018.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1321, author = {Atindana, Sandra Akugpoka and Ofori-danson, Patrick Kwabena and Brucet, Sandra}, title = {Modelling the effects of climate change on shellfish production in marine artisanal fisheries of Ghana}, journal = {AAS Open Research}, volume = {2}, number = {16}, pages = {1-13}, keywords = {climate change model oyster prediction production shellfish catch}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.12688/aasopenres.12956.1}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1322, author = {Atteridge, Aaron}, title = {Transforming household energy practices to reduce climate risks: Charcoal use in Lusaka, Zambia.}, journal = {Climate Change: Adaptation, Resilience and Energy Security}, volume = {61}, pages = {5-7}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1323, author = {Attu, H. and Adjei, J. K.}, title = {Local knowledge and practices towards malaria in an irrigated farming community in Ghana}, journal = {Malar J}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {150}, keywords = {Community perceptions Irrigation agriculture Malaria Sub-Saharan Africa}, ISSN = {1475-2875 (Electronic) 1475-2875 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1186/s12936-018-2291-8}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29615059}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1324, author = {AU}, title = {Agenda 2063}, institution = {The African Union Commission}, url = {https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/36204-doc-agenda2063_popular_version_en.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1325, author = {Augustine, David J. and Blumenthal, Dana M. and Springer, Tim L. and LeCain, Daniel R. and Gunter, Stacey A. and Derner, Justin D.}, title = {Elevated CO2 induces substantial and persistent declines in forage quality irrespective of warming in mixedgrass prairie}, journal = {Ecological Applications}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {721-735}, keywords = {Bouteloua gracilis forage quality global warming Great Plains grassland Hesperostipa comata livestock production Pascopyrum smithii rangeland management}, ISSN = {1939-5582}, DOI = {10.1002/eap.1680}, url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.1680}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1326, author = {Augustyn, J and Cockcroft, A and Kerwath, S and Lamberth, S and Githaigi-Mwicigi, J and Pitcher, G and Roberts, M and van der Lingen, C and Auerswald, L}, title = {South Africa}, booktitle = {Climate change impacts on fisheries and aquaculture: a global analysis}, editor = {Phillips, BF and Perez-Ramirez, M}, publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Inc}, volume = {2}, chapter = {15}, pages = {479-522}, ISBN = {978-1-119-15404-4}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @inbook{RN1327, author = {Averchenkova, Alina and Matikainen, Sini}, title = {Climate legislation and international commitments}, booktitle = {Trends in Climate Change Legislation}, editor = {Averchenkova, A., Fankhauser, S., Nachmany, M}, publisher = {Edward Elgar}, address = {London}, pages = {193-208}, ISBN = {978 1 78643 577 4}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1328, author = {Awondo, Sebastain N.}, title = {Efficiency of region-wide catastrophic weather risk pools: Implications for African Risk Capacity insurance program}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {136}, pages = {111-118}, keywords = {Catastrophic risk pools Weather-index insurance Systemic risk Africa risk capacity}, ISSN = {0304-3878}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.10.004}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438781831397X}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1329, author = {Awotwi A and Kumi M and Jansson PE and Yeboah F and IK, Nti}, title = {Predicting Hydrological Response to Climate Change in the White Volta Catchment, West Africa}, journal = {Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change}, volume = {06}, number = {01}, ISSN = {21577617}, DOI = {10.4172/2157-7617.1000249}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1330, author = {Awoye, O. H. R. and Pollinger, F. and Agbossou, E. K. and Paeth, H.}, title = {Dynamical-statistical projections of the climate change impact on agricultural production in Benin by means of a cross-validated linear model combined with Bayesian statistics}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {234-235}, pages = {80-94}, abstract = {West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and a robust quantification of the societal impacts of climate change is essential to guide the necessary adaptation efforts. Here, we project the potential impacts of climate change on nine important crops using climate change information from a gridded observational data set and a high-resolution regional climate model driven with and without land use changes. Probabilistic crop models are developed and forced with climate predictors until 2050. It is found that large-scale climate predictors are sufficiently robust for crop modelling in the absence of reliable local climate information. Pineapple, maize, groundnuts, cassava and cowpeas will face harmful effects with an average yield reduction in the range of 11%–33% by 2050, whereas sorghum, yam, cotton and rice will benefit from climate change with an average yield gain of 10–39%. Temperature increase rather than precipitation change is responsible for the projected yield changes. Our study also shows that land cover degradation in West Africa tends to reduce yield for most crops whilst favouring the production of yam and cotton.}, keywords = {Climate change Climate impacts Yield variability Statistical crop modeling West Africa}, ISSN = {0168-1923}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.12.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316307389}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1331, author = {Axelsson, Christoffer R. and Hanan, Niall P.}, title = {Rates of woody encroachment in African savannas reflect water constraints and fire disturbance}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {1209-1218}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13221}, abstract = {Abstract Aim The aims of this study were to (1) estimate current rates of woody encroachment across African savannas; (2) identify relationships between change in woody cover and potential drivers, including water constraints, fire frequency and livestock density. The found relationships led us to pursue a third goal: (3) use temporal dynamics in woody cover to estimate potential woody cover. Location Sub-Saharan African savannas. Methods The study used very high spatial resolution satellite imagery at sites with overlapping older (2002?2006) and newer (2011?2016) imagery to estimate change in woody cover. We sampled 596 sites in 38 separate areas across African savannas. Areas with high anthropogenic impact were avoided in order to more clearly identify the influence of environmental factors. Relationships between woody cover change and potential drivers were identified using linear regression and simultaneous autoregression, where the latter accounts for spatial autocorrelation. Results The mean annual change in woody cover across our study areas was 0.25% per year. Although we cannot explain the general trend of encroachment based on our data, we found that change rates were positively correlated with the difference between potential woody cover and actual woody cover (a proxy for water availability; p < .001), and negatively correlated with fire frequency (p < .01). Using the relationship between rates of encroachment and initial cover, we estimated potential woody cover at different rainfall levels. Main conclusions The results indicate that woody encroachment is ongoing and widespread across African savannas. The fact that the difference between potential and actual cover was the most significant predictor highlights the central role of water availability and tree?tree competition in controlling change in woody populations, both in water-limited and mesic savannas. Our approach to derive potential woody cover from the woody cover change trajectories demonstrates that temporal dynamics in woody populations can be used to infer resource limitations.}, keywords = {Africa change detection fire potential woody cover savanna simultaneous autoregression very high spatial resolution imagery water constraints woody cover woody encroachment}, ISSN = {0305-0270}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13221}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13221}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1332, author = {Ayal, Desalegn Yayeh and Leal Filho, Walter}, title = {Farmers' perceptions of climate variability and its adverse impacts on crop and livestock production in Ethiopia}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {140}, pages = {20-28}, ISSN = {01401963}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2017.01.007}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1333, author = {Ayana, Essayas K. and Ceccato, Pietro and Fisher, Jonathan R. B. and DeFries, Ruth}, title = {Examining the relationship between environmental factors and conflict in pastoralist areas of East Africa}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {557-558}, pages = {601-611}, abstract = {The eastern Africa region has long been known for recurring drought, prolonged civil war and frequent pastoral conflicts. Several researchers have suggested that environmental factors can trigger conflicts among pastoralist communities, but quantitative support for this hypothesis is lacking. Here we use 29years of georeferenced precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to evaluate long term trends in scarcity of water and forage for livestock, and then ask whether these environmental stressors have any predictive power with respect to the location and timing of 11years of conflict data based on Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Results indicate that environmental stressors were only partly predictive of conflict events. To better understand the drivers behind conflict, the contribution of other potential stressors to conflict need to be systematically quantified and be taken into consideration.}, keywords = {Conflict East Africa Pastoralist Climate and environmental factors}, ISSN = {0048-9697}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.102}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716305265}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1334, author = {Ayanlade, Ayansina and Jegede, Margaret Olusolape}, title = {Climate Change Education and Knowledge among Nigerian University Graduates}, journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {465-473}, ISSN = {1948-8327 1948-8335}, DOI = {10.1175/wcas-d-15-0071.1}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0071.1}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1335, author = {Ayanlade, Ayansina and Nwayor, Isioma J. and Sergi, Consolato and Ayanlade, Oluwatoyin S. and Di Carlo, Paola and Jeje, Olajumoke D. and Jegede, Margaret O.}, title = {Early warning climate indices for malaria and meningitis in tropical ecological zones}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {14303}, ISSN = {2045-2322}, DOI = {10.1038/s41598-020-71094-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71094-8}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1336, author = {Ayanlade, Ayansina and Ojebisi, Stephen M.}, title = {Climate change impacts on cattle production: analysis of cattle herders’ climate variability/change adaptation strategies in Nigeria}, journal = {Change and Adaptation in Socio-Ecological Systems}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {12-23}, DOI = {doi:10.1515/cass-2019-0002}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1515/cass-2019-0002}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1337, author = {Ayanlade, Ayansina and Radeny, Maren and Akin-Onigbinde, Akintomiwa Isaac}, title = {Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria}, journal = {GeoJournal}, volume = {83}, number = {2}, pages = {319-331}, ISSN = {0343-2521 1572-9893}, DOI = {10.1007/s10708-017-9771-1}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-017-9771-1}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1338, author = {Ayanlade, Ayansina and Radeny, Maren and Morton, John F.}, title = {Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria}, journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes}, volume = {15}, pages = {24-33}, abstract = {This paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, climate variability and their impacts, and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three decades. We use ethnographic analysis, combined with Cumulative Departure Index (CDI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) analysis, and correlation analysis to compare farmers’ perceptions in Southwestern Nigeria with historical meteorological data, in order to assess the way farmers’ observations mirror the climatic trends. The results show that about 67% of farmers who participated had observed recent changes in climate. Perceptions of rural farmers on climate change and variability are consistent with the climatic trend analysis. RAI and CDI results illustrate that not less than 11 out of 30 years in each study site experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. Climatic trends show fluctuations in both early growing season (EGS) and late growing season (LGS) rainfall and the 5-year moving average suggests a reduction in rainfall over the 30 years. Climatic trends confirmed farmers’ perceptions that EGS and LGS precipitations are oscillating, that rainfall onset is becoming later, and EGS rainfall is reducing. Overall impacts of climate change on both crops and livestock appear to be highly negative, much more on maize (62.8%), yam (52.2%), poultry (67%) and cattle (63.2%). Years of farming experiences and level of income of farmers appear to have a significant relationship with farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies, with r≥0.60@ p<0.05 and r≥0.520@ p<0.05 respectively. The study concluded that farmers’ perceptions of climate change mirror meteorological analysis, though their perceptions were based on local climate parameters. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change since the majority of them do not have enough resources to cope.}, keywords = {Climate change Smallholder farmers Perception analysis Nigeria}, ISSN = {2212-0947}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.12.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300755}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1339, author = {Ayele, Hailu and Li, Ming-Hsu and Tung, Ching-Pin and Liu, Tzu-Ming}, title = {Impact of climate change on runoff in the Gilgel Abbay watershed, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia}, journal = {Water}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, ISSN = {2073-4441}, DOI = {10.3390/w8090380}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1340, author = {Ayugi, Brian Odhiambo and Tan, Guirong}, title = {Recent trends of surface air temperatures over Kenya from 1971 to 2010}, journal = {Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics}, volume = {131}, number = {5}, pages = {1401-1413}, ISSN = {0177-7971 1436-5065}, DOI = {10.1007/s00703-018-0644-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0644-z}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1341, author = {Azong, Matilda N. and Kelso, Clare J.}, title = {Gender, ethnicity and vulnerability to climate change: The case of matrilineal and patrilineal societies in Bamenda Highlands Region, Cameroon}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {67}, ISSN = {09593780}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102241}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1342, author = {Azongo, Daniel K. and Awine, Timothy and Wak, George and Binka, Fred N. and Rexford Oduro, Abraham}, title = {A time series analysis of weather variables and all-cause mortality in the Kasena-Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana, 1995–2010}, journal = {Global Health Action}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {19073}, ISSN = {1654-9716}, DOI = {10.3402/gha.v5i0.19073}, url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19073}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1343, author = {Azzarri, Carlo and Signorelli, Sara}, title = {Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {125}, pages = {104691}, abstract = {To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path.}, keywords = {Mapping Poverty Climate change Weather shocks Sub-Saharan Africa Spatial models}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104691}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19303390}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1344, author = {Baarsch, Florent and Granadillos, Jessie R. and Hare, William and Knaus, Maria and Krapp, Mario and Schaeffer, Michiel and Lotze-Campen, Hermann}, title = {The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {126}, pages = {104699}, abstract = {Climate change is projected to detrimentally affect African countries’ economic development, while income inequalities across economies is among the highest on the planet. However, it is projected that income levels would converge on the continent. Hitherto there is limited evidence on how climate change could affect projected income convergence, accelerating, slowing down, or even reversing this process. Here, we analyze convergence considering climate-change damages, by employing an economic model embedding the three dimensions of risks at the country-level: exposure, vulnerability and hazards. The results show (1) with historical mean climate-induced losses between 10 and 15 percent of GDP per capita growth, the majority of African economies are poorly adapted to their current climatic conditions, (2) Western and Eastern African countries are projected to be the most affected countries on the continent and (3) As a consequence of these heightened impacts on a number of countries, inequalities between countries are projected to widen in the high warming scenario compared to inequalities in the low and without warming scenarios. To mitigate the impacts of economic development and inequalities across countries, we stress (1) the importance of mitigation ambition and Africa’s leadership in keeping global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C, (2) the need to address the current adaptation deficit as soon as possible, (3) the necessity to integrate quantitatively climate risks in economic and development planning and finally (4) we advocate for the generalization of a special treatment for the most vulnerable countries to access climate-related finance. The analysis raises issues on the ability of African countries to reach their SDGs targets and the potential increasing risk of instability, migration across African countries, of decreased trade and economic cooperation opportunities as a consequence of climate change – exacerbating its negative consequences.}, keywords = {Climate change Macroeconomics Inequality Convergence Africa}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104699}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X1930347X}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1345, author = {Baccini, A. and Walker, W. and Carvalho, L. and Farina, M. and Sulla-Menashe, D. and Houghton, R. A.}, title = {Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss}, journal = {Science}, volume = {358}, number = {6360}, pages = {230}, abstract = {Are tropical forests a net source or net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide? As fundamental a question as that is, there still is no agreement about the answer, with different studies suggesting that it is anything from a sizable sink to a modest source. Baccini et al. used 12 years of MODIS satellite data to determine how the aboveground carbon density of woody, live vegetation has changed throughout the entire tropics on an annual basis. They find that the tropics are a net carbon source, with losses owing to deforestation and reductions in carbon density within standing forests being double that of gains resulting from forest growth.Science, this issue p. 230The carbon balance of tropical ecosystems remains uncertain, with top-down atmospheric studies suggesting an overall sink and bottom-up ecological approaches indicating a modest net source. Here we use 12 years (2003 to 2014) of MODIS pantropical satellite data to quantify net annual changes in the aboveground carbon density of tropical woody live vegetation, providing direct, measurement-based evidence that the world’s tropical forests are a net carbon source of 425.2 ± 92.0 teragrams of carbon per year (Tg C year–1). This net release of carbon consists of losses of 861.7 ± 80.2 Tg C year–1 and gains of 436.5 ± 31.0 Tg C year–1. Gains result from forest growth; losses result from deforestation and from reductions in carbon density within standing forests (degradation or disturbance), with the latter accounting for 68.9% of overall losses.}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aam5962}, url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6360/230.abstract}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1346, author = {Baig, Saima and Pangilinan, Maria Josella and Rizvi, Ali Raza and Tan, Rosalina Palanca}, title = {Cost and benefits of ecosystem based adaptation}, institution = { IUCN}, number = {978-2-8317-1778-4}, month = {2016}, url = {https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/45925}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1347, author = {Bailey, K. M. and McCleery, R. A. and Barnes, G. and McKune, S. L.}, title = {Climate-Driven Adaptation, Household Capital, and Nutritional Outcomes among Farmers in Eswatini}, journal = {Int J Environ Res Public Health}, volume = {16}, number = {21}, keywords = {*Adaptation, Psychological Agriculture/*methods *Climate Change Eswatini/epidemiology *Farmers Humans Nutrition Surveys Nutritional Status Rural Health Socioeconomic Factors *Eswatini *adaptation *anthropometrics *capital *drought *nutrition}, ISSN = {1661-7827 (Print) 1660-4601}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph16214063}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31652699 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6862074/}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1348, author = {Baker, D. J. and Hartley, A. J. and Burgess, N. D. and Butchart, S. H. M. and Carr, J. A. and Smith, R. J. and Belle, E. and Willis, S. G.}, title = {Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West African protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections}, journal = {Diversity and Distributions}, volume = {21}, number = {9}, pages = {991-1003}, abstract = {Abstract Aim We conduct the first assessment of likely future climate change impacts for biodiversity across the West African protected area (PA) network using climate projections that capture important climate regimes (e.g. West African Monsoon) and mesoscale processes that are often poorly simulated in general circulation models (GCMs). Location West Africa. Methods We use correlative species distribution models to relate species (amphibians, birds, mammals) distributions to modelled contemporary climates, and projected future distributions across the PA network. Climate data were simulated using a physically based regional climate model to dynamically downscale GCMs. GCMs were selected because they accurately reproduce important regional climate regimes and generate a range of regional climate change responses. We quantify uncertainty arising from projected climate change, modelling methodology and spatial dependency, and assess the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change impacts for biodiversity across the PA network. Results Substantial species turnover across the network is projected for all three taxonomic groups by 2100 (amphibians = 42.5% (median); birds = 35.2%; mammals = 37.9%), although uncertainty is high, particularly for amphibians and mammals, and, importantly, increases across the century. However, consistent patterns of impacts across taxa emerge by early to mid-century, suggesting high impacts across the Lower Guinea forest. Main conclusions Reducing (e.g. using appropriate climate projections) and quantifying uncertainty in climate change impact assessments helps clarify likely impacts. Consistent patterns of high biodiversity impacts emerge in the early and mid-century projections, while end-of-century projections are too uncertain for reliable assessments. We recommend that climate change adaptation should focus on earlier projections, where we have most confidence in species responses, rather than on end-of-century projections that are frequently used. In addition, our work suggests climate impact should consider a broad range of species, as we simulate divergent responses across taxonomic groups.}, keywords = {Amphibians birds climate adaptation mammals regional climate model species distribution models}, ISSN = {1366-9516}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12337}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12337}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1349, author = {Baker, Rachel E. and Yang, Wenchang and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Metcalf, C. Jessica E. and Grenfell, Bryan T.}, title = {Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic}, journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)}, volume = {369}, number = {6501}, pages = {315-319}, keywords = {Betacoronavirus *Climate Computer Simulation Coronavirus Infections/*epidemiology/transmission Disease Susceptibility Humans Humidity *Models, Theoretical Pandemics Pneumonia, Viral/*epidemiology/transmission Seasons}, ISSN = {1095-9203 0036-8075}, DOI = {10.1126/science.abc2535}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32423996 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7243362/}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1350, author = {Bakun, A. and Black, B. A. and Bograd, S. J. and García-Reyes, M. and Miller, A. J. and Rykaczewski, R. R. and Sydeman, W. J.}, title = {Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems}, journal = {Current Climate Change Reports}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {85-93}, ISSN = {2198-6061}, DOI = {10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1351, author = {Balié, J. and Cramer, L. and Friedmann, M. and Gotor, E. and Jones, C. and Kozicka, M. and Kruseman, G. and Notenbaert, A. and Place, F. and Rebolledo, C. and Thornton, P. and Wiebe, K.}, title = {Exploring opportunities around climate-smart breeding for future food and nutrition security}, year = {2019}, type = {Press Release} } @article{RN1352, author = {Ban, Natalie C. and Gurney, Georgina Grace and Marshall, Nadine A. and Whitney, Charlotte K. and Mills, Morena and Gelcich, Stefan and Bennett, Nathan J. and Meehan, Mairi C. and Butler, Caroline and Ban, Stephen and Tran, Tanya C. and Cox, Michael E. and Breslow, Sara Jo}, title = {Well-being outcomes of marine protected areas}, journal = {Nature Sustainability}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {524-532}, ISSN = {2398-9629}, DOI = {10.1038/s41893-019-0306-2}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1353, author = {Bang, Henry and Miles, Lee and Gordon, Richard}, title = {Evaluating local vulnerability and organisational resilience to frequent flooding in Africa: the case of Northern Cameroon}, journal = {Foresight}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {266-284}, keywords = {Adaptive capacity,Disaster management,Vulnerability}, ISSN = {1463-6689}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-06-2018-0068}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1354, author = {Banga, Josué}, title = {The green bond market: a potential source of climate finance for developing countries}, journal = {Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {17-32}, ISSN = {2043-0795}, DOI = {10.1080/20430795.2018.1498617}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2018.1498617}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1355, author = {Bangira, Tsitsi and Maathuis, Ben H. P. and Dube, Timothy and Gara, Tawanda W.}, title = {Investigating flash floods potential areas using ASCAT and TRMM satellites in the Western Cape Province, South Africa}, journal = {Geocarto International}, volume = {30}, number = {7}, pages = {737-754}, ISSN = {1010-6049}, DOI = {10.1080/10106049.2014.997302}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2014.997302}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1356, author = {Barbarossa, Valerio and Bosmans, Joyce and Wanders, Niko and King, Henry and Bierkens, Marc F. P. and Huijbregts, Mark A. J. and Schipper, Aafke M.}, title = {Threats of global warming to the world’s freshwater fishes}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {1701}, abstract = {Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, but freshwater fishes have been largely ignored in climate change assessments. Here, we assess threats of future flow and water temperature extremes to ~11,500 riverine fish species. In a 3.2 °C warmer world (no further emission cuts after current governments’ pledges for 2030), 36% of the species have over half of their present-day geographic range exposed to climatic extremes beyond current levels. Threats are largest in tropical and sub-arid regions and increases in maximum water temperature are more threatening than changes in flow extremes. In comparison, 9% of the species are projected to have more than half of their present-day geographic range threatened in a 2 °C warmer world, which further reduces to 4% of the species if warming is limited to 1.5 °C. Our results highlight the need to intensify (inter)national commitments to limit global warming if freshwater biodiversity is to be safeguarded.}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-021-21655-w}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21655-w}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1357, author = {Barbet-Massin, M. and Jetz, W.}, title = {The effect of range changes on the functional turnover, structure and diversity of bird assemblages under future climate scenarios}, journal = {Glob Chang Biol}, volume = {21}, number = {8}, pages = {2917-28}, keywords = {Animals *Birds/physiology Body Size *Climate Change Diet *Ecosystem Feeding Behavior Forecasting *Models, Theoretical Motor Activity body mass foraging height foraging type functional turnover species distribution modeling}, ISSN = {1365-2486 (Electronic) 1354-1013 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1111/gcb.12905}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25931153}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1358, author = {Barbier, J. and Guichard, F. and Bouniol, D. and Couvreux, F. and Roehrig, R.}, title = {Detection of Intraseasonal Large-Scale Heat Waves: Characteristics and Historical Trends during the Sahelian Spring}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {31}, number = {1}, pages = {61-80}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0244.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/1/jcli-d-17-0244.1.xml}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1359, author = {Barcikowska, Monika J. and Kapnick, Sarah B. and Feser, Frauke}, title = {Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {50}, number = {5}, pages = {2039-2059}, abstract = {The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-017-3735-5}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3735-5}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1360, author = {Barenblitt, Abigail and Payton, Amanda and Lagomasino, David and Fatoyinbo, Lola and Asare, Kofi and Aidoo, Kenneth and Pigott, Hugo and Som, Charles Kofi and Smeets, Laurent and Seidu, Omar and Wood, Danielle}, title = {The large footprint of small-scale artisanal gold mining in Ghana}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {781}, pages = {146644}, keywords = {Galamsey Landsat Extent mapping NDVI Google Earth Engine}, ISSN = {0048-9697}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146644}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969721017125}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1361, author = {Barkin, Jennifer L and Buoli, Massimiliano and Curry, Carolann Lee and von Esenwein, Silke A and Upadhyay, Saswati and Kearney, Maggie Bridges and Mach, Katharine}, title = {Effects of extreme weather events on child mood and behavior}, journal = {Developmental Medicine & Child Neurology}, volume = {63}, number = {7}, pages = {785-790}, ISSN = {0012-1622}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/dmcn.14856}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/dmcn.14856}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1362, author = {Barnett, T.}, title = {An Engraved Landscape. Rock Carvings in the Wadi al-Ajal, Libya.}, publisher = {Society of Libyan Studies}, address = {London}, volume = {1}, ISBN = {978-1-900971-51-5}, url = {https://societyforlibyanstudies.org/shop/society-monographs/an-engraved-landscape-rock-carvings-in-the-wadi-al-ajal-libya-two-volume-set/}, year = {2019}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1363, author = {Baron, Jill S. and Specht, Alison and Garnier, Eric and Bishop, Pamela and Campbell, C. Andrew and Davis, Frank W. and Fady, Bruno and Field, Dawn and Gross, Louis J. and Guru, Siddeswara M. and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Hampton, Stephanie E. and Leavitt, Peter R. and Meagher, Thomas R. and Ometto, Jean and Parker, John N. and Price, Richard and Rawson, Casey H. and Rodrigo, Allen and Sheble, Laura A. and Winter, Marten}, title = {Synthesis Centers as Critical Research Infrastructure}, journal = {BioScience}, volume = {67}, number = {8}, pages = {750-759}, ISSN = {0006-3568}, DOI = {10.1093/biosci/bix053}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix053}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1364, author = {Barrett, Sam}, title = {Subnational Climate Justice? Adaptation Finance Distribution and Climate Vulnerability}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {58}, pages = {130-142}, keywords = {climate justice adaptation finance climate vulnerability Malawi}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.014}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14000151}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1365, author = {Barrios, Salvador and Bertinelli, Luisito and Strobl, Eric}, title = {Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Journal of Urban Economics}, volume = {60}, number = {3}, pages = {357-371}, keywords = {Urbanization Climate change Rainfall Rural–urban migration Africa}, ISSN = {00941190}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jue.2006.04.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119006000398}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1366, author = {Barrios, Salvador and Bertinelli, Luisito and Strobl, Eric}, title = {Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: A neglected cause of the African growth tragedy}, journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics}, volume = {92}, number = {2}, pages = {350-366}, ISSN = {0034-6535}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2010.11212}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1367, author = {Barry, A. A. and Caesar, J. and Klein Tank, A. M. G. and Aguilar, E. and McSweeney, Carol and Cyrille, Ahmed M. and Nikiema, M. P. and Narcisse, K. B. and Sima, F. and Stafford, G. and Touray, L. M. and Ayilari-Naa, J. A. and Mendes, C. L. and Tounkara, M. and Gar-Glahn, Eugene V. S. and Coulibaly, M. S. and Dieh, M. F. and Mouhaimouni, M. and Oyegade, J. A. and Sambou, E. and Laogbessi, E. T.}, title = {West Africa climate extremes and climate change indices}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {38}, number = {S1}, pages = {e921-e938}, ISSN = {08998418}, DOI = {10.1002/joc.5420}, url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5420}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1368, author = {Bartlett, Sheridan}, title = {Climate change and urban children: impacts and implications for adaptation in low- and middle-income countries}, journal = {Environment and Urbanization}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {501-519}, keywords = {Adaptation Children Climate change Impacts Urban}, ISSN = {0956-2478 1746-0301}, DOI = {10.1177/0956247808096125}, year = {2008}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1369, author = {Bashir, Rania Salah Eldien and Hassan, Osama Ahmed}, title = {A One Health perspective to identify environmental factors that affect Rift Valley fever transmission in Gezira state, Central Sudan}, journal = {Tropical Medicine and Health}, volume = {47}, number = {1}, pages = {54}, keywords = {Geographical information system Gezira state Multilevel logistic regression Normalized Difference Vegetation Index One Health Remote sensing Rift Valley fever Soil type Sudan}, ISSN = {1349-4147}, DOI = {10.1186/s41182-019-0178-1}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-019-0178-1}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1370, author = {Bastin, Jean-Francois and Finegold, Yelena and Garcia, Claude and Mollicone, Danilo and Rezende, Marcelo and Routh, Devin and Zohner, Constantin M. and Crowther, Thomas W.}, title = {The global tree restoration potential}, journal = {Science}, volume = {365}, number = {6448}, pages = {76}, abstract = {The restoration of forested land at a global scale could help capture atmospheric carbon and mitigate climate change. Bastin et al. used direct measurements of forest cover to generate a model of forest restoration potential across the globe (see the Perspective by Chazdon and Brancalion). Their spatially explicit maps show how much additional tree cover could exist outside of existing forests and agricultural and urban land. Ecosystems could support an additional 0.9 billion hectares of continuous forest. This would represent a greater than 25% increase in forested area, including more than 200 gigatonnes of additional carbon at maturity.Such a change has the potential to store an equivalent of 25% of the current atmospheric carbon pool.Science, this issue p. 76; see also p. 24The restoration of trees remains among the most effective strategies for climate change mitigation. We mapped the global potential tree coverage to show that 4.4 billion hectares of canopy cover could exist under the current climate. Excluding existing trees and agricultural and urban areas, we found that there is room for an extra 0.9 billion hectares of canopy cover, which could store 205 gigatonnes of carbon in areas that would naturally support woodlands and forests. This highlights global tree restoration as one of the most effective carbon drawdown solutions to date. However, climate change will alter this potential tree coverage. We estimate that if we cannot deviate from the current trajectory, the global potential canopy cover may shrink by ~223 million hectares by 2050, with the vast majority of losses occurring in the tropics. Our results highlight the opportunity of climate change mitigation through global tree restoration but also the urgent need for action.}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aax0848}, url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6448/76.abstract}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1371, author = {Basupi, Lenyeletse Vincent and Quinn, Claire H. and Dougill, Andrew J.}, title = {Adaptation strategies to environmental and policy change in semi-arid pastoral landscapes: Evidence from Ngamiland, Botswana}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {166}, pages = {17-27}, abstract = {Semi-arid rangeland pastoral areas have been affected by diverse pressures; livestock diseases, human-wildlife conflicts, droughts and resource scarcity as a result of fragmented landscapes that constrain pastoral livelihoods. In Botswana, pastoralists' adaptations remain insufficiently documented. Adaptation strategies are responses to livelihood constraints and if mainstreamed into development programmes can counter negative impacts arising from ecosystem deterioration. Using iterative participatory rural appraisal methods, this study examines adaptation strategies that pastoral societies in Ngamiland, Botswana have used to cope with pressures in their pastoral socio-ecological system. Findings show a move towards mixed and spatially varied livelihood strategies. Mixed agro-pastoral farming, intensification of flood recession farming, fishing and a network of self-help groups have developed over the last few decades of significant policy and environmental change. Pastoralists have become more sedentary with increases in petty trade and higher dependency on social welfare programmes. As the ability to adapt has positive attributes for livelihood sustainability and resilience, there is a need for practical initiatives that improve pastoralists' adaptive capacity, such as reforming pastoralists' institutions and expanding infrastructural development in pastoral areas so as to enable access to markets. These also include the need to share insights more widely across the district, nationally and regionally.}, keywords = {Socio-ecological system Land fragmentations Climate variability Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Coping strategies}, ISSN = {0140-1963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2019.01.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196319300102}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1372, author = {Bataille, Chris and Waisman, Henri and Colombier, Michel and Segafredo, Laura and Williams, Jim and Jotzo, Frank}, title = {The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy}, journal = {Climate Policy}, volume = {16}, number = {sup1}, pages = {S7-S26}, ISSN = {1469-3062}, DOI = {10.1080/14693062.2016.1173005}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1173005}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1373, author = {Bates, Amanda E. and Cooke, Robert S. C. and Duncan, Murray I. and Edgar, Graham J. and Bruno, John F. and Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro and Côté, Isabelle M. and Lefcheck, Jonathan S. and Costello, Mark John and Barrett, Neville and Bird, Tomas J. and Fenberg, Phillip B. and Stuart-Smith, Rick D.}, title = {Climate resilience in marine protected areas and the ‘Protection Paradox’}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {236}, pages = {305-314}, abstract = {Restricting human activities through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is assumed to create more resilient biological communities with a greater capacity to resist and recover following climate events. Here we review the evidence linking protection from local pressures (e.g., fishing and habitat destruction) with increased resilience. Despite strong theoretical underpinnings, studies have only rarely attributed resilience responses to the recovery of food webs and habitats, and increases in the diversity of communities and populations. When detected, resistance to ocean warming and recovery after extreme events in MPAs have small effect sizes against a backdrop of natural variability. By contrast, large die-offs are well described from MPAs following climate stress events. This may be in part because protection from one set of pressures or drivers (such as fishing) can select for species that are highly sensitive to others (such as warming), creating a ‘Protection Paradox’. Given that climate change is overwhelming the resilience capacity of marine ecosystems, the only primary solution is to reduce carbon emissions. High-quality monitoring data in both space and time can also identify emergent resilience signals that do exist, in combination with adequate reference data to quantify the initial system state. This knowledge will allow networks of diverse protected areas to incorporate spatial refugia against climate change, and identify resilient biological components of natural systems. Sufficient spatial replication further offers insurance against losses in any given MPA, and the possibility for many weak signals of resilience to accumulate.}, ISSN = {0006-3207}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320718308346}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1374, author = {Bathiany, Sebastian and Dakos, Vasilis and Scheffer, Marten and Lenton, Timothy M.}, title = {Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {4}, pages = {eaar5809}, DOI = {10.1126/sciadv.aar5809}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1375, author = {Battersby, J. and Hunter-Adams, J.}, title = {No Looking Back: [Food]ways Forward for Healthy African Cities in Light of Climate Change}, journal = {J Urban Health}, volume = {97}, number = {2}, pages = {226-229}, ISSN = {1099-3460 (Print) 1099-3460}, DOI = {10.1007/s11524-020-00429-7}, url = {https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11524-020-00429-7.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1376, author = {Baudoin, Marie-Ange and Sanchez, Aida Cuni and Fandohan, Belarmain}, title = {Small scale farmers’ vulnerability to climatic changes in southern Benin: the importance of farmers’ perceptions of existing institutions}, journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {1195-1207}, ISSN = {1573-1596}, DOI = {10.1007/s11027-013-9468-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9468-9}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1377, author = {Baudron, Frédéric and Tomscha, Stephanie A. and Powell, Bronwen and Groot, Jeroen C. J. and Gergel, Sarah E. and Sunderland, Terry}, title = {Testing the Various Pathways Linking Forest Cover to Dietary Diversity in Tropical Landscapes}, journal = {Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems}, volume = {3}, pages = {97}, abstract = {A diverse diet is important to address micronutrient deficiencies and other forms of malnutrition, one of the greatest challenges of today's food systems. In tropical countries, several studies have found a positive association between forest cover and dietary diversity, although the actual mechanisms of this has yet to be identified and quantified. Three complementary pathways may link forests to diets: a direct pathway (e.g., consumption of forest food), an income pathway (income from forest products used to purchase food from markets), and an agroecological pathway (forests and trees sustaining farm production). We used piece-wise structural equation modeling to test and quantify the relative contribution of these three pathways for households in seven tropical landscapes in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Nicaragua, and Zambia. We used survey data from 1,783 households and determined forest cover within a 2-km radius of each household. The quality of household diets was assessed through four indicators: household dietary diversity and consumption of fruits, vegetables, and meat, based on a 24-h recall. We found evidence of a direct pathway in four landscapes (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Zambia), an income pathway in none of the landscapes considered, and an agroecological pathway in three landscapes (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Indonesia). We also found evidence of improved crop and livestock production with greater forest cover in five landscapes (Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Indonesia). Conversely, we found negative associations between forest cover and crop and livestock production in three landscapes (Cameroon, Indonesia, and Zambia). In addition, we found evidence of forest cover being negatively related to at least one indicator of diet quality in three landscapes (Indonesia, Nicaragua, and Zambia) and to integration to the cash economy in three landscapes (Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Nicaragua). This is one of the first studies to quantify the different mechanisms linking forest cover and diet. Our work illuminates the fact that these mechanisms can vary significantly from one site to another, calling for site-specific interventions. Our results also suggest that the positive contributions of forests to rural livelihoods cannot be generalized and should not be idealized.}, ISSN = {2571-581X}, DOI = {10.3389/fsufs.2019.00097}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00097}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1378, author = {Baudron, Frédéric and Zaman-Allah, Mainassara Abdou and Chaipa, Isaac and Chari, Newton and Chinwada, Peter}, title = {Understanding the factors influencing fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) damage in African smallholder maize fields and quantifying its impact on yield. A case study in Eastern Zimbabwe}, journal = {Crop Protection}, volume = {120}, pages = {141-150}, abstract = {Fall armyworm (FAW, Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) is an invasive lepidopteran pest established in most of sub-Saharan Africa since 2016. Although the immediate reaction of governments has been to invest in chemical pesticides, control methods based on agronomic management would be more affordable to resource-constrained smallholders and minimize risks for health and the environment. However, little is known about the most effective agronomic practices that could control FAW under typical African smallholder conditions. In addition, the impact of FAW damage on yield in Africa has been reported as very large, but these estimates are mainly based on farmers' perceptions, and not on rigorous field scouting methods. Thus, the objectives of this study were to understand the factors influencing FAW damage in African smallholder maize fields and quantify its impact on yield, using two districts of Eastern Zimbabwe as cases. A total of 791 smallholder maize plots were scouted for FAW damage and the head of the corresponding farming household interviewed. Grain yield was later determined in about 20% of these fields. FAW damage was found to be significantly reduced by frequent weeding operations and by minimum- and zero-tillage. Conversely, pumpkin intercropping was found to significantly increase FAW damage. FAW damage was also found to be higher for some maize varieties, although these varieties may not be the lowest yielding. If the incidence of plants with FAW damage symptoms recorded in this research (32–48%, depending on the estimate used) is commensurate with what other studies conducted on the continent found, our best estimate of the impact of FAW damage on yield (11.57%) is much lower than what these studies reported. Although our study presents limitations, losses due to FAW damage in Africa could have been over-estimated. The threat that FAW represents for African smallholders, although very real, should not divert attention away from other pressing challenges they face.}, keywords = {Lepidopteran pests Integrated pest management Biocontrol Agronomic management Cultural control}, ISSN = {0261-2194}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2019.01.028}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261219419300304}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1379, author = {Bawakyillenuo, Simon and Yaro, Joseph Awetori and Teye, Joseph}, title = {Exploring the autonomous adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability in selected villages in the rural northern savannah zone of Ghana}, journal = {Local Environment}, volume = {21}, number = {3}, pages = {361-382}, ISSN = {1354-9839}, DOI = {10.1080/13549839.2014.965671}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2014.965671}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1380, author = {Beale, C. M. and Baker, N. E. and Brewer, M. J. and Lennon, J. J.}, title = {Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation}, journal = {Ecol Lett}, volume = {16}, number = {8}, pages = {1061-8}, keywords = {*Animal Distribution Animals Birds/*physiology *Climate Change *Conservation of Natural Resources Ecosystem Models, Biological Tanzania Time Factors Climate impacts conditional autoregressive models distribution change global change national parks occupancy models}, ISSN = {1461-0248 (Electronic) 1461-023X (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1111/ele.12139}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23782913}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1381, author = {Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. and Nelson, William A. and Paaijmans, Krijn P. and Read, Andrew F. and Thomas, Matthew B. and Bjørnstad, Ottar N.}, title = {The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk}, journal = {Royal Society Open Science}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {160969-160969}, keywords = {age structure delay-differential equations malaria risk mosquito population dynamics seasonality temperature fluctuation}, DOI = {10.1098/rsos.160969}, url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.160969}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1382, author = {Bedelian, C. and Ogutu, J. O.}, title = {Trade-offs for climate-resilient pastoral livelihoods in wildlife conservancies in the Mara ecosystem, Kenya}, journal = {Pastoralism}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {10}, keywords = {Conservancies Kenya Livestock grazing Livestock trends Maasai Mara Pastoral livelihoods}, ISSN = {2041-7136 (Print) 2041-7136 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1186/s13570-017-0085-1}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32055390}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1383, author = {Belesova, K. and Gornott, C. and Milner, J. and Sié, A. and Sauerborn, R. and Wilkinson, P.}, title = {Mortality impact of low annual crop yields in a subsistence farming population of Burkina Faso under the current and a 1.5°C warmer climate in 2100}, journal = {Sci Total Environ}, volume = {691}, pages = {538-548}, keywords = {Agriculture/methods/*statistics & numerical data Burkina Faso Climate *Climate Change Crops, Agricultural/*supply & distribution Food Supply Humans Mortality/*trends Agriculture Child mortality Climate change Crop yield Health Vulnerable population}, ISSN = {0048-9697}, DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.027}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1384, author = {Belhabib, Dyhia and Lam, Vicky W. Y. and Cheung, William W. L.}, title = {Overview of West African fisheries under climate change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of the artisanal and industrial sectors}, journal = {Marine Policy}, volume = {71}, pages = {15-28}, abstract = {Climate change affects ocean conditions, fish stocks and hence fisheries. In West Africa, climate change impacts on fisheries were projected to be mainly negative through multi-facet ways. However, analysis of adaptation responses of fishers to climate change impacts is scarce. This paper reviews the impacts on climate change on fisheries in West Africa and discusses the potential adaptation strategies adopted by both the artisanal and industrial fishing sectors. Overall, climate change and over-exploitation have altered species composition of fisheries catches in West Africa. The effect of ocean warming on fisheries is indicated by the increase in dominance of warmer water species in the landings, shown from an increase in Mean Temperature of Catch, in the region. Climate change induced changes in potential catch and species composition, which inherently have similar symptoms as over-exploitation, are expected to have repercussions on the economic and social performance of fisheries. Both artisanal and industrial sectors may adapt to these changes mainly through expansion of fishing ground that increases operation costs. Our results highlight that historical changes in target species are more common in industrial than artisanal fisheries. This result challenges the prevailing assumption that artisanal fisheries, given their limited movement capacity, would adapt to climate change by shifting target species and/or gear type.}, keywords = {Climate change Impact assessment Fisheries West Africa Adaptation}, ISSN = {0308-597X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.05.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X16302901}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1385, author = {Belhabib, Dyhia and Sumaila, U. Rashid and Le Billon, Philippe}, title = {The fisheries of Africa: Exploitation, policy, and maritime security trends}, journal = {Marine Policy}, volume = {101}, pages = {80-92}, abstract = {African maritime countries take the majority of their animal protein from fish. Bound with tradition and a promise of food and other values, African fisheries also provide a source of livelihood for over 35 million coastal fishers. Yet, as in many other regions of the world, the fishing sector is plagued with policy failures, and illegal activities. This paper summarizes the key points in the evolution of African fisheries in terms of exploitation, policy, and maritime security trends. It addresses how access to fishing by the small-scale sector is increasingly hindered by the increasing power and scope of an industrial fleet often involved in Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. It also discusses the impacts of ineffective enforcement against overexploitation and illegal fishing, piracy, human smuggling and climate-change risks for coastal communities, as well as policy measures and initiatives to reverse the existing trends.}, keywords = {African fisheries Fisheries exploitation Fisheries catch trends Policy and ocean governance Large Marine Ecosystem Maritime security}, ISSN = {0308-597X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.12.021}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X18305773}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1386, author = {Bendana, C.}, title = {African research projects are failing because funding agencies can’t match donor money}, journal = {Science}, DOI = {https://doi:10.1126/science.aax6796}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1387, author = {Bennett, Adam and Yukich, Josh and Miller, John M. and Keating, Joseph and Moonga, Hawela and Hamainza, Busiku and Kamuliwo, Mulakwa and Andrade-Pacheco, Ricardo and Vounatsou, Penelope and Steketee, Richard W. and Eisele, Thomas P.}, title = {The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006–2012}, journal = {Parasites & Vectors}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {431-431}, keywords = {Entomology Infectious Diseases Parasitology Tropical Medicine Veterinary Medicine/Veterinary Science Virology}, DOI = {10.1186/s13071-016-1693-0}, url = {http://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-016-1693-0}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1388, author = {Bennett, Amy C. and Dargie, Greta C. and Cuni-Sanchez, Aida and Tshibamba Mukendi, John and Hubau, Wannes and Mukinzi, Jacques M. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Malhi, Yadvinder and Sullivan, Martin J. P. and Cooper, Declan L. M. and Adu-Bredu, Stephen and Affum-Baffoe, Kofi and Amani, Christian A. and Banin, Lindsay F. and Beeckman, Hans and Begne, Serge K. and Bocko, Yannick E. and Boeckx, Pascal and Bogaert, Jan and Brncic, Terry and Chezeaux, Eric and Clark, Connie J. and Daniels, Armandu K. and de Haulleville, Thales and Djuikouo Kamdem, Marie-Noël and Doucet, Jean-Louis and Evouna Ondo, Fidèle and Ewango, Corneille E. N. and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Foli, Ernest G. and Gonmadje, Christelle and Hall, Jefferson S. and Hardy, Olivier J. and Harris, David J. and Ifo, Suspense A. and Jeffery, Kathryn J. and Kearsley, Elizabeth and Leal, Miguel and Levesley, Aurora and Makana, Jean-Remy and Mbayu Lukasu, Faustin and Medjibe, Vincent P. and Mihindu, Vianet and Moore, Sam and Nssi Begone, Natacha and Pickavance, Georgia C. and Poulsen, John R. and Reitsma, Jan and Sonké, Bonaventure and Sunderland, Terry C. H. and Taedoumg, Hermann and Talbot, Joey and Tuagben, Darlington S. and Umunay, Peter M. and Verbeeck, Hans and Vleminckx, Jason and White, Lee J. T. and Woell, Hannsjoerg and Woods, John T. and Zemagho, Lise and Lewis, Simon L.}, title = {Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {118}, number = {21}, pages = {e2003169118}, abstract = {The responses of tropical forests to heat and drought are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The 2015–2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation across the tropics, including in the very poorly studied African tropical forest region. We assess African forest ENSO responses using on-the-ground measurements. Across 100 long-term plots, record high temperatures did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality. Overall, despite the climate anomaly, forests continued to gain live biomass over the ENSO period. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest that they may be more resistant to climate extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015–2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015–2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha−1 y−1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.2003169118}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/118/21/e2003169118.abstract}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1389, author = {Bentley, Luke K. and Robertson, Mark P. and Barker, Nigel P.}, title = {Range contraction to a higher elevation: the likely future of the montane vegetation in South Africa and Lesotho}, journal = {Biodiversity and Conservation}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {131-153}, ISSN = {0960-3115 1572-9710}, DOI = {10.1007/s10531-018-1643-6}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1390, author = {Berdugo, Miguel and Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel and Soliveres, Santiago and Hernández-Clemente, Rocío and Zhao, Yanchuang and Gaitán, Juan J. and Gross, Nicolas and Saiz, Hugo and Maire, Vincent and Lehmann, Anika and Rillig, Matthias C. and Solé, Ricard V. and Maestre, Fernando T.}, title = {Global ecosystem thresholds driven by aridity}, journal = {Science}, volume = {367}, number = {6479}, pages = {787-790}, ISSN = {0036-8075, 1095-9203}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aay5958}, url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6479/787}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1391, author = {Beringer, Tim and Kulak, Michal and Müller, Christoph and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Jans, Yvonne}, title = {First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World’s major producer countries}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {034023}, abstract = {Modeling of climate change impacts have mainly been focused on a small number of annual staple crops that provide most of the world’s calories. Crop models typically do not represent perennial crops despite their high economic, nutritional, or cultural value. Here we assess climate change impacts on global tea production, chosen because of its high importance in culture and livelihoods of people around the world. We extended the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, global crop model to simulate the cultivation of tea plants. Simulated tea yields were validated and found in good agreement with historical observations as well as experiments on the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations. We then projected yields into the future under a range of climate scenarios from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Under current irrigation levels and lowest climate change scenarios, tea yields are expected to decrease in major producing countries. In most climate scenarios, we project that tea yields are set to increase in China, India, and Vietnam. However, yield losses are expected to affect Kenya, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. If abundant water supply and full irrigation is assumed for all tea cultivation areas, yields are projected to increase in all regions.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab649b}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab649b}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1392, author = {Berrang-Ford, Lea and Siders, A. R. and Lesnikowski, Alexandra and Fischer, Alexandra Paige and Callaghan, Max and Haddaway, Neal and Mach, Katharine and Araos, Malcolm and Shah, Mohammad Aminur Rahman and Wannewitz, Mia}, title = {A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-100873/v1}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1393, author = {Berthou, S. and Kendon, E. J. and Rowell, D. P. and Roberts, M. J. and Tucker, S. and Stratton, R. A.}, title = {Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection-Permitting Model}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {46}, number = {22}, pages = {13299-13307}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083544}, abstract = {Abstract Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection-parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5?km resolution convection-permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet-day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells, and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.}, keywords = {convection-permitting model rainfall intensification extreme rainfall climate change West Africa}, ISSN = {0094-8276}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083544}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083544}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1394, author = {Bett, B. and Kiunga, P. and Gachohi, J. and Sindato, C. and Mbotha, D. and Robinson, T. and Lindahl, J. and Grace, D.}, title = {Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of livestock diseases}, journal = {Preventive Veterinary Medicine}, volume = {137}, number = {Pt B}, pages = {119-129}, ISSN = {01675877}, DOI = {10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.11.019}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167587716306316}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1395, author = {Bettaieb, J. and Toumi, A. and Leffondre, K. and Ben Alaya, N. and Boukthir, A. and Chlif, S. and Hajem, S. and Ben Salah, A.}, title = {[Relationship between temperature and mortality in the city of Tunis: 2005-2007]}, journal = {Arch Inst Pasteur Tunis}, volume = {87}, number = {1-2}, pages = {25-33}, keywords = {Cause of Death *Climate Humans Mortality/*trends *Temperature Time Factors Tunisia/epidemiology Urban Health}, ISSN = {0020-2509 (Print) 0020-2509}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1396, author = {Betts, R. A. and Golding, N. and Gonzalez, P. and Gornall, J. and Kahana, R. and Kay, G. and Mitchell, L. and Wiltshire, A.}, title = {Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {1317-1338}, note = {BG}, ISSN = {1726-4189}, DOI = {10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015}, url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/12/1317/2015/}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1397, author = {Beymer-Farris, Betsy A. and Bassett, Thomas J.}, title = {The REDD menace: Resurgent protectionism in Tanzania's mangrove forests}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {332-341}, ISSN = {09593780}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.11.006}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1398, author = {Bezabih, Mintewab and Chambwera, Muyeye and Stage, Jesper}, title = {Climate change and total factor productivity in the Tanzanian economy}, journal = {Climate Policy}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {1289-1302}, ISSN = {1469-3062}, DOI = {10.1080/14693062.2011.579300}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2011.579300}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1399, author = {Biagetti, S.}, title = {Resilience in a Mountain Range: The Case of the Tadrart Acacus (Southwest Libya)}, journal = {Nomadic Peoples}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {268-285}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3197/np.2017.210205}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1400, author = {Biao, Eliézer}, title = {Assessing the impacts of climate change on river discharge dynamics in Oueme River Basin (Benin, West Africa)}, journal = {Hydrology}, volume = {4}, number = {4}, ISSN = {2306-5338}, DOI = {10.3390/hydrology4040047}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1401, author = {Bichet, A. and Diedhiou, A.}, title = {Less frequent and more intense rainfall along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea in West and Central Africa (1981-2014)}, journal = {Climate Research}, volume = {76}, number = {3}, pages = {191-201}, ISSN = {0936-577X 1616-1572}, DOI = {10.3354/cr01537}, url = {https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1106870005}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1402, author = {Bichet, A. and Diedhiou, A.}, title = {West African Sahel has become wetter during the last 30 years, but dry spells are shorter and more frequent}, journal = {Climate Research}, volume = {75}, number = {2}, pages = {155-162}, note = {10.3354/cr01515}, abstract = {ABSTRACT: Over the twentieth century, Sahel rainfall has undergone extreme variations on a decadal timescale. This study investigated the recent precipitation changes in West African Sahel using a high-resolution Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) product over the period 1981-2014. We found that the recent increase in precipitation results principally from an increase in the number of wet days (+10 d compared to the normal) over the entire West African Sahel band, along with an increase in the precipitation intensity over the central part of the West African Sahel (+3 mm d-1). However, this overall increase in precipitation is associated with dry spells that are becoming more frequent but on average shorter over the entire West African Sahel band (on average by 30%), and with precipitation intensity that is decreasing (around 3 mm d-1 during the study period) in the western part of the West African Sahel (Senegal). Such reorganization (i.e. weaker but more frequent precipitation) is expected to be beneficial for agriculture and society, reducing the likelihood of both flooding and droughts.}, ISSN = {Print ISSN: 0936-577X Online ISSN: 1616-1572}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01515}, url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v75/n2/p155-162/}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1403, author = {Bidassey-Manilal, S. and Wright, C. Y. and Engelbrecht, J. C. and Albers, P. N. and Garland, R. M. and Matooane, M.}, title = {Students' Perceived Heat-Health Symptoms Increased with Warmer Classroom Temperatures}, journal = {Int J Environ Res Public Health}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, keywords = {Adolescent Africa Female Heat Stress Disorders/*etiology/*physiopathology Hot Temperature/*adverse effects Humans Male Schools Students/*psychology Ventilation *South Africa *climate change *health *school *temperature}, ISSN = {1660-4601}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph13060566}, url = {https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/ijerph/ijerph-13-00566/article_deploy/ijerph-13-00566.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1404, author = {Biesbroek, Robbert and Peters, B. Guy and Tosun, Jale}, title = {Public Bureaucracy and Climate Change Adaptation}, journal = {Review of Policy Research}, volume = {35}, number = {6}, pages = {776-791}, ISSN = {1541-132X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ropr.12316}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ropr.12316}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @inproceedings{RN1405, author = {Birabi, Allan Kenneth and Nawangwe, Barnabas}, title = {Mitigating threats to local knowledge embedded in earthen architecture: the case of preserving African architectural semiotics}, editor = {Rainer, Leslie and Rivera, Angelyn Bass and Gandreau, David }, publisher = {Getty Publications}, pages = {104}, ISBN = {1606060430}, type = {Conference Proceedings} } @article{RN1406, author = {Birgen, Mathew K.}, title = {A Christian Ecological Theology from an African Christian Perspective}, journal = {ShahidiHub International Journal of Theology & Religious Studies}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {1-14}, keywords = {Christian theology Ecology Climate change African worldview Creation/Environment}, url = {https://ubipayroll.com/shahidihub/index.php/ijtrs/article/view/24}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1407, author = {Birkmann, Joern and Feldmeyer, Daniel and McMillan, Joanna Mary and Solecki, William and Totin, Edmond and Roberts, Debra C. and Trisos, Christopher and Jamshed, Ali and Boyd, Emily and Wrathall, David}, title = {Regional clusters of vulnerability show the need for transboundary cooperation}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, number = {9}, pages = {094052}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac1f43}, url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1f43}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1408, author = {Bishop-Williams, K. E. and Berrang-Ford, L. and Sargeant, J. M. and Pearl, D. L. and Lwasa, S. and Namanya, D. B. and Edge, V. L. and Cunsolo, A. and Huang, Y. and Ford, J. and Garcia, P. and Harper, S. L.}, title = {Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda}, journal = {Int J Environ Res Public Health}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, keywords = {Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Child Child, Preschool *Climate Change Disaster Planning/*methods Female *Health Services Needs and Demand Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Poisson Distribution Seasons Uganda *Weather Young Adult *Southwestern Uganda *climate change adaptation *hospital admissions *hospital planning *meteorological parameters *precipitation *season *temperature}, ISSN = {1660-4601}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph15112402}, url = {https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/ijerph/ijerph-15-02402/article_deploy/ijerph-15-02402.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1409, author = {Björkman-Nyqvist, Martina}, title = {Income shocks and gender gaps in education: Evidence from Uganda}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {105}, pages = {237-253}, abstract = {This paper uses exogenous variation in rainfall across districts in Uganda to estimate the causal effects of household income shocks on children's enrollment and academic performance conditional on gender. I find negative deviations in rainfall from the long-term mean to have negative and highly significant effects on female enrollment in primary schools and the effect grows stronger for older girls. I find no effect of rainfall variation on the enrollment of boys and young girls. Moreover, I find that when schooling is free of charge and both marginal boys and girls are enrolled, a negative income shock has an adverse effect on the test scores of female students while boys are not affected. The results imply that households respond to income shocks by varying the amount of schooling and resources provided to girls while boys are to a large extent sheltered — a finding consistent with a model where parents' values of child labor differ across sexes.}, keywords = {Rainfall Education Test scores Gender}, ISSN = {0304-3878}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387813001120}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1410, author = {Bjornlund, H. and van Rooyen, A. and Pittock, J. and Parry, K. and Moyo, M. and Mdemu, M. and de Sousa, W.}, title = {Institutional innovation and smart water management technologies in small-scale irrigation schemes in southern Africa}, journal = {Water International}, volume = {45}, number = {6}, pages = {621-650}, ISSN = {0250-8060}, DOI = {10.1080/02508060.2020.1804715}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2020.1804715}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1411, author = {Blasiak, Robert and Spijkers, Jessica and Tokunaga, Kanae and Pittman, Jeremy and Yagi, Nobuyuki and Österblom, Henrik}, title = {Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e0179632}, abstract = {Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries’ adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0179632}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0179632}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1412, author = {Blicharska, Malgorzata and Smithers, Richard J. and Kuchler, Magdalena and Agrawal, Ganesh K. and Gutiérrez, José M. and Hassanali, Ahmed and Huq, Saleemul and Koller, Silvia H. and Marjit, Sugata and Mshinda, Hassan M. and Masjuki, Hj Hassan and Solomons, Noel W. and Staden, Johannes Van and Mikusiński, Grzegorz}, title = {Steps to overcome the North–South divide in research relevant to climate change policy and practice}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {21-27}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3163}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3163}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1413, author = {Bloomfield, Laura S. P. and McIntosh, Tyler L. and Lambin, Eric F.}, title = {Habitat fragmentation, livelihood behaviors, and contact between people and nonhuman primates in Africa}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {985-1000}, abstract = {Deforestation and landscape fragmentation have been identified as processes enabling direct transmission of zoonotic infections. Certain human behaviors provide opportunities for direct contact between humans and wild nonhuman primates (NHPs), but are often missing from studies linking landscape level factors and observed infectious diseases.}, ISSN = {1572-9761}, DOI = {10.1007/s10980-020-00995-w}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-00995-w}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1414, author = {Blumstein, Sabine and Petersen-Perlman, Jacob D.}, title = {When the water runs dry: supporting adaptive governance in transboundary river basins}, journal = {Water International}, volume = {46}, number = {3}, pages = {306-324}, ISSN = {0250-8060}, DOI = {10.1080/02508060.2021.1877984}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2021.1877984}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1415, author = {Boansi, David and Tambo, Justice A. and Müller, Marc}, title = {Analysis of farmers’ adaptation to weather extremes in West African Sudan Savanna}, journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes}, volume = {16}, number = {March}, pages = {1-13}, keywords = {Adaptation Direct measures Sudan Savanna Supportive measures Weather extremes}, DOI = {10.1016/j.wace.2017.03.001}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.03.001}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1416, author = {Boas, Ingrid and Farbotko, Carol and Adams, Helen and Sterly, Harald and Bush, Simon and van der Geest, Kees and Wiegel, Hanne and Ashraf, Hasan and Baldwin, Andrew and Bettini, Giovanni and Blondin, Suzy and de Bruijn, Mirjam and Durand-Delacre, David and Fröhlich, Christiane and Gioli, Giovanna and Guaita, Lucia and Hut, Elodie and Jarawura, Francis X. and Lamers, Machiel and Lietaer, Samuel and Nash, Sarah L. and Piguet, Etienne and Rothe, Delf and Sakdapolrak, Patrick and Smith, Lothar and Tripathy Furlong, Basundhara and Turhan, Ethemcan and Warner, Jeroen and Zickgraf, Caroline and Black, Richard and Hulme, Mike}, title = {Climate migration myths}, volume = {9}, pages = {901-903}, keywords = {Climate change Policy}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-019-0633-3}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0640-4}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1417, author = {Boavida-Portugal, Joana and Rosa, Rui and Calado, Ricardo and Pinto, Maria and Boavida-Portugal, Inês and Araújo, Miguel B. and Guilhaumon, François}, title = {Climate change impacts on the distribution of coastal lobsters}, journal = {Marine Biology}, volume = {165}, number = {12}, pages = {186}, ISSN = {1432-1793}, DOI = {10.1007/s00227-018-3441-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-018-3441-9}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1418, author = {Bodian, Ansoumana and Dezetter, Alain and Diop, Lamine and Deme, Abdoulaye and Djaman, Koffi and Diop, Aliou}, title = {Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia}, journal = {Hydrology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, ISSN = {2306-5338}, DOI = {10.3390/hydrology5010021}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1419, author = {Bodunrin, Itunu Ayodeji}, title = {Hip-hop and Decolonized Practices of Language Digitization among the Contemporary !Xun and Khwe Indigenous Youth of South Africa}, journal = {Critical Arts}, volume = {33}, number = {4-5}, pages = {174-190}, ISSN = {0256-0046}, DOI = {10.1080/02560046.2019.1702070}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02560046.2019.1702070}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1420, author = {Boeckmann, Melanie and Roux, Thomas and Robinson, Matthew and Areal, Ashtyn and Durusu, Dilara and Wernecke, Bianca and Manyuchi, Albert and Pham, Minh and Wang, Chongying and Hetem, Robyn and Harden, Lois and Vargas, Emily and Wright, Caradee and Erasmus, Barend and Rees, Helen and Vogel, Coleen and Wang, Shanshan and Black, Vivian and Mabhikwa, Mellisa and Chersich, Matthew}, title = {Climate change and control of diarrhoeal diseases in South Africa: Priorities for action}, journal = {South African Medical Journal}, volume = {109}, pages = {359}, DOI = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i6.14075}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1421, author = {Boedecker, Julia and Termote, Céline and Assogbadjo, Achille Ephrem and Van Damme, Patrick and Lachat, Carl}, title = {Dietary contribution of Wild Edible Plants to women’s diets in the buffer zone around the Lama forest, Benin – an underutilized potential}, journal = {Food Security}, volume = {6}, number = {6}, pages = {833-849}, abstract = {Rural populations in developing countries face food insecurity and malnutrition despite being surrounded by extraordinary biodiversity. The international community increasingly recognizes the role of agro-biodiversity and Wild Edible Plants (WEPs) in their contributions to managing risk and building resilience and sustainable food systems. Studies on real contributions of WEPs to peoples’ diets, however, are uncommon. This study assessed the contribution of WEPs to diets of women living in the buffer zone of the Lama forest in southern Benin. During the long dry season, a cross-sectional survey was carried out on 120 women, covering their knowledge and attitudes towards WEPs and two non-consecutive 24-h recalls of their WEP consumption. Contribution of WEPs to total dietary intake was low due to infrequent use and small portion sizes. The highest nutrient contributions of WEPs measured were for copper (13.9 %) and iron (4.6 %) but the majority of the women had intake values below the Estimated Average Requirements (EARs) for these elements - copper 65 % and iron 91 % Women’s dietary diversity was significantly higher among WEP consumers than non-consumers, mainly due to higher consumption of dark green leafy vegetables. WEPs were less consumed as a replacement for other foods but rather as a complement to the diet. The study population generally appreciated WEPs, while some constraints were reported regarding preparation, conservation and commercialization. Before widely promoting WEP consumption in order to exploit their dietary potential, additional investigations are needed into their nutrient composition, cultural and market value, their sustainable harvest levels and possible integration into innovative farming systems.}, ISSN = {1876-4525}, DOI = {10.1007/s12571-014-0396-7}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0396-7}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1422, author = {Bogale, Ayalneh and Korf, Benedikt}, title = {To share or not to share? (non-)violence, scarcity and resource access in Somali Region, Ethiopia}, journal = {The Journal of Development Studies}, volume = {43}, number = {4}, pages = {743-765}, ISSN = {0022-0388}, DOI = {10.1080/00220380701260093}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380701260093}, year = {2007}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1423, author = {Bohannon, John}, title = {Who's downloading pirated papers? Everyone}, journal = {Science}, volume = {352}, number = {6285}, pages = {508-512}, DOI = {10.1126/science.352.6285.508}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.352.6285.508}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1424, author = {Bolden, Isaiah W. and Seroy, Sasha K. and Roberts, Emily A. and Schmeisser, Lauren and Koehn, J. Zachary and Rilometo, Canita H. and Odango, Emerson Lopez and Barros, Corrin and Sachs, Julian P. and Klinger, Terrie}, title = {Climate-related community knowledge networks as a tool to increase learning in the context of environmental change}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {21}, pages = {1-6}, keywords = {Knowledge network Climate change Climate variability Adaptive capacity Learning exchange Pacific islands}, ISSN = {2212-0963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.04.004}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300081}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1425, author = {Bond, William and Zaloumis, Nicholas P.}, title = {The deforestation story: testing for anthropogenic origins of Africa's flammable grassy biomes}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, volume = {371}, number = {1696}, pages = {20150170}, DOI = {10.1098/rstb.2015.0170}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0170}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1426, author = {Bond, William J. and Stevens, Nicola and Midgley, Guy F. and Lehmann, Caroline E. R.}, title = {The Trouble with Trees: Afforestation Plans for Africa}, journal = {Trends in Ecology & Evolution}, volume = {34}, number = {11}, pages = {963-965}, abstract = {Extensive tree planting is widely promoted for reducing atmospheric CO2. In Africa, 1 million km2, mostly of grassy biomes, have been targeted for ‘restoration’ by 2030. The target is based on the erroneous assumption that these biomes are deforested and degraded. We discuss the pros and cons of exporting fossil fuel emission problems to Africa.}, keywords = {carbon sequestration savannas afforestation}, ISSN = {0169-5347}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.08.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534719302526}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1427, author = {Boone, Randall B. and Conant, Richard T. and Sircely, Jason and Thornton, Philip K. and Herrero, Mario}, title = {Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {24}, number = {3}, pages = {1382-1393}, keywords = {annual net primary production forage biomass G-Range global rangeland simulator livestock plant cover change plant functional groups}, ISSN = {1365-2486}, DOI = {10.1111/gcb.13995}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13995 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13995 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/gcb.13995}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1428, author = {Booth, Ben B. B. and Dunstone, Nick J. and Halloran, Paul R. and Andrews, Timothy and Bellouin, Nicolas}, title = {Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {484}, number = {7393}, pages = {228-232}, abstract = {A state-of-the-art climate model shows that radiative forcing due to anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols explains the variability in sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic between 1950 and 2005.}, ISSN = {1476-4687}, DOI = {10.1038/nature10946}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10946}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1429, author = {Booysen, M. J. and Visser, M. and Burger, R.}, title = {Temporal case study of household behavioural response to Cape Town's “Day Zero” using smart meter data}, journal = {Water Research}, volume = {149}, pages = {414-420}, abstract = {Faced with the threat of “Day Zero”, when it was feared that Cape Town's taps could run dry, consumers reduced household water usage from 540 to 280 L per household per day over the 36 months between January 2015 and January 2018. This paper describes the events that prompted this reduction. We look at how changes in water use were affected by official announcements and by public engagement with this news via the social media activity and internet searches. We analysed the water usage of a subset of middle to high income households where smart hot and cold water meters were installed. For hot water usage patterns we compared meter readings with that in another area unaffected by the drought. We further map our cold water smart meter readings against that of the City of Cape Town's municipal data for domestic freestanding households — a sample of more than 400,000 households. We found that the introduction of Level 5 restrictions had a perverse effect on consumption, possibly due to confusing messages. The most dramatic change in behaviour appears to have been instigated by a media storm and consequent user panic after the release of the City's Critical Water Shortages Disaster Plan in October 2017. However, contradictory communication from national and provincial government eroded some of this gain. The paper concludes with recommendations for demand management in a similar future scenario.}, keywords = {Drought response Demand side management User behaviour Household water usage Time-of-day analysis Smart water meters Cape town drought}, ISSN = {0043-1354}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.11.035}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135418309564}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1430, author = {Borderon, Marion and Sakdapolrak, Patrick and Muttarak, Raya and Kebede, Endale and Pagogna, Raffaella and Sporer, Eva}, title = {Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence}, journal = {Demographic Research}, volume = {41}, pages = {491-544}, DOI = {10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.18}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1431, author = {Bosetti, Valentina and Cattaneo, Cristina and Peri, Giovanni}, title = {Should they stay or should they go? Climate Migrants and Local Conflicts}, journal = {National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 24447}, DOI = {10.3386/w24447}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w24447}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1432, author = {Bosman, Gerhard and Van der Westhuizen, Diaan}, title = {The effects of climatic conditions on attitudinal changes towards earth construction in South Africa: review article}, journal = {Acta Structilia : Journal for the Physical and Development Sciences}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {117-141}, DOI = {10.10520/EJC160907}, url = {https://doi.org/10.10520/EJC160907}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1433, author = {Boswell, Rosabelle}, title = {Challenges to identifying and managing intangible cultural heritage in Mauritius, Zanzibar and Seychelles}, publisher = {CODESRIA}, address = {Dakar, Senegal}, series = {CODESRIA Monograph Series}, ISBN = {978-2-86978-215-0}, url = {https://muse.jhu.edu/book/16808}, year = {2008}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1434, author = {Bouma, M. J. and Siraj, A. S. and Rodo, X. and Pascual, M.}, title = {El Niño-based malaria epidemic warning for Oromia, Ethiopia, from August 2016 to July 2017}, journal = {Tropical Medicine & International Health}, volume = {21}, number = {11}, pages = {1481-1488}, keywords = {El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation Nino epidemic warning ethiopia malaria}, DOI = {10.1111/tmi.12776}, url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/tmi.12776}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1435, author = {Bouregaa, Tarek}, title = {Impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of rainfed crops in the Setif region}, journal = {Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {851-863}, abstract = {Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show the impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of three rainfed crops in Setif region. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates likely changes in annual temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North East of Algeria) among three future periods: 2025, 2050 and 2075. The projections are based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3 v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the four selected general circulation models (GCMs) output data. The expected impact of climate change on yield and water requirement of winter wheat, barley and olive was evaluated using the CROPWAT model. Findings The projection of the four GCMs showed that average temperature will increase by 0.73 to 3.42°C, and the precipitation will decrease by 1 to 52.7 percent, across the three future periods under the two SRES scenarios. Winter wheat and olive yields are expected to decrease under the three types of soils (heavy, medium and light). However, barley yield is expected to reduce under light soil only. Crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements are expected to increase under the two scenarios and across the three future periods. Originality/value This research is one of the first to study the impact of future climate change on water requirement and yield of rainfed crops over Setif region.}, ISSN = {1477-7835}, DOI = {10.1108/MEQ-06-2018-0110}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1108/MEQ-06-2018-0110}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1436, author = {Boyce, Ross and Reyes, Raquel and Matte, Michael and Ntaro, Moses and Mulogo, Edgar and Metlay, Joshua P. and Band, Lawrence and Siedner, Mark J.}, title = {Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change}, journal = {Journal of Infectious Diseases}, volume = {214}, number = {9}, pages = {1403-1410}, keywords = {malaria}, DOI = {10.1093/infdis/jiw363}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/jid/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiw363}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1437, author = {Bozzola, Martina and Smale, Melinda}, title = {The welfare effects of crop biodiversity as an adaptation to climate shocks in Kenya}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {135}, pages = {105065}, abstract = {This paper investigates the effects of crop biodiversity on farm income and production risk using a large panel dataset of rural households in Kenya. We consider three different metrics of in situ (on-farm) crop diversification (richness, evenness and concentration). We apply a partial moments-based model to test the effects of each strategy on welfare defined as expected crop income, variability (variance) and downside risk (skewness). Our comprehensive econometric approach differentiates climatic shocks, weather and climate change. The results suggest that the benefits from greater diversification in terms of enhanced land productivity and lower production costs could surpass the foregone benefit from greater efficiency associated with more concentrated production systems. Crop richness and evenness each reduce exposure to crop income risk, especially for more vulnerable farmers who produce below the expected revenue threshold. Farmers who rely on greater crop specialization, on the contrary, are more exposed to crop income risk.}, keywords = {Crop diversification Smallholder farmer Vulnerability Kenya}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105065}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20301911}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1438, author = {Bradshaw, Corey J. A. and Sodhi, Navjot S. and Peh, Kelvin S. H. and Brook, Barry W.}, title = {Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {13}, number = {11}, pages = {2379-2395}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x}, abstract = {Abstract With the wide acceptance of forest-protection policies in the developing world comes a requirement for clear demonstrations of how deforestation may erode human well-being and economies. For centuries, it has been believed that forests provide protection against flooding. However, such claims have given rise to a heated polemic, and broad-scale quantitative evidence of the possible role of forests in flood protection has not been forthcoming. Using data collected from 1990 to 2000 from 56 developing countries, we show using generalized linear and mixed-effects models contrasted with information-theoretic measures of parsimony that flood frequency is negatively correlated with the amount of remaining natural forest and positively correlated with natural forest area loss (after controlling for rainfall, slope and degraded landscape area). The most parsimonious models accounted for over 65% of the variation in flood frequency, of which nearly 14% was due to forest cover variables alone. During the decade investigated, nearly 100?000 people were killed and 320 million people were displaced by floods, with total reported economic damages exceeding US$1151 billion. Extracted measures of flood severity (flood duration, people killed and displaced, and total damage) showed some weaker, albeit detectable correlations to natural forest cover and loss. Based on an arbitrary decrease in natural forest area of 10%, the model-averaged prediction of flood frequency increased between 4% and 28% among the countries modeled. Using the same hypothetical decline in natural forest area resulted in a 4?8% increase in total flood duration. These correlations suggest that global-scale patterns in mean forest trends across countries are meaningful with respect to flood dynamics. Unabated loss of forests may increase or exacerbate the number of flood-related disasters, negatively impact millions of poor people, and inflict trillions of dollars in damage in disadvantaged economies over the coming decades. This first global-scale empirical demonstration that forests are correlated with flood risk and severity in developing countries reinforces the imperative for large-scale forest protection to protect human welfare, and suggests that reforestation may help to reduce the frequency and severity of flood-related catastrophes.}, keywords = {conservation damage flooding events forest loss generalized linear mixed-effects models generalized linear models human displacement projected costs rainfall}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x}, year = {2007}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1439, author = {Brancalion, Pedro H. S. and Broadbent, Eben N. and de-Miguel, Sergio and Cardil, Adrián and Rosa, Marcos R. and Almeida, Catherine T. and Almeida, Danilo R. A. and Chakravarty, Shourish and Zhou, Mo and Gamarra, Javier G. P. and Liang, Jingjing and Crouzeilles, Renato and Hérault, Bruno and Aragão, Luiz E. O. C. and Silva, Carlos Alberto and Almeyda-Zambrano, Angelica M.}, title = {Emerging threats linking tropical deforestation and the COVID-19 pandemic}, journal = {Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {243-246}, abstract = {Tropical deforestation drivers are complex and can change rapidly in periods of profound societal transformation, such as those during a pandemic. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred illegal, opportunistic forest clearing in tropical countries, threatening forest ecosystems and their resident human communities. A total of 9583km2 of deforestation alerts from Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) were detected across the global tropics during the first month following the implementation of confinement measures of local governments to reduce COVID-19 spread, which is nearly double that of 2019 (4732km2). We present a conceptual framework linking tropical deforestation and the current pandemic. Zoonotic diseases, public health, economy, agriculture, and forests may all be reciprocally linked in complex positive and negative feedback loops with overarching consequences. We highlight the emerging threats to nature and society resulting from this complex reciprocal interplay and possible policy interventions that could minimize these threats.}, keywords = {Tropical forests Land use change Deforestation drivers Coronavirus Zoonotic diseases Environmental policy}, ISSN = {2530-0644}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2020.09.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2530064420300584}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1440, author = {Brandt, Martin and Hiernaux, Pierre and Rasmussen, Kjeld and Tucker, Compton J. and Wigneron, Jean-Pierre and Diouf, Abdoul Aziz and Herrmann, Stefanie M. and Zhang, Wenmin and Kergoat, Laurent and Mbow, Cheikh and Abel, Christin and Auda, Yves and Fensholt, Rasmus}, title = {Changes in rainfall distribution promote woody foliage production in the Sahel}, journal = {Communications Biology}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {133}, abstract = {Dryland ecosystems comprise a balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. Climate change impacts rainfall timing, which may alter the respective contributions of woody and herbaceous plants on the total vegetation production. Here, we apply 30 years of field-measured woody foliage and herbaceous mass from Senegal and document a faster increase in woody foliage mass (+17 kg ha−1 yr−1) as compared to herbaceous mass (+3 kg ha−1 yr−1). Annual rainfall trends were partitioned into core wet-season rains (+0.7 mm yr-1), supporting a weak but periodic (5-year cycles) increase in herbaceous mass, and early/late rains (+2.1 mm yr−1), explaining the strongly increased woody foliage mass. Satellite observations confirm these findings for the majority of the Sahel, with total herbaceous/woody foliage mass increases by 6%/20%. We conclude that the rainfall recovery in the Sahel does not benefit herbaceous vegetation to the same extent as woody vegetation, presumably favoured by increased early/late rains.}, ISSN = {2399-3642}, DOI = {10.1038/s42003-019-0383-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-019-0383-9}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1441, author = {Brandt, Martin and Rasmussen, Kjeld and Peñuelas, Josep and Tian, Feng and Schurgers, Guy and Verger, Aleixandre and Mertz, Ole and Palmer, John R. B. and Fensholt, Rasmus}, title = {Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Nature Ecology & Evolution}, volume = {1}, number = {4}, pages = {1-6}, ISSN = {2397-334X}, DOI = {10.1038/s41559-017-0081}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0081}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1442, author = {Braveman, Paula and Gottlieb, Laura}, title = {The Social Determinants of Health: It's Time to Consider the Causes of the Causes}, journal = {Public Health Reports}, volume = {129}, number = {1_suppl2}, pages = {19-31}, ISSN = {0033-3549}, DOI = {10.1177/00333549141291S206}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00333549141291S206}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1443, author = {Breitbarth, T.}, title = {Analysis of ex-ante economic models for Green Climate Fund adaptation projects in Africa}, institution = {Green Climate Fund}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1444, author = {Bren d’Amour, Christopher and Wenz, Leonie and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Christoph Steckel, Jan and Creutzig, Felix}, title = {Teleconnected food supply shocks}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {035007}, abstract = {The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1445, author = {Breu, T. and Bader, C. and Messerli, P. and Heinimann, A. and Rist, S. and Eckert, S.}, title = {Large-scale land acquisition and its effects on the water balance in investor and host countries}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {e0150901}, note = {Breu, Thomas Bader, Christoph Messerli, Peter Heinimann, Andreas Rist, Stephan Eckert, Sandra eng Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't PLoS One. 2016 Mar 4;11(3):e0150901. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0150901. eCollection 2016.}, abstract = {This study examines the validity of the assumption that international large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is motivated by the desire to secure control over water resources, which is commonly referred to as 'water grabbing'. This assumption was repeatedly expressed in recent years, ascribing the said motivation to the Gulf States in particular. However, it must be considered of hypothetical nature, as the few global studies conducted so far focused primarily on the effects of LSLA on host countries or on trade in virtual water. In this study, we analyse the effects of 475 intended or concluded land deals recorded in the Land Matrix database on the water balance in both host and investor countries. We also examine how these effects relate to water stress and how they contribute to global trade in virtual water. The analysis shows that implementation of the LSLAs in our sample would result in global water savings based on virtual water trade. At the level of individual LSLA host countries, however, water use intensity would increase, particularly in 15 sub-Saharan states. From an investor country perspective, the analysis reveals that countries often suspected of using LSLA to relieve pressure on their domestic water resources--such as China, India, and all Gulf States except Saudi Arabia--invest in agricultural activities abroad that are less water-intensive compared to their average domestic crop production. Conversely, large investor countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Japan are disproportionately externalizing crop water consumption through their international land investments. Statistical analyses also show that host countries with abundant water resources are not per se favoured targets of LSLA. Indeed, further analysis reveals that land investments originating in water-stressed countries have only a weak tendency to target areas with a smaller water risk.}, keywords = {Agriculture Conservation of Natural Resources Internationality Investments Water}, ISSN = {1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0150901}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26943794}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1446, author = {Brimblecombe, P. and Bonazza, A. and Brooks, N. and Sampedro, G. and Harris, I. and Sabbioni, C.}, title = {Impact of Climate Change on Earthen Buildings}, booktitle = {Terra 2008: The 10th International Conference on the Study and Conservation of Earthen Architectural Heritage "}, editor = {Rainer, L. H and Rivera, A. B. and Gandreau, D.}, publisher = {Getty Conservation Institute, Getty Publications}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {278-282}, year = {2011}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1447, author = {Brink, Ebba and Aalders, Theodor and Ádám, Dóra and Feller, Robert and Henselek, Yuki and Hoffmann, Alexander and Ibe, Karin and Matthey-Doret, Aude and Meyer, Moritz and Negrut, N. Lucian and Rau, Anna-Lena and Riewerts, Bente and von Schuckmann, Lukas and Törnros, Sara and von Wehrden, Henrik and Abson, David J. and Wamsler, Christine}, title = {Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {36}, pages = {111-123}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction Ecosystem-based management Ecosystem services cascade model Green and blue infrastructure Nature-based solutions Resilience}, ISSN = {09593780}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.003}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300674}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1448, author = {Brinkman, Marnix and Levin-Koopman, Jason and Wicke, Birka and Shutes, Lindsay and Kuiper, Marijke and Faaij, André and van der Hilst, Floor}, title = {The distribution of food security impacts of biofuels, a Ghana case study}, journal = {Biomass and Bioenergy}, volume = {141}, pages = {105695}, keywords = {Food security Biofuel mandate Developing country Nutrition Household CGEmodel}, ISSN = {0961-9534}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105695}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0961953420302294}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1449, author = {Briske, David D.}, title = {Rangeland Systems: Processes, Management and Challenges}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, series = {Springer Series on Environmental Management}, ISBN = {978-3-319-46707-8 978-3-319-46709-2}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-319-46709-2}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-46709-2}, year = {2017}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1450, author = {Brito, José C. and Naia, Marisa}, title = {Coping with Sea-Level Rise in African Protected Areas: Priorities for Action and Adaptation Measures}, journal = {BioScience}, volume = {70}, number = {10}, pages = {924-932}, ISSN = {0006-3568 1525-3244}, DOI = {10.1093/biosci/biaa087}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa087}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1451, author = {Britton, A. W. and Day, J. J. and Doble, C. J. and Ngatunga, B. P. and Kemp, K. M. and Carbone, C. and Murrell, D. J.}, title = {Terrestrial-focused protected areas are effective for conservation of freshwater fish diversity in Lake Tanganyika}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {212}, pages = {120-129}, ISSN = {00063207}, DOI = {10.1016/j.biocon.2017.06.001}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0006320717300733}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1452, author = {Brockhaus, Maria and Djoudi, Houria and Locatelli, Bruno}, title = {Envisioning the future and learning from the past: Adapting to a changing environment in northern Mali}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {25}, pages = {94-106}, keywords = {Climate change Adaptation Coping Adaptive strategies Perception Forest ecosystem Pastoralism Migration Mali}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.08.008}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901112001414}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1453, author = {Brockington, D. and Wilkie, D.}, title = {Protected areas and poverty}, journal = {Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci}, volume = {370}, number = {1681}, keywords = {Animals Biodiversity Conservation of Natural Resources/*economics Ecosystem Humans Parks, Recreational/economics Policy Making *Poverty conservation displacement environmental regulation livelihoods parks well-being}, ISSN = {1471-2970 (Electronic) 0962-8436 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1098/rstb.2014.0271}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26460124}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1454, author = {Brodnik, C. and Holden, J. and Marino, R. and Wright, A. and Copa, V. and Rogers, B. and Arifin, H. S. and Brown, R. and Djaja, K. and Farrelly, M. and Kaswanto, R. L. and Marsudiantoro, D. and Marthanty, D. and Maryonoputri, L. and Payne, E. and Purwanto, M. and Lovering, D. R. and Suharnoto, Y. and Sumabrata, J. and Suwarso, R. and Syaukat, Y. and Urich, C. and Yuliantoro, D.}, title = {Jumping to the top: catalysts for leapfrogging to a water sensitive city}, journal = {IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science}, volume = {179}, pages = {012034}, abstract = {Climate change, population growth and rapid urbanisation have severe implications for cities and the way in which they interact with water. As a response to these challenges the water sensitive cities concept emerged, which supports cities to become more resilient to these challenges while making them more prosperous, sustainable and liveable. A water sensitive city harnesses the whole water cycle through integrated water management solutions, designs beautiful blue and green urban spaces and comprises healthy communities who are strongly connected with each other and with their local environment. Indonesian cities have an opportunity to ‘leapfrog’ towards a water sensitive city and to bypass the negative consequences that have resulted from urbanisation and growth that developed countries have gone through. Contributing to this growing field of research, this paper synthesizes key insights from the transformative change, sustainable urban water management and leapfrogging literature. The paper defines what leapfrogging to a water sensitive city means and describes three catalysts that facilitate this transition: trans-disciplinary science, cross sectoral collaboration and innovation experiments. The paper also introduces a joint Australian-Indonesian research program that develops water sensitive city leapfrogging strategies by translating these catalysts into practice.}, ISSN = {1755-1315}, DOI = {10.1088/1755-1315/179/1/012034}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/179/1/012034}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1455, author = {Brooks, C.}, title = {Will climate change undermine the potential for hydropower in Africa?}, institution = {Oxford Management Policy}, url = {https://www.opml.co.uk/blog/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-hydropower-in-africa}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1456, author = {Brooks, Nick and Clarke, Joanne and Ngaruiya, Grace Wambui and Wangui, Elizabeth Edna}, title = {African heritage in a changing climate}, journal = {Azania: Archaeological Research in Africa}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, pages = {297-328}, ISSN = {0067-270X 1945-5534}, DOI = {10.1080/0067270x.2020.1792177}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/0067270X.2020.1792177}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1457, author = {Brooks, Nick and Neil Adger, W. and Mick Kelly, P.}, title = {The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {151-163}, keywords = {Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Indicators National-level Risk Mortality Delphi survey Governance Literacy Health}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378004000913}, year = {2005}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1458, author = {Broto, Vanesa Castán and Boyd, Emily and Ensor, Jonathan}, title = {Participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in coastal cities: lessons from a pilot experience in Maputo, Mozambique}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {13}, pages = {11-18}, ISSN = {18773435}, DOI = {10.1016/j.cosust.2014.12.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343514001213}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1459, author = {Brown, Josephine R. and Brierley, Chris M. and An, Soon-Il and Guarino, Maria Vittoria and Stevenson, Samantha and Williams, Charles J.R. and Zhang, Qiong and Zhao, Anni and Braconnot, Pascale and Brady, Esther C. and Chandan, Deepak and D'Agostino, Roberta and Guo, Chuncheng and LeGrande, Allegra N. and Lohmann, Gerrit and Morozova, Polina A. and Ohgaito, Rumi and O'ishi, Ryouta and Otto-Bliesner, Bette and Peltier, Richard W. and Shi, Xiaoxu and Sime, Louise and Volodin, Evgeny M. and Zhang, Zhongshi and Weipeng, Zheng}, title = {Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models}, journal = {Climate of the Past Discussions}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-155}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1460, author = {Brown, Louise and Polycarp, Clifford and Spearman, Margaret}, title = {Within Reach. Strengthening Country Ownership and Accountability in Accessing Climate Finance}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {wri.org/publication/ownership-andaccountability-in-climate-finance}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1461, author = {Bruno, John F. and Côté, Isabelle M. and Toth, Lauren T.}, title = {Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?}, journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {307-334}, abstract = {Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change?the root cause of global coral decline.}, ISSN = {1941-1405}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095300}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095300}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1462, author = {Brüssow, Kathleen and Faße, Anja and Grote, Ulrike}, title = {Implications of climate-smart strategy adoption by farm households for food security in Tanzania}, journal = {Food Security}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {1203-1218}, abstract = {As the climate changes, farmers in developing countries seek to employ strategies to help them sustain food production. The objectives of this paper were to identify adaptation strategies in response to climate change and the determinants for their adoption, and to explore the impact of these strategies on food security. The analysis was based on a survey of 900 small-scale farmers in a semi-arid (Dodoma) and a semi-humid (Morogoro) region in Tanzania. Farmers in the semi-humid region tended to diversify their crops, i.e. added additional crop types. Given the more challenging environment in the semi-arid region, farmers there changed their portfolio of crops, i.e. substituted some crops or cultivars with others. Logistic regressions highlighted higher tolerance to risk, land ownership, education and experiences of farmers as drivers of adoption, while income diversification had a negative effect. The propensity score matching approach showed that adopters of climate-smart strategies are on-average more food-secure. These users showed a more diverse pattern of food consumption, greater protein intake and better economic access to food. Changing crop portfolios can help households to cope with climate-related shocks such as droughts and thus appears to be the best performing strategy, especially in terms of more stable food provisioning throughout the year.}, ISSN = {1876-4525}, DOI = {10.1007/s12571-017-0694-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0694-y}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1463, author = {Bryceson, Deborah Fahy}, title = {Gender and generational patterns of African deagrarianization: Evolving labour and land allocation in smallholder peasant household farming, 1980–2015}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {113}, pages = {60-72}, ISSN = {0305750X}, DOI = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.08.021}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1464, author = {Buchwald, A. G. and Hayden, M. H. and Dadzie, S. K. and Paull, S. H. and Carlton, E. J.}, title = {Aedes-borne disease outbreaks in West Africa: A call for enhanced surveillance}, journal = {Acta Trop}, volume = {209}, pages = {105468}, keywords = {Aedes aegypti Aedes albopictus Arboviruses Climate change Urbanization West Africa declare.}, ISSN = {0001-706x}, DOI = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105468}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001706X19317851?via%3Dihub}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1465, author = {Buhaug, Halvard and von Uexkull, Nina}, title = {Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change}, journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources}, volume = {46}, number = {1}, abstract = {Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: (a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, (b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and (c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate?conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts.}, ISSN = {1543-5938}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708}, url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1466, author = {Bulow, Jeremy and Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth and Trebesch, Christoph}, title = {The Debt Pandemic}, journal = {Finance & Development}, volume = {0057}, number = {003}, pages = {A004}, ISSN = {9781513544595 0015-1947}, DOI = {10.5089/9781513544595.022.A004}, url = {https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/022/0057/003/article-A004-en.xml}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1467, author = {Buma, Willibroad G. and Lee, Sang-Il and Seo, Jae Y.}, title = {Recent Surface Water Extent of Lake Chad from Multispectral Sensors and GRACE}, journal = {Sensors}, volume = {18}, number = {7}, abstract = {Consistent observations of lakes and reservoirs that comprise the majority of surface freshwater globally are limited, especially in Africa where water bodies are exposed to unfavorable climatic conditions and human interactions. Publicly available satellite imagery has increased the ability to monitor water bodies of various sizes without much financial hassle. Landsat 7 and 8 images were used in this study to estimate area changes around Lake Chad. The Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were compared for the remote sensing retrieval process of surface water. Otsu threshold method was used to separate water from non-water features. With an overall accuracy of ~96% and an inter-rater agreement (kappa coefficient) of 0.91, the MNDWI was a better indicator for mapping recent area changes in Lake Chad and was used to estimate the lake’s area changes from 2003–2016. Extracted monthly areas showed an increasing trend and ranged between ~1242 km2 and 2231 km2 indicating high variability within the 13-year period, 2003–2016. In addition, we combined Landsat measurements with Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. This combination is well matched with our estimated surface area trends. This work not only demonstrates the importance of remote sensing in sparsely gauged developing countries, it also suggests the use of freely available high-quality imagery data to address existing lake crisis.}, keywords = {sensors spatial analysis remote sensing Lake Chad Landsat surface water mapping}, ISSN = {1424-8220}, DOI = {10.3390/s18072082}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1468, author = {Bunce, A. and Ford, J.}, title = {How is adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability research engaging with gender?}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/123003}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1469, author = {Bunker, A. and Sewe, M. O. and Sie, A. and Rocklov, J. and Sauerborn, R.}, title = {Excess burden of non-communicable disease years of life lost from heat in rural Burkina Faso: a time series analysis of the years 2000-2010}, journal = {BMJ Open}, volume = {7}, number = {11}, pages = {e018068}, keywords = {Sub-Saharan africa heat non-communicable disease time series years of life lost}, ISSN = {2044-6055}, DOI = {10.1136/bmjopen-2017-018068}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5695355/pdf/bmjopen-2017-018068.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1470, author = {Bunn, Christian and Läderach, Peter and Ovalle Rivera, Oriana and Kirschke, Dieter}, title = {A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {129}, number = {1}, pages = {89-101}, abstract = {Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts.}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1471, author = {Burke, M. and Davis, W. M. and Diffenbaugh, N. S.}, title = {Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {557}, number = {7706}, pages = {549-553}, keywords = {Climate Climate change change impacts}, ISSN = {1476-4687 (Electronic) 0028-0836 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/s41586-018-0071-9}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29795251}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1472, author = {Burke, Marshall and Gong, Erick and Jones, Kelly}, title = {Income Shocks and HIV in Africa}, journal = {The Economic Journal}, volume = {125}, number = {585}, pages = {1157-1189}, ISSN = {0013-0133}, DOI = {10.1111/ecoj.12149}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12149}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1473, author = {Burke, Marshall and González, Felipe and Baylis, Patrick and Heft-Neal, Sam and Baysan, Ceren and Basu, Sanjay and Hsiang, Solomon}, title = {Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {8}, number = {8}, pages = {723-729}, abstract = {Linkages between climate and mental health are often theorized but remain poorly quantified. In particular, it is unknown whether the rate of suicide, a leading cause of death globally, is systematically affected by climatic conditions. Using comprehensive data from multiple decades for both the United States and Mexico, we find that suicide rates rise 0.7% in US counties and 2.1% in Mexican municipalities for a 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature. This effect is similar in hotter versus cooler regions and has not diminished over time, indicating limited historical adaptation. Analysis of depressive language in >600 million social media updates further suggests that mental well-being deteriorates during warmer periods. We project that unmitigated climate change (RCP8.5) could result in a combined 9–40 thousand additional suicides (95% confidence interval) across the United States and Mexico by 2050, representing a change in suicide rates comparable to the estimated impact of economic recessions, suicide prevention programmes or gun restriction laws.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1474, author = {Burke, Marshall and Hsiang, Solomon and Miguel, Edward}, title = {Climate and Conflict}, journal = {Annual Review of Economics}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {577-617}, DOI = {10.3386/w20598}, url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w20598}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1475, author = {Burke, M. and Hsiang, S. M. and Miguel, E.}, title = {Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {527}, number = {7577}, pages = {235-9}, keywords = {Agriculture/economics/statistics & numerical data *Climate Developed Countries/economics Developing Countries/economics Efficiency Global Warming/*economics Income/statistics & numerical data/trends *Internationality *Models, Economic *Nonlinear Dynamics *Temperature Time Factors}, ISSN = {1476-4687 (Electronic) 0028-0836 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/nature15725}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26503051}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1476, author = {Burke, Marshall B. and Miguel, Edward and Satyanath, Shanker and Dykema, John A. and Lobell, David B.}, title = {Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {106}, number = {49}, pages = {20670}, abstract = {Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.0907998106}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20670.abstract}, year = {2009}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1477, author = {Burls, Natalie J. and Blamey, Ross C. and Cash, Benjamin A. and Swenson, Erik T. and Fahad, Abdullah al and Bopape, Mary-Jane M. and Straus, David M. and Reason, Chris J. C.}, title = {The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion}, journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {27}, abstract = {In early 2018, Cape Town (population ~3.7 million) was at risk of being one of the first major metropolitan areas in the world to run out of water. This was due to a severe multi-year drought that led to the levels of supply dams falling to an unprecedented low. Here we analyze rainfall data from the city catchment areas, including rare centennial records from the surrounding region, to assess the severity of the 2015–2017 drought. We find that there has been a long-term decline in the number of winter rainfall days, but this trend has been generally masked by fluctuations in rainfall intensity. The recent drought is unprecedented in the centennial record and represents a combination of the long-term decline in rainfall days and a more recent decline in rainfall intensity. Cold fronts during the winter months are responsible for most of the rainfall reaching Cape Town and our analysis shows no robust regional trend in the number of fronts over the last 40 years. Rather, the observed multidecadal decline in rainfall days, which threatens to increase the occurrence of severe drought, appears to be linked to a decrease in the duration of rainfall events associated with cold fronts. This change in rainfall characteristics associated with fronts appears to be linked to Hadley Cell expansion seen across the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in post-frontal high-pressure conditions that suppress orographically enhanced rainfall.}, ISSN = {2397-3722}, DOI = {10.1038/s41612-019-0084-6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0084-6}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1478, author = {Burrows, Michael T. and Schoeman, David S. and Richardson, Anthony J. and Molinos, Jorge García and Hoffmann, Ary and Buckley, Lauren B. and Moore, Pippa J. and Brown, Christopher J. and Bruno, John F. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Kappel, Carrie V. and Kiessling, Wolfgang and O’Connor, Mary I. and Pandolfi, John M. and Parmesan, Camille and Sydeman, William J. and Ferrier, Simon and Williams, Kristen J. and Poloczanska, Elvira S.}, title = {Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {507}, number = {7493}, pages = {492-495}, abstract = {Global maps constructed using climate-change velocities to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches between 1960 and 2100 show past and future shifts in ecological climate niches; properties of these trajectories are used to infer changes in species distributions, and thus identify areas that will act as climate sources and sinks, and geographical barriers to species migrations.}, ISSN = {1476-4687}, DOI = {10.1038/nature12976}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12976}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1479, author = {Bush, Emma R. and Whytock, Robin C. and Bahaa-el-din, Laila and Bourgeois, Stéphanie and Bunnefeld, Nils and Cardoso, Anabelle W. and Dikangadissi, Jean Thoussaint and Dimbonda, Pacôme and Dimoto, Edmond and Edzang Ndong, Josué and Jeffery, Kathryn J. and Lehmann, David and Makaga, Loïc and Momboua, Brice and Momont, Ludovic R. W. and Tutin, Caroline E. G. and White, Lee J. T. and Whittaker, Alden and Abernethy, Katharine}, title = {Long-term collapse in fruit availability threatens Central African forest megafauna}, journal = {Science}, volume = {370}, number = {6521}, pages = {1219}, abstract = {Large mammal herbivores in African tropical forests are major consumers of fruit, and many tree species rely on these consumers for dispersal of their seeds. Bush et al. monitored fruit production over three decades in a protected national park in Gabon, showing an 80% decline across the 73 plant species monitored. At the same time, photographic records of forest elephants over the past decade indicate a substantial decline in body condition in these major herbivores. These results suggest that the capacity of the ecosystem to support the elephant population is decreasing, a worrying prospect in an environment that is still protected from other threats such as hunting and deforestation.Science, this issue p. 1219Afrotropical forests host much of the world’s remaining megafauna, although these animals are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We used a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. Our analysis reveals an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986–2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008 to 2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern about the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long term, with potential consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.}, DOI = {10.1126/science.abc7791}, url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6521/1219.abstract}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1480, author = {Bwambale, B. and Muhumuza, M. and Nyeko, M.}, title = {Traditional ecological knowledge and flood risk management: A preliminary case study of the Rwenzori}, journal = {Jamba}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {536}, note = {Bwambale, Bosco Muhumuza, Moses Nyeko, Martine eng South Africa Jamba. 2018 May 31;10(1):536. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v10i1.536. eCollection 2018.}, abstract = {The shift from flood protection to flood risk management, together with recent arguments on incorporating culture in managing risk, underscores the application of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in managing disasters from flood hazards. Yet, documentation and incorporation of TEK into practice remains a challenge. This article contributes to addressing this challenge by exploring the existence of TEK to flooding in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda. Using semi-structured interviews, data were collected from residents of the Nyamwamba watershed where intense flash floods caused deadly impacts in May 2013. Collected data were analysed using content, thematic and interpretive analysis techniques. Results indicate that TEK is exhibited through various traditional ecological approaches (TEAs). Although endangered, TEAs (conducted through collective action for a communally accepted end) are framed in three main activities: (1) assessment and prediction of rainfall and flood by the traditional hydro-meteorologist (diviner) and the traditional rain forecaster (rainmaker); (2) the mountain cleansing ritual (which act as flood risk awareness platform); and (3) immunising riverine communities through planting certain indigenous plants, which improve hydrological systems through their high conservation value for native ecological diversity. As most TEAs are conducted through collective action, they represent a platform to understand local capacities and enhance adoption of measures, and/or a source of knowledge for new measures to address flood risk. Therefore, full-scale investigations of these TEAs, determining how relevant TEAs are fine-tuned, and (scientific) measures enculturated based on fine-tuned TEAs could result in effective flood risk management in various flood hotspots where TEAs influence action.}, ISSN = {1996-1421 (Electronic) 1996-1421 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.536}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29955272}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1481, author = {Bwasiri, Emmanuel J.}, title = {The challenge of managing intangible heritage: Problems in Tanzanian legislation and administration}, publisher = {South African Archaeological Society}, volume = {66}, abstract = {The subject of this paper is the management of intangible heritage in Tanzania. It investigates the history of the management of intangible heritage inTanzania during the pre- and post-independence periods. It considers the challenges facing the enforcement of cultural heritage legislation in Tanzania and provides recommendations as to how these may be best addressed. These recommendations are derived from experiences of the application of cultural legislation in Tanzania and other countries, but are aimed at dealing with popular concerns that are specific to intangible heritage in Tanzania.}, pages = {129–135}, ISBN = {0038-1969}, DOI = {10.3316/informit.617059292792417}, url = {https://search.informit.org/doi/10.3316/informit.617059292792417}, year = {2011}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1482, author = {Byass, P. and Collinson, M. A. and Kabudula, C. and Gómez-Olivé, F. X. and Wagner, R. G. and Ngobeni, S. and Silaule, B. and Mee, P. and Coetzee, M. and Twine, W. and Tollman, S. M. and Kahn, K.}, title = {The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years}, journal = {Global Health, Epidemiology and Genomics}, volume = {2}, pages = {e11-e11}, keywords = {Climate South Africa disease control malaria elimination migration}, DOI = {10.1017/gheg.2017.7}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2054420017000070/type/journal_article}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1483, author = {Caetano, Tara and Winker, Harald and Depledge, Joanna}, title = {Towards zero carbon and zero poverty: integrating national climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals}, journal = {Climate Policy}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {773-778}, ISSN = {1469-3062}, DOI = {10.1080/14693062.2020.1791404}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1791404}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1484, author = {Cai, Ruohong and Feng, Shuaizhang and Oppenheimer, Michael and Pytlikova, Mariola}, title = {Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, volume = {79}, pages = {135-151}, abstract = {While there is considerable interest in understanding the climate–migration relationship, particularly in the context of concerns about global climatic change, little is known about its underlying mechanisms. In the paper, we combine a rich panel data on annual bilateral international migration flows with an extensive data on climate variability across the countries to investigate in-depth the climate–migration link. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between temperature and international outmigration only in the most agriculture-dependent countries, consistent with the widely documented adverse impact of temperature on agricultural productivity. Further, the temperature–migration relationship is nonlinear and resembles the nonlinear temperature–yield relationship. In addition, migration flows to current major destinations are especially temperature-sensitive. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced international migration would be more efficient if focused on the agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.}, keywords = {International migration Temperature Agricultural productivity Nonlinear effect}, ISSN = {0095-0696}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.06.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069616300882}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1485, author = {Cai, Wenju and Yang, Kai and Wu, Lixin and Huang, Gang and Santoso, Agus and Ng, Benjamin and Wang, Guojian and Yamagata, Toshio}, title = {Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {27-32}, abstract = {A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces weather extremes such as the 2019 Australian bushfires and African floods. The impact is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), yet models disagree on how pIOD SST may respond to greenhouse warming. Here we find increased SST variability of strong pIOD events, with strong equatorial eastern Indian Ocean cool anomalies, but decreased variability of moderate pIOD events, dominated by western warm anomalies. This opposite response is detected in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) climate models that simulate the two pIOD regimes. Under greenhouse warming, the lower troposphere warms faster than the surface, limiting Ekman pumping that drives the moderate pIOD warm anomalies; however, faster surface warming in the equatorial western region favours atmospheric convection in the west, strengthening equatorial nonlinear advection that forces the strong pIOD cool anomalies. Climate extremes seen in 2019 are therefore likely to occur more frequently under greenhouse warming.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1486, author = {Cairncross, Eugene and Dalvie, Aqiel and Euripidou, Rico and Irlam, James and Naidoo, Rajen Nithiseelan}, title = {Climate Change, Air Pollution and Health in South Africa}, booktitle = {Climate Change and Air Pollution}, editor = {Akhtar R. and Palagiano, C.}, publisher = {Springer Climate}, pages = {327-347}, ISBN = {978-3-319-61345-1}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61346-8_20}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @techreport{RN1487, author = {Calderon, Cesar and Cantu, Catalina and Chuhan-Pole, Punam}, title = {Infrastructure Development in Sub-Saharan Africa : A Scorecard}, DOI = {10.1596/1813-9450-8425}, url = {https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29770}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1488, author = {Call, Maia and Gray, Clark}, title = {Climate anomalies, land degradation, and rural out-migration in Uganda}, journal = {Population and Environment}, volume = {41}, number = {4}, pages = {507-528}, ISSN = {1573-7810}, DOI = {10.1007/s11111-020-00349-3}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-020-00349-3}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1489, author = {Callaghan, Max and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Nath, Shruti and Lejeune, Quentin and Hansen, Gerrit and Theokritoff, Emily and Andreijevic, Marina and Brecha, Robert and Hegarty, Michael and Jones, Chelsea and Lee, Kaylin and Lucas, Agathe and van Maanen, Nicole and Menke, Inga and Pfleiderer, Peter and Yesil, Burcu and Minx, Jan C.}, title = {AI based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1490, author = {Callo-Concha, Daniel}, title = {Farmer Perceptions and Climate Change Adaptation in the West Africa Sudan Savannah: Reality Check in Dassari, Benin, and Dano, Burkina Faso}, journal = {Climate}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, abstract = {Climate change is a great threat to the already climate-unstable West Africa. Current and potential impacts are especially hard on farming in the Sudan savannah, thus adaptation is widely advised and encouraged, and already occurring. In the study sites Dassari, Benin, and Dano, Burkina Faso, farmers’ climate change perceptions and practiced coping measures were qualitatively and quantitatively recorded. Analyses included statistical testing to detach anecdotal responses from factual decisions. Results reveal that responses regarding climate change perception and adaptation are frequently subjective, conjectural and inconsistent. Farmers’ acknowledge that adaptations to climate change impacts are diverse, but site specific. Measures do not causally respond to the type of hazard, nor to its impacts, but instead tend to address wide-ranging demands, such as household food security, income generation and capitalization. Hence, causally linking hazards, impacts and responses can be misleading, and measures can thus be ineffective. After our findings, key qualities of effective coping measures are short-term economic returns, compatibility with local ecological, social and institutional settings and agreeing with the customary farming traditions. With respect to operability, the national agricultural extension services are still the most relevant instances. Considering these aspects can support local farming adaptation and also increase the general resilience of the households.}, keywords = {West Africa Sudan savannah farming coping measures subjective valuation climate variability}, ISSN = {2225-1154}, DOI = {10.3390/cli6020044}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1491, author = {Cambaza, Edgar and Mongo, Edson and Anapakala, Elda and Nhambire, Robina and Singo, Jacinto and Machava, Edsone}, title = {Outbreak of Cholera Due to Cyclone Kenneth in Northern Mozambique, 2019}, journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health}, volume = {16}, number = {16}, abstract = {Cyclone Kenneth was the strongest in the recorded history of the African continent. It landed in the Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique on 25 April 2019, causing 45 deaths, destroying approximately 40,000 houses, and leaving 374,000 people in need for assistance, most at risk of acquiring waterborne diseases such as cholera. This short article aims to explain how the resulting cholera outbreak occurred and the response by the government and partner organizations. The outbreak was declared on 2 May 2019, after 14 cases were recorded in Pemba city (11 cases) and the Mecúfi district (3 cases). The disease spread to Metuge, and by the 12th of May 2019, there were 149 cases. Aware of the risk of an outbreak of cholera, the government and partners took immediate action as the cyclone ended, adapting the Cholera Response Plan for Beira, revised after the experience with cyclone Idai (4–21 March 2019). The response relevant to cholera epidemics consisted of social mobilization campaigns for prevention, establishment of treatment centers and units, coordination to improve of water, sanitation and hygiene, and surveillance. By 26 May 2019, 252,448 people were immunized in the area affected by cyclone Kenneth. The recovery process is ongoing but the number of new cases has been reducing, seemingly due to an efficient response, support of several organizations and collaboration of the civil society. Future interventions shall follow the same model of response but the government of Mozambique shall keep a contingency fund to manage disasters such as cyclone Idai and Kenneth. The unlikeliness of two cyclones (Idai and Kenneth) within two months after decades without such kind of phenomena points towards the problem of climate change, and Mozambique needs to prepare effective, proven response plans to combat outbreaks of waterborne diseases due to cyclones.}, keywords = {cyclone Kenneth Mozambique outbreak cholera}, ISSN = {1660-4601}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph16162925}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1492, author = {Camberlin, Pierre}, title = {Climate of Eastern Africa}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, month = {2018-01-24}, abstract = {Eastern Africa, classically presented as a major dry climate anomaly region in the otherwise wet equatorial belt, is a transition zone between the monsoon domains of West Africa and the Indian Ocean. Its complex terrain, unequaled in the rest of Africa, results in a huge diversity of climatic conditions that steer a wide range of vegetation landscapes, biodiversity and human occupations. Meridional rainfall gradients dominate in the west along the Nile valley and its surroundings, where a single boreal summer peak is mostly observed. Bimodal regimes (generally peaking in April and November) prevail in the east, gradually shifting to a single austral summer peak to the south. The swift seasonal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its replacement in January–February and June–September by strong meridional, generally diverging low-level winds (e.g., the Somali Jet), account for the low rainfall. These large-scale flows interact with topography and lakes, which have their own local circulation in the form of mountain and lake breezes. This results in complex rainfall patterns, with a strong diurnal component, and a frequent asymmetry in the rainfall distribution with respect to the major relief features. Whereas highly organized rain-producing systems are uncommon, convection is partly modulated at intra-seasonal (about 30–60-day) timescales. Interannual variability shows a fair level of spatial coherence in the region, at least in July–September in the west (Ethiopia and Nile Valley) and October–December in the east along the Indian Ocean. This is associated with a strong forcing from sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and to a lesser extent the Atlantic Ocean. As a result, Eastern Africa shows some of the largest interannual rainfall variations in the world. Some decadal-scale variations are also found, including a drying trend of the March–May rainy season since the 1980s in the eastern part of the region. Eastern Africa overall mean temperature increased by 0.7 to 1 °C from 1973 to 2013, depending on the season. The strong, sometimes non-linear altitudinal gradients of temperature and moisture regimes, also contribute to the climate diversity of Eastern Africa.}, DOI = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.512}, url = {https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-512}, year = {2018}, type = {Generic} } @article{RN1493, author = {Caminade, Cyril and McIntyre, K. Marie and Jones, Anne E.}, title = {Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases}, journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences}, volume = {1436}, number = {1}, pages = {157-173}, ISSN = {0077-8923}, DOI = {10.1111/nyas.13950}, url = {https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nyas.13950}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1494, author = {Cantin, N. E. and Cohen, A. L. and Karnauskas, K. B. and Tarrant, A. M. and McCorkle, D. C.}, title = {Ocean warming slows coral growth in the central Red Sea}, journal = {Science}, volume = {329}, number = {5989}, pages = {322-5}, keywords = {Animals Anthozoa/*growth & development *Climate Change *Ecosystem Eukaryota/growth & development Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Indian Ocean Seasons *Seawater Stress, Physiological Symbiosis *Temperature}, ISSN = {1095-9203 (Electronic) 0036-8075 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1126/science.1190182}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20647466}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1495, author = {Cao, Shixiong and Zhang, Junze and Chen, Li and Zhao, Tingyang}, title = {Ecosystem water imbalances created during ecological restoration by afforestation in China, and lessons for other developing countries}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {183}, pages = {843-849}, abstract = {Land degradation is a global environmental problem that jeopardizes human safety and socioeconomic development. To alleviate severe soil erosion and desertification due to deforestation and overgrazing, China has implemented historically unprecedented large-scale afforestation. However, few studies have accounted for the resulting imbalance between water supply (primarily precipitation) and water consumption (evapotranspiration), which will affect ecosystem health and socioeconomic development. We compared the water balance results between restoration by means of afforestation and restoration using the potential natural vegetation to guide future ecological restoration planning and environmental policy development. Based on estimates of water consumption from seven evapotranspiration models, we discuss the consequences for water security using data obtained since 1952 under China's large-scale afforestation program. The models estimated that afforestation will increase water consumption by 559–2354 m3/ha annually compared with natural vegetation. Although afforestation is a potentially important approach for environmental restoration, China's current policy has not been tailored to local precipitation conditions, and will have therefore exacerbated water shortages and decrease the ability to achieve environmental policy goals. Our analysis shows how, both in China and around the world, future ecological restoration planning must account for the water balance to ensure effective and sustainable environmental restoration policy.}, keywords = {Afforestation Climate change Ecological restoration Environmental policy Water consumption Water balance}, ISSN = {0301-4797}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.07.096}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479716305333}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1496, author = {Caparoci Nogueira, Sulimar M. and Moreira, Maurício A. and Lordelo Volpato, Margarete M.}, title = {Evaluating Precipitation Estimates from Eta, TRMM and CHRIPS Data in the South-Southeast Region of Minas Gerais State—Brazil}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {10}, number = {2}, abstract = {Precipitation estimates derived from the Eta model and from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) remotely sensed data were compared to the precipitation data of the INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) meteorological stations in the south-southeast region of Minas Gerais state, Brazil, in the period between July 2009 and June 2015. Then, information about evapotranspiration (ETR), water deficit (DEF), and water surplus (EXC) was obtained from the precipitation data, using the sequential water balance (SWB) separately for each type of precipitation data (INMET, TRMM, Eta, and CHIRPS). Subsequently, the components of the SWB were comparatively analyzed. The results indicate that all three products overestimate rainfall. The strongest relationships between the INMET data and the estimated data were observed for the TRMM, in terms of precipitation estimates, as well as DEF, EXC, and ETR components. The Eta precipitation estimates are overestimated relative to those from INMET, resulting in underestimation of the water deficit (DEFETA) and overestimation of evapotranspiration (ETRETA). In general, the CHIRPS data presented a pattern similar to the station data, though statistical analyses were lower than those of the TRMM data.}, keywords = {water deficit 3B42 Evapotranspiration}, ISSN = {2072-4292}, DOI = {10.3390/rs10020313}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1497, author = {Carleton, Tamma and Delgado, M. and Greenstone, M. and Houser, T. and Hsiang, S. and Hultgren, A. and Hultgren, Andrew and Jina, Amir and Kopp, Robert E. and McCusker, Kelly and Nath, Ishan and Rising, James and Rode, Ashwin and Seo, Hee Kwon and Simcock, Justin and Viaene, Arvid and Yuan, Jiacan and Zhang, Alice Tianbo}, title = {Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits}, journal = {University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2018-51.}, DOI = {10.2139/ssrn.3224365}, url = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=3224365}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1498, author = {Carleton, T. and Hsiang, S. M. and Burke, M.}, title = {Conflict in a changing climate}, journal = {The European Physical Journal Special Topics}, volume = {225}, number = {3}, pages = {489-511}, ISSN = {1951-6355 1951-6401}, DOI = {10.1140/epjst/e2015-50100-5}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1499, author = {Carleton, T. A. and Hsiang, S. M.}, title = {Social and economic impacts of climate}, journal = {Science}, volume = {353}, number = {6304}, keywords = {Adaptation, Physiological Climate Change/*economics Health Impact Assessment Humans Morbidity Mortality Population Dynamics *Social Conditions}, ISSN = {1095-9203 (Electronic) 0036-8075 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aad9837}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27609899}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1500, author = {Carlson, Colin J. and Albery, Gregory F. and Merow, Cory and Trisos, Christopher H. and Zipfel, Casey M. and Eskew, Evan A. and Olival, Kevin J. and Ross, Noam and Bansal, Shweta}, title = {Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission}, journal = {bioRxiv}, pages = {2020.01.24.918755}, DOI = {10.1101/2020.01.24.918755}, url = {http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/07/14/2020.01.24.918755.abstract}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1501, author = {Carlson, Colin J and Albery, Gregory F and Phelan, Alexandra}, title = {Preparing international cooperation on pandemic prevention for the Anthropocene}, journal = {BMJ Global Health}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, pages = {e004254}, DOI = {10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004254}, url = {https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/6/3/e004254.full.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1502, author = {Carlson, Colin J. and Bannon, Ellen and Mendenhall, Emily and Newfield, Timothy and Bansal, Shweta}, title = {Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century}, DOI = {10.1101/673913}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1503, author = {Carlson, Colin J. and Gomez, Ana C. R. and Bansal, Shweta and Ryan, Sadie J.}, title = {Misconceptions about weather and seasonality must not misguide COVID-19 response}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {4312}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-020-18150-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18150-z}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1504, author = {Carr, Edward R and Fleming, Grant and Kalala, Tshibangu}, title = {Understanding women’s needs for weather and climate information in agrarian settings: The case of Ngetou Maleck, Senegal}, journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society}, volume = {8}, number = {3}, pages = {247-264}, abstract = {While climate services have the potential to reduce precipitation- and temperature-related risks to agrarian livelihoods, such outcomes are possible only when they deliver information that is salient, legitimate, and credible to end users. This is particularly true of climate services intended to address the needs of women in agrarian contexts. The design of such gender-sensitive services is hampered by oversimplified framings of women as a group in both the adaptation and climate services literatures. This paper demonstrates that even at the village level, women have different climate and weather information needs, and differing abilities to act on that information. Therefore, starting with preconceived connections between identities and vulnerability is likely to result in overgeneralizations that hinder the ability to address the climate-related development and adaptation needs of the most vulnerable. Instead, as is demonstrated in this paper, the design and implementation of effective gender-sensitive climate services must start with the relevant social differences that shape people’s livelihoods decisions and outcomes, including but not limited to gender.}, ISSN = {1948-8327}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0075.1}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1505, author = {Carr, Edward R. and Goble, Rob and Rosko, Helen M. and Vaughan, Catherine and Hansen, James}, title = {Identifying climate information services users and their needs in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review and learning agenda}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {23-41}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2019.1596061}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1506, author = {Carter, Jeremy G. and Cavan, Gina and Connelly, Angela and Guy, Simon and Handley, John and Kazmierczak, Aleksandra}, title = {Climate change and the city: Building capacity for urban adaptation}, journal = {Progress in Planning}, volume = {95}, pages = {1-66}, abstract = {The significant shifts in climate variables projected for the 21st century, coupled with the observed impacts of ongoing extreme weather and climate events, ensures that adaptation to climate change is set to remain a pressing issue for urban areas over the coming decades. This volume of Progress in Planning seeks to contribute to the widening debate about how the transformation of cities to respond to the changing climate is being understood, managed and achieved. We focus particularly on spatial planning, and building the capacity of this key mechanism for responding to the adaptation imperative in urban areas. The core focus is the outcomes of a collaborative research project, EcoCities, undertaken at the University of Manchester's School of Environment and Development. EcoCities drew upon inter-disciplinary research on climate science, environmental planning and urban design working within a socio-technical framework to investigate climate change hazards, vulnerabilities and adaptation responses in the conurbation of Greater Manchester, UK. Emerging transferable learning with potential relevance for adaptation planning in other cities and urban areas is drawn out to inform this rapidly emerging international agenda. Approaches to build adaptive capacity challenge traditional approaches to environmental and spatial planning, and the role of researchers in this process, raising questions over whether appropriate governance structures are in place to develop effective responses. The cross-cutting nature of the adaptation agenda exposes the silo based approaches that drive many organisations. The development of a collaborative, sociotechnical agenda is vital if we are to meet the climate change adaptation challenge in cities.}, keywords = {Climate change Adaptation Cities Urban Spatial planning}, ISSN = {0305-9006}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2013.08.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305900614000397}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1507, author = {Carter, S. and Steynor, A. and Vincent, K. and Visman, E. and Waagsaether, K.}, title = {Co-production of African weather and climate services}, institution = {Future Climate for Africa and Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa }, url = {https://futureclimateafrica.org/coproduction-manual/downloads/WISER-FCFA-coproduction-manual.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1508, author = {Carter, Timothy R. and Benzie, Magnus and Campiglio, Emanuele and Carlsen, Henrik and Fronzek, Stefan and Hildén, Mikael and Reyer, Christopher P. O. and West, Chris}, title = {A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {69}, pages = {102307}, keywords = {Risk propagation Adaptation Response Climate trigger Cascading impacts Complex system}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102307}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000868}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1509, author = {Carty, T. and Kowalzig, J. and Zagema, B.}, title = {Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020: Assessing progress towards the $100 billion commitment}, institution = {Oxfam International}, url = {https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/621066/bp-climate-finance-shadow-report-2020-201020-en.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1510, author = {Castells-Quintana, David and Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar and McDermott, Thomas K. J.}, title = {Adaptation to climate change: A review through a development economics lens}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {104}, pages = {183-196}, abstract = {This paper looks at adaptation to climate change from the point of view of (poor) households. Since the development literature has firmly established the role of weather risk as a source of income volatility for the poor, and climate change is expected to increase this risk, we review the range of risk-coping mechanisms available to poorer households, with a focus on possible barriers to adaptation. We ask both how government interventions affect the set of options available for adaptation and risk coping, and also what these adaptive responses imply for the prospects of sustainable development. Support for adaptation can involve efforts to make existing locations, livelihoods and forms of production more resilient to climate risk (in-situ adaptation), or reductions in vulnerability through the geographical and sectoral mobility of the poor (transformational adaptation). Our review shows how successful adaptation will need to strike a balance between the two forms of adaptation, avoiding locking-in unsustainable practices in locations that are already marginal from an economic perspective, and taking account of broader socio-economic trends already taking place in many developing countries (such as population growth and urbanisation). We also highlight important considerations for policy-makers, which to date have been relatively neglected in the literature, in particular related to the dynamic interaction between adaptation and sustainable development.}, keywords = {Sustainable development Climate change Risk Adaptation}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17303789}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1511, author = {Catley, Andy and Admassu, Berhanu and Bekele, Gezu and Abebe, Dawit}, title = {Livestock mortality in pastoralist herds in Ethiopia and implications for drought response}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {38}, number = {3}, pages = {500-516}, keywords = {drought Ethiopia excess mortality livelihoods-based programming livestock mortality}, ISSN = {1467-7717}, DOI = {10.1111/disa.12060}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/disa.12060 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12060 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/disa.12060}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1512, author = {Cattaneo, Cristina and Beine, Michel and Fröhlich, Christiane J and Kniveton, Dominic and Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada and Mastrorillo, Marina and Millock, Katrin and Piguet, Etienne and Schraven, Benjamin}, title = {Human migration in the era of climate change}, journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {189-206}, ISSN = {1750-6816}, DOI = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez008}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1513, author = {Cattaneo, Cristina and Peri, Giovanni}, title = {The migration response to increasing temperatures}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {122}, pages = {127-146}, abstract = {Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced in recent years by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence the income of rural populations will change, and with it the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 115 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures in middle-income economies increased migration rates to urban areas and to other countries. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities and to other countries, consistently with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies.}, keywords = {Global warming Emigration Rural–urban migration Agricultural productivity}, ISSN = {0304-3878}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.05.004}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387816300372}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1514, author = {CDKN}, title = {Enhancing direct access to the Green Climate Fund}, institution = {Climate and Devleopment Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/CDKN_GCFPolicyBrief_Pr2_21-06-13_WEB.pdf}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1515, author = {Ceccato, P. and Ramirez, B. and Manyangadze, T. and Gwakisa, P. and Thomson, M. C.}, title = {Data and tools to integrate climate and environmental information into public health}, journal = {Infect Dis Poverty}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {126}, keywords = {Animals *Climate Change Communicable Disease Control Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology Disease Vectors Geographic Information Systems Humans *Public Health Remote Sensing Technology World Health Organization Access Climate and environmental information Data Geographical information system Malaria Schistosomiasis Tools Trypanosomiasis Not applicable. COMPETING INTERESTS: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.}, ISSN = {2095-5162 (Print) 2049-9957}, DOI = {10.1186/s40249-018-0501-9}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6292116/pdf/40249_2018_Article_501.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1516, author = {Ceccherini, Guido and Russo, Simone and Ameztoy, Iban and Francesco Marchese, Andrea and Carmona-Moreno, Cesar}, title = {Heat waves in Africa 1981-2015, observations and reanalysis}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {17}, pages = {115-125}, DOI = {10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1517, author = {Cervigni, Raffaello and Liden, Rikard and Neumann, James E. and Strzepek, Kenneth M.}, title = {Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors}, publisher = {The World Bank}, address = {Washington, DC}, series = {Africa Development Forum}, pages = {216}, ISBN = {978-1-4648-0466-3}, DOI = {doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3}, year = {2015}, type = {Book} } @techreport{RN1518, author = {Cervigni, Raffaello and Losos, Andrew and Chinowsky, Paul and Neumann, James E.}, title = {Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure: The Roads and Bridges Sector}, institution = {World Bank Group}, number = {978-1-4648-0466-3 }, DOI = {10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3}, url = {http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/270671478809724744/Enhancing-the-climate-resilience-of-Africa-s-Infrastructure-the-roads-and-bridges-sector}, year = {2017}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1519, author = {CES Consulting Engineers Salzgitter GmbH and Inros Lackner SE}, title = {Upscaling Nature-Based Flood Protection in Mozambique’s Cities}, institution = {World Bank Group,}, number = {TF0A5808}, url = {http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/401611585291379085/Upscaling-Nature-Based-Flood-Protection-in-Mozambique-s-Cities-Knowledge-Note}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1520, author = {Challinor, A. J. and Adger, W. N. and Benton, T. G. and Conway, D. and Joshi, M. and Frame, D.}, title = {Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders}, journal = {Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci}, volume = {376}, number = {2121}, pages = {20170301}, keywords = {*Climate Change *Environmental Policy Models, Theoretical Risk Assessment/*standards climate change food security migration risk assessment water resources}, ISSN = {1471-2962 (Electronic) 1364-503X (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1098/rsta.2017.0301}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712795}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1521, author = {Challinor, A. J. and Koehler, A. K. and Ramirez-Villegas, J. and Whitfield, S. and Das, B.}, title = {Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {954-958}, abstract = {The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3061}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3061}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1522, author = {Chan, Chin Yee and Tran, Nhuong and Pethiyagoda, Shanali and Crissman, Charles C. and Sulser, Timothy B. and Phillips, Michael J.}, title = {Prospects and challenges of fish for food security in Africa}, journal = {Global Food Security}, volume = {20}, number = {May 2018}, pages = {17-25}, keywords = {Africa Aquaculture Fisheries Food security Foresight modeling Policy}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gfs.2018.12.002}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1523, author = {Chanza, Nelson and de Wit, Anton}, title = {Enhancing climate governance through indigenous knowledge: Case in sustainability science}, journal = {South African Journal of Science}, volume = {112}, pages = {1-7}, ISSN = {0038-2353}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2016/20140286}, url = {http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0038-23532016000200010&nrm=iso}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1524, author = {Chapagain, Dipesh and Baarsch, Florent and Schaeffer, Michiel and D'Haen, Sarah}, title = {Climate change adaptation costs in developing countries: insights from existing estimates}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {934-942}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2020.1711698}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1711698}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1525, author = {Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca and Sharp, Richard P. and Weil, Charlotte and Bennett, Elena M. and Pascual, Unai and Arkema, Katie K. and Brauman, Kate A. and Bryant, Benjamin P. and Guerry, Anne D. and Haddad, Nick M. and Hamann, Maike and Hamel, Perrine and Johnson, Justin A. and Mandle, Lisa and Pereira, Henrique M. and Polasky, Stephen and Ruckelshaus, Mary and Shaw, M. Rebecca and Silver, Jessica M. and Vogl, Adrian L. and Daily, Gretchen C.}, title = {Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people}, journal = {Science}, volume = {366}, number = {6462}, pages = {255}, abstract = {A recent Global Assessment by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has emphasized the urgent need to determine where and how nature's contribution matters most to people. Chaplin-Kramer et al. have developed a globalscale modeling of ecosystem services, focusing on water quality regulation, coastal protection, and crop pollination (see the Perspective by Balvanera). By 2050, up to 5 billion people may be at risk from diminishing ecosystem services, particularly in Africa and South Asia.Science, this issue p. 255; see also p. 184The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people’s needs for nature are now greatest, nature’s ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aaw3372}, url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6462/255.abstract}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1526, author = {Chapman, Daniel and Purse, Bethan V and Roy, Helen E and Bullock, James M}, title = {Global trade networks determine the distribution of invasive non-native species}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, volume = {26}, pages = {907-917}, keywords = {climate matching crop pests dispersal introduction invasive alien species pest outbreaks plant disease plant health transport}, DOI = {10.1111/geb.12599}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1527, author = {Charis, Gratitude and Danha, Gwiranai and Muzenda, Edison}, title = {Waste valorisation opportunities for bush encroacher biomass in savannah ecosystems: A comparative case analysis of Botswana and Namibia}, journal = {Procedia Manufacturing}, volume = {35}, pages = {974-979}, abstract = {Bush encroachment of savannah ecosystems in countries like Botswana and Namibia has been identified as a major problem threatening biodiversity, grazing land productivity and the generation of groundwater. Incidentally, the same problem presents a huge biomass energy resource opportunity which can be exploited through various technologies. This paper defines the scope of the problem in Botswana, comparing with the well documented and partly proven case of encroacher bush waste valorisation in Namibia. This biomass is therefore a large homogeneous sustainable waste resource base that is perennially available, due to the drought-hardiness of the encroachers. It is however, necessary to conduct preliminary studies to explore prospects and possibilities, benchmarking with globally renowned biomass experts like Germany and the United Kingdom. The study shows that the issue of bush encroachment in Botswana has been documented from as far back as 1971, though earlier studies were mostly evaluations from a natural resources perspective which did not proffer solutions. Besides a project by United Nations Development Programme to try and benchmark from Namibia’s biomass to charcoal initiatives from their encroacher bushes, there is no documented effort by Botswana to derive value out of the vast resource which has invaded thousands of hectares of rangelands. Meanwhile, Namibia has recorded significant success in converting the encroacher bushes into wood chips for use in boilers (heat production) for a cement plant, charcoal for domestic and commercial heating/cooking and briquettes for power generation. Feasibility studies have been made for the possibility of scaling up these projects, while exploring other existing and emerging sustainable technologies like pelletizing, gasification, pyrolysis and engineered wood products. Essentially, a review of the existing problem in Botswana, experiences for various cases and recommendations by experts make this compilation valuable for the nation and other regions experiencing the same problem.}, keywords = {waste encroacher bush valorisation energy}, ISSN = {2351-9789}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2019.06.044}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351978919307693}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1528, author = {Charles-Dominique, Tristan and Davies, T. Jonathan and Hempson, Gareth P. and Bezeng, Bezeng S. and Daru, Barnabas H. and Kabongo, Ronny M. and Maurin, Olivier and Muasya, A. Muthama and van der Bank, Michelle and Bond, William J.}, title = {Spiny plants, mammal browsers, and the origin of African savannas}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {113}, number = {38}, pages = {E5572}, abstract = {Africa hosts contrasting communities of mammal browsers and is, thus, the ideal background for testing their effect on plant communities and evolution. In this study at the continental scale, we reveal which mammal browsers are most closely associated with spiny communities of trees. We then show a remarkable convergence between the evolutionary histories of these browsers (the bovids) and spiny plants. Over the last 16 My, plants from unrelated lineages developed spines 55 times. These convergent patterns of evolution suggest that the arrival and diversification of bovids in Africa changed the rules for persisting in woody communities. Contrary to our current understanding, our data suggest that browsers predate fire by millions of years as agents driving the origin of savannas.Savannas first began to spread across Africa during the Miocene. A major hypothesis for explaining this vegetation change is the increase in C4 grasses, promoting fire. We investigated whether mammals could also have contributed to savanna expansion by using spinescence as a marker of mammal herbivory. Looking at the present distribution of 1,852 tree species, we established that spinescence is mainly associated with two functional types of mammals: large browsers and medium-sized mixed feeders. Using a dated phylogeny for the same tree species, we found that spinescence evolved at least 55 times. The diversification of spiny plants occurred long after the evolution of Afrotherian proboscideans and hyracoids. However, it is remarkably congruent with diversification of bovids, the lineage including the antelope that predominantly browse these plants today. Our findings suggest that herbivore-adapted savannas evolved several million years before fire-maintained savannas and probably, in different environmental conditions. Spiny savannas with abundant mammal herbivores occur in drier climates and on nutrient-rich soils, whereas fire-maintained savannas occur in wetter climates on nutrient-poor soils.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1607493113}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/113/38/E5572.abstract}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1529, author = {Chatiza, K.}, title = {Cyclone Idai in Zimbabwe: An analysis of policy implications for post-disaster institutional development}, publisher = {Oxfam}, pages = {30}, month = {2019}, ISBN = {978-1-78748-527-3}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2019.5273}, url = {https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/620892/bp-impact-response-cyclone-idai-zimbabwe-071119-en.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Generic} } @article{RN1530, author = {Chausson, Alexandre and Turner, Beth and Seddon, Dan and Chabaneix, Nicole and Girardin, Cécile A. J. and Kapos, Valerie and Key, Isabel and Roe, Dilys and Smith, Alison and Woroniecki, Stephen and Seddon, Nathalie}, title = {Mapping the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {26}, number = {11}, pages = {6134-6155}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15310}, abstract = {Abstract Nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change currently have considerable political traction. However, national intentions to deploy NbS have yet to be fully translated into evidence-based targets and action on the ground. To enable NbS policy and practice to be better informed by science, we produced the first global systematic map of evidence on the effectiveness of nature-based interventions for addressing the impacts of climate change and hydrometeorological hazards on people. Most of the interventions in natural or semi-natural ecosystems were reported to have ameliorated adverse climate impacts. Conversely, interventions involving created ecosystems (e.g., afforestation) were associated with trade-offs; such studies primarily reported reduced soil erosion or increased vegetation cover but lower water availability, although this evidence was geographically restricted. Overall, studies reported more synergies than trade-offs between reduced climate impacts and broader ecological, social, and climate change mitigation outcomes. In addition, nature-based interventions were most often shown to be as effective or more so than alternative interventions for addressing climate impacts. However, there were substantial gaps in the evidence base. Notably, there were few studies of the cost-effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and few integrated assessments considering broader social and ecological outcomes. There was also a bias in evidence toward the Global North, despite communities in the Global South being generally more vulnerable to climate impacts. To build resilience to climate change worldwide, it is imperative that we protect and harness the benefits that nature can provide, which can only be done effectively if informed by a strengthened evidence base.}, keywords = {adaptation biodiversity climate change ecosystem-based adaptation nature-based solutions resilience systematic map}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15310}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15310}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1531, author = {Chemura, A and Kutywayo, D and Mahlatini, P and Nyatondo, U and Rwasoka, D}, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on the suitability of rainfed flu-cured tobacco (Nicotiana tobacum) production in Zimbabwe}, volume = {1}, pages = {1-14}, year = {2013}, type = {Conference Paper} } @techreport{RN1532, author = {Chen, D. and Rojas, M. and Samset, B.H. and Cobb, K. and Diongue Niang, A. and Edwards, P. and Emori, S. and Faria, S.H. and Hawkins, E. and Hope, P. and Huybrechts, P. and Meinshausen, M. and Mustafa, S.K. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tréguier, A.-M. }, title = {Framing, Context, and Methods}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_01.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1533, author = {Chen, Martha}, title = {Informal Employment and Development: Patterns of Inclusion and Exclusion}, journal = {The European Journal of Development Research}, volume = {26}, number = {4}, pages = {397-418}, ISSN = {1743-9728}, DOI = {10.1057/ejdr.2014.31}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2014.31}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1534, author = {Chersich, M. F. and Scorgie, F. and Wright, C. Y. and Mullick, S. and Mathee, A. and Hess, J. and Richter, M. and Rees, H.}, title = {Climate change and adolescents in South Africa: The role of youth activism and the health sector in safeguarding adolescents' health and education}, journal = {S Afr Med J}, volume = {109}, number = {9}, pages = {615-619}, keywords = {Adolescent *Adolescent Health *Climate Change Health Policy Humans *Political Activism South Africa}, ISSN = {2078-5135 (Electronic)}, DOI = {10.7196/SAMJ.2019.v109i9.14327}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31635581}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1535, author = {Chersich, M F and Swift, C P and Edelstein, I and Breetzke, G and Scorgie, F and Schutte, F and Wright, C Y}, title = {Violence in hot weather: Will climate change exacerbate rates of violence in South Africa?}, volume = {109}, series = {2019}, keywords = {South Africa Interpersonal violence Climate change Homicide High temperature Heat}, ISBN = {2078-5135}, url = {http://www.samj.org.za/index.php/samj/article/view/12655}, year = {2019}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1536, author = {Chersich, M. F. and Wright, C. Y.}, title = {Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector}, journal = {Global Health}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {22}, keywords = {*Climate Change *Health Care Sector Humans South Africa *Adaptation *Extreme weather *Health policy *Health systems *Heat *South Africa}, ISSN = {1744-8603 (Electronic) 1744-8603 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1186/s12992-019-0466-x}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30890178}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1537, author = {Chersich, M. F. and Wright, C. Y. and Venter, F. and Rees, H. and Scorgie, F. and Erasmus, B.}, title = {Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa}, journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {14}, keywords = {South Africa climate change HIV eco-migration extreme weather events health potential impacts limpopo province public-health temperature mortality migration vulnerability environment epidemic dynamics Environmental Sciences & Ecology Public, Environmental & Occupational Health}, ISSN = {1660-4601}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph15091884}, url = {://WOS:000445765600093}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1538, author = {Cheung William, W. L. and Reygondeau, Gabriel and Frölicher Thomas, L.}, title = {Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target}, journal = {Science}, volume = {354}, number = {6319}, pages = {1591-1594}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aag2331}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2331}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1539, author = {Cheung, William W. L. and Jones, Miranda C. and Reygondeau, Gabriel and Stock, Charles A. and Lam, Vicky W. Y. and Frölicher, Thomas L.}, title = {Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {325}, pages = {57-66}, keywords = {dynamic bioclimate envelope model}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1540, author = {Chia, Eugene Loh and Tiani, Anne Marie and Sonwa, Denis Jean and Perez-Teran, Alba Saray and Tchatchou, Berenger}, title = {Securing well-being with the advent of climate hazards}, journal = {International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {175-193}, abstract = {Purpose – This paper aims to examine the contribution of forests resource systems to the different aspects of community well-being, the implications of climate variability on the different sources of well-being and further identifies direct and indirect social and policy opportunities relevant for communities to enhance their capabilities in the face of climate variability and change in the Tri-National de la Sangha landscape of Cameroon. Design/methodology/approach – It illustrates on data collected from focus group discussions and from 151 households randomly selected in three villages to operationalize the conceptual links between community well-being and vulnerability. Findings – The study shows that vulnerability to climate change interferes with community strategies to achieve well-being, in addition to non-climatic processes which are both internal and external to communities. The study further indicates that healthy forest ecosystems provide opportunities for the local folks to build assets, improve food security, improve health and reduce risks. However, this requires capacity building and the channeling of resources to the local level, in addition to win–win sectoral policy amendments. Research limitations/implications – Biophysical methods required to complement community perceptions on the suitability of forest resource systems to climate variability. Practical implications – This paper argues that appropriate strategies which aim at improving well-being needs to capture the role of forest ecosystems, climate change risks and uncertainty and macroeconomic and social processes. Originality/value – This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between climate risk and the well-being of forest communities. This is relevant for practitioners and policy makers to reflect on the risk of climate change and the rationale for conserving forest resources for community well-being in the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals conclusions.}, ISSN = {1756-8692}, DOI = {10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2014-0048}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2014-0048}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1541, author = {Chiarelli, Davide Danilo and Davis, Kyle Frankel and Rulli, Maria Cristina and D'Odorico, Paolo}, title = {Climate change and large-scale land acquisitions in Africa: Quantifying the future impact on acquired water resources}, journal = {Advances in Water Resources}, volume = {94}, pages = {231-237}, abstract = {Pressure on agricultural land has markedly increased since the start of the century, driven by demographic growth, changes in diet, increasing biofuel demand, and globalization. To better ensure access to adequate land and water resources, many investors and countries began leasing large areas of agricultural land in the global South, a phenomenon often termed “large-scale land acquisition” (LSLA). To date, this global land rush has resulted in the appropriation of 41million hectares and about 490km3 of freshwater resources, affecting rural livelihoods and local environments. It remains unclear to what extent land and water acquisitions contribute to the emergence of water-stress conditions in acquired areas, and how these demands for water may be impacted by climate change. Here we analyze 18 African countries – 20Mha (or 80%) of LSLA for the continent – and estimate that under present climate 210km3year−1of water would be appropriated if all acquired areas were actively under production. We also find that consumptive use of irrigation water is disproportionately contributed by water-intensive biofuel crops. Using the IPCCA1B scenario, we find only small changes in green (−1.6%) and blue (+2.0%) water demand in targeted areas. With a 3°C temperature increase, crop yields are expected to decrease up to 20% with a consequent increase in the water footprint. When the effect of increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations is accounted for, crop yields increase by as much as 40% with a decrease in water footprint up to 29%. The relative importance of CO2 fertilization and warming will therefore determine water appropriations and changes in water footprint under climate change scenarios.}, keywords = {Crop water requirement Climate change Large-scale land acquisition Blue and green water Water resources Biofuel crops}, ISSN = {0309-1708}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.016}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170816301518}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1542, author = {Chigbu, Uchendu Eugene}, title = {Anatomy of women’s landlessness in the patrilineal customary land tenure systems of sub-Saharan Africa and a policy pathway}, journal = {Land Use Policy}, volume = {86}, pages = {126-135}, abstract = {A typical character of land tenure or property systems in sub-Saharan Africa is that the systems exclude women (implicitly and explicitly). That is why the discourse on women and land tenure remains a burgeoning policy debate in sub-Saharan Africa. This study is relevant for land policy (and land governance) in sub-Saharan Africa because it evokes the minority voices of women in the land and gender discourse in sub-Saharan Africa. The study dissects, anatomically, female landlessness by probing why women still do not enjoy equal land rights today, and what must be done (policy-wise) to unchain women from their state of landlessness. By way of methodology, the study reviews relevant literature on the historical dimension of womenös access to property rights. It is an explorative study based on two e-Focus Group Discussions conducted on two different online platforms to enable the capture of more expert knowledge on the subject of customary land tenure, gender and womenös land rights in (and on) sub-Saharan Africa. The findings exposed three pillars of womenös landlessness in sub-Saharan Africa, including an analysis of the stages of male power that cripple womenös capacity to own or have access to land. The study identified and explained the nature of the contributions of different stages of male powers — including linguistic power, son power, husband power, and father power — to womenös landlessness. It shows how these powers form the elements of male dominance which interact over a life course to cripple womenös physical and psychological strength within their social spaces (which usually results into socio-political and economic disempowerments). As a key output, the study produced a policy pathway to neutralising the pillars of womenös landlessness.}, keywords = {Africa Customary tenure Gender equality Gender equity Landlessness Land governance Land policy Land rights Land tenure Sub-Saharan Africa Women}, ISSN = {0264-8377}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.041}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837718319975}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1543, author = {Chihambakwe, Michelle and Mafongoya, Paramu and Jiri, Obert}, title = {Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture as A Pathway to Food Security: A Review Mapping the Use of Food Sovereignty}, journal = {Challenges}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, ISSN = {2078-1547}, DOI = {10.3390/challe10010006}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1544, author = {Chinowsky, Paul and Schweikert, Amy and Strzepek, Niko and Manahan, Kyle and Strzepek, Kenneth and Schlosser, C. Adam}, title = {Climate change adaptation advantage for African road infrastructure}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {117}, number = {1}, pages = {345-361}, abstract = {The African continent is facing the potential of a $183.6 billion USD liability to repair and maintain roads damaged from temperature and precipitation changes directly related to predicted climate change through 2100. This cost is strictly to retain the current road inventory. This cost does not include costs associated with impacts to critically needed new roads. In many African countries, limited or non-existent funds for adaptation and mitigation are challenging these countries to identify the threats that are posed by climate change, develop adaptation approaches to the predicted changes, incorporate changes into mid-range and long-term development plans, and secure funding for the proposed and necessary adaptations. Existing studies have attempted to quantify the impact of climate change on infrastructure assets that will be affected by climate change in the coming decades. The current study extends these efforts by specifically addressing the effect of climate change on the African road infrastructure. The study identifies both total costs and opportunity costs of repairing and maintaining infrastructure due to increased stressors from climate change. Proactive and reactive costs are examined for six climate scenarios, with costs ranging, respectively, from an average of $22 million USD to $54 million USD annually per country. A regional analysis shows contrast between impacts in five areas of the continent, with impacts ranging from 22 % opportunity cost to 168 %. These costs have the potential to delay critical infrastructure development on the continent and present a challenge to policy makers balancing short-term needs with long-term planning.}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-012-0536-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0536-z}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1545, author = {Chinowsky, Paul S. and Schweikert, Amy E. and Strzepek, Niko L. and Strzepek, Ken}, title = {Infrastructure and climate change: a study of impacts and adaptations in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {49-62}, ISSN = {0165-0009 1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-014-1219-8}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1546, author = {Chinowsky, Paul S. and Schweikert, Amy E. and Strzepek, Niko L. and Strzepek, Ken}, title = {Infrastructure and climate change: a study of impacts and adaptations in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {130}, number = {1}, pages = {49-62}, abstract = {The African Development Bank has called for $40 Billion USD per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, the effect of climate change on the road infrastructure of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. The study incorporates a stressor-response approach to estimate the effects of projected precipitation, temperature, and flooding changes on the paved and unpaved road infrastructure of these countries. The paper highlights the result of running 425 climate scenarios for each road type and policy option from 2010 to 2050. Based on this broad analysis, it is estimated that the three southern African countries are facing a potential $596 million price tag based on median climate scenarios to maintain and repair roads as a result of damages directly related to temperature and precipitation changes from potential climate change through 2050. The challenge for policy makers is to determine the potential risk that a country is facing based on the uncertainties associated with the multiple aspects of climate change modeling.}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-014-1219-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1219-8}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1547, author = {Chiputwa, Brian and Wainaina, Priscilla and Nakelse, Tebila and Makui, Parmutia and Zougmoré, Robert B. and Ndiaye, Ousmane and Minang, Peter A.}, title = {Transforming climate science into usable services: The effectiveness of co-production in promoting uptake of climate information by smallholder farmers in Senegal}, journal = {Climate Services}, volume = {20}, pages = {100203}, keywords = {Weather Climate Information services Co-production Impact evaluation Smallholder agriculture Senegal Africa}, ISSN = {2405-8807}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100203}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300558}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1548, author = {Chirikure, Shadreck and Manyanga, Munyaradzi and Ndoro, Webber and Pwiti, Gilbert}, title = {Unfulfilled promises? Heritage management and community participation at some of Africa's cultural heritage sites}, journal = {International Journal of Heritage Studies}, volume = {16}, number = {1-2}, pages = {30-44}, ISSN = {1352-7258}, DOI = {10.1080/13527250903441739}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13527250903441739}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1549, author = {Choko, Onyinye P. and Schmitt Olabisi, Laura and Onyeneke, Robert U. and Chiemela, Stella N. and Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. and Rivers, Louie}, title = {A Resilience Approach to Community-Scale Climate Adaptation}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, abstract = {Climate risk is expected to impact rural communities in West Africa in multiple ways. However, most current research addresses resilience and climate adaptation at either the national or the household scale; very little is known about community-scale interventions. We interviewed 934 community members in six communities in southeastern Nigeria about sources of climate risk and community-based actions for climate change adaptation. We found these communities contained multiple active and engaged groups that have implemented a wide range of interventions to reduce climate risk, most of which are seen as effective by community members. Flooding was the most common form of risk in this region, but drought, windstorms, and irregular rainy seasons are also frequent, implying that effective climate adaptation will have to be sensitive to multiple types of risk. Structural interventions (constructing roads, bridges, etc.) were the most common type of intervention, suggesting that communities are capable of marshalling considerable organizational and human power for adaptation efforts, even in the absence of external assistance. Efforts to boost community resilience and adaptation to climate change would benefit from first understanding what community actions are currently underway, and working with the groups implementing these actions to support and extend them.}, keywords = {climate change resilience community adaptation Nigeria flooding}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su11113100}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1550, author = {Cholo, Tesfaye and Fleskens, Luuk and Sietz, Diana and Peerlings, Jack}, title = {Is Land Fragmentation Facilitating or Obstructing Adoption of Climate Adaptation Measures in Ethiopia?}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su10072120}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1551, author = {Chu, Eric and Anguelovski, Isabelle and Roberts, Debra}, title = {Climate adaptation as strategic urbanism: assessing opportunities and uncertainties for equity and inclusive development in cities}, journal = {Cities}, volume = {60}, pages = {378-387}, keywords = {Climate change adaptation Strategic planning Development Governance Cities}, ISSN = {0264-2751}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.10.016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275116301081}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1552, author = {Chuang, Ting-Wu and Soble, Adam and Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu and Mkhonta, Nomcebo and Seyama, Eric and Mthethwa, Steven and Pindolia, Deepa and Kunene, Simon}, title = {Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination}, journal = {Malaria Journal}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {232}, ISSN = {1475-2875}, DOI = {10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-1874-0}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1553, author = {Cinner, Joshua E. and Adger, W. Neil and Allison, Edward H. and Barnes, Michele L. and Brown, Katrina and Cohen, Philippa J. and Gelcich, Stefan and Hicks, Christina C. and Hughes, Terry P. and Lau, Jacqueline and Marshall, Nadine A. and Morrison, Tiffany H.}, title = {Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {117-123}, ISSN = {1758-678X 1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-017-0065-x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0065-x}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1554, author = {Cissé, G.}, title = {Food-borne and water-borne diseases under climate change in low- and middle-income countries: Further efforts needed for reducing environmental health exposure risks}, journal = {Acta Tropica}, volume = {194}, pages = {181-188}, keywords = {Climate change Environmental health Food-borne diseases Infectious diseases Water-borne diseases infectious-diseases foodborne prevalence sanitation Parasitology Tropical Medicine}, ISSN = {0001-706X}, DOI = {10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.03.012}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1555, author = {Claon, Jean Stephane. and Amalaman, Marc Auriol. and Seri, Kipré Laurent. and Djaman, Allico Joseph. and Kouadio, Kouakou Luc. and Diomande, Beh Ibrahim.}, title = {Water scarcity in African cities: anthropic factors or climate change? Case of Bouake (Côte d’Ivoire)}, month = {7-11 December 2020}, url = {https://en.unesco.org/sites/default/files/claon_0.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Conference Paper} } @inbook{RN1556, author = {Clapp, Christa and Pillay, Kamleshan}, title = {Green Bonds and Climate Finance}, booktitle = {Climate Finance}, series = {World Scientific Series on the Economics of Climate Change}, publisher = {World Scientific}, volume = {2}, pages = {79-105}, note = {doi:10.1142/9789814641814_0005}, abstract = {Green bonds apply environmental labelling to traditional bonds for financing green and climate projects. The green bond market has grown rapidly in recent years, and shows promise for furthering climate action. Multilateral development banks have been most active in issuing green bonds to support their environment and development agendas, but corporations and municipalities are also beginning to issue green bonds. To what extent can green bonds provide finance for climate action in developing countries? Emerging economies are becoming more active in the green bond market. The case of Johannesburg, the first city in an emerging country to issue a green bond, is examined for potential replication. Challenges and opportunities relating to green bond demonstration and governance, de-risking, and green integrity are also explored.}, ISBN = {978-981-4641-80-7}, DOI = {10.1142/9789814641814_0005}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814641814_0005}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @book{RN1557, author = {Clarke, J. and Brooks, N.}, title = {The Archaeology of Western Sahara}, publisher = {Oxbow Books}, address = {Oxford}, series = {A Synthesis of Fieldwork, 2002 to 2009}, url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvh1dh5w.15}, year = {2018}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1558, author = {Clay, N. and Zimmerer, K. S.}, title = {Who is resilient in Africa's Green Revolution? Sustainable intensification and Climate Smart Agriculture in Rwanda}, journal = {Land use policy}, volume = {97}, pages = {104558}, note = {Clay, Nathan Zimmerer, Karl S eng England Land use policy. 2020 Sep;97:104558. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104558.}, abstract = {Under the banner of a "New Green Revolution for Africa," agricultural intensification programs aim to make smallholder agriculture more productive as well as "climate smart". As with Green Revolutions in Asia and Mexico, agricultural innovations (hybrid seeds, agronomic engineering, market linkages,and increased use of fertilizer and pesticides) are promoted as essential catalysts of agriculture-led economic growth. Intensification programs are now frequently linked to Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), which attempts to build resilience and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while increasing crop yields. This article considers who and what is resilient in Africa's Green Revolution. We report on a multi-season study of smallholder food producers' experiences with Rwanda's Crop Intensification Program (CIP) and related policies that aim to commercialize subsistence agriculture while implementing CSA. . We suggest that there are fundamental limits to the climate resilience afforded by CSA and development efforts rooted in Green Revolution thinking. Our findings illustrate that such efforts foreground technology and management adjustments in ways that have reduced smallholder resilience by inhibiting sovereignty over land use, decreasing livelihood flexibility, and constricting resource access. We put forth that rural development policies could better promote climate-resilient livelihoods through: 1) adaptive governance that enables smallholder land use decision-making; 2) support for smallholder food producers' existing agro-ecological strategies of intensification; 3) participatory approaches to visualize and correct for inequalities in local processes of social-ecological resilence Such considerations are paramount for meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and building climate-resilient food systems.}, keywords = {Agricultural intensification Climate Smart Agriculture Climate change Food sovereignty Resilience Vulnerability}, ISSN = {0264-8377 (Print) 0264-8377 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104558}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32884163}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1559, author = {Climate Action Tracker}, title = {Climate governance assessment of the government’s ability and readiness to transform South Africa into a zero emissions society}, institution = {Climate Action Tracker,}, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/837/2020_12_CAT_Governance_Report_South_Africa.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @unpublished{RN1560, author = {Closset, Mathilde and FEINDOUNO, Sosso and Guillaumont, Patrick and Simonet, Catherine}, title = {A Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index: Which are the most vulnerable developing countries?}, note = {Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and FinanceOther publications}, abstract = {The recognition of climate change as a dominant issue for the global economy and policy has led to a search for resources for fi nancing mitigation and adaptation. While raising funds for mitigation and for adaptation meet similar problems, their allocation between countries cannot be ruled by the same criteria. For the concessional funds devoted to adaptation allocation criteria should specifi cally refl ect the adaptation needs of the recipient countries (beside their level of income and their capacity to eff ectively use the funds). An appropriate indicator of vulnerability to climate change is then requiredfor guiding the allocation of adaptation resources. Not any indicator of vulnerability to climate change can fit this purpose.}, url = {https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01719925}, year = {2017}, type = {Unpublished Work} } @article{RN1561, author = {Cobbing, Jude and Hiller, Bradley}, title = {Waking a sleeping giant: Realizing the potential of groundwater in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {122}, pages = {597-613}, abstract = {Unlike many global regions, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has yet to undergo a groundwater revolution. In this paper we confirm that for most SSA countries current groundwater use remains under 5% of national sustainable yield. This is likely to be a constraint on wider economic development and on addressing vulnerabilities to climate change and other shocks. Groundwater use has supported the process of economic structural change in other global regions; hence we derive an empirical model for groundwater use to support economic development, comprising trigger, boom and maturation phases. We identify that the trigger phase depends on political and economic (‘secondary’) factors, in addition to resource characteristics. The boom phase is described as ‘semi anarchic’, while the maturation phase is characterized by slowing abstractions but continued economic benefits. In SSA, we posit that the predominance of limiting secondary factors, coupled with a discourse of caution and focus on the maturation phase (more appropriate for other regions), is constraining the use of groundwater for economic development. We suggest that groundwater has the potential to be a foundational resource to support irrigated agriculture, urban and rural water security, and drought resilience across the region, as it has in many other global regions. We argue that overcoming the current barriers and costs to groundwater development can be offset by the benefits of regional socioeconomic development and increased resilience. In the context of enduring poverty and recurrent humanitarian crises in SSA, this new synthesis of information suggests that such an underutilization of sustainable groundwater is unjustifiable. Stakeholders active in the region should prioritize groundwater development to help facilitate a transition to higher value-added activities and greater regional prosperity and resilience, and ensure that measures are put in place for this to be done sustainably. We conclude with some ideas to help trigger such development in SSA.}, keywords = {Groundwater Sub Saharan Africa Political economy factors Irrigation Urban and rural water security Resilience}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.024}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19301767}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1562, author = {CoCT}, title = {Cape Town Water Strategy (2019): Our shared water future}, institution = {City of Cape Town,}, url = {https://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/City%20strategies,%20plans%20and%20frameworks/Cape%20Town%20Water%20Strategy.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1563, author = {Codjoe, Samuel and Nabie, Vivian}, title = {Climate change and cerebrospinal meningitis in the Ghanaian meningitis belt}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, pages = {6923–6939}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110706923}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1564, author = {Codjoe, Samuel N. A. and Gough, Katherine V. and Wilby, Robert L. and Kasei, Raymond and Yankson, Paul W. K. and Amankwaa, Ebenezer F. and Abarike, Mercy A. and Atiglo, D. Yaw and Kayaga, Sam and Mensah, Peter and Nabilse, Cuthbert K. and Griffiths, Paula L.}, title = {Impact of extreme weather conditions on healthcare provision in urban Ghana}, journal = {Social Science & Medicine}, volume = {258}, pages = {113072}, keywords = {Extreme weather events Urban areas Health care Resilience Health infrastructure Ghana}, ISSN = {0277-9536}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113072}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953620302914}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1565, author = {Codjoe, Samuel Nii Ardey and Owusu, George and Burkett, Virginia}, title = {Perception, experience, and indigenous knowledge of climate change and variability: The case of Accra, a sub-Saharan African city}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {369-383}, keywords = {Accra Climate change Climate variability Experiences Indigenous knowledge Perceptions Urban}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0500-0}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1566, author = {Coen, Deborah R.}, title = {A brief history of usable climate science}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {167}, number = {3}, pages = {51}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-021-03181-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03181-2}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1567, author = {Coffel, E. and Horton, R.}, title = {Climate Change and the Impact of Extreme Temperatures on Aviation}, journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {94-102}, DOI = {10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00026.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/7/1/wcas-d-14-00026_1.xml}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1568, author = {Coffel, E. D. and Horton, R. M. and de Sherbinin, A.}, title = {Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21(st) century}, journal = {Environ Res Lett}, volume = {13}, number = {1}, pages = {014001}, ISSN = {1748-9326 (Print) 1748-9326 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32818039}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1569, author = {Cohen, A. S. and Gergurich, E. L. and Kraemer, B. M. and McGlue, M. M. and McIntyre, P. B. and Russell, J. M. and Simmons, J. D. and Swarzenski, P. W.}, title = {Climate warming reduces fish production and benthic habitat in Lake Tanganyika, one of the most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {113}, number = {34}, pages = {9563-8}, keywords = {Animals Biota/physiology *Climate Change Diatoms/*physiology Fishes/*physiology Fossils Lakes Mollusca/*physiology Population Dynamics/trends Tanzania Temperature *Lake Tanganyika *fisheries *freshwater biodiversity *paleoecology}, ISSN = {1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1603237113}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27503877}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1570, author = {Cohen, Brett and Cowie, Annette and Babiker, Mustafa and Leip, Adrian and Smith, Pete}, title = {Co-benefits and trade-offs of climate change mitigation actions and the Sustainable Development Goals}, journal = {Sustainable Production and Consumption}, volume = {26}, pages = {805-813}, ISSN = {2352-5509}, DOI = {10.1016/j.spc.2020.12.034}, url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2020.12.034}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1571, author = {Colborn, Kathryn L. and Giorgi, Emanuele and Monaghan, Andrew J. and Gudo, Eduardo and Candrinho, Baltazar and Marrufo, Tatiana J. and Colborn, James M.}, title = {Spatio-temporal modelling of weekly malaria incidence in children under 5 for early epidemic detection in Mozambique}, journal = {Sci. Rep.}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {9238}, ISSN = {2045-2322}, DOI = {10.1038/s41598-018-27537-4}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-27537-4 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29915366 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6006329}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1572, author = {Coldrey, K.M. and Turpie, J.K.}, title = {Potential impacts of changing climate on nature-based tourism: A case study of South Africa’s national parks}, journal = {Koedoe}, volume = {62}, number = {1}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v62i1.1629 }, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1574, author = {Cole, Hugh D. and Cole, Megan J. and Simpson, Kayleen J. and Simpson, Nicholas P. and Ziervogel, Gina. and New, Mark G.}, title = {Managing city-scale slow-onset disasters: Learning from Cape Town’s 2015-2018 drought disaster planning}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {63}, number = {September 2021}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102459}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1573, author = {Cole, Hugh D. and Cole, Megan J. and Simpson, Kayleen J. and Simpson, Nicholas P. and Ziervogel, Gina and New, Mark G.}, title = {Managing city-scale slow-onset disasters: Learning from Cape Town's 2015–2018 drought disaster planning}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {63}, ISSN = {22124209}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102459}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1575, author = {Collins, M. and Sutherland, M and Bouwer, L and Cheong, S.-M. and Frölicher, T and Jacot Des Combes, H and Koll Roxy, M and Losada, I and McInnes, K and Ratter, B and Rivera-Arriaga, E and Susanto, R.D. and Swingedouw, D. and Tibig, L.}, title = {Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/10_SROCC_Ch06_FINAL.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1576, author = {CoM SSA}, title = {Climate Finance Landscape for sub-Saharan Cities}, institution = {Covenant of Mayors for Sub-Saharan Africa (CoM SSA),}, url = {https://africa.iclei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020_Publication_Financing-SEACAPs-Mapping-Report-English.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1577, author = {Commission of Social Determinants of Health}, title = {Closing the gap in a generation: health equity through action on the social determinants of health. Final Report of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health}, institution = {World Health Organization}, url = {http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/43943/9789241563703_eng.pdf;jsessionid=4A55149E474B1A3C8BD54A190F5F5891?sequence=1}, year = {2008}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1578, author = {Connolly-Boutin, Liette and Smit, Barry}, title = {Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {385-399}, ISSN = {1436-3798}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0761-x}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1579, author = {Conradie, Shannon R. and Woodborne, Stephan M. and Cunningham, Susan J. and McKechnie, Andrew E.}, title = {Chronic, sublethal effects of high temperatures will cause severe declines in southern African arid-zone birds during the 21st century}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {116}, number = {28}, pages = {14065}, abstract = {We synthesized physiological and behavioral data to evaluate the risks of acute, lethal effects of extreme heat events versus the sublethal costs of chronic exposure to sustained hot weather for birds inhabiting southern Africa’s Kalahari Desert over the course of the 21st century. The risk of mass mortality events similar to those predicted for the American southwest and sometimes observed in Australia will remain low for Kalahari birds. However, the sublethal costs of chronic exposure, manifested as progressive loss of body condition, delayed fledging, reduced fledging size, and outright breeding failure, will likely drive major population declines. We anticipate that much of the Kalahari’s avian biodiversity will be lost by the end of the century.Birds inhabiting hot, arid regions are among the terrestrial organisms most vulnerable to climate change. The potential for increasingly frequent and intense heat waves to cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia is well documented, but the consequences of sublethal fitness costs associated with chronic exposure to sustained hot weather remain unclear. Using data for species occurring in southern Africa’s Kalahari Desert, we mapped exposure to acute lethal risks and chronic sublethal fitness costs under past, present, and future climates. For inactive birds in shaded microsites, the risks of lethal dehydration and hyperthermia will remain low during the 21st century. In contrast, exposure to conditions associated with chronic, sublethal costs related to progressive body mass loss, reduced nestling growth rates, or increased breeding failure will expand dramatically. For example, by the 2080s the region will experience 10–20 consecutive days per year on which Southern Pied Babblers (Turdoides bicolor) will lose ∼4% of body mass per day, conditions under which this species’ persistence will be extremely unlikely. Similarly, exposure to air temperature maxima associated with delayed fledging, reduced fledgling size, and breeding failure will increase several-fold in Southern Yellow-billed Hornbills (Tockus leucomelas) and Southern Fiscals (Lanius collaris). Our analysis reveals that sublethal costs of chronic heat exposure are likely to drive large declines in avian diversity in the southern African arid zone by the end of the century.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1821312116}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/28/14065.abstract}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @phdthesis{RN1580, author = {Conteh, I.K.}, title = {Natural Hazards and Education. The Impact of Floods on Primary School Education in Zambia}, university = {Maastricht University}, DOI = {10.26481/dis.20150616ic}, url = {https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/en/publications/a0ba8605-7764-4586-a1be-2a831041d153}, year = {2015}, type = {Thesis} } @article{RN1581, author = {Contractor, Steefan and Donat, Markus and Alexandre, Lisa V and Ziese, Markus and Meyer-Christoffer, Anja and Schneider, Udo and Rustemeier, Elke and Becker, Andreas and Durre, Imke and Vose, Russell S}, title = {Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN)–a global land-based gridded dataset of daily precipitation from 1950 to 2016}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)}, volume = {24}, number = {2}, pages = {919-943}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-919-2020}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1582, author = {Conway, Declan and Dalin, Carole and Landman, Willem A. and Osborn, Timothy J.}, title = {Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption}, journal = {Nature Energy}, volume = {2}, number = {12}, pages = {946-953}, abstract = {Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.}, ISSN = {2058-7546}, DOI = {10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1583, author = {Conway, Declan and van Garderen, Emma Archer and Deryng, Delphine and Dorling, Steve and Krueger, Tobias and Landman, Willem and Lankford, Bruce and Lebek, Karen and Osborn, Tim and Ringler, Claudia and Thurlow, James and Zhu, Tingju and Dalin, Carole}, title = {Climate and southern Africa's water–energy–food nexus}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {837-846}, abstract = {Water, energy and food security in southern Africa are interdependent and exposed to the climate. This Review considers the extent to which spatial and sectoral interdependencies can be, and are being, considered.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2735}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2735}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1584, author = {Conway, Declan and Vincent, Katharine}, title = {Climate Risk in Africa: Adaptation and Resilience}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, address = {Cham, Switzerland}, edition = {1}, ISBN = {978-3-030-61160-6}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61160-6}, url = {https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-030-61160-6.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1585, author = {Cook, B. I. and Mankin, J. S. and Marvel, K. and Williams, A. P. and Smerdon, J. E. and Anchukaitis, K. J.}, title = {Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios}, journal = {Earth's Future}, volume = {8}, number = {6}, pages = {e2019EF001461}, abstract = {Abstract There is strong evidence that climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200?300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature-sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate that both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.}, keywords = {drought CMIP6}, ISSN = {2328-4277}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1586, author = {Cook, Kerry H. and Fitzpatrick, Rory G. J. and Liu, Weiran and Vizy, Edward K.}, title = {Seasonal asymmetry of equatorial East African rainfall projections: understanding differences between the response of the long rains and the short rains to increased greenhouse gases}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {55}, number = {7}, pages = {1759-1777}, abstract = {Ensemble simulations with a regional climate model on a large domain and 30-km resolution are used to understand why projected precipitation changes under greenhouse gas-forcing are asymmetric across seasons in equatorial East Africa, with rainfall increasing during the short rains (October through December) but not during the long rains (March through May). The model captures an accurate simulation of observed East African precipitation improving over coupled GCM simulations. Future simulations are generated by increasing atmospheric CO2 according to the RCP8.5 scenario and adding anomalies to observed SSTs as well as initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from coupled GCM simulations. In November, simulated rainfall rates increase by approximately one-third over much of equatorial East Africa by the mid-twenty-first century, and double by the end of the century. The long rains are not significantly increased. The difference in the seasonal response is attributed to differences in the background state. The East African short rains are greatest in November, more than 1 month after the autumnal equinox, when the climatological basic state is in a solstitial pattern. The well-defined heat low over southern Africa and the South Indian Ocean subtropical high to its east are intensified, leading to enhanced moisture convergence over equatorial East Africa. In contrast, the long rains are near their maximum on the vernal equinox, with a continental thermal low centered near the equator that is insensitive to twenty-first century greenhouse gas-induced changes in the subtropical atmospheric hydrodynamics.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-020-05350-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05350-y}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1587, author = {Cook, Kerry H. and Vizy, Edward K.}, title = {Detection and Analysis of an Amplified Warming of the Sahara Desert}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {28}, number = {16}, pages = {6560-6580}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00230.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/16/jcli-d-14-00230.1.xml}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1588, author = {Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Raffaele, Francesca and Fuentes-Franco, Ramon and Giuliani, Graziano and Llopart-Pereira, Marta and Mamgain, Ashu and Mariotti, Laura and Diro, Gulilat Tefera and Torma, Csaba}, title = {Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {125}, number = {1}, pages = {23-38}, abstract = {We provide an overall assessment of the surface air temperature and precipitation present day (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) ensemble climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. This consists of simulations performed with different configurations (physics schemes) of the ICTP regional model RegCM4 over five CORDEX domains (Africa, Mediterranean, Central America, South America, South Asia), driven by different combinations of three global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The biases (1976–2005) in the driving and nested model ensembles compared to observations show a high degree of spatial variability and, when comparing GCMs and RegCM4, similar magnitudes and more similarity for precipitation than for temperature. The large scale patterns of change (2070–2099 minus 1976–2005) are broadly consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles and with previous analyses of GCM projections, indicating that the GCMs selected in the CREMA experiment are representative of the more general behavior of current GCMs. The RegCM4, however, shows a lower climate sensitivity (reduced warming) than the driving GCMs, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. While the broad patterns of precipitation change are consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles, greater differences are found at sub-regional scales over the various domains, evidently tied to the representation of local processes. This paper serves to provide a reference view of the behavior of the CREMA ensemble, while more detailed and process-based analysis of individual domains is left to companion papers of this special issue.}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-014-1137-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1137-9}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1589, author = {Corbane, Christina and Florczyk, Aneta and Pesaresi, Martino and Politis, Panagiotis and Syrris, Vasileios}, title = {GHS built-up grid, derived from Landsat, multitemporal (1975-1990-2000-2014)}, publisher = {European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)}, DOI = {10.2905/jrc-ghsl-10007}, year = {2018}, type = {Dataset} } @inbook{RN1590, author = {Cornforth, Rosalind J. and Petty, Celia and Walker, Grady}, title = {Supporting Climate-Resilient Planning at National and District Levels: A Pathway to Multi-stakeholder Decision-Making in Uganda}, booktitle = {Climate Risk in Africa: Adaptation and Resilience}, editor = {Conway, Declan and Vincent, Katharine}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, pages = {131-145}, ISBN = {978-3-030-61160-6}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-030-61160-6_8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61160-6_8}, year = {2021}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1591, author = {Cosens, Barbara A. and Craig, Robin K. and Hirsch, Shana Lee and Arnold, Craig Anthony Tony and Benson, Melinda H. and DeCaro, Daniel A. and Garmestani, Ahjond S. and Gosnell, Hannah and Ruhl, J. B. and Schlager, Edella}, title = {The role of law in adaptive governance}, journal = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {1-30}, note = {29780426[pmid] PMC5954422[pmcid]}, abstract = {The term "governance" encompasses both governmental and nongovernmental participation in collective choice and action. Law dictates the structure, boundaries, rules, and processes within which governmental action takes place, and in doing so becomes one of the focal points for analysis of barriers to adaptation as the effects of climate change are felt. Adaptive governance must therefore contemplate a level of flexibility and evolution in governmental action beyond that currently found in the heavily administrative governments of many democracies. Nevertheless, over time, law itself has proven highly adaptive in western systems of government, evolving to address and even facilitate the emergence of new social norms (such as the rights of women and minorities) or to provide remedies for emerging problems (such as pollution). Thus, there is no question that law can adapt, evolve, and be reformed to make room for adaptive governance. In doing this, not only may barriers be removed, but law may be adjusted to facilitate adaptive governance and to aid in institutionalizing new and emerging approaches to governance. The key is to do so in a way that also enhances legitimacy, accountability, and justice, or else such reforms will never be adopted by democratic societies, or if adopted, will destabilize those societies. By identifying those aspects of the frameworks for adaptive governance reviewed in the introduction to this special feature relevant to the legal system, we present guidelines for evaluating the role of law in environmental governance to identify the ways in which law can be used, adapted, and reformed to facilitate adaptive governance and to do so in a way that enhances the legitimacy of governmental action.}, keywords = {adaptive governance administrative law environmental governance resilience water law}, ISSN = {1708-3087}, DOI = {10.5751/ES-08731-220130}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29780426 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5954422/}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1592, author = {Costinot, A. and Donaldson, D. and Smith, C.}, title = {Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from a 9 Million-Field Partition of the Earth}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1593, author = {Coulibaly, Jeanne Y. and Chiputwa, Brian and Nakelse, Tebila and Kundhlande, Godfrey}, title = {Adoption of agroforestry and the impact on household food security among farmers in Malawi}, journal = {Agricultural Systems}, volume = {155}, pages = {52-69}, abstract = {Agroforestry is increasingly regarded as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy against climate change. In particular, the use of fertilizer trees has been promoted as a practice that contributes to improved soil fertility through nitrogen fixation, by increasing supply of nutrients for crop production. While a lot of the evidence on the impact of fertilizer trees relies on on-farm experiments and correlational analysis, there is a paucity of rigorous evidence under actual smallholder farming conditions. This paper analyzes the impacts of adopting fertilizer trees such as Gliricidia sepium and Faidherbia albida on household food security. We draw on survey data of 338 farmers in Malawi and use an endogenous switching regression to rigorously analyze adoption impacts. Econometric results show that use of fertilizer tree adoption increases the value of food crops by 35%. Disaggregation of the impacts through stratification by land ownership further reveal that farmers with smaller farms of up to 2 acres realize the highest gains. Furthermore, fertilizer tree use in conjunction with improved maize seed also significantly increased value of food crops. This study offers preliminary insights that contribute to an emerging field of research on quantitative assessment of agricultural interventions such as agroforestry practices using novel analytical approaches. We provide some policy insights and recommend the need for future research to be designed around development initiatives that consider fine-scale variation in social, economic and ecological context of farmers to improve uptake and adaptation to realize the full potential of agroforestry in improving soil fertility and household food security.}, keywords = {Agroforestry Fertilizer trees Soil fertility Food security Endogenous switching regression Maize systems}, ISSN = {0308-521X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X17303001}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1594, author = {Coultas, M. and Iyer, R.}, title = {Handwashing Compendium for Low Resource Settings: A Living Document}, publisher = {The Sanitation Learning Hub}, DOI = {https://globalhandwashing.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Handwashing_Compendium_for_Low_Cost_Settings_Edition_1.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Generic} } @article{RN1595, author = {Couttenier, Mathieu and Soubeyran, Raphael}, title = {Drought and Civil War in Sub‐Saharan Africa}, journal = {The Economic Journal}, volume = {124}, number = {575}, pages = {201-244}, ISSN = {0013-0133 1468-0297}, DOI = {10.1111/ecoj.12042}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecoj.12042}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1596, author = {Cowx, Ian G. and Lungu, Alphart and Kalonga, Mainza}, title = {Optimising hydropower development and ecosystem services in the Kafue River, Zambia}, journal = {Marine and Freshwater Research}, volume = {69}, number = {12}, pages = {1974-1982}, abstract = {Fisheries are an important resource in Zambia, but are experiencing overexploitation and are under increasing pressure from external development activities that are compromising river ecosystem services and functioning. One such system is the Kafue Flats floodplain, which is under threat from hydropower development. This paper reviews the effect of potential hydropower development on the Kafue Flats floodplain and explores mechanisms to optimise the expansion of hydropower while maintaining the ecosystem functioning and services that the floodplain delivers. Since completion of the Kafue Gorge and Itezhi-tezhi dams, seasonal fluctuations in the height and extent of flooding have been suppressed. This situation is likely to get worse with the proposed incorporation of a hydropower scheme into Itezhi-tezhi dam, which will operate under a hydropeaking regime. This will have major ramifications for the fish communities and ecosystem functioning and is likely to result in the demise of the fishery, along with destruction of the wetlands and associated wildlife. To redress the problem, it is recommended that an environmental-flow study is conducted, as initiated by World Wildlife Fund, to protect provision of the existing ecosystem services and optimise hydropower development, thus ensuring sustainability of the aquatic resources of the Kafue Flats for future generations.}, keywords = {fisheries, floodplain ecology, flow regulation, livelihoods, SDGs, wildlife.}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1071/MF18132}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/MF18132}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1597, author = {Cowx, Ian G. and Ogutu-Ohwayo, Richard}, title = {Towards sustainable fisheries and aquaculture management in the African Great Lakes}, journal = {Fisheries Management and Ecology}, volume = {26}, number = {August}, pages = {397-405}, keywords = {institute jinja national fisheries resources research uganda}, DOI = {10.1111/fme.12391}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1598, author = {CPI}, title = {Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2019}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative (CPI)}, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2019-Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1599, author = {Craig, Robin Kundis}, title = {Stationarity is Dead - Long Live Transformation: Five Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Law}, journal = {Harvard Environmental Law Review}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {9-74}, url = {https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/helr34&i=11 https://heinonline.org/HOL/PrintRequest?handle=hein.journals/helr34&collection=journals&div=5&id=11&print=section&sction=5}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1600, author = {Crate, Susan A. and Nuttall, Mark}, title = {From local to global: perceptions and realities of environmental change among Kalahari San}, booktitle = {Anthropology and Climate Change}, publisher = {Routledge}, pages = {250-262}, year = {2016}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1601, author = {Crawford, Robert J. M. and Makhado, Azwianewi B. and Whittington, Philip A. and Randall, Rod M. and Oosthuizen, W. Herman and Waller, Lauren J.}, title = {A changing distribution of seabirds in South Africa—the possible impact of climate and its consequences}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {3}, number = {10}, keywords = {behavioural inertia,Benguela ecosystem,Competition with fisheries,distributional change,environmental forcing,forage resources,mainland breeding,seabirds}, ISSN = {2296-701X}, DOI = {10.3389/fevo.2015.00010}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2015.00010}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1602, author = {CRED}, title = {Disasters in Africa: 20 year review (2000–2019)}, publisher = {Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters.}, number = {56}, pages = {2}, url = {https://www.emdat.be/cred-crunch-56-disasters-africa-20-year-review-2000-2019}, year = {2019}, type = {Electronic Article} } @article{RN1603, author = {Creese, A. and Washington, R.}, title = {A Process-Based Assessment of CMIP5 Rainfall in the Congo Basin: The September–November Rainy Season}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {31}, number = {18}, pages = {7417-7439}, keywords = {Africa,Atmospheric circulation,Climate models,General circulation models,Model errors,Model evaluation/performance}, ISSN = {0894-8755 1520-0442}, DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-17-0818.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0818.1}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1604, author = {Crick, Florence and Gannon, Kate Elizabeth and Diop, Mamadou and Sow, Momadou}, title = {Enabling private sector adaptation to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {e505}, ISSN = {1757-7780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.505}, url = {https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.505}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1605, author = {Crippa, Monica and Guizzardi, Diego and Muntean, Marilena and Schaaf, Edwin and Lo Vullo, Eleonora and Solazzo, Efisio and Monforti-Ferrario, Fabio and Olivier, Jos and Vignati, Elisabetta }, title = {EDGAR v6.0 Greenhouse Gas Emissions}, institution = {European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)}, url = {http://data.europa.eu/89h/97a67d67-c62e-4826-b873-9d972c4f670b}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1606, author = {Croitoru, Lelia and Miranda, Juan José and Sarraf, Maria}, title = {The Cost of Coastal Zone Degradation In West Africa: Benin, Côte D’ivoire, Senegal And Togo}, number = {135269}, month = {10/04/2019}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1596/31428}, url = {https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31428}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1607, author = {Cromsigt, Jpgm and Te Beest, M. and Kerley, G. I. H. and Landman, M. and le Roux, E. and Smith, F. A.}, title = {Trophic rewilding as a climate change mitigation strategy?}, journal = {Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci}, volume = {373}, number = {1761}, keywords = {Animals Biodiversity *Climate Change Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods *Ecosystem Food Chain *Herbivory Mammals/*physiology *Earth system *conservation *ecosystem function *large herbivores and carnivores *megafauna *megaherbivores}, ISSN = {1471-2970 (Electronic) 0962-8436 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1098/rstb.2017.0440}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30348867}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1608, author = {CSC}, title = {Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin}, institution = {Climate Service Centre}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1609, author = {CTA}, title = {The digitalisation of African agriculture report 2018-2019}, institution = {The Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA)}, url = {https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/handle/10568/101498/CTA-Digitalisation-report.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1610, author = {Cui, Yifei and Cheng, Deqiang and Choi, Clarence E. and Jin, Wen and Lei, Yu and Kargel, Jeffrey S.}, title = {The cost of rapid and haphazard urbanization: lessons learned from the Freetown landslide disaster}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {1167-1176}, abstract = {Urbanization has been linked to destructive geo-hazards that can cause loss of life, destruction of property, and environmental damage. On August 14, 2017, a devastating geo-hazard chain—a debris slide, debris flow, and sediment-laden flood—in Freetown, Sierra Leone resulted in at least 500 deaths and over 600 missing persons and the destruction of hundreds of houses. This study uses 10 years of high-resolution satellite images to conduct a remote sensing analysis of the disaster. Although rainfall was the trigger, rapid and haphazard urbanization acted to increase both hazard and vulnerability. Specifically, poor urban planning with inadequate consideration of risk led to housing construction in dangerous areas; clearance of hillside vegetation increased erosion potential; very low cost buildings using frail construction material and methods lacked resilience; and insufficient risk management led to weak emergency response.}, ISSN = {1612-5118}, DOI = {10.1007/s10346-019-01167-x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01167-x}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1611, author = {Cullen, N. J. and Sirguey, P. and Mölg, T. and Kaser, G. and Winkler, M. and Fitzsimons, S. J.}, title = {A century of ice retreat on Kilimanjaro: the mapping reloaded}, journal = {The Cryosphere}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {419-431}, ISSN = {1994-0424}, DOI = {10.5194/tc-7-419-2013}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1612, author = {Cullis, James and Alton, Theresa and Arndt, Channing and Cartwright, Anton and Chang, Alice and Gabriel, Sherwin and Gebretsadik, Yohannes and Hartley, Faaiqa and de Jager, Gerald and Makrelov, Konstantin and Robertson, Gordon and Schlosser, C. Adam and Strzepek, Kenneth and Thurlow, James}, title = {An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa}, publisher = {UNU-WIDER}, volume = {2015}, abstract = { This study represents the first attempt at an integrated approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the national economy of South Africa via a number of (but not necessarily all) impact channels. The study focuses on outcomes by about 2050. The results show the multiple impacts of climate change and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in these impacts. The study focused in particular on the potential impacts of climate change on the water supply sector, dry-land agriculture, hydropower, roads infrastructure costs and sea level rise. These factors have not been previously considered in a fully integrated way for South Africa. The study considers two future global emissions scenarios-- an Unconstrained Emission Scenario (UCE) where global policies to reduce emissions fail to materialize and a Level 1 Stabilization Scenario (L1S) where aggressive emissions policies are pursued. Based on the full range of impact channels considered, economic impacts are showed to be potentially significant particularly resulting from additional roads infrastructure costs and variability in dryland agricultural yields, with only limited impacts due to variability in the ability to supply future water demands. The total impact of climate change on the level of real GDP by about 2050 is found to range between -3.8% and 0.3% compared with a fictional 'no climate change' baseline. While positive outcomes are possible, results indicate that, for the very large majority of climate futures, the impact on total GDP will be negative. The median result shows that by 2050, South Africa’s real GDP level will be about 1.5% lower than in the baseline scenario. This translates into a 0.03 percentage point decline in average annual real GDP growth rate. The net present value of the potential impact on GDP out to 2050 is highly variable, ranging from losses of R 930 billion to gains of R 310 billion (real 2007 Rand). About 96% of the climates scenarios show overall losses. The median loss in NPV is approximately Rand 259 billion which, at more than 10% of 2007 GDP, is sizeable and should motivate for action in terms of both mitigation and consideration and funding of potential adaptation scenarios.}, ISBN = {978-92-9230-934-3}, year = {2015}, type = {Generic} } @techreport{RN1613, author = {Cullmann, J. and Dilley, M. and Egerton, P. and Fowler, J. and Grasso, V. and Honoré, C. and Lúcio, F. and Luterbacher, J. and Nullis, C. and Power, M. and Rea, A. and Repnik, M. and Stander, J. }, title = {State of Climate Services: Risk Information and Early Warning Systems}, institution = {World Meteorological Organisation}, url = {https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10385}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1614, author = {Cumming, Tracey L. and Shackleton, Ross T. and Förster, Johannes and Dini, John and Khan, Ahmed and Gumula, Mpho and Kubiszewski, Ida}, title = {Achieving the national development agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through investment in ecological infrastructure: A case study of South Africa}, journal = {Ecosystem Services}, volume = {27}, pages = {253-260}, abstract = {Ecological infrastructure (EI) refers to ecosystems that deliver services to society, functioning as a nature-based equivalent of, or complement to, built infrastructure. EI is critical for socio-economic development, supporting a suite of development imperatives at local, national and international scales. This paper presents the myriad of ways that EI supports sustainable development, using South Africa and the South African National Development Plan as a case study, linking to the Sustainable Development Goals on a global level. We show the need for EI across numerous development and sustainability issues, including food security, water provision, and poverty alleviation. A strategic and multi-sectoral approach to EI investment is essential for allocating scarce public and private resources for achieving economic and social-ecological priorities. Opportunities to unlock investment in EI, both internationally and on the national level, are identified. This includes leveraging private sector investment into landscape management and integrating the costs of managing EI into public sectors that benefit directly from ecosystem services, such as the water sector and infrastructure development. Additionally, investing in EI also aligns well with international development and climate change funds. Investment in EI from a range of innovative sources supports global and national development, while complementing other development investments.}, keywords = {Ecosystem services Natural Resource Management (NRM) Policy Green infrastructure Social-ecological systems South Africa}, ISSN = {2212-0416}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.05.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617303303}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1615, author = {Cunningham, Shaun C. and Cavagnaro, Timothy R. and Mac Nally, Ralph and Paul, Keryn I. and Baker, Patrick J. and Beringer, Jason and Thomson, James R. and Thompson, Ross M.}, title = {Reforestation with native mixed-species plantings in a temperate continental climate effectively sequesters and stabilizes carbon within decades}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {1552-1566}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12746}, abstract = {Abstract Reforestation has large potential for mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. Native mixed-species plantings have a higher potential to reverse biodiversity loss than do plantations of production species, but there are few data on their capacity to store carbon. A chronosequence (5?45 years) of 36 native mixed-species plantings, paired with adjacent pastures, was measured to investigate changes to stocks among C pools following reforestation of agricultural land in the medium rainfall zone (400?800 mm yr?1) of temperate Australia. These mixed-species plantings accumulated 3.09 ± 0.85 t C ha?1 yr?1 in aboveground biomass and 0.18 ± 0.05 t C ha?1 yr?1 in plant litter, reaching amounts comparable to those measured in remnant woodlands by 20 years and 36 years after reforestation respectively. Soil C was slower to increase, with increases seen only after 45 years, at which time stocks had not reached the amounts found in remnant woodlands. The amount of trees (tree density and basal area) was positively associated with the accumulation of carbon in aboveground biomass and litter. In contrast, changes to soil C were most strongly related to the productivity of the location (a forest productivity index and soil N content in the adjacent pasture). At 30 years, native mixed-species plantings had increased the stability of soil C stocks, with higher amounts of recalcitrant C and higher C : N ratios than their adjacent pastures. Reforestation with native mixed-species plantings did not significantly change the availability of macronutrients (N, K, Ca, Mg, P, and S) or micronutrients (Fe, B, Mn, Zn, and Cu), content of plant toxins (Al, Si), acidity, or salinity (Na, electrical conductivity) in the soil. In this medium rainfall area, native mixed-species plantings provided comparable rates of C sequestration to local production species, with the probable additional benefit of providing better quality habitat for native biota. These results demonstrate that reforestation using native mixed-species plantings is an effective alternative for carbon sequestration to standard monocultures of production species in medium rainfall areas of temperate continental climates, where they can effectively store C, convert C into stable pools and provide greater benefits for biodiversity.}, keywords = {biomass C carbon sequestration chronosequence litter mixed-species plantings recalcitrant C revegetation soil C}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12746}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12746}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1616, author = {Cuthbert, M. O. and Taylor, R. G. and Favreau, G. and Todd, M. C. and Shamsudduha, M. and Villholth, K. G. and MacDonald, A. M. and Scanlon, B. R. and Kotchoni, D. O. V. and Vouillamoz, J. M. and Lawson, F. M. A. and Adjomayi, P. A. and Kashaigili, J. and Seddon, D. and Sorensen, J. P. R. and Ebrahim, G. Y. and Owor, M. and Nyenje, P. M. and Nazoumou, Y. and Goni, I. and Ousmane, B. I. and Sibanda, T. and Ascott, M. J. and Macdonald, D. M. J. and Agyekum, W. and Koussoube, Y. and Wanke, H. and Kim, H. and Wada, Y. and Lo, M. H. and Oki, T. and Kukuric, N.}, title = {Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {572}, number = {7768}, pages = {230-234}, note = {Cuthbert, Mark O Taylor, Richard G Favreau, Guillaume Todd, Martin C Shamsudduha, Mohammad Villholth, Karen G MacDonald, Alan M Scanlon, Bridget R Kotchoni, D O Valerie Vouillamoz, Jean-Michel Lawson, Fabrice M A Adjomayi, Philippe Armand Kashaigili, Japhet Seddon, David Sorensen, James P R Ebrahim, Girma Yimer Owor, Michael Nyenje, Philip M Nazoumou, Yahaya Goni, Ibrahim Ousmane, Boukari Issoufou Sibanda, Tenant Ascott, Matthew J Macdonald, David M J Agyekum, William Koussoube, Youssouf Wanke, Heike Kim, Hyungjun Wada, Yoshihide Lo, Min-Hui Oki, Taikan Kukuric, Neno eng Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't England Nature. 2019 Aug;572(7768):230-234. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7. Epub 2019 Aug 7.}, abstract = {Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation(1,2), maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets(3). Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability-and their sensitivity to climatic variability-are poorly constrained(4,5). Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region(4) are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation-recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation-recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the 'high certainty' consensus regarding decreasing water resources(4) in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation-recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.}, keywords = {Africa South of the Sahara Desert Climate Droughts/statistics & numerical data Groundwater/*analysis *Rain}, ISSN = {1476-4687 (Electronic) 0028-0836 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31391559}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1618, author = {D’agata, Stephanie and Darling, Emily S. and Gurney, Georgina G. and McClanahan, Tim R. and Muthiga, Nyawira A. and Rabearisoa, Ando and Maina, Joseph M.}, title = {Multiscale determinants of social adaptive capacity in small-scale fishing communities}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {108}, pages = {56-66}, abstract = {Climate change is expected to reinforce undesirable social and ecological feedbacks between ecosystem degradation and poverty. This is particularly true for resource-dependent communities in the developing world such as coral reef fishing communities who will have to adapt to those new environmental conditions and novel ecosystems. It is therefore crucial to identify: i) multiscale characteristics that can influence social adaptive capacity of local communities to climate change, and ii) current and future social-ecological conditions related to climate change that might lead communities to experience unsustainable and undesirable states (i.e., “social-ecological traps”). Here, we investigated social adaptive capacity and the relationship to ecological conditions in 29 small-scale fishing communities in Madagascar and Kenya in the Western Indian Ocean. We found that isolation from a market and climate stress had a significant negative relationship with social adaptive capacity, while a higher level of education and the presence of market traders (middlemen) had a positive relationship. In general, resource management through marine protected areas and locally managed marine areas had a positive influence on ecological conditions. Combining social adaptive capacity and ecological conditions revealed that 80 % of fishers households surveyed were experiencing social-ecological states that could lead to unsustainable social-ecological conditions, while 10 % might already be experiencing social-ecological traps. Our findings reveal specific mechanisms by which conservation and development activities can increase social adaptive capacity in coastal communities, including but not limited to: increasing market access and education, and mitigating future climate exposure and unsustainable fishing through improved marine conservation and management.}, keywords = {Social adaptive capacity Coral reef ecosystems Climate change Small-scale fisheries Market accessibility Social-ecological systems}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901119309219}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1619, author = {Dallas, Helen F.}, title = {The influence of thermal history on upper thermal limits of two species of riverine insects: the stonefly, Aphanicerca capensis, and the mayfly, Lestagella penicillata}, journal = {Hydrobiologia}, volume = {781}, number = {1}, pages = {95-108}, ISSN = {0018-8158 1573-5117}, DOI = {10.1007/s10750-016-2826-3}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10750-016-2826-3}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1620, author = {Dallas, Helen F. and Rivers-Moore, Nicholas}, title = {Ecological consequences of global climate change for freshwater ecosystems in South Africa}, journal = {South African Journal of Science}, volume = {110}, number = {5/6}, ISSN = {00382353 19967489}, DOI = {10.1590/sajs.2014/20130274}, url = {http://sajs.co.za/article/view/4173}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1621, author = {Dalu, Tatenda and Wasserman, Ryan J. and Dalu, Mwazvita T. B.}, title = {Agricultural intensification and drought frequency increases may have landscape-level consequences for ephemeral ecosystems}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {983-985}, abstract = {Ephemeral wetlands in arid regions are often degraded or destroyed through poor land-use practice long before they are ever studied or prioritized for conservation. Climate change will likely also have implications for these ecosystems given forecast changes in rainfall patterns in many arid environments. Here, we present a conceptual diagram showing typical and modified ephemeral wetlands in agricultural landscapes and how modification impacts on species diversity and composition.}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13549}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13549}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1622, author = {Daniels, Elizabeth and Bharwani, Sukaina and Gerger Swartling, Åsa and Vulturius, Gregor and Brandon, Karen}, title = {Refocusing the climate services lens: Introducing a framework for co-designing “transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes” to build climate resilience}, journal = {Climate Services}, volume = {19}, ISSN = {24058807}, DOI = {10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100181}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1623, author = {Daoud, Mona}, title = {Is vulnerability to climate change gendered? And how? Insights from Egypt}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, ISSN = {1436-3798 1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-021-01785-z}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1624, author = {Dardel, C. and Kergoat, L. and Hiernaux, P. and Mougin, E. and Grippa, M. and Tucker, C. J.}, title = {Re-greening Sahel: 30years of remote sensing data and field observations (Mali, Niger)}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {140}, pages = {350-364}, abstract = {Desertification of the Sahel region has been debated for decades, while the concept of a “re-greening” Sahel appeared with satellite remote sensing data that allowed vegetation monitoring across wide regions and over increasingly long series of years (nowadays 30years with the GIMMS-3g dataset). However, the scarcity of long-term field observations of vegetation in the Sahel prevents ground validation and deeper analysis of such trends. After assessing the consistency of the new GIMMS-3g NDVI product by comparison to three other AVHRR-NDVI datasets and MODIS NDVI, regional GIMMS-3g NDVI trends over 1981–2011 are analyzed. Trends are found positive and statistically significant almost everywhere in Sahel over the 1981–2011 period. Long-term field observations of the aboveground herbaceous layer mass have been collected within the Gourma region in Mali (1984–2011) and within the Fakara region in western Niger (1994–2011). These observations sample ecosystem and soil diversity, thus enabling estimation of averaged values representative of the Gourma and Fakara. NDVI measurements are found in good agreement with field observations, both over the Gourma and Fakara regions where re-greening and negative trends are observed respectively. A linear regression analysis performed between spatially averaged seasonal NDVI and a weighted average of field measurements explains 59% of the variability for the Gourma region over 1984–2011, and 38% for the Fakara region over 1994–2011. In the Gourma, which is a pastoral region, the re-greening trend is mainly observed over sandy soils, and attests for the ecosystem's resilience to the 1980s' drought, able to react to the more favorable rainfall of the 1990s and 2000s. However, contrasted changes in the landscape's functioning have occurred locally. An increase in erosion and run-off processes in association with decreasing or stable vegetation cover was observed over shallow soils, which occupy 30% of the area. In the agro-pastoral Fakara, the decreasing trends observed both from satellite NDVI and field assessments of herbaceous mass are hardly explained by rainfall. These results give confidence in the dominant positive trends in Sahelian greenness, but indicate that degradation trends can also be observed, both in situ and from satellite time series.}, keywords = {Sahel Desertification Re-greening Trend analysis Herbaceous production NDVI AVHHR Field measurements Mali Niger}, ISSN = {0034-4257}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.09.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425713003325}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1625, author = {Dargie, Greta C. and Lawson, Ian T. and Rayden, Tim J. and Miles, Lera and Mitchard, Edward T. A. and Page, Susan E. and Bocko, Yannick E. and Ifo, Suspense A. and Lewis, Simon L.}, title = {Congo Basin peatlands: threats and conservation priorities}, journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change}, volume = {24}, number = {4}, pages = {669-686}, keywords = {Carbon Congo Conservation Peat Threats}, DOI = {10.1007/s11027-017-9774-8}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1626, author = {Darko, Deborah and Kpessa-Whyte, Michael and Obuobie, Emmanuel and Siakwah, Pius and Torto, Obodai and Tsikata, Dzodzi }, title = {The context and politics of decision making on large dams in Ghana: an overview}, year = {2019}, type = {Manuscript} } @article{RN1627, author = {Darkoh, Esther Love and Larbi, John Aseidu and Lawer, Eric Adjei}, title = {A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana}, journal = {Malar. Res. Treat.}, volume = {2017}, pages = {7820454}, ISSN = {2090-8075}, DOI = {10.1155/2017/7820454}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/7820454 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28255497 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5307250 https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/7820454}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1628, author = {Dass, Pawlok and Houlton, Benjamin Z. and Wang, Yingping and Warlind, David}, title = {Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {7}, pages = {074027}, abstract = {Although natural terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered ~25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the long-term sustainability of this key ecosystem service is under question. Forests have traditionally been viewed as robust carbon (C) sinks; however, extreme heat-waves, drought and wildfire have increased tree mortality, particularly in widespread semi-arid regions, which account for ~41% of Earth’s land surface. Using a set of modeling experiments, we show that California grasslands are a more resilient C sink than forests in response to 21st century changes in climate, with implications for designing climate-smart Cap and Trade offset policies. The resilience of grasslands to rising temperatures, drought and fire, coupled with the preferential banking of C to belowground sinks, helps to preserve sequestered terrestrial C and prevent it from re-entering the atmosphere. In contrast, California forests appear unable to cope with unmitigated global changes in the climate, switching from substantial C sinks to C sources by at least the mid-21st century. These results highlight the inherent risk of relying on forest C offsets in the absence of management interventions to avoid substantial fire-driven C emissions. On the other hand, since grassland environments, including tree-sparse rangelands, appear more capable of maintaining C sinks in 21st century, such ecosystems should be considered as an alternative C offset to climate-vulnerable forests. The further development of climate-smart approaches in California’s carbon marketplace could serve as an example to offset programs around the world, particularly those expanding into widespread arid and semi-arid regions.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1629, author = {Datta, K. and Baisakh, N. and Oliva, N. and Torrizo, L. and Abrigo, E. and Tan, J. and Rai, M. and Rehana, S. and Al-Babili, S. and Beyer, P. and Potrykus, I. and Datta, S. K.}, title = {Bioengineered 'golden' indica rice cultivars with beta-carotene metabolism in the endosperm with hygromycin and mannose selection systems}, journal = {Plant Biotechnol J}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {81-90}, ISSN = {1467-7644}, DOI = {10.1046/j.1467-7652.2003.00015.x}, year = {2003}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1630, author = {Davidson, Debra}, title = {Gaps in agricultural climate adaptation research}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {433-435}, ISSN = {1758-678X 1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3007}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @inproceedings{RN1631, author = {Davis, James and Crow, Ben and Miles, Julio }, title = {Measuring water collection times in Kenyan informal settlements}, booktitle = {Fifth International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies and Development}, pages = {114–121}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1145/2160673.2160689}, type = {Conference Proceedings} } @inbook{RN1632, author = {Davis-Reddy, C. L. and Vincent, K. and Mambo, J.}, title = {Socio-economic impacts of extreme weather events in Southern Africa}, booktitle = {Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa}, publisher = {CSIR}, address = {Pretoria, South Africa}, chapter = {3}, pages = {30-47}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10204/10148}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1633, author = {Day, Ed and Fankhauser, Sam and Kingsmill, Nick and Costa, Hélia and Mavrogianni, Anna}, title = {Upholding labour productivity under climate change: an assessment of adaptation options}, journal = {Climate Policy}, volume = {19}, number = {3}, pages = {367-385}, keywords = {Heat stress climate change adaptation climate-resilient development heat and labour productivity}, DOI = {10.1080/14693062.2018.1517640}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1517640}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1634, author = {Dayamba, Djibril S. and Ky-Dembele, Catherine and Bayala, Jules and Dorward, Peter and Clarkson, Graham and Sanogo, Diaminatou and Diop Mamadou, Lamine and Traoré, Issa and Diakité, Adama and Nenkam, Andree and Binam, Joachim N. and Ouedraogo, Mathieu and Zougmore, Robert}, title = {Assessment of the use of Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) approach by farmers to manage climate risk in Mali and Senegal}, journal = {Climate Services}, volume = {12}, pages = {27-35}, abstract = {Recently, a new approach to extension and climate information services, namely Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) has been developed. PICSA makes use of historical climate records, participatory decision-making tools and forecasts to help farmers identify and better plan livelihood options that are suited to local climate features and farmers’ own circumstances. This approach was implemented in 2016 in two sites in Senegal and Mali, with 57 and 47 farmers, respectively. At the end of the growing season, these farmers were surveyed to explore their perceptions on the use of the approach. In Senegal and Mali, respectively 97% and 76% of the respondents found the approach ‘very useful’. The approach enabled farmers to make strategic plans long before the season, based on their improved knowledge of local climate features. Moreover, evidence demonstrates that PICSA stimulated farmers to consider and then implement a range of innovations which included: (i) changes in timing of activities such as sowing dates, (ii) implementing soil and water management practices, (iii) selection of crop varieties, (iv) fertiliser management and (v) adaptation of plans for the season (farm size, etc.) to the actual resources available to them. The study also demonstrated the potential of farmer-to-farmer extension in scaling up the approach, which is of great interest especially in the current context of limited extension services in the West African region.}, keywords = {Climate change Climate information services Climate variability Food security Livelihood options West Africa}, ISSN = {2405-8807}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880718300025}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1635, author = {de Graaf, Gertjan and Garibaldi, Luca}, title = {THE VALUE OF AFRICAN FISHERIES}, institution = {Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations}, note = {Copyright - Copyright Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2015}, number = {FIPS/C1093}, month = {2015 2015-08-12}, keywords = {Fish And Fisheries}, url = {https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/value-african-fisheries/docview/1703270253/se-2?accountid=14500}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1636, author = {de Janvry, Alain and Finan, Frederico and Sadoulet, Elisabeth and Vakis, Renos}, title = {Can conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks?}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {79}, number = {2}, pages = {349-373}, keywords = {Child labor Income shocks Safety nets Schooling}, ISSN = {03043878}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.01.013}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1637, author = {de Lima, Cicero Z. and Buzan, Jonathan R. and Moore, Frances C. and Baldos, Uris Lantz C. and Huber, Matthew and Hertel, Thomas W.}, title = {Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {044020}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1638, author = {de Longueville, F. and Ozer, P. and Doumbia, S. and Henry, S.}, title = {Desert dust impacts on human health: an alarming worldwide reality and a need for studies in West Africa}, journal = {Int J Biometeorol}, volume = {57}, number = {1}, pages = {1-19}, keywords = {Africa, Western Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/analysis Desert Climate *Dust/analysis Humans}, ISSN = {0020-7128}, DOI = {10.1007/s00484-012-0541-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-012-0541-y}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1639, author = {Degarege, Abraham and Fennie, Kristopher and Degarege, Dawit and Chennupati, Shasank and Madhivanan, Purnima}, title = {Improving socioeconomic status may reduce the burden of malaria in sub Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {e0211205}, ISSN = {1932-6203}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0211205}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211205 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30677102 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6345497 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211205}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1640, author = {Dell, Melissa and Jones, Benjamin F. and Olken, Benjamin A.}, title = {Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, volume = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {66-95}, DOI = {10.1257/mac.4.3.66}, url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.4.3.66}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1641, author = {Dellink, Rob and Lanzi, Elisa and Chateau, Jean}, title = {The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060}, journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, volume = {72}, number = {2}, pages = {309-363}, abstract = {This paper presents a new detailed global quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of climate change (i.e. climate damages) to 2060. The analysis is based on an assessment of a wide range of impacts: changes in crop yields, loss of land and capital due to sea level rise, changes in fisheries catches, capital damages from hurricanes, labour productivity changes and changes in health care expenditures from diseases and heat stress, changes in tourism flows, and changes in energy demand for cooling and heating. A multi-region, multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to link different impacts until 2060 directly to specific drivers of economic growth, including labour productivity, capital stocks and land supply, as well as assess the indirect effects these impacts have on the rest of the economy, and on the economies of other countries. It uses a novel production function approach to identify which aspects of economic activity are directly affected by climate change. The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains.}, ISSN = {1573-1502}, DOI = {10.1007/s10640-017-0197-5}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0197-5}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1642, author = {Denton, F. and Wilbanks, T.J. and Abeysinghe, A.C. and Burton, I. and Gao, Q. and Lemos, M.C. and Masui, T. and O'Brien, K.L. and Warner, K.}, title = {Climate-Resilient Pathways: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development}, booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}, editor = {Field, C. B. and Barros, V. R. and Dokken, D. J. and Mach, K. J. and Mastrandrea, M. D. and Bilir, T. E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K. L. and Estrada, Y. O. and Genova, R. C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E. S. and Levy, A. N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P. R. and White, L. L.}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA}, chapter = {20}, pages = {1101-1131}, ISBN = {9781107058071}, DOI = {10.1017/cbo9781107415379.025}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415379.025}, year = {2014}, type = {Book Section} } @techreport{RN1643, author = {Department of Economic and Social Affairs}, title = {World Economic and Social Survey 2016: Climate Change Resilience: An Opportunity for Reducing Inequalities}, institution = {United Nations}, number = {ST/ESA/363}, url = {https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/publication/WESS_2016_Report.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1644, author = {Dercon, Stefan and Christiaensen, Luc}, title = {Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, volume = {96}, number = {2}, pages = {159-173}, keywords = {Ethiopia Fertilizer Poverty trap Risk Technology adoption}, ISSN = {03043878}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.08.003}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1645, author = {Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and Müller, Christoph and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Boote, Kenneth J. and Conway, Declan and Ruane, Alex C. and Gerten, Dieter and Jones, James W. and Khabarov, Nikolay and Olin, Stefan and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Schmid, Erwin and Yang, Hong and Rosenzweig, Cynthia}, title = {Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {786-790}, abstract = {Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce plant water use. Research now reveals regional disparities in this effect on crops, with potential implications for food production and water consumption.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2995}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2995}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1646, author = {Deryugina, T. and Hsiang, S.}, title = {The marginal product of climate}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.}, url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w24072.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1647, author = {Descheemaeker, Katrien and Zijlstra, Mink and Masikati, Patricia and Crespo, Olivier and Homann-Kee Tui, Sabine}, title = {Effects of climate change and adaptation on the livestock component of mixed farming systems: A modelling study from semi-arid Zimbabwe}, journal = {Agricultural Systems}, volume = {159}, pages = {282-295}, keywords = {Crop-livestock interactions Forage Soil fertility Vulnerability Resilience Crude protein Metabolizable energy}, ISSN = {0308521X}, DOI = {10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.004}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X16307314}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1648, author = {Descroix, Luc and Guichard, Françoise and Grippa, Manuela and Lambert, Laurent and Panthou, Gérémy and Mahé, Gil and Gal, Laetitia and Dardel, Cécile and Quantin, Guillaume and Kergoat, Laurent and Bouaïta, Yasmin and Hiernaux, Pierre and Vischel, Théo and Pellarin, Thierry and Faty, Bakary and Wilcox, Catherine and Malam Abdou, Moussa and Mamadou, Ibrahim and Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre and Diongue-Niang, Aïda and Ndiaye, Ousmane and Sané, Youssouph and Dacosta, Honoré and Gosset, Marielle and Cassé, Claire and Sultan, Benjamin and Barry, Aliou and Amogu, Okechukwu and Nka Nnomo, Bernadette and Barry, Alseny and Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel}, title = {Evolution of surface hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian strip: An updated review}, journal = {Water}, volume = {10}, number = {6}, ISSN = {2073-4441}, DOI = {10.3390/w10060748}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1649, author = {Deutsch, Curtis A. and Tewksbury, Joshua J. and Tigchelaar, Michelle and Battisti, David S. and Merrill, Scott C. and Huey, Raymond B. and Naylor, Rosamond L.}, title = {Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate}, journal = {Science}, volume = {361}, number = {6405}, pages = {916-919}, ISSN = {0036-8075, 1095-9203}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aat3466}, url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aat3466}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1650, author = {Devonald, Megan and Jones, Nicola and Yadete, Workneh}, title = {‘The first thing that I fear for my future is lack of rain and drought’: climate change and its impacts on adolescent capabilities in low-and middle-income countries}, url = {https://www.gage.odi.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Climate-change-report-for-web-1.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @inbook{RN1651, author = {di Lernia, Savino}, title = {The Archaeology of Rock Art in Northern Africa}, booktitle = {The Oxford Handbook of the Archaeology and Anthropology of Rock Art}, editor = {David, Bruno and McNiven, Ian J. }, publisher = { Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, DOI = {10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190607357.013.17}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1652, author = {di Lernia, Savino and Gallinaro, Marina}, title = {Working in a UNESCO WH Site. Problems and Practices on the Rock Art of Tadrart Akakus (SW Libya, Central Sahara)}, journal = {Journal of African Archaeology}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {159-175}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3213/2191-5784-10198}, url = {https://brill.com/view/journals/jaa/9/2/article-p159_3.xml}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1653, author = {Di Marcantonio, Federica and Kayitakire, François}, title = {Review of Pilot Projects on Index-Based Insurance in Africa: Insights and Lessons Learned}, booktitle = {Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics}, editor = {Tiepolo, M. and Pezzoli, A. and Tarchiani, V.}, series = {Green Energy and Technology}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, chapter = {Chapter 16}, pages = {323-341}, ISBN = {978-3-319-59095-0}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-319-59096-7_16}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1654, author = {Diallo, Ismaïla and Giorgi, Filippo and Deme, Abdoulaye and Tall, Moustapha and Mariotti, Laura and Gaye, Amadou T.}, title = {Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {47}, number = {12}, pages = {3931-3954}, ISSN = {0930-7575 1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-016-3052-4}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3052-4}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1655, author = {Dibley, Arjuna and Wetzer, Thom and Hepburn, Cameron}, title = {National COVID debts: climate change imperils countries’ ability to repay}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {596}, number = {August 2021}, pages = {184-187}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-00871-w}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00871-w}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1656, author = {Diboulo, Eric and Sié, Ali and Rocklöv, Joacim and Niamba, Louis and Yé, Maurice and Bagagnan, Cheik and Sauerborn, Rainer}, title = {Weather and mortality: a 10 year retrospective analysis of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Burkina Faso}, journal = {Global Health Action}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {19078}, ISSN = {1654-9716}, DOI = {10.3402/gha.v5i0.19078}, url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19078}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1657, author = {Dickerson, Sarah and Cannon, Mallory and O’Neill, Brian}, title = {Climate change risks to human development in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of the literature}, journal = {Climate and Development}, pages = {1-19}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2021.1951644}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.1951644}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1658, author = {Dickin, Sarah and Segnestam, Lisa and Sou Dakouré, Mariam}, title = {Women’s vulnerability to climate-related risks to household water security in Centre-East, Burkina Faso}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {443-453}, ISSN = {1756-5529 1756-5537}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2020.1790335}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1659, author = {Dickovick, Tyler J. Wunsch, James S. }, title = {Decentralization: Theoretical, Conceptual, and Analytical Issues}, booktitle = {Decentralization in Africa: The Paradox of State Strength}, editor = {Dickovick, Tyler J. and Wunsch, James S. }, publisher = {Lynne Rienner Publishers}, ISBN = {978-1-62637-053-1}, year = {2014}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1660, author = {Diedhiou, Arona and Bichet, Adeline and Wartenburger, Richard and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Rowell, David P. and Sylla, Mouhamadou B. and Diallo, Ismaila and Todzo, Stella and Touré, N’datchoh E. and Camara, Moctar and Ngatchah, Benjamin Ngounou and Kane, Ndjido A. and Tall, Laure and Affholder, François}, title = {Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {065020}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac3e5}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac3e5}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1661, author = {Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Burke, M.}, title = {Global warming has increased global economic inequality}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {116}, number = {20}, pages = {9808-9813}, keywords = {*cmip5 *climate change attribution *economic inequality *global warming}, ISSN = {1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1816020116}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31010922}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1662, author = {Digna, Reem F. and Mohamed, Y. A. and van der Zaag, P. and Uhlenbrook, S. and Corzo, G. A.}, title = {Nile River Basin modelling for water resources management – a literature review}, journal = {International Journal of River Basin Management}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {39-52}, ISSN = {1571-5124 1814-2060}, DOI = {10.1080/15715124.2016.1228656}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1663, author = {Dimobe, Kangbéni and Ouédraogo, Amadé and Ouédraogo, Korotimi and Goetze, Dethardt and Stein, Katharina and Schmidt, Marco and Ivette Nacoulma, Blandine Marie and Gnoumou, Assan and Traoré, Lassina and Porembski, Stefan and Thiombiano, Adjima}, title = {Climate change reduces the distribution area of the shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa C.F. Gaertn.) in Burkina Faso}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {181}, pages = {104237}, abstract = {Vitellaria paradoxa, the shea tree, an economically important fruit-tree species native to savanna regions is threatened in Burkina Faso due to overexploitation and changing land-use. Furthermore, it remains unclear how climate change will influence its frequency and distribution. We investigated the impact of climate change on the projected spatial distribution of favorable habitats for V. paradoxa. Species distribution modeling techniques implemented in MaxEnt combined with GIS were used to forecast the current and future distribution of V. paradoxa. We selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two global climate models (MPI-ESM-MR and HadGEM2-ES) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. Presence records of the species were collected and linked to bioclimatic and edaphic variables. The most characteristic and least correlated variables were selected for modeling after a collinearity test. Under current climatic conditions, ~51% of the national area was found to be favorable for cultivation and conservation of the species. Under future climate projections, our models predict that favorable habitats of this species will decline by 12% (RCP4.5) and 13% (RCP8.5) by 2070. The predictive modeling approach presented here may be applied to other economically important tree species.}, keywords = {MaxEnt Fruit tree Agroforestry parklands Bioclimatic variables Species distribution modeling Arid climate Non-timber forest products (NTFPs)}, ISSN = {0140-1963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104237}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196320301373}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1664, author = {Dinerstein, E. and Vynne, C. and Sala, E. and Joshi, A. R. and Fernando, S. and Lovejoy, T. E. and Mayorga, J. and Olson, D. and Asner, G. P. and Baillie, J. E. M. and Burgess, N. D. and Burkart, K. and Noss, R. F. and Zhang, Y. P. and Baccini, A. and Birch, T. and Hahn, N. and Joppa, L. N. and Wikramanayake, E.}, title = {A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {eaaw2869}, abstract = {The Global Deal for Nature (GDN) is a time-bound, science-driven plan to save the diversity and abundance of life on Earth. Pairing the GDN and the Paris Climate Agreement would avoid catastrophic climate change, conserve species, and secure essential ecosystem services. New findings give urgency to this union: Less than half of the terrestrial realm is intact, yet conserving all native ecosystems—coupled with energy transition measures—will be required to remain below a 1.5°C rise in average global temperature. The GDN targets 30% of Earth to be formally protected and an additional 20% designated as climate stabilization areas, by 2030, to stay below 1.5°C. We highlight the 67% of terrestrial ecoregions that can meet 30% protection, thereby reducing extinction threats and carbon emissions from natural reservoirs. Freshwater and marine targets included here extend the GDN to all realms and provide a pathway to ensuring a more livable biosphere.}, DOI = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw2869}, url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/4/eaaw2869.abstract}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1665, author = {Dinesh, D. and Zougmore, R.B. and Vervoort, J. and Totin, E. and Thornton, P.K. and Solomon, D. and Shirsath, P.B. and Pede, V.O. and Lopez Noriega, I. and Läderach, P. and Körner, J. and Hegger, D. and Girvetz, E.H. and Friis, A.E. and Driessen, P.P.J. and Campbell, B.M.}, title = {Facilitating Change for Climate-Smart Agriculture through Science-Policy Engagement}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {2616}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082616}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1666, author = {Ding, K. and Gilligan, J. M. and Hornberger, G. M.}, title = {"Avoiding "day-zero": A Testbed for Evaluating Integrated Food-energy-water Management in Cape Town, South Africa}, journal = {IEEE}, pages = {866-877}, DOI = {10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004889}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1667, author = {Diop, A.}, title = {Tombouctou: l’avenir des maçons traditionnels}, booktitle = {World Heritage for Sustainable Development in Africa}, publisher = {United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. UNESCO}, address = {Paris}, pages = {99-103}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1668, author = {Diouf, Ibrahima and Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen and Deme, Abdoulaye and Caminade, Cyril and Morse, Andrew P. and Cisse, Moustapha and Sy, Ibrahima and Dia, Ibrahima and Ermert, Volker and Ndione, Jacques-André and Gaye, Amadou Thierno}, title = {Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {14}, number = {10}, pages = {1119}, keywords = {*Senegal *climate *malaria *model *observations *simulations *stations Climate *Computer Simulation Humans Incidence Malaria/*epidemiology/*transmission Models, Theoretical Reproducibility of Results Seasons Senegal/epidemiology}, ISSN = {1660-4601 1661-7827}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph14101119}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28946705 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5664620/}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1669, author = {Diouf, Ndeye Seynabou and Ouedraogo, Issa and Zougmoré, Robert B. and Ouedraogo, Mathieu and Partey, Samuel Tetteh and Gumucio, Tatiana}, title = {Factors influencing gendered access to climate information services for farming in Senegal}, journal = {Gender, Technology and Development}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, pages = {93-110}, ISSN = {0971-8524}, DOI = {10.1080/09718524.2019.1649790}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09718524.2019.1649790}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1670, author = {Djalante, Riyanti and Holley, Cameron and Thomalla, Frank and Carnegie, Michelle}, title = {Pathways for adaptive and integrated disaster resilience}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {69}, pages = {2105-2135}, keywords = {Adaptive Governance Climate change Disasters Indonesia Integrated disaster resilience Pathways Resilience}, ISSN = {0921-030X}, DOI = {10.1007/s11069-013-0797-5}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1671, author = {Djoudi, Houria and Locatelli, Bruno and Vaast, Chloe and Asher, Kiran and Brockhaus, Maria and Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika}, title = {Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {3}, pages = {248-262}, abstract = {Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a ‘feminization of vulnerability’ and reinforce a ‘victimization’ discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.}, ISSN = {1654-7209}, DOI = {10.1007/s13280-016-0825-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0825-2}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1672, author = {Doblas-Reyes, F. J and Sörensson, A. A and Almazroui, M. and Dosio, A. and Gutowski, W. J. and Haarsma, R. and Hamdi, R. and Hewitson, B. and Kwon, W-T. and Lamptey, B. L. and Maraun, D. and Stephenson, T. S. and Takayabu, I. and Terray, L. and Turner, A. and Zuo, Z. }, title = {Linking Global to Regional Climate Change}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_10.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1673, author = {Dodds, Walter K. and Perkin, Joshuah S. and Gerken, Joseph E.}, title = {Human Impact on Freshwater Ecosystem Services: A Global Perspective}, journal = {Environmental Science & Technology}, volume = {47}, number = {16}, pages = {9061-9068}, ISSN = {0013-936X, 1520-5851}, DOI = {10.1021/es4021052}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1674, author = {Dodman, David and Leck, Hayley and Rusca, Maria and Colenbrander, Sarah}, title = {African Urbanisation and Urbanism: Implications for risk accumulation and reduction}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {26}, pages = {7-15}, ISSN = {22124209}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.06.029}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1675, author = {Dodman, David and Soltesova, Katarina and Satterthwaite, David and Tacoli, Cecilia and Jack, Chris}, title = {Understanding the assessment and reduction of vulnerability to climate change in African cities: A focus on low-income and informal settlements}, url = {https://www.afd.fr/en/understanding-assessment-and-reduction-vulnerability-climate-change-african-cities-focus-low-income-and-informal-settlements}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1617, author = {D'Odorico, Paolo and Davis, Kyle Frankel and Rosa, Lorenzo and Carr, Joel A. and Chiarelli, Davide and Dell'Angelo, Jampel and Gephart, Jessica and MacDonald, Graham K. and Seekell, David A. and Suweis, Samir and Rulli, Maria Cristina}, title = {The global food-energy-water nexus}, journal = {Reviews of Geophysics}, volume = {56}, number = {3}, pages = {456-531}, ISSN = {87551209}, DOI = {10.1029/2017rg000591}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1676, author = {Dolislager, Michael and Reardon, Thomas and Arslan, Aslihan and Fox, Louise and Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda and Sauer, Christine and Tschirley, David L.}, title = {Youth and Adult Agrifood System Employment in Developing Regions: Rural (Peri-urban to Hinterland) vs. Urban}, journal = {The Journal of Development Studies}, volume = {57}, number = {4}, pages = {571-593}, ISSN = {0022-0388 1743-9140}, DOI = {10.1080/00220388.2020.1808198}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1677, author = {Dombrowsky, Ines and Hensengerth, Oliver}, title = {Governing the Water-Energy-Food Nexus Related to Hydropower on Shared Rivers—The Role of Regional Organizations}, journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science}, volume = {6}, number = {153}, keywords = {water-energy-food nexus,Hydropower,Transboundary river basin,Xayaburi,Rusumo Falls,Ruzizi III,regional energy organization,International River Basin Organizations,Regional organization,NEXUS governance}, ISSN = {2296-665X}, DOI = {10.3389/fenvs.2018.00153}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00153}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1678, author = {Domke, M. and Pretzsch, J.}, title = {Knowledge Management on Climate Change Adaptation. Analysis of Information Exchange Processes and Collaboration Networks in Rural Ethiopia}, booktitle = {Climatic and Environmental Challenges: Learning from the Horn of Africa}, publisher = {Centre français des études éthiopiennes}, address = {Addis-Abeba}, ISBN = {9782821873001}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4000/books.cfee.427}, url = {http://books.openedition.org/cfee/427}, year = {2016}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1679, author = {Donat, Markus G. and Angélil, Oliver and Ukkola, Anna M.}, title = {Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world’s humid and water-limited regions}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {065003}, abstract = {Changes in precipitation totals and extremes are among the most relevant consequences of climate change, but in particular regional changes remain uncertain. While aggregating over larger regions reduces the noise in time series and typically shows increases in the intensity of precipitation extremes, it has been argued that this may not be the case in water-limited regions. Here we investigate long-term changes in annual precipitation totals and extremes aggregated over the world’s humid, transitional, and dry regions as defined by their climatological water availability. We use the globally most complete observational datasets suitable for the analysis of daily precipitation extremes, and data from global climate model simulations. We show that precipitation totals and extremes have increased in the humid regions since the mid-20th century. Conversely, despite showing tendencies to increase, no robust changes can be detected in the drier regions, in part due to the large variability of precipitation and sparse observational coverage particularly in the driest regions. Future climate simulations under increased radiative forcing indicate total precipitation increases in more humid regions but no clear changes in the more arid regions, while precipitation extremes are more likely to increase than to decrease on average over both the humid and arid regions of the world. These results highlight the increasing risk of heavy precipitation in most regions of the world, including water-limited regions, with implications for related impacts through flooding risk or soil erosion.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8e}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8e}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1680, author = {Donat, M. G. and Peterson, T. C. and Brunet, M. and King, A. D. and Almazroui, M. and Kolli, R. K. and Boucherf, Djamel and Al-Mulla, Anwar Yousuf and Nour, Abdourahman Youssouf and Aly, Ahmed Attia and Nada, Tamer Ali Ali and Semawi, Muhammad M. and Al Dashti, Hasan Abdullah and Salhab, Tarek G. and El Fadli, Khalid I. and Muftah, Mohamed K. and Dah Eida, Sidaty and Badi, Wafae and Driouech, Fatima and El Rhaz, Khalid and Abubaker, Mohammed J. Y. and Ghulam, Ayman S. and Erayah, Amani Sanhouri and Mansour, Maher Ben and Alabdouli, Waleed O. and Al Dhanhani, Jemie Salem and Al Shekaili, Majed N.}, title = {Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {581-592}, keywords = {climate extremes climate change observations temperature precipitation enso nao climate extremes monitoring changes middle-east f-test indexes 20th-century projections 2nd-half dataset impacts}, ISSN = {08998418}, DOI = {10.1002/joc.3707}, url = {://WOS:000332092900005}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1681, author = {Donat, Markus G. and Sillmann, Jana and Wild, Simon and Alexander, Lisa V. and Lippmann, Tanya and Zwiers, Francis W.}, title = {Consistency of temperature and precipitation extremes across various global gridded in situ and reanalysis datasets}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {27}, number = {13}, pages = {5019-5035}, ISSN = {0894-8755 1520-0442}, DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-13-00405.1}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1682, author = {Doshi, Deepal and Garschagen, Matthias}, title = {Understanding Adaptation Finance Allocation: Which Factors Enable or Constrain Vulnerable Countries to Access Funding?}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, number = {10}, pages = {4308}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su12104308}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/4308}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1683, author = {Dosio, Alessandro}, title = {Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {49}, pages = {493-519}, keywords = {CORDEX-Africa Extreme temperature statistics HWMId Heat Waves Regional Climate Models}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1684, author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Jones, R and Jack, C. and Lennard, C and Nikulin, G. and Hewitson, B.}, title = {What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models.}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, keywords = {Added value CORDEX-Africa GCMs RCMs added value cordex-africa gcms rcms}, ISSN = {0123456789}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-019-04900-3}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1685, author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Jury, Martin W. and Almazroui, Mansour and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Diallo, Ismaila and Engelbrecht, Francois A. and Klutse, Nana A. B. and Lennard, Christopher and Pinto, Izidine and Sylla, Mouhamadou B. and Tamoffo, Alain T.}, title = {Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, abstract = {We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean precipitation are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, global models tend to project a wetter future compared to regional models, especially over the Eastern Sahel, Central and East Africa. However, results for other precipitation characteristics are more consistent. In general, all ensembles project an increase in maximum precipitation intensity during the wet season over all regions and emission scenarios (except the West Sahel for CORE) and a decrease in precipitation frequency (under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) especially over the West Sahel, the Atlas region, southern central Africa, East Africa and southern Africa. Depending on the season, the length of dry spells is projected to increase consistently by all ensembles and for most (if not all) models over southern Africa, the Ethiopian highlands and the Atlas region. Discrepancies exist between global and regional models on the projected change in precipitation characteristics over specific regions and seasons. For instance, over the Eastern Sahel in July–August most global models show an increase in precipitation frequency but regional models project a robust decrease. Global and regional models also project an opposite sign in the change of the length of dry spells. CORE results show a marked drying over the regions affected by the West Africa monsoon throughout the year, accompanied by a decrease in mean precipitation intensity between May and July that is not present in the other ensembles. This enhanced drying may be related to specific physical mechanisms that are better resolved by the higher resolution models and highlights the importance of a process-based evaluation of the mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-021-05859-w}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05859-w}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1686, author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Fischer, Erich M. and Wyser, Klaus}, title = {Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {054006}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab827}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1687, author = {Doswald, N. and Munroe, R. and Roe, D. and Giuliani, A. and Castelli, I. and Stephens, J. and Möller, I. and Spencer, T. and Vira, B. and Reid, H.}, title = {Effectiveness of ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation: review of the evidence-base}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {185-201}, keywords = {adaptation climate change ecosystem management ecosystem services ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation vulnerability}, ISSN = {1756-5529 1756-5537}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2013.867247}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2013.867247 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17565529.2013.867247}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1688, author = {Dottori, Francesco and Szewczyk, Wojciech and Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Zhao, Fang and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Hirabayashi, Yukiko and Bianchi, Alessandra and Mongelli, Ignazio and Frieler, Katja and Betts, Richard A. and Feyen, Luc}, title = {Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {8}, number = {9}, pages = {781-786}, abstract = {River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters1, but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored2. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming)3 and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70–83%, direct flood damage by 160–240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29%. In a 2 °C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts—perhaps through infrastructural investment4—are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1689, author = {Douglas, Ian}, title = {Flooding in African cities, scales of causes, teleconnections, risks, vulnerability and impacts}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {26}, pages = {34-42}, ISSN = {22124209}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.024}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420917302595}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1690, author = {Douville, H. and Raghavan, K. and Renwick, J. and Allan, R. P. and Arias, P. A. and Barlow, M. and Cerezo-Mota, R. and Cherchi, A. and Gan, T. Y. and Gergis, J. and Jiang, D. and Khan, A. and Pokam Mba, W. and Rosenfeld, D. and Tierney, J. E. and Zolina, O. }, title = {Water Cycle Changes}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_08.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1691, author = {Douxchamps, Sabine and Van Wijk, Mark T. and Silvestri, Silvia and Moussa, Abdoulaye S. and Quiros, Carlos and Ndour, Ndèye Yacine B. and Buah, Saaka and Somé, Léopold and Herrero, Mario and Kristjanson, Patricia and Ouedraogo, Mathieu and Thornton, Philip K. and Van Asten, Piet and Zougmoré, Robert and Rufino, Mariana C.}, title = {Linking agricultural adaptation strategies, food security and vulnerability: evidence from West Africa}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {16}, number = {5}, pages = {1305-1317}, ISSN = {1436-3798 1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-015-0838-6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0838-6}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1692, author = {Dowd-Uribe, Brian and Sanon, Moussa and Roncoli, Carla and Orlove, Ben}, title = {Grounding the Nexus: Examining the Integration of Small-Scale Irrigators into a National Food Security Programme in Burkina Faso}, journal = {Water Alternatives}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, ISSN = {1965-0175}, url = {https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/vol11/v11issue2/442-a11-2-9/file}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1693, author = {Dowla, Asif}, title = {Climate change and microfinance}, journal = {BUSINESS STRATEGY & DEVELOPMENT}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, pages = {78-87}, keywords = {adaptation climate change microfinance sustainable development goals}, DOI = {10.1002/bsd2.13}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/bsd2.13}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1694, author = {Du, Lingtong and Zeng, Yijian and Ma, Longlong and Qiao, Chenglong and Wu, Hongyue and Su, Zhongbo and Bao, Gang}, title = {Effects of anthropogenic revegetation on the water and carbon cycles of a desert steppe ecosystem}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {300}, pages = {108339}, abstract = {The anthropogenic revegetation for combating desertification in China has been a long-term strategy that has induced shrub encroachment in desert steppe and regionally notable greening. Although the benefits of reversing desertification, preventing erosion, and providing biomass have been recognized, the effects of anthropogenic revegetation on water and carbon cycles, the critical process of terrestrial ecosystem, are still poorly understood. This study evaluates the effects of anthropogenic revegetation on water and carbon cycles in a typical desert steppe located in Yanchi County, Ningxia Province, Northwest China, by simulating two scenarios of grassland and shrub with the Biome-BGC model. Continuous CO2 and H2O flux measurements from 2016 to 2019 were used to validate the performance of Biome-BGC. Results showed that the anthropogenic revegetation significantly intensified the carbon cycle and increased carbon storages in the ecosystem and transformed the desert steppe ecosystem from a weak carbon source into a strong carbon sink. At the same time, the anthropogenic revegetation critically increased the water consumption of the ecosystem and decreased the soil water storage. The extreme consequence would be that the water resource will exceed the sustainable limit of ecosystems in the context of precipitation as the only water supply. Such undesired outcomes should be given more attention in state and local ecological restoration programs.}, keywords = {terrestrial ecosystems water and carbon cycles anthropogenic revegetation desert steppe, Biome-BGC}, ISSN = {0168-1923}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108339}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192321000228}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1695, author = {du Plessis, Katherine L. and Martin, Rowan O. and Hockey, Philip A. R. and Cunningham, Susan J. and Ridley, Amanda R.}, title = {The costs of keeping cool in a warming world: implications of high temperatures for foraging, thermoregulation and body condition of an arid-zone bird}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {18}, number = {10}, pages = {3063-3070}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02778.x}, abstract = {Abstract Recent mass mortalities of bats, birds and even humans highlight the substantial threats that rising global temperatures pose for endotherms. Although less dramatic, sublethal fitness costs of high temperatures may be considerable and result in changing population demographics. Endothermic animals exposed to high environmental temperatures can adjust their behaviour (e.g. reducing activity) or physiology (e.g. elevating rates of evaporative water loss) to maintain body temperatures within tolerable limits. The fitness consequences of these adjustments, in terms of the ability to balance water and energy budgets and therefore maintain body condition, are poorly known. We investigated the effects of daily maximum temperature on foraging and thermoregulatory behaviour as well as maintenance of body condition in a wild, habituated population of Southern Pied Babblers Turdoides bicolor. These birds inhabit a hot, arid area of southern Africa where they commonly experience environmental temperatures exceeding optimal body temperatures. Repeated measurements of individual behaviour and body mass were taken across days varying in maximum air temperature. Contrary to expectations, foraging effort was unaffected by daily maximum temperature. Foraging efficiency, however, was lower on hotter days and this was reflected in a drop in body mass on hotter days. When maximum air temperatures exceeded 35.5 °C, individuals no longer gained sufficient weight to counter typical overnight weight loss. This reduction in foraging efficiency is likely driven, in part, by a trade-off with the need to engage in heat-dissipation behaviours. When we controlled for temperature, individuals that actively dissipated heat while continuing to forage experienced a dramatic decrease in their foraging efficiency. This study demonstrates the value of investigations of temperature-dependent behaviour in the context of impacts on body condition, and suggests that increasingly high temperatures will have negative implications for the fitness of these arid-zone birds.}, keywords = {body condition body mass climate change daily maximum temperature foraging efficiency foraging effort Southern Pied Babbler temperature-dependent behaviour thermoregulation trade-offs Turdoides bicolor}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02778.x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02778.x}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1696, author = {du Toit, Justin C. O. and van den Berg, Loraine and O'Connor, Tim G.}, title = {Fire effects on vegetation in a grassy dwarf shrubland at a site in the eastern Karoo, South Africa}, journal = {African Journal of Range & Forage Science}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {13-20}, ISSN = {1022-0119}, DOI = {10.2989/10220119.2014.913077}, url = {https://doi.org/10.2989/10220119.2014.913077}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1697, author = {du Toit, Marié J. and Cilliers, Sarel S. and Dallimer, Martin and Goddard, Mark and Guenat, Solène and Cornelius, Susanna F.}, title = {Urban green infrastructure and ecosystem services in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Landscape and Urban Planning}, volume = {180}, pages = {249-261}, keywords = {Green space Challenges Provisioning Regulating Supporting Cultural}, ISSN = {01692046}, DOI = {10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.06.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204618304419}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1698, author = {Duarte, Carlos M. and Losada, Iñigo J. and Hendriks, Iris E. and Mazarrasa, Inés and Marbà, Núria}, title = {The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {3}, number = {11}, pages = {961-968}, abstract = {Marine vegetated habitats occupy a small fraction of the ocean surface, but contribute about 50% of the carbon that is buried in marine sediments. In this Review the potential benefits of conservation, restoration and use of these habitats for coastal protection and climate change mitigation are assessed.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate1970}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1970}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1699, author = {Dube, Kaitano and Chapungu, Lazarus and Fitchett, Jennifer M.}, title = {Meteorological and Climatic Aspects of Cyclone Idai and Kenneth}, booktitle = {Cyclones in Southern Africa: Volume 2: Foundational and Fundamental Topics}, editor = {Nhamo, Godwell and Dube, Kaitano}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, pages = {19-36}, abstract = {The year 2019 was a year of weather extremes that included high-intensity fires, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones that affected various countries across the world. These events had a devastating impact on economies globally. Understanding the meteorological and climatic aspects of these events is the sine qua non for effective disaster management. This chapter examines the meteorological aspects of cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which occurred successively in 2019. The chapter is premised on the analysis of archival weather data, document analysis and satellite image interpretation. Results show that there is a slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones in the basin in general and a significant increase of higher category cyclones of categories 4 and 5, with a decline in lower category cyclones. The cyclones had a direct impact on Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, the Comoros Islands and Zimbabwe, with a devastating impact on the socio-economic and environmental facets of life within the region, setting back the gains that were made in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Given the experiences in 2019, there is a need to revisit and enforce building planning design and construction of more robust infrastructure with the aim of reducing vulnerabilities and reduce losses associated with higher category hurricanes (tropical cyclones). The study also recommends serious investment into seasonal cyclone forecasting through improved modelling, disaster preparedness, communication and management going forward to reduce cyclone-associated losses in the SADC region.}, ISBN = {978-3-030-74262-1}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-030-74262-1_2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74262-1_2}, year = {2021}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1700, author = {Dube, K. and Mearns, K. and Mini, S. and Chapungu, L.}, title = {Tourists’ knowledge and perceptions on the impact of climate change on tourism in Okavango Delta, Botswana’}, journal = {African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {1-18}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1701, author = {Dube, Kaitano and Nhamo, Godwell}, title = {Climate variability, change and potential impacts on tourism: Evidence from the Zambian side of the Victoria Falls}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {84}, pages = {113-123}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing the world today. Its consequences affect many communities and sectors, with the poor particularly vulnerable. One of the sectors that benefit the poor is tourism, and the sector gets impacted by global warming that causes climate variability and change. This study examined the evidence and potential implications of climate variability and change on tourism in the Zambian town of Livingstone. A mixed methods case study design drew on 40 years of historical meteorological data from the Zambia Meteorological Department (1976 to 2016), an online survey of tourists (n = 369), key informant interviews and remote-sensed data. The Geographical Information System (GIS) ArcView 10.5, Question-Pro Text Analysis and Microsoft Excel Toolpak were used to analyse the data. A Mann-Kendall trend test was run on precipitation and temperature data which pointed to a statistical significant change in annual average temperature and no statically significant change in annual average rainfall. However statistical significant changes were reported for some months for precipitation. The research found evidence of climate variability and change in Livingstone, indicated by an increase in temperature, extreme rainfall patterns, a decline in rainfall and a fluctuation in water flow levels at the Victoria Falls. The changes pose a potential threat to wildlife and the Victoria Falls resort and may undermine future tourism operations and activities. It is recommended that Livingstone adopt a new climate calendar, green tourism, that tourism authorities proactively plan for climate change and that further research be conducted on the impact of changes and variables on flora, fauna and the Victoria Falls resort.}, keywords = {Climate change Victoria Falls Livingstone Zambia Tourism sub-Saharan Africa Zambezi River}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.03.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118300996}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1702, author = {Dube, Kaitano and Nhamo, Godwell}, title = {Climate change and potential impacts on tourism: evidence from the Zimbabwean side of the Victoria Falls}, journal = {Environment, Development and Sustainability}, volume = {21}, number = {4}, pages = {2025-2041}, abstract = {Tourism is a crucial development sector that employs thousands of people and contributes to addressing the triple challenge of poverty, inequality and unemployment in previously disadvantaged communities. In Zimbabwe, tourism is a fundamental tool for development that depends on the rich natural resource base to attract international tourists. This paper assesses the evidence of climate variability and change and its potential impact on the global tourist resort of Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. The research made use of over 40 years of meteorological and hydrography data that were supplemented by an online tourist survey that got 369 responses from across the world. Data analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences and Microsoft Excel Analysis ToolPak. Overall, it emerged that, indeed, climate variability and change is taking place. There has been an increase in the maximum and minimum temperature. The largest temperature increase was recorded in October. A slight increase in rainfall was observed, albeit increased incidence of extreme rainfall and drought events. Delays in the onset of the rainfall season were noticeable with a shift from October to November. Extreme hydrological variations were evident in the flow regime of the falls. The paper concludes that the observed climate variability and change trends have potential effects on the tourism industry, particularly as expressed by the responses from the online survey, which favoured high water flow regimes as providing the best view of the falls. The paper recommends improved communication with tourists including a new climate and hydrological calendar for the resort to manage tourists’ expectations in the light of the noted change.}, ISSN = {1573-2975}, DOI = {10.1007/s10668-018-0118-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0118-y}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1703, author = {Dube, K. and Nhamo, G.}, title = {Evidence and impact of climate change on South African national parks. Potential implications for tourism in the Kruger National Park}, journal = {Environmental Development}, volume = {33}, pages = {100485}, abstract = {The study investigates the evidence and impact of climate variability and climate change on the Kruger National Park in South Africa. The mixed methods research design was used as the strategy of inquiry, and both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods were employed. Results show that the climate is changing, as indicated by significant trends in annual average temperatures (P = 0.000; α = 0.05). Rainfall patterns show high inter-annual variability and a declining trend, although this is not statistically significant. Results further indicate that the changing climate has imposed considerable costs on wildlife, the environment and the national budget. Extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and extreme heat in the Kruger National Park have led to the loss of flora and fauna and infrastructure that supports tourism and has disrupted tourists’ activities. The study concludes that there is evidence of climate change and given this, appropriate climate change adaptations and mitigation interventions should be made to ensure the sustainable utilisation of the Kruger National Park in line with the dictates of Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goal 13 on climate change action. The study further recommends a revision of land use planning, retrofitting and redesigning of some of the national park facilities and infrastructure to ensure climate resilience and sustainable tourism. Continued investment into research and innovation in national parks is also recommended to foster the protection of natural heritage.}, keywords = {Kruger national parks South Africa Climate change Tourism}, ISSN = {2211-4645}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2019.100485}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211464519300363}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1704, author = {Dube, Kaitano and Nhamo, Godwell and Chikodzi, David}, title = {Climate change-induced droughts and tourism: Impacts and responses of Western Cape province, South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism}, pages = {100319}, abstract = {Climate change has led to several extreme weather events across the world. One such weather extreme is drought. Drought phenomenon has been increasing in both frequency and intensity globally of late. To this end, there has been growing concern about the impact droughts have and will have on the tourist destinations in sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. In this study, which employs a mixed-methods approach utilising primary, archival and secondary data, we examine the impact of the 2015–2018 drought episodes on the tourism industry in the Western Cape as well as the industry's response. These drought episodes famously led to the Day Zero phenomenon, a situation that could have resulted in taps running dry at some point. The study found that the drought led to a severe decline in tourist arrivals at the major tourist attractions in the Western Cape province as well as a decline in tourist spending and hotel occupancy. This resulted in a loss of potential revenue and jobs. The province had been experiencing a decline in rainfall that drastically affected water supplies; a trend likely to recur in the future. During and after the drought, the tourism industry adopted several measures aimed at augmenting and saving water, thereby easing the sector's water demand. We recommend that the tourism sector and the Western Cape province build on the successes and lessons learnt during the Day Zero campaign to prepare for the future. This would allow the province to address Sustainable Development Goal 6, focusing on water and sanitation as a part of embracing responsible and sustainable tourism. Hence, continuous research, innovation and investment in the water-smart industry is a must for Cape Town and the Western Cape province.}, keywords = {Day zero Drought Cape town Western cape Tourism Climate change}, ISSN = {2213-0780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2020.100319}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213078020300438}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1705, author = {Dube, Thulani and Moyo, Philani and Ncube, Moreblessings and Nyathi, Douglas}, title = {The Impact of Climate Change on Agro-Ecological Based Livelihoods in Africa: A Review}, journal = {Journal of Sustainable Development}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, ISSN = {1913-9071 1913-9063}, DOI = {10.5539/jsd.v9n1p256}, url = {http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/view/52039}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1706, author = {Duchoslav, J.}, title = {Prenatal Temperature Shocks Reduce Cooperation: Evidence from Public Goods Games in Uganda}, journal = {Front Behav Neurosci}, volume = {11}, pages = {249}, keywords = {Africa climate change cooperation fetal origins public goods game temperature shocks}, ISSN = {1662-5153 (Print) 1662-5153}, DOI = {10.3389/fnbeh.2017.00249}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5742612/pdf/fnbeh-11-00249.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1707, author = {Duffy, Maureen}, title = {The “One Water” Approach}, url = {https://www.wateronline.com/doc/the-one-water-approach-0001}, year = {2012}, type = {Manuscript} } @article{RN1708, author = {Dumenu, William Kwadwo and Obeng, Elizabeth Asantewaa}, title = {Climate change and rural communities in Ghana: Social vulnerability, impacts, adaptations and policy implications}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {55}, pages = {208-217}, abstract = {This study assessed social vulnerability level, impacts and adaptation strategies to climate change in rural communities in four ecological zones in Ghana. Primary data were collected through questionnaires and interviews from 196 households in 14 rural communities. Using six demographic, social and economic indicators in assessing social vulnerability to climate change, the Sudan and Guinea Savanna zones were ranked the most vulnerable to climate change with SVI of 0.552 and 0.550, respectively. Social vulnerability factors such as high illiteracy level, heavy dependence on climate sensitive occupation, less diversified sources of income and limited access to climate change information contributed to the high vulnerability level of the zones. Frequently experienced climate change impacts in the four ecological zones were erratic rainfall, reduction in crop yield, prolonged drought and shift in cropping season. Most engaged adaptation strategies included crop diversification, engagement in non-farm secondary jobs, rural–urban migration and increasing farm size. The results highlight the importance of local-level climate change vulnerability assessment and demonstrate the need for local area-specific actions/policies to reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptation in rural communities. The study approach and findings are useful for policymakers in developing countries in identifying avenues to building local communities’ resilience to climate change.}, keywords = {Climate change Ecological zone Social vulnerability Adaptation Impact}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.10.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901115300939}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1709, author = {Duncker, Louiza C}, title = {The Effect of Consumer Expectations and Perceptions Regarding Sanitation on Access to Clean Water}, journal = {Journal of Ethical Urban Living}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {19-36}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9502}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1710, author = {Duncombe, R.}, title = {Digital Technologies for Agricultural and Rural Development in the Global South}, publisher = {CAB International, }, address = {UK}, pages = {160}, year = {2018}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1711, author = {Dunning, Caroline M and Black, Emily and Allan, Richard P}, title = {Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {31}, number = {23}, pages = {9719-9738}, ISSN = {0894-8755}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1712, author = {Durand, B. and Lo Modou, M. and Tran, A. and Ba, A. and Sow, F. and Belkhiria, J. and Fall, A.G. and Bitèye, B. and Grosbois, V. and Chevalier, V.}, title = {Rift Valley fever in northern Senegal : a modelling approach to analyse the processes underlying virus circulation recurrence}, journal = {bioRxiv}, pages = {2019.12.23.886978}, DOI = {10.1101/2019.12.23.886978}, url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/12/23/2019.12.23.886978.full.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1713, author = {Durand, Jean-Louis and Delusca, Kenel and Boote, Ken and Lizaso, Jon and Manderscheid, Remy and Weigel, Hans Johachim and Ruane, Alex C. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Jones, Jim and Ahuja, Laj and Anapalli, Saseendran and Basso, Bruno and Baron, Christian and Bertuzzi, Patrick and Biernath, Christian and Deryng, Delphine and Ewert, Frank and Gaiser, Thomas and Gayler, Sebastian and Heinlein, Florian and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Kim, Soo-Hyung and Müller, Christoph and Nendel, Claas and Olioso, Albert and Priesack, Eckart and Villegas, Julian Ramirez and Ripoche, Dominique and Rötter, Reimund P. and Seidel, Sabine I. and Srivastava, Amit and Tao, Fulu and Timlin, Dennis and Twine, Tracy and Wang, Enli and Webber, Heidi and Zhao, Zhigan}, title = {How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield?}, journal = {European Journal of Agronomy}, volume = {100}, pages = {67-75}, ISSN = {11610301}, DOI = {10.1016/j.eja.2017.01.002}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1161030117300084}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1714, author = {Dzavo, Takunda and Zindove, Titus J. and Dhliwayo, Marshall and Chimonyo, Michael}, title = {Effects of drought on cattle production in sub-tropical environments}, journal = {Tropical Animal Health and Production}, volume = {51}, number = {3}, pages = {669-675}, ISSN = {0049-4747, 1573-7438}, DOI = {10.1007/s11250-018-1741-1}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11250-018-1741-1 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11250-018-1741-1.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1715, author = {Eastin, Joshua}, title = {Climate change and gender equality in developing states}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {107}, pages = {289-305}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.02.021}, url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.02.021}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1716, author = {Ebhuoma, Eromose E.}, title = {A framework for integrating scientific forecasts with indigenous systems of weather forecasting in southern Nigeria}, journal = {Development in Practice}, volume = {30}, number = {4}, pages = {472-484}, ISSN = {0961-4524 1364-9213}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2020.1723494}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1717, author = {Ebi, K. L. and Otmani Del Barrio, M.}, title = {Lessons Learned on Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences Across Low- and Middle-Income Countries}, journal = {Environ Health Perspect}, volume = {125}, number = {6}, pages = {065001}, keywords = {Acclimatization *Adaptation, Physiological China Climate Change/*statistics & numerical data Developing Countries/*statistics & numerical data Health Status Indicators Humans Kenya Philippines Russia Socioeconomic Factors}, ISSN = {1552-9924 (Electronic) 0091-6765 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1289/EHP405}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28632491}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1718, author = {EBRD and AfDB and ADB and EIB and IADB and WB}, title = {Joint report on multilateral development banks’ climate finance}, institution = {World Bank Group}, url = {https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/9234bfc633439d0172f6a6eb8df1b881-0020012021/original/2020-Joint-MDB-report-on-climate-finance-Report-final-web.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1719, author = {Edgar, Graham J. and Stuart-Smith, Rick D. and Willis, Trevor J. and Kininmonth, Stuart and Baker, Susan C. and Banks, Stuart and Barrett, Neville S. and Becerro, Mikel A. and Bernard, Anthony T. F. and Berkhout, Just and Buxton, Colin D. and Campbell, Stuart J. and Cooper, Antonia T. and Davey, Marlene and Edgar, Sophie C. and Försterra, Günter and Galván, David E. and Irigoyen, Alejo J. and Kushner, David J. and Moura, Rodrigo and Parnell, P. Ed and Shears, Nick T. and Soler, German and Strain, Elisabeth M. A. and Thomson, Russell J.}, title = {Global conservation outcomes depend on marine protected areas with five key features}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {506}, number = {7487}, pages = {216-220}, abstract = {Marine protected areas (MPAs) are an important and increasing component of marine conservation strategy, but their effectiveness is variable and debated; now a study has assembled data from a global sample of MPAs and demonstrates that effectiveness depends on five key properties: whether any fishing is allowed, enforcement levels, age, size and degree of isolation.}, ISSN = {1476-4687}, DOI = {10.1038/nature13022}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13022}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1720, author = {Edo, Samson and Osadolor, Nneka Esther and Dading, Isuwa Festus}, title = {Growing external debt and declining export: The concurrent impediments in economic growth of Sub-Saharan African countries}, journal = {International Economics}, volume = {161}, pages = {173-187}, ISSN = {21107017}, DOI = {10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.013}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1721, author = {Egeru, Anthony}, title = {Role of indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation: A case study of the Teso Sub-Region, Eastern Uganda}, journal = {Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {217-224}, ISSN = {0975-1068}, url = {http://nopr.niscair.res.in/bitstream/123456789/13849/1/IJTK%2011%282%29%20217-224.pdf}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1722, author = {Egeru, Anthony}, title = {Climate risk management information, sources and responses in a pastoral region in East Africa}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {11}, pages = {1-14}, keywords = {Early warning Karamoja Process Reactive adaptation}, ISSN = {22120963}, DOI = {10.1016/j.crm.2015.12.001}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2015.12.001}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1723, author = {Egoh, Benis N. and O'Farrell, Patrick J. and Charef, Aymen and Josephine Gurney, Leigh and Koellner, Thomas and Nibam Abi, Henry and Egoh, Mody and Willemen, Louise}, title = {An African account of ecosystem service provision: Use, threats and policy options for sustainable livelihoods}, journal = {Ecosystem Services}, volume = {2}, pages = {71-81}, ISSN = {22120416}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.09.004}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1724, author = {Egondi, Thaddaeus and Kyobutungi, Catherine and Kovats, Sari and Muindi, Kanyiva and Ettarh, Remare and Rocklöv, Joacim}, title = {Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements}, journal = {Global Health Action}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {19065}, ISSN = {1654-9716}, DOI = {10.3402/gha.v5i0.19065}, url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v5i0.19065}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1725, author = {Egondi, T. and Kyobutungi, C. and Rocklov, J.}, title = {Temperature variation and heat wave and cold spell impacts on years of life lost among the urban poor population of Nairobi, Kenya}, journal = {Int J Environ Res Public Health}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {2735-48}, keywords = {Extreme Cold/*adverse effects Extreme Heat/*adverse effects Humans Kenya Life Expectancy Nonlinear Dynamics Socioeconomic Factors Temperature *Urban Population *Weather}, ISSN = {1660-4601}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph120302735}, url = {https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/ijerph/ijerph-12-02735/article_deploy/ijerph-12-02735.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1726, author = {Eitzinger, A and Läderach, P and Quiroga, A and Pantoja, A and Gordon, J}, title = {Future climate scenarios for Uganda's tea growing areas}, institution = {International Center for Tropical Agriculture}, year = {2011}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1727, author = {Ekblom, Anneli and Shoemaker, Anna and Gillson, Lindsey and Lane, Paul and Lindholm, Karl-Johan}, title = {Conservation through Biocultural Heritage—Examples from Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Land}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, abstract = {In this paper, we review the potential of biocultural heritage in biodiversity protection and agricultural innovation in sub-Saharan Africa. We begin by defining the concept of biocultural heritage into four interlinked elements that are revealed through integrated landscape analysis. This concerns the transdisciplinary methods whereby biocultural heritage must be explored, and here we emphasise that reconstructing landscape histories and documenting local heritage values needs to be an integral part of the process. Ecosystem memories relate to the structuring of landscape heterogeneity through such activities as agroforestry and fire management. The positive linkages between living practices, biodiversity and soil nutrients examined here are demonstrative of the concept of ecosystem memories. Landscape memories refer to built or enhanced landscapes linked to specific land-use systems and property rights. Place memories signify practices of protection or use related to a specific place. Customary protection of burial sites and/or abandoned settlements, for example, is a common occurrence across Africa with beneficial outcomes for biodiversity and forest protection. Finally, we discuss stewardship and change. Building on local traditions, inclusivity and equity are essential to promoting the continuation and innovation of practices crucial for local sustainability and biodiversity protection, and also offer new avenues for collaboration in landscape management and conservation.}, keywords = {biocultural heritage sub-Saharan Africa traditional ecological knowledge hotspots sacred forests conservation}, ISSN = {2073-445X}, DOI = {10.3390/land8010005}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1730, author = {Elboshy, Bahaa and Kanae, Shinjiro and Gamaleldin, Mona and Ayad, Hany and Osaragi, Toshihiro and Elbarki, Waleed}, title = {A framework for pluvial flood risk assessment in Alexandria considering the coping capacity}, journal = {Environment Systems and Decisions}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {77-94}, abstract = {Urbanization and climate change are likely to aggravate the flood risk especially in the developing regions where these are also lack of resources. Risk assessment at the local scale can be seen as an important tool to assist the decision makers to identify and prioritize development, preparedness, and emergency. This paper introduces an integrated framework to assess urban pluvial flood risk, taking into consideration the available coping capacity arrangements as the coping capacity is considered to be the main factor to control the risk impact. The presented framework incorporates the pluvial flood inundation model; the building and social vulnerabilities indices; and coping capacity indicators to identify the risk level in the urban areas and to test the different scenarios for the disaster risk reduction measures. The proposed risk assessment framework has been applied to the city of Alexandria, located in northern Egypt, as there is an increase in pluvial floods in the city causing economic and human losses. A risk map for Almontaza district has been prepared to reveal the risk level for each block, this map can be used for the planning purposes. The introduced framework can increase the efficiency of the preparedness and emergency plans; it can also help the planners to direct the available development resources to the priority areas.}, ISSN = {2194-5411}, DOI = {10.1007/s10669-018-9684-7}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-018-9684-7}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @inproceedings{RN1731, author = {Eldeberky Y, Hünicke B }, title = {Vulnerability of the Nile delta to recent and future climate change. }, booktitle = {36th IAHR WORLD CONGRESS}, editor = {Mynett, Arthur}, publisher = {International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering & Research (IAHR)}, volume = {28}, url = {https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/46845372/Final_Paper-with-cover-page-v2.pdf?Expires=1629481542&Signature=WrqAR5y-em1HSXbFAsTYoyCE17w-9faflzbkY9rm6tkr1dfKvtRaTNSN5id1sKY6PlWWFITlCpSDoaHd6BXdHDGFaeft4hHzd6UD7kIp3m1VkSlExxral0kIeKPPauzFVAURXuosqrr0i72hhlDTkcQ7aKjh-MGmM18Xuni4OwSb-BL03ZW4pRwWHcSxsmiGHHuRGfdVILksXV2uwDiRT5X6lCSquq9~H~vW2lmGDBOAS2cKDLbZk7SFlGcZZNbYiXVG94mumniAmKWZe18Dx3CBGVs7FGzajDrjm1LPrLL8AR6CYRp4AT9Zmh~vGIQohCQZGanNBnMLabUXoCUFXg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA}, type = {Conference Proceedings} } @article{RN1732, author = {Elevitch, Craig R. and Mazaroli, D. N. and Ragone, Diane}, title = {Agroforestry Standards for Regenerative Agriculture}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {3337}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093337}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1728, author = {El-Shafei, D. A. and Bolbol, S. A. and Awad Allah, M. B. and Abdelsalam, A. E.}, title = {Exertional heat illness: knowledge and behavior among construction workers}, journal = {Environ Sci Pollut Res Int}, volume = {25}, number = {32}, pages = {32269-32276}, keywords = {Adult Dehydration Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology Hot Temperature Humans Male Occupational Exposure/*statistics & numerical data Occupational Health Workplace Behavior Construction workers Egypt Exertional heat illness Knowledge}, ISSN = {0944-1344}, DOI = {10.1007/s11356-018-3211-8}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1733, author = {Elshirbiny, Hayam and Abrahamse, Wokje}, title = {Public risk perception of climate change in Egypt: a mixed methods study of predictors and implications}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences}, volume = { 10}, pages = {242–254}, ISSN = {2190-6483 2190-6491}, DOI = {10.1007/s13412-020-00617-6}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1729, author = {El-Tarabany, Mahmoud S. and El-Tarabany, Akram A. and Atta, Mostafa A.}, title = {Physiological and lactation responses of Egyptian dairy Baladi goats to natural thermal stress under subtropical environmental conditions}, journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology}, volume = {61}, number = {1}, pages = {61-68}, ISSN = {0020-7128, 1432-1254}, DOI = {10.1007/s00484-016-1191-2}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00484-016-1191-2 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-016-1191-2.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1734, author = {Elum, Zelda A. and Modise, David M. and Marr, Ana}, title = {Farmer’s perception of climate change and responsive strategies in three selected provinces of South Africa}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {16}, pages = {246-257}, keywords = {Perception Climate change Vulnerability Mitigation Adaptation Farmers South Africa}, ISSN = {22120963}, DOI = {10.1016/j.crm.2016.11.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316301061}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1735, author = {EMDAT and CRED}, title = {EM-DAT Drought Disaster Occurances: Africa query}, publisher = {UCLouvain}, url = {www.emdat.be}, year = {2020}, type = {Dataset} } @book{RN1736, author = {Emerton, Lucy}, title = {Valuing the Benefits, Costs and Impacts of Ecosystem-based Adaptation Measures: A sourcebook of methods for decision-making}, publisher = {Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH}, address = {Bonn and Eschborn, Germany}, url = {https://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/EbA-Valuations-Sb_en_online.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1737, author = {Endris, Hussen Seid and Lennard, Christopher and Hewitson, Bruce and Dosio, Alessandro and Nikulin, Grigory and Artan, Guleid A.}, title = {Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {52}, number = {3}, pages = {2029-2053}, abstract = {This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976–2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain, but a weaker ENSO/IOD signal over the southern part of the region. This signal is consistent and robust in all global and regional model simulations. The projected increase in OND rainfall over the eastern horn of Africa might be linked with the mean changes in SST over Indian and Pacific Ocean basins and the associated Walker circulations.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1738, author = {Enenkel, M. and Shrestha, R. M. and Stokes, E and Román, M and Wang, Z. and Espinosa, M. T. M. and Hajzmanova, I. and Ginnetti, J. and Vinck, P.}, title = {Emergencies do not stop at night: Advanced analysis of displacement based on satellite-derived nighttime light observations}, journal = {IBM Journal of Research and Development}, volume = {64}, number = {1/2}, pages = {8:1-8:12}, ISSN = {0018-8646}, DOI = {10.1147/JRD.2019.2954404}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1739, author = {Engdaw, Mastawesha Misganaw and Ballinger, Andrew P. and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Steiner, Andrea K.}, title = {Changes in temperature and heat waves over Africa using observational and reanalysis data sets}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {n/a}, number = {n/a}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7295}, abstract = {Abstract Providing comprehensive regional- and local-scale information on changes observed in the climate system plays a vital role in planning effective and efficient climate change adaptation options, specifically over resource-limited regions. Here, we assess changes in temperature and heat waves over different regions of the African continent, with a focus on spatiotemporal trends and the time of emergence of change in hot extremes from natural variability. We analyse absolute and relative threshold indices. Data sets include temperatures from observations (CRUTS4.03 and BEST) and from three representative state-of-the-art reanalyses (ERA5, MERRA2 and JRA-55) for the common period 1980?2018. Statistically significant warming is observed over all regions of Africa in temperature time series from CRU observations and reanalysis data, although the trend strength varies between data sets. Also, extreme temperatures and heat wave indices from BEST observations and all reanalysis data sets reveal increasing trends over all regions of the African continent. However, there are differences in both trend strength and time evolution of heat wave indices between different reanalysis data sets. Most data sets agree in identifying 2010 as a peak heat year over Northern and Western Africa while Eastern and Southern Africa experienced the highest heat wave occurrence in 2016. Our results clearly reveal that heat wave occurrences have emerged from natural climate variability in Africa. The earliest time of emergence takes place in the Northern Africa region in the early 2000s while in the other African regions emergence over natural variability is found mainly after 2010. This also depends on the respective index metrics, where indices based on more consecutive days show later emergence of heat wave trends. Overall, significant warming and an increase in heat wave occurrence is found in all regions of Africa and has emerged from natural variability in the past one or two decades.}, keywords = {Africa climate change heat waves observations reanalysis temperature extremes time of emergence}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7295}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7295}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1740, author = {Engelbrecht, FA and Adegoke, Jimmy and Bopape, Mary-Jane and Naidoo, Mogesh and Garland, Rebecca and Thatcher, Marcus and McGregor, John and Katzfey, Jack and Werner, Micha and Ichoku, Charles and Gatebe, Charles}, title = {Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, pages = {085004}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1741, author = {Engelbrecht, F. A. and McGregor, J. L. and Engelbrecht, C. J.}, title = {Dynamics of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {29}, number = {7}, pages = {1013-1033}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1742}, abstract = {Abstract The projected climate-change signal in simulations by the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) over southern Africa is presented, with particular emphasis on the projected changes in circulation over the region. Current (1975?2005) and future (2070?2100; A2 scenario) climate simulations are used for this purpose. In the austral winter of the future climate, frontal rain bands are displaced to the south as a result of the subtropical high-pressure belt intensifying to the south of the subcontinent. In spring and autumn, mid- and upper-level highs are simulated to become more prominent over the eastern and central parts of southern Africa. The enhanced subsidence associated with these systems results in generally lower rainfall totals over much of the south-eastern subcontinent. To the north of these highs, enhanced westward moisture advection contributes to increased rainfall totals over northern Mozambique, whilst along the western periphery of the anomalously strong highs, enhanced southward moisture advection results in higher rainfall totals over Namibia, Botswana and the central and western interior of South Africa. In mid-summer, the Indian Ocean High (IOH) is simulated to intensify most over the south-western Indian Ocean (IO). This seemingly results in the more frequent occurrence of the cloud bands that constitute the South Indian Convergence Zone (SICZ) over the south-eastern subcontinent?resulting in generally wetter conditions over this region. Copyright ? 2008 Royal Meteorological Society}, keywords = {anthropogenic forcing climate change variable-resolution global model South Indian convergence zone Indian Ocean High}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1742}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1742}, year = {2009}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1742, author = {England, Matthew I. and Dougill, Andrew J. and Stringer, Lindsay C. and Vincent, Katharine E. and Pardoe, Joanna and Kalaba, Felix K. and Mkwambisi, David D. and Namaganda, Emilinah and Afionis, Stavros}, title = {Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {18}, number = {7}, pages = {2059-2071}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-018-1283-0}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1283-0}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1743, author = {Eniola, Philip Olanrewaju}, title = {Menace and Mitigation of Health and Environmental Hazards of Charcoal Production in Nigeria}, booktitle = {African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation}, editor = {Oguge, Nicholas and Ayal, Desalegn and Adeleke, Lydia and da Silva, Izael}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, pages = {2293-2310}, ISBN = {978-3-030-45106-6}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_238}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_238}, year = {2021}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1744, author = {Enqvist, Johan P. and Ziervogel, Gina}, title = {Water governance and justice in Cape Town: An overview}, journal = {WIREs Water}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {e1354}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1354}, abstract = {Abstract The drought that drew the world's attention to Cape Town in early 2018 was the worst on record, threatening to cut off household taps for 4 million people. Even before the drought, the city's relation to water was complex; South Africa still struggles with the legacy of racial inequality including its implications for water justice. Spatial and economic segregation of people initiated when Europeans first settled in the Cape culminated during the apartheid era 1948?1994. It forcibly moved hundreds of thousands of ?colored? and ?black? Capetonians to inferior housing in low-lying areas prone to flooding and with limited access to water, sanitation, and other services. Post-1994 policies have aimed to promote water justice for all citizens, but municipalities have struggled with implementation especially in rapidly growing informal settlements. During the recent drought, the City of Cape Town ramped up its program for water demand management, including pressure reduction, leak repairs, and public awareness-raising campaigns. However, poor communication and a lack of trust contributed to a near-panic situation at the threat of ?Day Zero? as dams almost ran dry in the first half of 2018. Saved by winter rains, Cape Town is now exploring additional water sources and developing a new Water Strategy. Taken together, the City's experiences demonstrate that sustainable water governance needs to acknowledge the interrelated threats of drought and flooding, and the range of impacts these threats as well as the City's responses have on a population still defined by extreme inequality. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance Science of Water > Water Extremes}, keywords = {drought flooding South Africa water demand management water governance water justice}, ISSN = {2049-1948}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1354}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1354}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1745, author = {Ericksen, Polly J.}, title = {Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, pages = {234-245}, abstract = {This paper outlines a framework for studying the multiple interactions of broadly defined food systems with global environmental change and evaluating the major societal outcomes affected by these interactions: food security, ecosystem services and social welfare. In building the framework the paper explores and synthesizes disparate literature on food systems food security and global environmental change, bridging social science and natural science perspectives. This collected evidence justifies a representation of food systems, which can be used to identify key processes and determinants of food security in a given place or time, particularly the impacts of environmental change. It also enables analysis of the feedbacks from food system outcomes to drivers of environmental and social change, as well as tradeoffs among the food system outcomes themselves. In food systems these tradeoffs are often between different scales or levels of decision-making or management, so solutions to manage them must be context-specific. With sufficient empirical evidence, the framework could be used to build a database of typologies of food system interactions useful for different management or analytical purposes.}, keywords = {Food security Ecosystem services Tradeoffs}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.09.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378007000659}, year = {2008}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1746, author = {Eriksen, Siri and Aldunce, Paulina and Bahinipati, Chandra Sekhar and Martins, Rafael D'Almeida and Molefe, John Isaac and Nhemachena, Charles and O'Brien, Karen and Olorunfemi, Felix and Park, Jacob and Sygna, Linda and Ulsrud, Kirsten}, title = {When not every response to climate change is a good one: Identifying principles for sustainable adaptation}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {7-20}, ISSN = {1756-5529 1756-5537}, DOI = {10.3763/cdev.2010.0060}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1747, author = {Escalera-vázquez, Luis H. and Calderón-cortés, Nancy and Zambrano-gonzález, Luis}, title = {Fish population responses to hydrological variation in a seasonal wetland in southeast México}, journal = {Neotropical Ichthyology}, volume = {15}, number = {June}, pages = {1-10}, keywords = {13 especies de peces an analizar la respuesta de considerando la variación hídrica de de manera diferencial a de vida e identificar diferentes estrategias de historia dry season en el presente estudio en un humedal tropical especies de peces con fish resilience la la variación hidrológica afecta las abundancias de las las especies de peces las poblaciones locales de life history strategies los objetivos fueron rainy season se evaluó la respuesta sian ka}, DOI = {10.1590/1982-0224-20160129}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1748, author = {ESPA Directorate}, title = {Research into Results for the ESPA Directorate. Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme Highlights 2009–2018}, institution = {ESPA Directorate,}, url = {https://www.espa.ac.uk/files/espa/ESPA%20Programme%20Highlights%20Report%202009_2018.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1749, author = {Estevão, Marcello}, title = {Climate-Smart Fiscal Policy Can Foster a Lasting Economic Recovery}, journal = {One Earth}, volume = {3}, number = {3}, pages = {273-276}, ISSN = {2590-3322}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332220304267}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1750, author = {Etim, Ernest and Daramola, Olawande}, title = {The Informal Sector and Economic Growth of South Africa and Nigeria: A Comparative Systematic Review}, journal = {Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, abstract = {The informal sector is an integral part of several sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries and plays a key role in the economic growth of these countries. This article used a comparative systematic review to explore the factors that act as drivers to informality in South Africa (SA) and Nigeria, the challenges that impede the growth dynamics of the informal sector, the dominant subsectors, and policy initiatives targeting informal sector providers. A systematic search of Google Scholar, Scopus, ResearchGate was performed together with secondary data collated from grey literature. Using Boolean string search protocols facilitated the elucidation of research questions (RQs) raised in this study. An inclusion and exclusion criteria became necessary for rigour, comprehensiveness and limitation of publication bias. The data collated from thirty-one (31) primary studies (17 for SA and 14 for Nigeria) revealed that unemployment, income disparity among citizens, excessive tax burdens, excessive bureaucratic hurdles from government, inflationary tendencies, poor corruption control, GDP per capita, and lack of social protection survival tendencies all act as drivers to the informal sector in SA and Nigeria. Several challenges are given for both economies and policy incentives that might help sustain and improve the informal sector in these two countries.}, keywords = {informal economy systematic review economic growth economic development open innovation South Africa Nigeria}, ISSN = {2199-8531}, DOI = {10.3390/joitmc6040134}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1751, author = {Evan, A. T. and Flamant, C. and Gaetani, M. and Guichard, F.}, title = {The past, present and future of African dust}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {531}, number = {7595}, pages = {493-5}, keywords = {Africa Atmosphere/chemistry *Climate Cyclonic Storms Desert Climate Dust/*analysis Ecosystem Feedback Greenhouse Effect Humans Models, Theoretical Rain *Wind}, ISSN = {1476-4687 (Electronic) 0028-0836 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/nature17149}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27008968}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1752, author = {Evans, Michelle and Garchitorena, Andres and Rakotonanahary, Rado and Drake, John and Rajaonarifara, Elinambinina and Ngonghala, Calistus and Roche, Benjamin and Bonds, Matthew and Rakotonirina, Julio}, title = {Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Madagascar}, DOI = {10.1101/2020.07.15.20149195}, year = {2020}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1753, author = {Evariste, Fongnzossie Fedoung and Denis Jean, Sonwa and Victor, Kemeuze and Claudia, Mengelt}, title = {Assessing climate change vulnerability and local adaptation strategies in adjacent communities of the Kribi-Campo coastal ecosystems, South Cameroon}, journal = {Urban Climate}, volume = {24}, pages = {1037-1051}, keywords = {Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Adaptation Kribi-Campo coastal area}, ISSN = {22120955}, DOI = {10.1016/j.uclim.2017.12.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209551730113X}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1754, author = {Fabiyi, Oluseyi Olubunmi and Oloukoi, Joseph}, title = {Indigenous knowledge system and local adaptation strategies to flooding in coastal rural communities of Nigeria}, journal = {Journal of Indigenous Social Development}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, ISSN = {2164-9170}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1755, author = {Failler, P. and Kasisi, R. and Akachuku, C. and Assogbadjo, A. and Boyd, E. and Effiom, E. and Elias, P. and Halmy, M. W. A. and Heubach, K. and Mohamed, A. and Ntshane, C. and Rajoelison, G. and Lambini, C. and Kasangaki, A. and Mahamane, A.}, title = {The IPBES regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services for Africa}, institution = {Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1756, author = {Falchetta, G. and Hammad, A. T. and Shayegh, S.}, title = {Planning universal accessibility to public health care in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A}, volume = {117}, number = {50}, pages = {31760-31769}, keywords = {Africa South of the Sahara Health Planning/*organization & administration Health Policy Hospitals, Public/*organization & administration Humans Policy Making *Public Health Administration *Sustainable Development *Universal Health Care *GIS algorithm *accessibility *inequality *public health care *sub-Saharan Africa}, ISSN = {0027-8424 (Print) 0027-8424}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.2009172117}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1757, author = {Falco, Salvatore Di and Di Falco, Salvatore and Yesuf, Mahmud and Kohlin, Gunnar and Ringler, Claudia}, title = {Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia}, journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, volume = {52}, number = {4}, pages = {457-478}, DOI = {10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1758, author = {Fankhauser, Samuel}, title = {The costs of adaptation}, journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {23-30}, ISSN = {17577780}, DOI = {10.1002/wcc.14}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1759, author = {Fanzo, Jessica and Davis, Claire and McLaren, Rebecca and Choufani, Jowel}, title = {The effect of climate change across food systems: Implications for nutrition outcomes}, journal = {Global Food Security}, volume = {18}, pages = {12-19}, keywords = {Nutrition Climate change Food security Diets Food systems Food supply chain}, ISSN = {22119124}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gfs.2018.06.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912418300063}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1760, author = {FAO}, title = {The State of Food and Agriculture: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security}, institution = {Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations}, url = {www.fao.org/3/a-i6030e.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1761, author = {FAO}, title = {Cash+: FAO’s Approach }, institution = {Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7864e.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN1763, author = {FAO}, title = {Climate change and its impacts on the work and activities of FAO forestry}, publisher = {FAO}, url = {http://foris.fao.org/static/cofo/MW858e.Climate%20Change.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Generic} } @techreport{RN1762, author = {FAO}, title = {The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture: Meeting the sustainable development goals}, institution = {FAO}, number = {9789251305621}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/i9540en/i9540en.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1764, author = {FAO}, title = {The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture}, institution = {FAO }, number = {2412-5474}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/CA3129EN/CA3129EN.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1765, author = {FAO and ECA}, title = {Africa: Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition. Addressing the threat from climate variability and extremes for food security and nutrition}, institution = {Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/CA2710EN/ca2710en.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1766, author = {FAO and IFAD and UNICEF and WFP and WHO}, title = {The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming food systems for affordable healthy diets}, institution = {FAO}, DOI = {10.4060/ca9692en}, url = {https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9692en}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1767, author = {Farrell, Aidan D. and Rhiney, Kevon and Eitzinger, Anton and Umaharan, Pathmanathan}, title = {Climate adaptation in a minor crop species: is the cocoa breeding network prepared for climate change?}, journal = {Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems}, volume = {42}, number = {7}, pages = {812-833}, ISSN = {2168-3565}, DOI = {10.1080/21683565.2018.1448924}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2018.1448924}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1768, author = {Fauset, Sophie and Baker, Timothy R. and Lewis, Simon L. and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Affum-Baffoe, Kofi and Foli, Ernest G. and Hamer, Keith C. and Swaine, Michael D.}, title = {Drought-induced shifts in the floristic and functional composition of tropical forests in Ghana}, journal = {Ecology Letters}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {1120-1129}, abstract = {Abstract The future of tropical forests under global environmental change is uncertain, with biodiversity and carbon stocks at risk if precipitation regimes alter. Here, we assess changes in plant functional composition and biomass in 19 plots from a variety of forest types during two decades of long-term drought in Ghana. We find a consistent increase in dry forest, deciduous, canopy species with intermediate light demand and a concomitant decrease in wet forest, evergreen, sub-canopy and shade-tolerant species. These changes in composition are accompanied by an increase in above-ground biomass. Our results indicate that by altering composition in favour of drought-tolerant species, the biomass stocks of these forests may be more resilient to longer term drought than short-term studies of severe individual droughts suggest.}, keywords = {Biomass climate change dynamics functional types Ghana long-term permanent plot plant traits precipitation species}, ISSN = {1461-023X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01834.x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01834.x}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1769, author = {Fava, F. and Jensen, N. and Sina, J. and Mude, A. and Maher, B. }, title = {Building Financial Resilience in Pastoral Communities in Africa}, institution = {The Financial Protection Forum and Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (DRFIP) and World Bank Group Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery}, url = {https://www.financialprotectionforum.org/publication/building-financial-resilience-in-pastoral-communities-in-africa}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1770, author = {Faye, Babacar and Webber, Heidi and Naab, Jesse B. and MacCarthy, Dilys S. and Adam, Myriam and Ewert, Frank and Lamers, John P. A. and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Ruane, Alex and Gessner, Ursula and Hoogenboom, Gerrit and Boote, Ken and Shelia, Vakhtang and Saeed, Fahad and Wisser, Dominik and Hadir, Sofia and Laux, Patrick and Gaiser, Thomas}, title = {Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {034014}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40}, url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1771, author = {Feary, S. and Brown, S. and Marshall, D. and Lilley, I. and McKinnon, R. and Verschuuren, B. and Wild, R.}, title = {Earth’s cultural heritage}, publisher = {ANU Press}, address = {Canberra, Australia }, series = {Protected Area Governance and Management}, ISBN = {9781925021691}, year = {2016}, type = {Book} } @article{RN1772, author = {Fedele, Giacomo and Donatti, Camila I. and Harvey, Celia A. and Hannah, Lee and Hole, David G.}, title = {Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {101}, pages = {116-125}, keywords = {Climate change adaptation Ecosystem services Land-use changes Social-ecological systems Transformation}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901119305337}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1773, author = {Fenton, Adrian and Paavola, Jouni and Tallontire, Anne}, title = {Microfinance and climate change adaptation: An overview of the current literature}, journal = {Enterprise Development and Microfinance}, volume = {26}, pages = {262-273}, DOI = {10.3362/1755-1986.2015.023}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1774, author = {Fenton, Adrian and Wright, Helena and Afionis, Stavros and Paavola, Jouni and Huq, Saleemul}, title = {Debt relief and financing climate change action}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {4}, number = {8}, pages = {650-653}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2303}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2303}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1775, author = {Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro and Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel and Luz, Ana C. and Cabeza, Mar and Pyhälä, Aili and Reyes-García, Victoria}, title = {Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {31}, pages = {272-284}, keywords = {Biocultural conservation Bolivian Amazonia Change perceptions generational amnesia Shifting baseline syndrome Tsimane’}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.001}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015000187}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1776, author = {Ferrão, João Luís and Mendes, Jorge M. and Painho, Marco and Zacarias, Sara}, title = {Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique}, journal = {Malaria Journal}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {212}, ISSN = {1475-2875}, DOI = {10.1186/s12936-017-1866-0}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-1866-0}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1777, author = {Fieldman, Glenn}, title = {Neoliberalism, the production of vulnerability and the hobbled state: Systemic barriers to climate adaptation}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {3}, number = {2}, pages = {159-174}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2011.582278}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2011.582278}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1778, author = {Filahi, S and Tanarhte, M and Mouhir, L and El Morhit, M and Tramblay, Yves}, title = {Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitations extremes in Morocco}, journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology}, volume = {124}, number = {3-4}, pages = {959-972}, ISSN = {0177-798X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1472-4}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1779, author = {Filahi, Said and Tramblay, Yves and Mouhir, Latifa and Diaconescu, Emilia Paula}, title = {Projected changes in temperature and precipitation indices in Morocco from high-resolution regional climate models}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {37}, number = {14}, pages = {4846-4863}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5127}, abstract = {ABSTRACT The climate of Morocco is characterized by a strong spatial and inter-annual variability. This study provides an evaluation of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations of precipitation and temperature over Morocco and future projections based on two emission scenarios. The evaluation of the RCM ensemble over the historical period is performed with a network of 20 weather stations, using Taylor and Portrait diagrams. The results show that the four simulations considered (CLM, CNRM, KNMI and IPSL) are generally able to simulate climate indices and no model is performing significantly better. This ensemble of RCM simulations captures the precipitation and temperature spatiotemporal patterns in the evaluation and historical runs. Climate change scenarios are presented with the goal to identify spatial patterns of change over Morocco, to provide information for climate policy and adaptation. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are considered for two time horizons, 2036?2065 and 2066?2095. A large increase in temperature is observed by the end of the century in particular for the RCP8.5 scenario over the Southeast regions. The minimum temperature is expected to increase more than maximum temperature in most parts of Morocco, with the exception of the Eastern regions. The different RCMs show a strong agreement towards similar changes for most temperature-based indices. The climate change signal is less homogeneous in the different simulations for most of the precipitation indices. Nevertheless, there is a clear decrease of precipitation totals in the different simulations, following a north to south gradient. However, for heavy rainfall events, there are strong uncertainties in projections and the four RCM simulations disagree about the future changes.}, keywords = {Morocco climate change temperature precipitation RCM CORDEX}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5127}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5127}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1780, author = {Finney, Declan L. and Marsham, John H. and Rowell, David P. and Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Tucker, Simon O. and Stratton, Rachel A. and Jackson, Lawrence S.}, title = {Effects of Explicit Convection on Future Projections of Mesoscale Circulations, Rainfall, and Rainfall Extremes over Eastern Africa}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {33}, number = {7}, pages = {2701-2718}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0328.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/7/jcli-d-19-0328.1.xml}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1781, author = {Fiorella, K. J. and Desai, P. and Miller, J. D. and Okeyo, N. O. and Young, S. L.}, title = {A review of transactional sex for natural resources: Under-researched, overstated, or unique to fishing economies?}, journal = {Glob Public Health}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {1803-1814}, keywords = {Fish-for-sex HIV risk climate change environmental change resource availability}, ISSN = {1744-1692}, DOI = {10.1080/17441692.2019.1625941}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17441692.2019.1625941}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1782, author = {Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.}, title = {Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {986-991}, abstract = {It has been predicted, by theory and models, that heavy precipitation will increase with climate change and this is now being seen in observations. Emergence of signals such as this will enable testing of predictions, which should increase confidence in them.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3110}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1783, author = {Fischer, E. M. and Oleson, K. W. and Lawrence, D. M.}, title = {Contrasting urban and rural heat stress responses to climate change}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050576}, abstract = {Hot temperatures in combination with high humidity cause human discomfort and may increase morbidity and mortality. A global climate model with an embedded urban model is used to explore the urban-rural contrast in the wet-bulb globe temperature, a heat stress index accounting for temperature and humidity. Wet-bulb globe temperatures are calculated at each model time step to resolve the heat stress diurnal cycle. The model simulates substantially higher heat stress in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas. Urban humidity deficit only weakly offsets the enhanced heat stress due to the large night-time urban heat island. The urban-rural contrast in heat stress is most pronounced at night and over mid-latitudes and subtropics. During heatwaves, the urban heat stress amplification is particularly pronounced. Heat stress strongly increases with doubled CO2concentrations over both urban and rural surfaces. The tropics experience the greatest increase in number of high-heat-stress nights, despite a relatively weak ?2°C warming. Given the lack of a distinct annual cycle and high relative humidity, the modest tropical warming leads to exceedance of the present-day record levels during more than half of the year in tropical regions, where adaptive capacity is often low. While the absolute urban and rural heat stress response to 2 ? CO2 is similar, the occurrence of nights with extremely high heat stress increases more in cities than surrounding rural areas.}, keywords = {climate change climate extreme heat stress heatwave urban heat island}, ISSN = {0094-8276}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050576}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050576}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1784, author = {Fisher, Monica and Abate, Tsedeke and Lunduka, Rodney W. and Asnake, Woinishet and Alemayehu, Yoseph and Madulu, Ruth B.}, title = {Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {133}, number = {2}, pages = {283-299}, abstract = {In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), “maize is life,” due to its importance to food security and economic wellbeing. Around 40 % of Africa’s maize-growing area faces occasional drought stress, resulting in yield losses of 10–25 %. Around 25 % of the maize crop suffers frequent drought, with losses of up to half the harvest. To reduce vulnerability and improve food security, the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project has made releases of 160 drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties between 2007 and 2013. These have been tested in experimental and farmers’ fields, and disseminated to farmers in 13 African countries through national agricultural research systems and private seed companies. Yields of the new varieties are superior to those of currently available commercial maize varieties under both stress and optimum growing conditions. Although the benefits of DT maize for African farmers have been repeatedly predicted, realization of those benefits depends on farmer uptake, which has received limited empirical study. We use new plot-level data from surveys of 3,700 farm households in six countries (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to measure DT maize adoption rates and their determinants. The data reveal considerable inter-country variation in farmer uptake of DT maize, from 9 % of maize plots in Zimbabwe to 61 % in Malawi. The major barriers to adoption include unavailability of improved seed, inadequate information, lack of resources, high seed price, and perceived attributes of different varieties. Based on the results, we recommend that seed companies and agro-dealers ensure adequate supply of DT maize seed in local markets and sell seed in affordable micro-packs (1 or 2 kg). Furthermore, the DTMA project and partners should ramp up promotional efforts to ensure widespread awareness and understanding of the benefits of the new DT maize varieties.}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-015-1459-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1459-2}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1785, author = {Fisher-Jeffes, Lloyd and Carden, Kirsty and Armitage, Neil }, title = {A water sensitive urban design framework for South Africa}, journal = {Town and Regional Planning}, volume = {71}, pages = {1-10}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp71i1.1}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1786, author = {Fitchett, Jennifer M}, title = {Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean}, journal = {South African Journal of Science}, volume = {114}, number = {11-12}, pages = {1-6}, ISSN = {0038-2353}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2018/4426}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1787, author = {Fitchett, Jennifer M. and Grant, Bronwyn and Hoogendoorn, Gijsbert}, title = {Climate change threats to two low-lying South African coastal towns: Risks and perceptions}, journal = {South African Journal of Science}, volume = {112}, number = {n.5-6}, pages = {1-9}, ISSN = {0038-2353}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2016/20150262 }, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1788, author = {Fjelde, Hanne and von Uexkull, Nina}, title = {Climate triggers: Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Political Geography}, volume = {31}, number = {7}, pages = {444-453}, keywords = {Climate change Armed conflict Communal conflict Rainfall Sub-Saharan Africa Environmental security}, ISSN = {09626298}, DOI = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.08.004}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629812001072}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1789, author = {Flatø, Martin and Muttarak, Raya and Pelser, André}, title = {Women, Weather, and Woes: The Triangular Dynamics of Female-Headed Households, Economic Vulnerability, and Climate Variability in South Africa}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {90}, pages = {41-62}, keywords = {climate variability economic vulnerability female-headed household poverty South Africa}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.015}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X16304430}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1790, author = {Fleifel, Eliana and Martin, Jodi and Khalid, Affiah }, title = {Gender Specific Vulnerabilities to Water Insecurity}, publisher = {University of Waterloo}, url = {https://ic-sd.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/eliana-fleifel.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Electronic Article} } @inbook{RN1791, author = {Fleisher, David and Timlin, Dennis and Reddy, K Raja and Reddy, Vangimalla R and Yang, Yang and Kim, Soo-Hyung}, title = {Effects of CO2 and temperature on crops: Lessons from SPAR growth chambers}, booktitle = {Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Impacts, Adaptation, And Mitigation}, editor = {Hillel, Daniel and Rosenzweig, Cynthia}, publisher = {Imperial College Press}, address = {Singapore}, volume = {1}, pages = {55-86}, DOI = {doi.org/10.2134/advagricsystmodel7.2014.0018.5}, year = {2010}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1792, author = {Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne and Funge-Smith, Simon and McIntyre, Peter B.}, title = {Global hidden harvest of freshwater fish revealed by household surveys}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {115}, number = {29}, pages = {7623}, abstract = {Experts have long believed that fish catches from rivers and lakes are underreported, which leads to lack of appreciation for their contribution to global food security. Rather than focusing on landing data, we backcalculated harvests using surveys of household consumption of freshwater fish. Data from 548,000 households across 42 countries reveal that freshwater catches are likely to be ∼65% higher than officially reported. These hidden harvests are concentrated in low-income countries where they represent the equivalent of the total annual animal protein consumption of 36.9 million people. Long-term underreporting of inland fisheries masks their critical role in feeding the world’s poor and complicates using catch statistics to evaluate the impact of overharvest and ecosystem degradation.Consumption of wild-caught freshwater fish is concentrated in low-income countries, where it makes a critical contribution to food security and livelihoods. Underestimation of inland harvests in official statistics has long been suspected due to unmonitored subsistence fisheries. To overcome the lack of data from extensive small-scale harvests, we used household consumption surveys to estimate freshwater fish catches in 42 low- and middle-income countries between 1997 and 2014. After accounting for trade and aquaculture, these countries collectively consumed 3.6 MT (CI, 1.5–5.8) more wild-caught freshwater fish than officially reported, reflecting a net underreporting of 64.8% (CI, 27.1–103.9%). Individual countries were more likely to underestimate (n = 31) than overestimate (n = 11) catches, despite conservative assumptions in our calculations. Extrapolating our findings suggests that the global inland catch reported as 10.3 MT in 2008 was more likely 16.6 MT (CI, 2.3–30.9), which accords with recent independent predictions for rivers and lakes. In human terms, these hidden harvests are equivalent to the total animal protein consumption of 36.9 (CI, 30.8–43.4) million people, including many who rely upon wild fish to achieve even minimal protein intake. The widespread underreporting uncovered by household consumption surveys indicates that inland fisheries contribute far more to global food security than has been recognized previously. Our findings also amplify concerns about the sustainability of intensive fishery exploitation as degradation of rivers, lakes, and wetlands continues apace.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1721097115}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/115/29/7623.abstract}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1793, author = {Fonta, William M. and Ayuk, Elias T. and van Huysen, Tiff}, title = {Africa and the Green Climate Fund: current challenges and future opportunities}, journal = {Climate Policy}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {1210-1225}, ISSN = {1469-3062}, DOI = {10.1080/14693062.2018.1459447}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1459447}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1794, author = {Fontaine, Bernard and Janicot, Serge and Monerie, Paul-Arthur}, title = {Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, volume = {118}, number = {15}, pages = {8536-8552}, keywords = {climate change heat waves african monsoon daily climate extremes atlantic oscillation west-africa precipitation reanalysis variability database}, ISSN = {2169897X}, DOI = {10.1002/jgrd.50667}, url = {://WOS:000324032900029}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1795, author = {Food Security Information Network (FSIN)}, title = {Global Report on Food Crises}, institution = {World Food Programme}, url = {https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/publication/global-report-food-crises-2019_en}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1796, author = {Foran, Tira and Butler, James R. A. and Williams, Liana J. and Wanjura, Wolf J. and Hall, Andy and Carter, Lucy and Carberry, Peter S.}, title = {Taking Complexity in Food Systems Seriously: An Interdisciplinary Analysis}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {61}, pages = {85-101}, abstract = {Summary Motivated by donor interest in innovative thinking on food security, we conducted an interdisciplinary, triangulation analysis of four divergent conceptual frameworks, each relevant to diagnosing food insecurity in developing countries. We found notable tensions as well as synergistic interactions between agroecology, agricultural innovation systems, social–ecological systems, and political ecology. Cross-framework interactions enhance our understanding of how sectoral and macro-economic development strategies impact on livelihoods, availability, and access. Re-invigorated, more profound dialog between divergent conceptual frameworks enables diagnosis of complex food insecurity problems, and context-specific interventions and innovations. Informed use of divergent approaches constitutes a new ambition for research and practice.}, keywords = {food security innovation interdisciplinary analysis dialog sustainable intensification Africa}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.03.023}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X14000965}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1797, author = {Ford, James D. and Berrang-Ford, Lea and Bunce, Anna and McKay, Courtney and Irwin, Maya and Pearce, Tristan}, title = {The status of climate change adaptation in Africa and Asia}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {801-814}, ISSN = {1436-3798 1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-014-0648-2}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1798, author = {Ford, James D. and Cameron, Laura and Rubis, Jennifer and Maillet, Michelle and Nakashima, Douglas and Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo and Pearce, Tristan}, title = {Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {349-353}, abstract = {The IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change, forming the interface between science, policy and global politics. Indigenous issues have been under-represented in previous IPCC assessments. In this Perspective, we analyse how indigenous content is covered and framed in the Working Group II (WGII) portion of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). We find that although there is reference to indigenous content in WGII, which increased from the Fourth Assessment Report, the coverage is general in scope and limited in length, there is little critical engagement with indigenous knowledge systems, and the historical and contextual complexities of indigenous experiences are largely overlooked. The development of culturally relevant and appropriate adaptation policies requires more robust, nuanced and appropriate inclusion and framing of indigenous issues in future assessment reports, and we outline how this can be achieved.}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2954}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1799, author = {Fore, Henrietta H. and Dongyu, Qu and Beasley, David M. and Ghebreyesus, Tedros A.}, title = {Child malnutrition and COVID-19: the time to act is now}, journal = {The Lancet}, volume = {396}, number = {10250}, pages = {517-518}, ISSN = {0140-6736}, DOI = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31648-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31648-2}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1800, author = {Forsyth, Greg and Le Maitre, David and van den Dool, Riaan and Walls, Richard and Pharoah, Robyn and Fortune, Gillian}, title = {The Knysna fires of 2017: learning from this disaster}, institution = {CSIR, Stellenbosch University & Santam Insurance}, url = {https://cisp.cachefly.net/assets/articles/attachments/78574_the_knysna_fires_of_2017_learnings_from_the_disaster.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1801, author = {Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C. and Vondou, Derbetini A. and Pokam, Wilfried M. and Djomou, Zéphirin Yepdo and Diallo, Ismaïla and Haensler, Andreas and Tchotchou, Lucie A. Djiotang and Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H. and Gaye, Amadou T. and Tchawoua, Clément}, title = {On the added value of the regional climate model REMO in the assessment of climate change signal over Central Africa}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {49}, number = {11-12}, pages = {3813-3838}, ISSN = {0930-7575 1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-017-3547-7}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3547-7}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1802, author = {Frame, Bob and Lawrence, Judy and Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle and Reisinger, Andy and Daigneault, Adam}, title = {Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {21}, pages = {39-51}, keywords = {Scenarios Socio-economic Adaptation Mitigation Global National}, ISSN = {2212-0963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2018.05.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318300469}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1803, author = {Frame, Dave and Joshi, Manoj and Hawkins, Ed and Harrington, Luke J. and de Roiste, Mairead}, title = {Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {7}, number = {6}, pages = {407-411}, abstract = {The signal to noise ratio of temperature change can be used to determine exposure to unusual, unfamiliar and unknown climates. For large groups of the world’s population, mitigation can delay the onset of unfamiliar or unknown climates by several decades.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3297}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1804, author = {Frank, Stefan and Gusti, Mykola and Havlík, Petr and Lauri, Pekka and DiFulvio, Fulvio and Forsell, Nicklas and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Krisztin, Tamás and Palazzo, Amanda and Valin, Hugo}, title = {Land-based climate change mitigation potentials within the agenda for sustainable development}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {024006}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/abc58a}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc58a}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1805, author = {Franke, James A. and Müller, Christoph and Elliott, Joshua and Ruane, Alex C. and Jägermeyr, Jonas and Balkovic, Juraj and Ciais, Philippe and Dury, Marie and Falloon, Pete D. and Folberth, Christian and François, Louis and Hank, Tobias and Hoffmann, Munir and Izaurralde, R. Cesar and Jacquemin, Ingrid and Jones, Curtis and Khabarov, Nikolay and Koch, Marian and Li, Michelle and Liu, Wenfeng and Olin, Stefan and Phillips, Meridel and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Reddy, Ashwan and Wang, Xuhui and Williams, Karina and Zabel, Florian and Moyer, Elisabeth J.}, title = {The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)}, journal = {Geoscientific Model Development}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {2315-2336}, ISSN = {1991-9603}, DOI = {10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020}, url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/2315/2020/}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1806, author = {Franke, James A. and Müller, Christoph and Minoli, Sara and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and Gardner, Charles and Hank, Tobias and Izaurralde, R. Cesar and Jägermeyr, Jonas and Jones, Curtis D. and Liu, Wenfeng and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Ruane, Alex C. and Stephens, Haynes and Zabel, Florian and Moyer, Elisabeth J.}, title = {Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, abstract = {Abstract Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global ?breadbaskets?. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.}, keywords = {adaptation AgMIP climate change crop modeling GGCMI}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15868}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15868}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1807, author = {Free, Christopher M. and Mangin, Tracey and Molinos, Jorge García and Ojea, Elena and Burden, Merrick and Costello, Christopher and Gaines, Steven D.}, title = {Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {e0224347}, abstract = {Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60–65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23–50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing–and achieving the benefits of–climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0224347}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1808, author = {Frihy, Omran and Moufaddal, Wahid and Deabes, Essam and Helmy, Essam El Din}, title = {Economic evaluation of using marine dredged material for erosion control along the northeast coast of the Nile Delta, Egypt}, journal = {Arabian Journal of Geosciences}, volume = {9}, number = {14}, pages = {637}, abstract = {The present study is the first attempt in Egypt to assess feasibility of using of dredging material from Damietta Harbor in the northwestern Nile Delta for erosion control. The study also provides an economic evaluation for the shoreline management alternatives selected to mitigate for the effects of coastal erosion at two pilot eroding areas (namely, A and B) located near the Damietta Harbor. Results of compatibility analysis reveal that the dredging material is fairly compatible with the native sand of the nearby eroding beaches. In addition to soft nourishment by dredged sand, other types of coastal engineering measures which are often used in erosion management area were also evaluated as alternatives for erosion control and mitigation solution. Economic feasibility assessment by means of cost-benefit analysis of direct and indirect items has been carried out to facilitate comparison between these alternatives. Analysis of alternatives has been also supported by other criteria to select the cost-effective and environmentally acceptable option to protect the eroding pilot areas. These criteria include the high total cost paid for maintenance of the Damietta Harbor channel with no use, anticipated impacts on the littoral system, sustainability, future plans for protection of the existing coastlines, and lessons learned from previous shore protection works in the Nile Delta. The final selection of the best viable alternative indicates that the procedure of beach nourishment is the most appropriate form for protection area A, while a combination of groins and sand nourishment is more relevant for area B. In any case, material dredged from the navigation approach of the Damietta Harbor should be utilized as a borrow material in the nourishment schemes and excluding use of the terrestrial sources.}, ISSN = {1866-7538}, DOI = {10.1007/s12517-016-2660-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2660-y}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1809, author = {Frölicher, Thomas L. and Fischer, Erich M. and Gruber, Nicolas}, title = {Marine heatwaves under global warming}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {560}, number = {7718}, pages = {360-364}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3–11 and fisheries12–14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.}, ISSN = {1476-4687}, DOI = {10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1810, author = {Fuller, Trevon L. and Sesink Clee, Paul R. and Njabo, Kevin Y. and Tróchez, Anthony and Morgan, Katy and Meñe, Demetrio Bocuma and Anthony, Nicola M. and Gonder, Mary Katherine and Allen, Walter R. and Hanna, Rachid and Smith, Thomas B.}, title = {Climate warming causes declines in crop yields and lowers school attendance rates in Central Africa}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {610-611}, pages = {503-510}, abstract = {Although a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8°C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R2=0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R2=0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2°C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education.}, keywords = {Cameroon Central Africa Education Plantain Representative concentration pathways}, ISSN = {0048-9697}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.041}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717320399}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1811, author = {Funge-Smith, Simon and Bennett, Abigail}, title = {A fresh look at inland fisheries and their role in food security and livelihoods}, journal = {Fish and Fisheries}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {1176-1195}, abstract = {Abstract The role of inland fisheries in livelihoods, food security and sustainable development is often overshadowed by the higher profile interest in ocean issues. Whilst inland fisheries' catch and contribution to global nutrition, food security and the economy, are less than that of marine fisheries, global-level comparisons of fish production obscure considerable livelihood impacts in certain countries and sub-national areas. To highlight these contributions, this paper synthesizes recent data and innovative approaches for assessing such livelihood contributions and their importance in countries with limited access to ocean resources and aquaculture. Inland fisheries are crucial for many socially, economically and nutritionally vulnerable groups of people around the world, but the challenges in monitoring inland fisheries preclude a complete understanding of the magnitude of their contributions. This situation is rapidly improving with increasing recognition of inland fisheries in development discourses, which has also encouraged research to enhance knowledge on the importance of inland fisheries. We review this work, including collated information published in a recent Food and Agriculture Organization report, to provide an up to date characterization of the state of knowledge on the role of inland fisheries.}, keywords = {economic value global catch inland fisheries livelihoods nutrition}, ISSN = {1467-2960}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12403}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12403}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1812, author = {Funk, Chris and Davenport, Frank and Harrison, Laura and Magadzire, Tamuka and Galu, Gideon and Artan, Guleid A. and Shukla, Shraddhanand and Korecha, Diriba and Indeje, Matayo and Pomposi, Catherine}, title = {18. Anthropogenic enhancement of moderate-to-strong El Niño events likely contributed to drought and poor harvests in southern Africa during 2016}, journal = {Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc}, volume = {99}, pages = {S91-S96}, DOI = {10.1175/bams-d-17-0112.1}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1813, author = {Funk, C. and Galu, G. and Massawa, E. and McCormick, S. and Omondi, P. and Sebina, E. and Shitote, C. and White, L.}, title = {Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation Assessment for East Africa: Summary for Policy Makers}, institution = {USAID}, url = {https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_USAID-PREPARED-TetraTech_Vulnerability-Impacts-Adaptation-Assessment-East-Africa-Water.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1814, author = {Funk, Chris and Harrison, Laura and Shukla, Shraddhanand and Pomposi, Catherine and Galu, Gideon and Korecha, Diriba and Husak, Gregory and Magadzire, Tamuka and Davenport, Frank and Hillbruner, Chris and Eilerts, Gary and Zaitchik, Benjamin and Verdin, James}, title = {Examining the role of unusually warm Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperatures in recent African droughts}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, volume = {144}, number = {S1}, pages = {360-383}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3266}, abstract = {Southern Africa (SA) and eastern Africa (EA) experienced a sequence of severe droughts in December?February (SA DJF) 2015?2016, October?December (EA OND) 2016 and March?April?May 2017 (EA MAM). This sequence contributed to severe food insecurity. While climate variability in these regions is very complex, the goal of this study is to analyse the role played by unusually warm Indo?Pacific SSTs, where unusual is defined as a 1-in-6 year event. We use observed sea-surface temperatures (SST) and satellite?gauge rainfall observations, a 20-member ensemble of Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 simulations (CAM5), and a 40-member ensemble of climate change simulations from the Community Earth Systems Model version 1 (CESM1) Large Ensemble Community Project (LENS) to explore climate conditions associated with warm events identified based on eastern and western Pacific SSTs. Our analysis suggests that strong El Niño's may be followed by warm western Pacific SST conditions, which can lead to conditions conducive to successive and potentially predictable droughts in SA DJF, EA OND and EA MAM. We show that different regions of warm SST are related to recent droughts?SA DJF: Niño 3.4; EA OND: western equatorial Pacific (WEP); and EA MAM: western North Pacific (WNP). For DJF and MAM, respectively, the CAM5 model driven with observed SST and the same model driven within a climate change experiment indicate that warmer El Niño's and WNP events produce more intense atmospheric responses, potentially associated with more severe droughts. OND climate seems to be strongly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, which corresponds with some WEP events. Given global warming, we suggest that the extreme Niño 3.4 and west Pacific SST events responsible for 2015?2017 droughts are likely to reoccur, thus humanitarian agencies should prepare to predict and respond to multi-year drought and substantial food insecurity in SA and EA.}, keywords = {drought analysis food security and climate change general-circulation model experiments health observational data analysis policy remote sensing seasonal prediction surface-based observations}, ISSN = {0035-9009}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3266}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3266}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1815, author = {Funk, Chris and Shukla, Shraddhanand and Hoell, Andy and Livneh, Ben}, title = {16. ASSESSING THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF EAST AFRICAN AND WEST PACIFIC WARMING TO THE 2014 BOREAL SPRING EAST AFRICAN DROUGHT}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, volume = {96}, number = {12}, pages = {S77-S82}, ISSN = {00030007, 15200477}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/26233145}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @inproceedings{RN1816, author = {Gabert, Julien}, title = {How to make urban and sanitation planning work? Lessons learnt from West Africa, South East Asia, Madagascar, and Haiti}, booktitle = {BORDA Symposium - Integrated Management of Used Water and Sanitation}, editor = {Gutterer, Bernd and Reuter, Stefen}, publisher = {Bremen Overseas Research & Development Association (BORDA)}, pages = {50-53}, url = {https://www.gret.org/publication/how-to-make-urban-and-sanitation-planning-work-lessons-learnt-from-west-africa-south-east-asia-madagascar-and-haiti/?lang=en}, type = {Conference Proceedings} } @article{RN1817, author = {Galle, S. and Grippa, M. and Peugeot, C. and Moussa, I. Bouzou and Cappelaere, B. and Demarty, J. and Mougin, E. and Panthou, G. and Adjomayi, P. and Agbossou, E. K. and Ba, A. and Boucher, M. and Cohard, J. M. and Descloitres, M. and Descroix, L. and Diawara, M. and Dossou, M. and Favreau, G. and Gangneron, F. and Gosset, M. and Hector, B. and Hiernaux, P. and Issoufou, B. A. and Kergoat, L. and Lawin, E. and Lebel, T. and Legchenko, A. and Abdou, M. Malam and Malam-Issa, O. and Mamadou, O. and Nazoumou, Y. and Pellarin, T. and Quantin, G. and Sambou, B. and Seghieri, J. and Séguis, L. and Vandervaere, J. P. and Vischel, T. and Vouillamoz, J. M. and Zannou, A. and Afouda, S. and Alhassane, A. and Arjounin, M. and Barral, H. and Biron, R. and Cazenave, F. and Chaffard, V. and Chazarin, J. P. and Guyard, H. and Koné, A. and Mainassara, I. and Mamane, A. and Oi, M. and Ouani, T. and Soumaguel, N. and Wubda, M. and Ago, E. E. and Alle, I. C. and Allies, A. and Arpin-Pont, F. and Awessou, B. and Cassé, C. and Charvet, G. and Dardel, C. and Depeyre, A. and Diallo, F. B. and Do, T. and Fatras, C. and Frappart, F. and Gal, L. and Gascon, T. and Gibon, F. and Guiro, I. and Ingatan, A. and Kempf, J. and Kotchoni, D. O. V. and Lawson, F. M. A. and Leauthaud, C. and Louvet, S. and Mason, E. and Nguyen, C. C. and Perrimond, B. and Pierre, C. and Richard, A. and Robert, E. and Román-Cascón, C. and Velluet, C. and Wilcox, C.}, title = {AMMA-CATCH, a Critical Zone Observatory in West Africa Monitoring a Region in Transition}, journal = {Vadose Zone Journal}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {180062}, note = {https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.03.0062}, abstract = {Core Ideas AMMA-CATCH is a long-term critical zone observatory in West Africa. Four sites sample the sharp ecoclimatic gradient characteristic of this region. Combined measurements of meteorology, water, and vegetation dynamics began in 1990. Intensification of rainfall and hydrological cycles is observed. The strong overall re-greening may hide contrasted changes. West Africa is a region in fast transition from climate, demography, and land use perspectives. In this context, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)?Couplage de l'Atmosphère Tropicale et du Cycle eco-Hydrologique (CATCH) long-term regional observatory was developed to monitor the impacts of global change on the critical zone of West Africa and to better understand its current and future dynamics. The observatory is organized into three thematic axes, which drive the observation and instrumentation strategy: (i) analyze the long-term evolution of eco-hydrosystems from a regional perspective; (ii) better understand critical zone processes and their variability; and (iii) meet socioeconomic and development needs. To achieve these goals, the observatory has gathered data since 1990 from four densely instrumented mesoscale sites (?104 km2 each), located at different latitudes (Benin, Niger, Mali, and Senegal) so as to sample the sharp eco-climatic gradient that is characteristic of the region. Simultaneous monitoring of the vegetation cover and of various components of the water balance at these four sites has provided new insights into the seemingly paradoxical eco-hydrological changes observed in the Sahel during the last decades: groundwater recharge and/or runoff intensification despite rainfall deficit and subsequent re-greening with still increasing runoff. Hydrological processes and the role of certain key landscape features are highlighted, as well as the importance of an appropriate description of soil and subsoil characteristics. Applications of these scientific results for sustainable development issues are proposed. Finally, detecting and attributing eco-hydrological changes and identifying possible regime shifts in the hydrologic cycle are the next challenges that need to be faced.}, ISSN = {1539-1663}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.03.0062}, url = {https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.03.0062}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1818, author = {Gan, T. Y. and Ito, Mari and Hülsmann, S. and Qin, X. and Lu, X. X. and Liong, S. Y. and Rutschman, P. and Disse, M. and Koivusalo, H.}, title = {Possible climate change/variability and human impacts, vulnerability of drought-prone regions, water resources and capacity building for Africa}, journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal}, volume = {61}, number = {7}, pages = {1209-1226}, ISSN = {0262-6667}, DOI = {10.1080/02626667.2015.1057143}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1057143}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1819, author = {Gannon, Kate Elizabeth and Conway, Declan and Pardoe, Joanna and Ndiyoi, Mukelabai and Batisani, Nnyaladzi and Odada, Eric and Olago, Daniel and Opere, Alfred and Kgosietsile, Sinah and Nyambe, Mubita and Omukuti, Jessica and Siderius, Christian}, title = {Business experience of floods and drought-related water and electricity supply disruption in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2015/2016 El Niño}, journal = {Global Sustainability}, volume = {1}, number = {e14}, pages = {1–15}, ISSN = {2059-4798}, DOI = {10.1017/sus.2018.14}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1820, author = {Gao, H. and Bohn, T. J. and Podest, E. and McDonald, K. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P.}, title = {On the causes of the shrinking of Lake Chad}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034021}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1821, author = {García Criado, Mariana and Myers-Smith, Isla H. and Bjorkman, Anne D. and Lehmann, Caroline E. R. and Stevens, Nicola}, title = {Woody plant encroachment intensifies under climate change across tundra and savanna biomes}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, volume = {29}, number = {5}, pages = {925-943}, abstract = {Abstract Aim Biomes worldwide are shifting with global change. Biomes whose extents are limited by temperature or precipitation, such as the tundra and savanna, may be particularly strongly affected by climate change. While woody plant encroachment is prevalent across both biomes, its relationship to temperature and precipitation change remains unknown. Here, we quantify the degree to which woody encroachment is related to climate change and identify its main associated drivers. Location Tundra and savanna biomes. Time period 1992 ± 20.27?2010 ± 5.62 (mean ± SD). 1876?2016 (range). Major taxa studied Woody plants (shrubs and trees). Methods We compiled a dataset comprising 1,089 records from 899 sites of woody plant cover over time and attributed drivers of woody cover change across these two biomes. We calculated cover change in each biome and assessed the degree to which cover change corresponds to concurrent temperature and precipitation changes using multiple climate metrics. Finally, we conducted a quantitative literature review of the relative importance of attributed drivers of woody cover change. Results Woody encroachment was widespread geographically and across climate gradients. Rates of woody cover change (positive or negative) were 1.8 times lower in the tundra than in the savanna (1.8 vs. 3.2%), while rates of woody cover increase (i.e., encroachment) were c. 1.7 times lower in the tundra compared with the savanna (3.7 vs. 6.3% per decade). In the tundra, magnitudes of woody cover change did not correspond to climate, while in the savanna, greater cover change corresponded with increases in precipitation. We found higher rates of woody cover change in wetter versus drier sites with warming in the tundra biome, and higher rates of woody cover change in drier versus wetter sites with increasing precipitation in the savanna. However, faster rates of woody cover change were not associated with more rapid rates of climate change across sites, except for maximum precipitation in the savanna. Main conclusions Woody encroachment was positively related to warming in the tundra and increased rainfall in the savanna. However, cover change rates were not predicted by rates of climate change, which can be partially explained by climate interactions in both biomes. Additional likely influences include site-level factors, time-lags, plant-specific responses, and land use and other non-climate drivers. Our findings highlight the complex nature of climate change impacts in biomes limited by seasonality, which should be accounted for to realistically estimate future responses across open biomes under global change scenarios.}, keywords = {biomes climate change precipitation savanna shrubs temperature trees tundra woody encroachment}, ISSN = {1466-822X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13072}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13072}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1822, author = {García, L.E. and Matthews, J.H. and Rodriguez, D.J. and Wijnen, M. and DiFrancesco, K.N. and Ray, P. }, title = {Beyond Downscaling: A Bottom-Up Approach to Climate Adaptation for Water Resources Management}, institution = {World Bank Group}, number = {AGWA Report 01}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1824, author = {Garcia, Raquel A. and Cabeza, Mar and Altwegg, Res and Araújo, Miguel B.}, title = {Do projections from bioclimatic envelope models and climate change metrics match?}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, volume = {25}, number = {1}, pages = {65-74}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12386}, abstract = {Abstract Aim Bioclimatic envelope models are widely used to describe changes in climatically suitable areas for species under future climate scenarios. Climate change metrics are applied independently of species data to characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of climate, and have also been used as indicators of the exposure of species to climate change. Here, we investigate whether these two approaches provide qualitatively similar indications about where biodiversity is potentially most exposed to climate change. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We compared a range of climate change metrics for sub-Saharan Africa with ensembles of bioclimatic envelope models for 2723 species of amphibians, snakes, mammals and birds. For each taxonomic group, we performed three comparisons between the two approaches: (1) is projected change in local climatic suitability (models) greater in grid cells with larger temporal differences in local climate (metrics); (2) are projected losses or gains of climatically suitable areas (models) greater for species in grid cells with climates that are projected to be less or more available in the future, respectively (metrics); and (3) are projected shifts in the position of climatically suitable areas (models) greater for species in grid cells with climates projected to move farther in space (metrics)? Results The changes in climatic suitability projected by the bioclimatic envelope models covaried with the climatic changes measured with the metrics. Agreement between the two approaches was found for all taxonomic groups, although it was stronger for species with a narrower climatic envelope breadth. Main conclusions For sub-Saharan African vertebrates, projected patterns of exposure to climate change given by climate change metrics alone were qualitatively comparable to bioclimatic model projections of changes in areas of suitable climate for species. Assessments based on climate change metrics can thus be useful for making first-cut inferences about the potential effects of climate change on regions with poorly known biodiversity.}, keywords = {Africa bioclimatic envelope model climate anomalies climate change ecological niche model exposure vertebrate}, ISSN = {1466-822X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12386}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12386}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1825, author = {Garcia, Raquel A. and Cabeza, Mar and Rahbek, Carsten and Araújo, Miguel B.}, title = {Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change and Their Implications for Biodiversity}, journal = {Science}, volume = {344}, number = {6183}, pages = {1247579}, abstract = {Background Changes in Earth’s climate over time can be measured in many ways. The different metrics available represent alternative dimensions of climate change, each with distinct implications for biodiversity conservation and other sectors. However, this diversity is rarely recognized. At any given locality, average temperature or precipitation can increase or decrease, extreme values can become more intense or frequent, and the timing of specific climatic events can shift. At the same time, climatic conditions are redistributed at broader spatial extents. Across sets of localities, particular climatic conditions can become more or less available and can shift closer or farther in position at different velocities. Metrics quantifying these and other dimensions of change are commonly used in basic and applied sciences. In ecological contexts, individual metrics have helped to explain the role of past climate changes in driving species diversity or extinctions and to forecast the exposure of biodiversity to future climate changes. Yet, a comparison of the many alternative metrics in use is lacking to gain understanding of their properties and guide their use in biodiversity assessments. The diversity of metrics of climate change. Climate parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, can change at individual localities over time (left), whereas shifts in the distribution of climatic conditions across sets of localities can also occur (right). Local metrics can quantify changes in the magnitude of average or extreme values, as well as shifts in the timing of climatic events. Regional metrics describe how specific climatic conditions may increase or decrease in area, become more dissimilar to past climatic conditions, or move in space. These and other commonly used metrics of climate change describe different dimensions of change and are expected to relate to distinct challenges for biodiversity. Different metrics thus provide complementary information when describing future climates and their potential effects. Examining metrics in combination can show how they interact to exacerbate or lessen species’ exposure to climate change. Advances Our review demonstrates that six commonly used metrics of climate change show contrasting patterns under 21st-century climate forecasts across the world. For example, whereas polar climates are projected to warm and shrink in area, the tropics see the emergence of novel climatic conditions and undergo local changes in average climates beyond past variability. To help interpret metrics of climate change, our review critically assesses the ecological implications of different metrics. Supported by examples of empirical links between observed changes in biological systems and different dimensions of climate change, we outline a conceptual framework for classification of climate change metrics according to the types of threat and opportunity they are likely to impose on biodiversity. Climate changes at the locality level are often associated with demographic threats and opportunities at the population level, whereas changes across localities can have positive or negative implications for the size and the position of species’ ranges. Outlook Forecasting the long-term impacts of future climate changes on biodiversity is challenging, not least because the responses of organisms are contingent on demographic, physiological, and evolutionary mechanisms, as well as on the interaction with other human-induced stressors such as habitat fragmentation. Lack of data for the majority of species on Earth further hampers the use of available bioclimatic modeling methods. By contrast, the use of simple metrics of climate change is more easily scalable to wholesale biodiversity. When appropriately implemented, such examination can provide a first-order assessment of the challenges that species are potentially exposed to, and in many circumstances, it might be the only option available. While forecasts of climate change effects on biodiversity rely mostly on bioclimatic modeling approaches of arying complexity, an alternative to existing models is to use simple metrics to quantify the exposure of regions to climate changes over time and relate them to different threats and opportunities for biodiversity. It remains poorly understood how existing metrics differ in the information they provide, specifically in the context of biodiversity. Garcia et al. (p. 10.1126/science.1247579) review the variety of metrics commonly used to describe climate change in biodiversity-impact assessments covering local changes in climate averages and extremes, regional changes in the availability and position of climates, and the velocity of climate change. While metrics are often arbitrarily chosen in studies of ecology and evolution, and interchangeably used as synonyms of climate change, they capture different dimensions of change and reveal contrasting spatial patterns across the world. Defining the links between climate change dimensions and the challenges they represent to species leads to a framework for interpreting climate change metrics. The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today’s hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth’s biodiversity.}, DOI = {10.1126/science.1247579}, url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/344/6183/1247579.abstract}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1823, author = {García Molinos, Jorge and Halpern, Benjamin S and Schoeman, David S and Brown, Christopher J and Kiessling, Wolfgang and Moore, Pippa J and Pandolfi, John M and Poloczanska, Elvira S and Richardson, Anthony J and Burrows, Michael T}, title = {Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {83-88}, abstract = {Ocean warming will cause widespread changes in species richness and assemblage composition over coming decades, with important implications for both conservation management and international ocean governance.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2769}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2769}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1826, author = {García-Pando, Carlos Pérez and Stanton, Michelle C and Diggle, Peter J and Trzaska, Sylwia and Miller, Ron L and Perlwitz, Jan P and Baldasano, José M and Cuevas, Emilio and Ceccato, Pietro and Yaka, Pascal and others}, title = {Soil dust aerosols and wind as predictors of seasonal meningitis incidence in Niger}, journal = {Environmental health perspectives}, volume = {122}, number = {7}, pages = {679–686}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306640}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1827, author = {Gasparrini, A. and Guo, Y. and Hashizume, M. and Lavigne, E. and Zanobetti, A. and Schwartz, J. and Tobias, A. and Tong, S. and Rocklov, J. and Forsberg, B. and Leone, M. and De Sario, M. and Bell, M. L. and Guo, Y. L. and Wu, C. F. and Kan, H. and Yi, S. M. and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. and Saldiva, P. H. and Honda, Y. and Kim, H. and Armstrong, B.}, title = {Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study}, journal = {Lancet}, volume = {386}, number = {9991}, pages = {369-75}, keywords = {Climate Cold Temperature/*adverse effects Global Health/*statistics & numerical data Hot Temperature/*adverse effects Humans *Mortality Risk Assessment/methods}, ISSN = {1474-547X (Electronic) 0140-6736 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26003380}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1828, author = {Gates, A and Klein, M and Acquaotta, F and Garland, RM and Scovronick, N}, title = {Short-term association between ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa: a case-crossover study}, journal = {Environmental Health}, volume = {18:109}, DOI = {10.1186/s12940-019-0549-4}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1829, author = {Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. and Hamlet, Arran and Cibrelus, Laurence and Garske, Tini and Ferguson, Neil M.}, title = {The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa}, journal = {eLife}, volume = {9}, pages = {e55619}, keywords = {yellow fever climate change mathematical model}, ISSN = {2050-084X}, DOI = {10.7554/eLife.55619}, url = {https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.55619}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1831, author = {GCF}, title = {Programme for integrated development and adaptation to climate change in the Niger Basin (PIDACC/NB)}, institution = {Green Climate Fund (GCF)}, url = {https://www.greenclimate.fund/project/fp092}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1830, author = {GCF}, title = {Updated Gender Policy and Action Plan 2018–2020}, institution = {Green Climate Fund}, url = {https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/gcf-b21-02.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1832, author = {Gebre, Girma Gezimu and Rahut, Dil Bahadur}, title = {Prevalence of household food insecurity in East Africa: Linking food access with climate vulnerability}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, volume = {33}, pages = {100333}, keywords = {Food insecurity Household Climate change Vulnerability East Africa}, ISSN = {2212-0963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100333}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321000620}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1833, author = {Gebrechorkos, Solomon H. and Hülsmann, Stephan and Bernhofer, Christian}, title = {Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {18-30}, ISSN = {08998418}, DOI = {10.1002/joc.5777}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1834, author = {Gebremeskel Haile, Gebremedhin and Tang, Qiuhong and Sun, Siao and Huang, Zhongwei and Zhang, Xuejun and Liu, Xingcai}, title = {Droughts in East Africa: Causes, impacts and resilience}, journal = {Earth-Science Reviews}, volume = {193}, pages = {146-161}, abstract = {East Africa (EA) has been the primary focus for various drought studies in recent years. However, a comprehensive analysis of droughts, including their evolution, complexity, social implications and people's vulnerability is currently lacking. Hence, there is a pressing need for an overview of drought studies in EA. Here, we present a state-of-the-art review of the causes and impacts of, and resilience to droughts in EA. Studies reveal that droughts tend to be more frequent, longer and more severe in the boreal spring and summer in EA, as the overall precipitation and water storage abruptly decline. A decrease in drought frequency is observed during the boreal autumn season (October–November). As these studies have only been analysed within the context of sparse and short-term regional climate data with very complex spatial and seasonal climate patterns, they are subject to uncertainties. The main causes for the changing pattern of droughts include climate variabilities and anthropogenic effects. Droughts have extensive impacts on human beings, environment, water resources and agriculture. Environmental rehabilitation involving the development of ecosystem services, biodiversity enhancement and soil and water conservation is found to be a suitable strategy to adapt to drought conditions. A better understanding of the causes and impacts of droughts, participatory management and community level actions are essential for building resilience to drought. Strong citizens–government–stakeholder cooperation is also valuable in monitoring and managing drought. The knowledge and insights gained from this review will help the countries in EA to build a drought-resilient society and will form a basis of information for other regions outside of EA.}, keywords = {Drought East Africa Anthropogenic activities Rainfall Horn of Africa Climate variability}, ISSN = {0012-8252}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.015}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825218303519}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1835, author = {Gebresenbet, Fana and Kefale, Asnake}, title = {Traditional coping mechanisms for climate change of pastoralists in South Omo, Ethiopia}, journal = {Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge}, volume = {11}, number = {4}, pages = {573-579}, ISSN = {0975-1068}, url = {http://nopr.niscair.res.in/bitstream/123456789/14945/1/IJTK%2011%284%29%20573-579.pdf}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1836, author = {GEF}, title = {Mozambique: Building Resilience in the Coastal Zone through Ecosystem Based Approaches to Adaptation (EbA)}, institution = {Global Environment Facility}, url = {https://www.thegef.org/project/mozambique-building-resilience-coastal-zone-through-ecosystem-based-approaches-adaptation}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1837, author = {GEF and FAO}, title = {Enhancing Climate Change Resilience in the Benguela Current Fisheries System}, institution = {FAO and the GEF}, url = {http://www.fao.org/gef/projects/detail/en/c/1056798/}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1838, author = {Gemenne, François and Blocher, Julia}, title = {How can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal}, journal = {The Geographical Journal}, volume = {183}, number = {4}, pages = {336-347}, ISSN = {0016-7398}, DOI = {10.1111/geoj.12205}, url = {https://rgs-ibg.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/geoj.12205}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1839, author = {Gemenne, F. and Blocher, J. and}, title = {Climate change, natural disasters and population displacements in West Africa}, journal = {Geo-Eco-Trop}, volume = {41}, number = {3}, pages = {317-337}, keywords = {Climate change,Environmental degradation,Migration,Natural disasters,Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa],Vulnerability,West Africa,adaptive management,climate change,climate effect,coastal erosion,coastal zone,desertification,environmental change,environmental d}, ISSN = {13706071 (ISSN)}, url = {http://www.geoecotrop.be/uploads/publications/pub_413_02.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1840, author = {Ghanem, H}, title = {The State of Food and Agriculture: Women in Agriculture–Closing the Gender Gap for Development}, journal = {Rome: Food and agricultural organization of the United Nations (FAO)}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1841, author = {Ghermandi, Andrea and Obura, David and Knudsen, Camilla and Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.}, title = {Marine ecosystem services in the Northern Mozambique Channel: A geospatial and socio-economic analysis for policy support}, journal = {Ecosystem Services}, volume = {35}, pages = {1-12}, ISSN = {22120416}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.10.009}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1842, author = {Giannini, Alessandra and Kaplan, Alexey}, title = {The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {152}, number = {3}, pages = {449-466}, abstract = {We exploit the multi-model ensemble produced by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to synthesize current understanding of external forcing of Sahel rainfall change, past and future, through the lens of oceanic influence. The CMIP5 multi-model mean simulates the twentieth century evolution of Sahel rainfall, including the mid-century decline toward the driest years in the early 1980s and the partial recovery since. We exploit a physical argument linking anthropogenic emissions to the change in the temperature of the sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean relative to the global tropical oceans to demonstrate indirect attribution of late twentieth century Sahel drought to the unique combination of aerosols and greenhouse gases that characterized the post-World War II period. The subsequent reduction in aerosol emissions around the North Atlantic that resulted from environmental legislation to curb acid rain, occurring as global tropical warming continued unabated, is consistent with the current partial recovery and with projections of future wetting. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) applied to the above-mentioned sea surface temperature (SST) indices provides a succinct description of oceanic influence on Sahel rainfall and reveals the near-orthogonality in the influence of emissions between twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the independent effects of aerosols and greenhouse gases project on the difference of SST indices and explain past variation, while the dominance of greenhouse gases projects on their sum and explains future projection. This result challenges the assumption that because anthropogenic warming had a hand in past Sahel drought, continued warming will result in further drying. In fact, the twenty-first century dominance of greenhouse gases, unchallenged by aerosols, results in projections consistent with warming-induced strengthening of the monsoon, a response that has gained in coherence in CMIP5 compared to prior multi-model exercises.}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1843, author = {Giesen, Christine and Roche, Jesús and Redondo-Bravo, Lidia and Ruiz-Huerta, Claudia and Gomez-Barroso, Diana and Benito, Agustin and Herrador, Zaida}, title = {The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Africa}, journal = {Pathogens and Global Health}, volume = {114}, number = {6}, pages = {287-301}, ISSN = {2047-7724}, DOI = {10.1080/20477724.2020.1783865}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/20477724.2020.1783865}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1844, author = {Gilbert, Marius and Nicolas, Gaëlle and Cinardi, Giusepina and Van Boeckel, Thomas P. and Vanwambeke, Sophie O. and Wint, G. R. William and Robinson, Timothy P.}, title = {Global distribution data for cattle, buffaloes, horses, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and ducks in 2010}, journal = {Scientific Data}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {180227}, abstract = {Global data sets on the geographic distribution of livestock are essential for diverse applications in agricultural socio-economics, food security, environmental impact assessment and epidemiology. We present a new version of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW 3) database, reflecting the most recently compiled and harmonized subnational livestock distribution data for 2010. GLW 3 provides global population densities of cattle, buffaloes, horses, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens and ducks in each land pixel at a spatial resolution of 0.083333 decimal degrees (approximately 10 km at the equator). They are accompanied by detailed metadata on the year, spatial resolution and source of the input census data. Two versions of each species distribution are produced. In the first version, livestock numbers are disaggregated within census polygons according to weights established by statistical models using high resolution spatial covariates (dasymetric weighting). In the second version, animal numbers are distributed homogeneously with equal densities within their census polygons (areal weighting) to provide spatial data layers free of any assumptions linking them to other spatial variables.}, ISSN = {2052-4463}, DOI = {10.1038/sdata.2018.227}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.227}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1845, author = {Gillson, L. and Dawson, T. P. and Jack, S. and McGeoch, M. A.}, title = {Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy}, journal = {Trends Ecol Evol}, volume = {28}, number = {3}, pages = {135-42}, keywords = {Adaptation, Physiological Biodiversity *Climate Change *Conservation of Natural Resources Models, Theoretical Plant Physiological Phenomena Population Dynamics Species Specificity}, ISSN = {1872-8383 (Electronic) 0169-5347 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.008}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23146578}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1846, author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Raffaele, Francesca and Coppola, Erika}, title = {The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {73-89}, ISSN = {2190-4987}, DOI = {10.5194/esd-10-73-2019}, url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/73/2019/}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1847, author = {Global Index Insurance Facility}, title = {Zambia}, institution = {Global Index Insurance Facility}, url = {https://www.indexinsuranceforum.org/sites/default/files/29947_CountryProfile_Zambia_March30.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN1848, author = {Global Parametrics}, title = {Global Parametrics Natural Disaster Fund launched with Vision Fund initiative}, publisher = {Global Parametrics}, volume = {2021}, number = {30/08/2021}, url = {https://www.globalparametrics.com/news/global-parametrics-natural-disaster-fund-launched-with-vision-fund-initiative/}, year = {2018}, type = {Web Page} } @article{RN1849, author = {Godde, C. M. and Mason-D’Croz, D. and Mayberry, D. E. and Thornton, P. K. and Herrero, M.}, title = {Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence}, journal = {Global Food Security}, volume = {28}, pages = {100488}, abstract = {The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.}, keywords = {Livestock Climate change Supply chain Heat stress Vulnerability Risk}, ISSN = {2211-9124}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100488}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912420301413}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1850, author = {Godsmark, Christie Nicole and Irlam, James and van der Merwe, Frances and New, Mark and Rother, Hanna-Andrea}, title = {Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study}, journal = {Environment International}, volume = {122}, pages = {31-51}, keywords = {Climate change Environmental health Low- and middle-income countries Adaptation Sub-national Climate health impacts}, ISSN = {0160-4120}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2018.11.035}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016041201831208X}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1851, author = {Golden, Christopher D. and Allison, Edward H. and Cheung, William W. L. and Dey, Madan M. and Halpern, Benjamin S. and McCauley, Douglas J. and Smith, Matthew and Vaitla, Bapu and Zeller, Dirk and Myers, Samuel S.}, title = {Nutrition: Fall in fish catch threatens human health}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {534}, number = {7607}, pages = {317-320}, abstract = {Christopher Golden and colleagues calculate that declining numbers of marine fish will spell more malnutrition in many developing nations.}, ISSN = {1476-4687}, DOI = {10.1038/534317a}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/534317a}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1852, author = {Golden, C. D. and Koehn, J. Z. and Shepon, A. and Free, C. and Passarelli, S. and Viana, D. and Matthey, H. and Eurich, J. and Gephart, C. J. A. and Fluet-Chouinard, E. and Nyboer, E. A. and Lynch, A. J. and Kjellevold, M. and Bromage, S. and Charlebois, P. and Barange, M. and Vannuccini, S and Cao, L and Kleisner, K. M. and Rimm, E. B. and Danaei, G and DeSisto, C and Kelahan, H and Fiorella, K. J. and Little, D. C. and Allison, E. H. and Fanzo, J. and H., Thilsted. S.}, title = {Aquatic foods to nourish nations}, journal = {Nature}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03917-1}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1853, author = {Gone, Terefe and Balkew, Meshesha and Gebre-Michael, Teshome}, title = {Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia}, journal = {Parasites & Vectors}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, DOI = {10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-014-0483-9}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN1854, author = {Government of Algeria}, title = {Law No. 04-20 relative to the Prevention of Major Risks and the Management of Catastrophes in the Framework of Sustainable Development}, url = {https://climate-laws.org/geographies/algeria/laws/law-no-04-20-relative-to-the-prevention-of-major-risks-and-the-management-of-catastrophes-in-the-framework-of-sustainable-development}, year = {2004}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1855, author = {Government of Benin}, title = {Regulating Climate Change}, year = {2018}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1856, author = {Government of Burkina Faso}, title = {Burkina Faso National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (NAP)}, publisher = {UNFCCC}, url = {https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NAPC/Documents/Parties/PNA_Version_version%20finale%5BTransmission%5D.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1857, author = {Government of Cameroon}, title = {Plan National d’Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques du Cameroun}, publisher = {Government of Cameroon,}, url = {https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NAPC/Documents/Parties/PNACC_Cameroun_VF_Validée_24062015%20-%20FINAL.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1858, author = {Government of Cape Verde}, title = {Resolution no. 87/2014 (creating the Steering Committee of the project 'Strengthening Capacity of Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change in the Water Sector in Cape Verde')}, url = {https://www.climate-laws.org/geographies/cabo-verde/policies/resolution-no-87-2014-creating-the-steering-committee-of-the-project-strengthening-capacity-of-adaptation-and-resilience-to-climate-change-in-the-water-sector-in-cape-verde}, year = {2014}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1859, author = {Government of Central African Republic}, title = {Law no. 08.222 (on the forestry code)}, url = {https://www.climate-laws.org/geographies/central-african-republic/laws/law-no-08-222-on-the-forestry-code}, year = {2008}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1860, author = {Government of Ethiopia}, title = {Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy: National Adaptation Plan}, publisher = {Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia}, url = {https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi_r9-UnIDlAhWgSRUIHYosAQYQFjAJegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww4.unfccc.int%2Fsites%2FNAPC%2FDocuments%2FParties%2FFinal%2520Ethiopia-national-adaptation-plan%2520%25281%2529.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1u-dBNOG1S-N1MuQObwZ7o}, year = {2019}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1861, author = {Government of Gabon}, title = {Decree No. 0122 setting the responsibilities, organization and functioning of the National Council on Climate Change}, year = {2016}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1862, author = {Government of Ghana}, title = {Public statement that a climate change law is under consideration}, url = {http://www.climateaction.org/news/ghana-to-make-its-climate-policies-legally-binding}, year = {2018}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1863, author = {Government of Guinea Bissau}, title = {Law No. 1/2011 approving the Basic Legislation on Environment}, url = {https://www.informea.org/en/legislation/law-no-12011-approving-basic-legislation-environment}, year = {2011}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1864, author = {Government of Ivory Coast}, title = {Decree No. 2012-1049 of 24 October 2012 establishing the organization and functioning of the National Commission for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation}, url = {https://www.uncclearn.org/wp-content/uploads/library/redd_strategy_document_-_anglais_002_791646.pdf}, year = {2012}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1865, author = {Government of Kenya}, title = {Climate Change Act No 11 of 2016}, url = {http://www.environment.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The_Kenya_Climate_Change_Act_2016.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1866, author = {Government of Kenya}, title = {National Climate Change Action Plan 2013-2017}, publisher = {Government Printer}, url = {http://www.environment.go.ke/wpcontent/uploads/2018/08/nationalclimatechangeactionplan2013-2017.pdf }, year = {2017}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1867, author = {Government of Lesotho}, title = {Lesotho: Environment Act 2008 (No. 10 of 2008)}, url = {https://lesotholii.org/ls/legislation/act/2008/10/envrironment_act_of_2008_pdf_73254.pdf}, year = {2008}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1868, author = {Government of Liberia}, title = {Environmental Protection and Management Law of the Republic of Liberia}, url = {https://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/laws/4080.pdf}, year = {2002}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1869, author = {Government of Madagascar}, title = {Law no. 2015-031 on the National Policy of Risk Management and Catastrophes}, url = {https://www.climate-laws.org/legislation_and_policies?from_geography_page=Madagascar&geography%5B%5D=105&type%5B%5D=legislative}, year = {2015}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1870, author = {Government of Malawi}, title = {Environment Management Act, 2017 (No. 19 of 2017)}, url = {https://www.ecolex.org/details/legislation/environment-management-act-2017-no-19-of-2017-lex-faoc169354/}, year = {2017}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1871, author = {Government of Malawi}, title = {Malawi 2019 Floods Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)}, pages = {106}, url = {https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Malawi%202019%20Floods%20Post%20Disaster%20Needs%20Assessment%20Report.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1872, author = {Government of Mali}, title = {Ordinance No. 2016-007 P-RM of 25 February 2016 establishing the Project to Strengthen Resilience to Food Insecurity and Decree No. 2011-107-PM-RM of March 11, 2011 establishing the National Climate Change Committee Mali}, url = {https://www.weadapt.org/subject/mali}, year = {2016}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1873, author = {Government of Morocco}, title = {Framework Law 99-12 on the National Charter for the Environment and Sustainable Development}, url = {http://climatepolicydatabase.org/index.php/Framework_Law_99-12_on_the_National_Charter_for_the_Environment_and_Sustainable_Development_Morocco_2014}, year = {2014}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1874, author = {Government of Mozambique}, title = {Law No. 15/2014 establishing the legal framework for disaster management}, url = {https://www.ecolex.org/details/legislation/law-no-152014-establishing-the-legal-framework-for-disaster-management-lex-faoc134835/}, year = {2014}, type = {Statute} } @techreport{RN1875, author = {Government of Mozambique}, title = {Mozambique Cyclone Idai: Post Disaster Needs Assessment}, institution = {Government of Mozambique}, url = {https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Climate%20and%20Disaster%20Resilience/PDNA/PDNA%20Mozambique%20Cyclone%20Idai%20-%20Post-Disaster%20Needs%20Assessment_Executive%20Summary.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN1876, author = {Government of Niger}, title = {Law no. 98-56 (Framework Law on Environmental Management)}, url = {http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/ner19572.pdf}, year = {1998}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1877, author = {Government of Nigeria}, title = {Climate Change Bill 2017}, url = {https://climate-laws.org/legislation_and_policies?from_geography_page=Nigeria&geography%5B%5D=130&type%5B%5D=executive}, year = {2017}, type = {Statute} } @techreport{RN1878, author = {Government of Republic of Rwanda}, title = {Updated Nationally Determined Contribution }, institution = {Minister of Environment Republic of Rwanda}, url = {https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Rwanda%20First/Rwanda_Updated_NDC_May_2020.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN1879, author = {Government of Rwanda}, title = {Law No. 16 of 22 May 2012, determining the Organisation, Functioning and Mission of the National Fund for Environment}, url = {https://www.climate-laws.org/legislation_and_policies?from_geography_page=Rwanda&geography%5B%5D=147&type%5B%5D=legislative}, year = {2012}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1880, author = {Government of Sierra Leone}, title = {The National Protected Area Authority and Conservation Trust Fund Act, 2012 (No. 11 of 2012)}, url = {http://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/en/c/LEX-FAOC150279/#:~:text=11%20of%202012).,provide%20for%20other%20related%20matters.}, year = {2012}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1881, author = {Government of Somalia}, title = {Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA) Vol. 2}, volume = {2}, pages = {180}, url = {https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/climate-and-disaster-resilience-/somalia-drought-impact-and-needs-assessment.html}, year = {2018}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1882, author = {Government of South Africa}, title = {Climate Change Bill}, url = {https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/legislations/climatechangebill2018_gn41689.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1883, author = {Government of Tanzania}, title = {Environmental Management Act 20 of 2004}, url = {http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/tan71740a.pdf}, year = {2004}, type = {Statute} } @techreport{RN1884, author = {Government of the Republic of Kenya}, title = {National Climate Change Action Plan (Kenya): 2018-2022}, institution = {Ministry of Environment and Forestry}, url = {https://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/8737.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1885, author = {Government of the Republic of Zambia}, title = {National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) Zambia}, institution = {Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources}, url = {https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/zambia-climate_change_response_strategy.pdf}, year = {2010}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN1886, author = {Government of the Seychelles}, title = {Conservation and Climate Adaptation Trust of Seychelles Act 18 of 2015}, url = {https://seylii.org/sc/sc/legislation/Act%2018%20of%202015%20Conservation%20and%20Climate%20Adaptation%20Trust%20of%20Seychelles%20Act%2C%202015.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Statute} } @techreport{RN1887, author = {Government of The Seychelles}, title = {Seychelles National Climate Change Strategy}, institution = {Seychelles Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change}, url = {http://www.meecc.gov.sc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/seychelles-national-climate-change-policy-may-2020.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN1888, author = {Government of Togo}, title = {Law 2008-005 - Framework Law on the Environment}, url = {https://www.climate-laws.org/geographies/togo/laws/law-2008-005-framework-law-on-the-environment}, year = {2008}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1889, author = {Government of Togo}, title = {Plan National d’Adaption aux Changements Climatiques du Togo (PNACC)}, publisher = {Ministere de l’Environment et des Ressources Forestieres}, url = {https://www.preventionweb.net/files/12232_TogoNAPA.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Government Document} } @misc{RN1890, author = {Government of Uganda}, title = {Climate Change Bill 2018}, url = {https://www.pelumuganda.org/download/2018-the-draft-national-climate-change-bill-emerging-issues-recommendations-for-integration-into-the-proposed-law/}, year = {2018}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1891, author = {Government of Zambia}, title = {Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2016}, url = {http://www.parliament.gov.zm/sites/default/files/documents/amendment_act/Constitution%20of%20Zambia%20%20%28Amendment%29%2C%202016-Act%20No.%202_0.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1892, author = {Government of Zimbabwe}, title = {Draft Climate Change Bill, 2019}, url = {https://climate-laws.org/geographies/zimbabwe}, year = {2019}, type = {Statute} } @misc{RN1893, author = {Governmet of the United Republic of Tanzania}, title = {National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan}, pages = {100}, url = {http://www.tzdpg.or.tz/fileadmin/_migrated/content_uploads/TZ_CC_strategy_draft_Jan_2012_01.pdf}, year = {2011}, type = {Government Document} } @article{RN1894, author = {Gownaris, Natasha J. and Pikitch, Ellen K. and Aller, Josephine Y. and Kaufman, Les S. and Kolding, Jeppe and Lwiza, Kamazima M. M. and Obiero, Kevin O. and Ojwang, William O. and Malala, John O. and Rountos, Konstantine J.}, title = {Fisheries and water level fluctuations in the world's largest desert lake}, journal = {Ecohydrology}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {e1769}, ISSN = {1936-0584 1936-0592}, DOI = {10.1002/eco.1769}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eco.1769}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1895, author = {Gownaris, N. J. and Rountos, K. J. and Kaufman, L. and Kolding, J. and Lwiza, K. M. M. and Pikitch, E. K.}, title = {Water level fluctuations and the ecosystem functioning of lakes}, journal = {Journal of Great Lakes Research}, volume = {44}, number = {6}, pages = {1154-1163}, ISSN = {03801330}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jglr.2018.08.005}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1896, author = {Grace, Kathryn and Hertrich, Véronique and Singare, Djeneba and Husak, Greg}, title = {Examining rural Sahelian out-migration in the context of climate change: An analysis of the linkages between rainfall and out-migration in two Malian villages from 1981 to 2009}, journal = {World Development}, volume = {109}, pages = {187-196}, keywords = {Mali Out-migration Rainfall Food security}, ISSN = {0305-750X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.04.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X18301281}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1897, author = {Graff Zivin, Joshua and Neidell, Matthew}, title = {Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change}, journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, volume = {32}, number = {1}, pages = {1-26}, ISSN = {0734-306X 1537-5307}, DOI = {10.1086/671766}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1898, author = {Graham, J. P. and Hirai, M. and Kim, S. S.}, title = {An Analysis of Water Collection Labor among Women and Children in 24 Sub-Saharan African Countries}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {e0155981}, note = {Graham, Jay P Hirai, Mitsuaki Kim, Seung-Sup eng PLoS One. 2016 Jun 1;11(6):e0155981. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155981. eCollection 2016.}, abstract = {BACKGROUND: It is estimated that more than two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) must leave their home to collect water, putting them at risk for a variety of negative health outcomes. There is little research, however, quantifying who is most affected by long water collection times. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to a) describe gender differences in water collection labor among both adults and children (< 15 years of age) in the households (HHs) that report spending more than 30 minutes collecting water, disaggregated by urban and rural residence; and b) estimate the absolute number of adults and children affected by water collection times greater than 30 minutes in 24 SSA countries. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) (2005-2012) to describe water collection labor in 24 SSA countries. RESULTS: Among households spending more than 30 minutes collecting water, adult females were the primary collectors of water across all 24 countries, ranging from 46% in Liberia (17,412 HHs) to 90% in Cote d'Ivoire (224,808 HHs). Across all countries, female children were more likely to be responsible for water collection than male children (62% vs. 38%, respectively). Six countries had more than 100,000 households (HHs) where children were reported to be responsible for water collection (greater than 30 minutes): Burundi (181,702 HHs), Cameroon (154,453 HHs), Ethiopia (1,321,424 HHs), Mozambique (129,544 HHs), Niger (171,305 HHs), and Nigeria (1,045,647 HHs). CONCLUSION: In the 24 SSA countries studied, an estimated 3.36 million children and 13.54 million adult females were responsible for water collection in households with collection times greater than 30 minutes. We suggest that accessibility to water, water collection by children, and gender ratios for water collection, especially when collection times are great, should be considered as key indicators for measuring progress in the water, sanitation and hygiene sector.}, keywords = {Adult Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology Child Female Humans *Water Supply}, ISSN = {1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0155981}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27248494}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1899, author = {Granoff, Ilmi and Hogarth, J. Ryan and Miller, Alan}, title = {Nested barriers to low-carbon infrastructure investment}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {12}, pages = {1065-1071}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3142}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3142}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @phdthesis{RN1900, author = {Grant, Bronwyn Caroline}, title = {Investigating tourism and climate change: the case of St Francis Bay and Cape St Francis}, university = {University of the Witwatersrand}, url = {http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/19286/Final%20Msc%20dissertation.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y}, year = {2015}, type = {Thesis} } @article{RN1901, author = {Grasham, Catherine F. and Korzenevica, Marina and Charles, Katrina J.}, title = {On considering climate resilience in urban water security: A review of the vulnerability of the urban poor in sub‐Saharan Africa}, journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, ISSN = {2049-1948 2049-1948}, DOI = {10.1002/wat2.1344}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1902, author = {Gray, C. and Mueller, V.}, title = {Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia}, journal = {World Dev}, volume = {40}, number = {1}, pages = {134-145}, ISSN = {0305-750X (Print) 0305-750x}, DOI = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3328858/pdf/nihms299747.pdf}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1903, author = {Gray, C. and Wise, E.}, title = {Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {135}, number = {(3–4)}, pages = {555–568}, ISSN = {0165-0009 (Print) 0165-0009 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1904, author = {Gray, Claudia L. and Hill, Samantha L. L. and Newbold, Tim and Hudson, Lawrence N. and Börger, Luca and Contu, Sara and Hoskins, Andrew J. and Ferrier, Simon and Purvis, Andy and Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.}, title = {Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {12306}, abstract = {Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.6% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared with samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches.}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/ncomms12306}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12306}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1905, author = {Gray Emma, F. and Bond William, J.}, title = {Will woody plant encroachment impact the visitor experience and economy of conservation areas? : original research}, journal = {Koedoe : African Protected Area Conservation and Science}, volume = {55}, number = {1}, pages = {1-9}, DOI = {10.4102/koedoe.v55i1.1106}, url = {https://doi.org/10.4102/koedoe.v55i1.1106}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1906, author = {Greatrex, H. and Hansen, J. and Garvin, S. and Diro, R. and Blakeley, S. and Le Guen, M. and Rao, K. and Osgood, D. }, title = {Scaling up index insurance for smallholder farmers: Recent evidence and insights}, institution = {CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)}, url = {https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/handle/10568/53101/CCAFS_Report14.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1907, author = {Greene, Sam and Pertaub, David and McIvor, Sarah and Beauchamp, Emilie and Sutz, Philippine}, title = {Understanding local climate priorities. Applying a gender and generation focused planning tool in mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar}, institution = {International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep29063}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1908, author = {Greve, P. and Roderick, M. L. and Ukkola, A. M. and Wada, Y.}, title = {The aridity Index under global warming}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {14}, number = {12}, pages = {124006}, abstract = {Aridity is a complex concept that ideally requires a comprehensive assessment of hydroclimatological and hydroecological variables to fully understand anticipated changes. A widely used (offline) impact model to assess projected changes in aridity is the aridity index (AI) (defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), summarizing the aridity concept into a single number. Based on the AI, it was shown that aridity will generally increase under conditions of increased CO2 and associated global warming. However, assessing the same climate model output directly suggests a more nuanced response of aridity to global warming, raising the question if the AI provides a good representation of the complex nature of anticipated aridity changes. By systematically comparing projections of the AI against projections for various hydroclimatological and ecohydrological variables, we show that the AI generally provides a rather poor proxy for projected aridity conditions. Direct climate model output is shown to contradict signals of increasing aridity obtained from the AI in at least half of the global land area with robust change. We further show that part of this discrepancy can be related to the parameterization of potential evaporation. Especially the most commonly used potential evaporation model likely leads to an overestimation of future aridity due to incorrect assumptions under increasing atmospheric CO2. Our results show that AI-based approaches do not correctly communicate changes projected by the fully coupled climate models. The solution is to directly analyse the model outputs rather than use a separate offline impact model. We thus urge for a direct and joint assessment of climate model output when assessing future aridity changes rather than using simple index-based impact models that use climate model output as input and are potentially subject to significant biases.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1909, author = {Griscom, Bronson W. and Adams, Justin and Ellis, Peter W. and Houghton, Richard A. and Lomax, Guy and Miteva, Daniela A. and Schlesinger, William H. and Shoch, David and Siikamäki, Juha V. and Smith, Pete and Woodbury, Peter and Zganjar, Chris and Blackman, Allen and Campari, João and Conant, Richard T. and Delgado, Christopher and Elias, Patricia and Gopalakrishna, Trisha and Hamsik, Marisa R. and Herrero, Mario and Kiesecker, Joseph and Landis, Emily and Laestadius, Lars and Leavitt, Sara M. and Minnemeyer, Susan and Polasky, Stephen and Potapov, Peter and Putz, Francis E. and Sanderman, Jonathan and Silvius, Marcel and Wollenberg, Eva and Fargione, Joseph}, title = {Natural climate solutions}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {114}, number = {44}, pages = {11645}, abstract = {Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1710465114}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/114/44/11645.abstract}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1910, author = {Groth, Juliane and Hermans, Kathleen and Wiederkehr, Charlotte and Kassa, Endeshaw and Thober, Jule}, title = {Investigating environment-related migration processes in Ethiopia – A participatory Bayesian network}, journal = {Ecosystems and People}, volume = {17}, number = {1}, pages = {128-147}, ISSN = {2639-5908}, DOI = {10.1080/26395916.2021.1895888}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1895888}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1911, author = {Gu, D. and Gerland, P. and Pelletier and Cohen, B.}, title = {Risks of Exposure and Vulnerability to Natural Disasters at the City Level: A Global Overview}, number = {2015/2}, month = {2015}, url = {https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014-TechnicalPaper-NaturalDisaster.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1912, author = {Gu, Xihui and Zhang, Qiang and Li, Jianfeng and Chen, Deliang and Singh, Vijay P. and Zhang, Yongqiang and Liu, Jianyu and Shen, Zexi and Yu, Huiqian}, title = {Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {590}, pages = {125262}, abstract = {Employing a multi-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/°C (1.9%/°C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 °C to 1.5 °C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/°C to an increase of 1.7%/°C.}, keywords = {Flood exposures Socio-economic development Multi-model framework Global warming}, ISSN = {0022-1694}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169420307228}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1913, author = {Guan, Kaiyu and Sultan, Benjamin and Biasutti, Michela and …, C Baron - Agricultural and Forest and 2017, Undefined and Baron, Christian and Lobell, David B.}, title = {Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {232}, pages = {291-305}, keywords = {Adaptation Agriculture Climate change Crop model West Africa}, DOI = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.021}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1914, author = {Gudoshava, Masilin and Misiani, Herbert O and Segele, Zewdu T and Jain, Suman and Ouma, Jully O and Otieno, George and Anyah, Richard and Indasi, Victor S and Endris, Hussen Seid and Osima, Sarah}, title = {Projected effects of 1.5 C and 2 C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {034037}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b33}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1915, author = {Gulacha, Metekiya M. and Mulungu, Deogratias M. M.}, title = {Generation of climate change scenarios for precipitation and temperature at local scales using SDSM in Wami-Ruvu River Basin Tanzania}, journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C}, volume = {100}, pages = {62-72}, abstract = {The Wami-Ruvu River Basin is important for socio-economic activities in country such as water supply for Dar es Salaam and Morogoro cities, and major agricultural activities such as sugarcane irrigation at Mtibwa and Bagamoyo. Due to projected climate change and its impacts at global scale, it is important to understand future climate change impacts on water resources of Wami-Ruvu River basin. Rainfall and temperature are key variables for analysis of water resources and were used in this study. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the coarse global circulation model (GCM) to local scales by involving predictor predictand relationship. The predictor variables were selected based on partial correlation value (partial r) and significance value (p-value). For assessment of climate change, the baseline period was 30 years during 1961–1990. The baseline period was partitioned into two periods for SDSM calibration and validation: 1961–1975 and 1976–1990 respectively. In this case, ground stations and the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis atmospheric data were used. During validation, the inbuilt scenario generator was used to generate simulated time series for five stations: Morogoro Maji, Ulaya, Ukaguru, Morogoro Airport, Dodoma Airport and Ruvu at Morogoro Rd. Brd. For precipitation, the SDSM's R2 (−) for the two periods ranged 0.07–0.20 and 0.21–0.63 respectively. The respective coefficient of correlation, r (−) ranged 0.03–0.05 and 0.46–0.80, indicating low to high performance of the SDSM. The respective R2 (−) values for temperature ranged: 0.42–0.5 and 0.6–0.98 respectively. The calibrated SDSM model was then used to downscale Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data to the local scales. The GCM used was HadCM3 where A2 and B2 scenarios were used. The climate change scenarios were determined using change factors. Results showed that for Wami-Ruvu basin the mean rainfall will change by −44–107%, −69–328% and 68–648% during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for A2 scenario while by −37–117%, −56–199 and −76–346% respectively for B2 scenario as compared to the baseline period. In all cases, Ulaya and Morogoro Maji stations presented the lowest and highest extremes in the ranges. The downscaled and projected average monthly maximum temperature indicated increasing trend from 0.2 to 7.5 °C in 2020s–2080s time period. The minimum temperature showed decreasing trend from −0.4 to −1.5 °C during the same periods. These results indicate potential for floods or droughts occurrence in the basin, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.}, keywords = {Global circulation model (GCM) Rainfall Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) Temperature Wami-Ruvu River Basin}, ISSN = {1474-7065}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2016.10.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474706516300432}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1916, author = {Gumucio, Tatiana and Hansen, James and Huyer, Sophia and van Huysen, Tiff}, title = {Gender-responsive rural climate services: a review of the literature}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {12}, number = {3}, pages = {241-254}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2019.1613216}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1613216}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1917, author = {Güneralp, Burak and Güneralp, İnci and Liu, Ying}, title = {Changing global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {31}, pages = {217-225}, ISSN = {09593780}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.002}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1918, author = {Gurewich, Deborah and Garg, Arvin and Kressin, Nancy R.}, title = {Addressing Social Determinants of Health Within Healthcare Delivery Systems: a Framework to Ground and Inform Health Outcomes}, journal = {Journal of General Internal Medicine}, volume = {35}, number = {5}, pages = {1571-1575}, ISSN = {1525-1497}, DOI = {10.1007/s11606-020-05720-6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-020-05720-6}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1919, author = {Gutiérrez, J. M. and Jones, R. G. and Narisma, G. T. and Alves, L. M. and Amjad, M. and Gorodetskaya, I. V. and Grose, M. and Klutse, N. A. B. and Krakovska, S. and Li, J. and Martínez-Castro, D. and Mearns, L. O. and Mernild, S. H. and Ngo-Duc, T. and van den Hurk, B. and Yoon, J-H. }, title = {Atlas}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Atlas.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1920, author = {Habermann, Eduardo and Oliveira, Eduardo Augusto Dias de and Contin, Daniele Ribeiro and Delvecchio, Gustavo and Viciedo, Dilier Olivera and Moraes, Marcela Aparecida de and Prado, Renato de Mello and Costa, Kátia Aparecida de Pinho and Braga, Marcia Regina and Martinez, Carlos Alberto}, title = {Warming and water deficit impact leaf photosynthesis and decrease forage quality and digestibility of a C4 tropical grass}, journal = {Physiologia Plantarum}, volume = {165}, number = {2}, pages = {383-402}, ISSN = {1399-3054}, DOI = {10.1111/ppl.12891}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ppl.12891 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ppl.12891 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/ppl.12891}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1921, author = {Haensler, Andreas and Saeed, Fahad and Jacob, Daniela}, title = {Assessing the robustness of projected precipitation changes over central Africa on the basis of a multitude of global and regional climate projections}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {121}, number = {2}, pages = {349-363}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-013-0863-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0863-8}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1922, author = {Hagos, S. and Lunde, T. and Mariam, D. H. and Woldehanna, T. and Lindtjorn, B.}, title = {Climate change, crop production and child under nutrition in Ethiopia; a longitudinal panel study}, journal = {BMC Public Health}, volume = {14}, pages = {884}, keywords = {Child Child Nutritional Physiological Phenomena *Climate Change *Crops, Agricultural/growth & development Ethiopia/epidemiology Female Humans Longitudinal Studies Male Models, Theoretical Nutrition Disorders/*epidemiology/prevention & control Rain Starvation}, ISSN = {1471-2458}, DOI = {10.1186/1471-2458-14-884}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4158109/pdf/12889_2014_Article_7013.pdf}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1923, author = {Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel and Tang, Qiuhong and Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad and Liu, Xingcai and Gebremicael, T. G. and Leng, Guoyong and Kebede, Asfaw and Xu, Ximeng and Yun, Xiaobo}, title = {Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa}, journal = {Earth's Future}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {e2020EF001502}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502}, abstract = {Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011?2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041?2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071?2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the ?dry gets drier and wet gets wetter? paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.}, keywords = {SPI SPEI drought East Africa uncertainty climate change}, ISSN = {2328-4277}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1924, author = {Hall, Kevin and Meiklejohn, Ian and Arocena, Joselito}, title = {The thermal responses of rock art pigments: Implications for rock art weathering in southern Africa}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {91}, number = {1}, pages = {132-145}, abstract = {The San rock art of southern Africa is an international heritage subject to degradation and loss resulting from weathering. The paintings occur within rock shelters, where many are exposed to direct solar radiation for varying periods, rather than occurring in dark caves. As part of a study on the factors thought to be impacting weathering, data were collected pertaining to rock and pigment temperatures as well as humidity within the rock shelters. In addition, XRD analyses were undertaken on pigment samples, and the pigment to rock and pigment to pigment contacts were investigated by means of SEM. Pigments were found to be composed of ferric oxide (the ochre) and a gypsum-clay mix (the white) and to occur as a layer on top of, rather than penetrating into, the sandstone. Noncontact infrared sensors were used to monitor the temperatures of the actual pigments while micro-thermocouples to monitor the surrounding (nonpainted) rock surfaces. Thermal data show that there are significant differences between the white and the ochre pigments, both in terms of actual temperatures and short-term thermal responses. Noticeably, the white paint exhibits (relatively) large thermal fluctuations, as compared to the ochre or the rock, over the 20-s to 1-min timescale; these thermal variations may induce pigment-to-pigment stresses within the painting. The pigmented areas also exhibit different temperatures to the surrounding paint-free rock, suggesting that there may be both within-painting and between painting and rock (including the rock beneath the painting) stresses that can lead to degradation. Humidity data were found to be inadequate for any meaningful evaluation of the moisture conditions.}, keywords = {Rock art Pigment temperatures Infrared thermometry Weathering Thermal stresses}, ISSN = {0169-555X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.02.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X07000530}, year = {2007}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN1925, author = {Hallegatte, Stephane and Bangalore, Mook and Bonzanigo, Laura and Fay, Marianne and Kane, Tamaro and Narloch, Ulf and Rozenberg, Julie and Treguer, David and Vogt-Schilb, Adrien}, title = {"Shock Waves" Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty}, publisher = {The World Bank,}, address = {Washington, DC}, series = {Climate Change and Development Series}, pages = {227}, ISBN = { 978-1-4648-0674-2}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5}, url = {https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22787 }, year = {2016}, type = {Book} } @techreport{RN1926, author = {Hallegatte, Stephane and Brandon, Carter and Damania, Richard and Lang, Yunziyi and Roome, John and Rozenberg, Julie and Tall, Arame}, title = {The Economics of (and Obstacles to) Aligning Development and Climate Change Adaptation: A World Bank Group Contribution to the Global Commission on Adaptation}, institution = {Global Commission on Adaptation}, url = {https://gca.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/18_WP_GCA_Economics_1001_final.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1927, author = {Hallegatte, Stephane and Rozenberg, Julie}, title = {Climate change through a poverty lens}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {250-256}, abstract = {The economic impact of climate change has typically been considered at regional or national levels. This Perspective assesses impacts at household level to determine effects on poverty and the poor. It shows how rapid development could reduce these impacts.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3253}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3253}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1928, author = {Hambira, Wame L. and Saarinen, Jarkko}, title = {Policy-makers’ perceptions of the tourism–climate change nexus: Policy needs and constraints in Botswana}, journal = {Development Southern Africa}, volume = {32}, number = {3}, pages = {350-362}, keywords = {Botswana adaptation climate change development nature-based tourism policy}, DOI = {10.1080/0376835X.2015.1010716}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2015.1010716}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1929, author = {Hambira, Wame L. and Saarinen, Jarkko and Moses, Oliver}, title = {Climate change policy in a world of uncertainty: changing environment, knowledge, and tourism in Botswana}, journal = {African Geographical Review}, volume = {39}, number = {3}, pages = {252-266}, ISSN = {1937-6812 2163-2642}, DOI = {10.1080/19376812.2020.1719366}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1930, author = {Hamed, Younes and Hadji, Rihab and Redhaounia, Belgacem and Zighmi, Karim and Bâali, Fathi and El Gayar, Attiya}, title = {Climate impact on surface and groundwater in North Africa: a global synthesis of findings and recommendations}, journal = {Euro-Mediterranean Journal for Environmental Integration}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, ISSN = {2365-6433 2365-7448}, DOI = {10.1007/s41207-018-0067-8}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1931, author = {Han, Fan and Cook, Kerry H. and Vizy, Edward K.}, title = {Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, volume = {53}, number = {5}, pages = {2757-2777}, abstract = {A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1932, author = {Hannah, Lee and Roehrdanz, Patrick R. and Marquet, Pablo A. and Enquist, Brian J. and Midgley, Guy and Foden, Wendy and Lovett, Jon C. and Corlett, Richard T. and Corcoran, Derek and Butchart, Stuart H. M. and Boyle, Brad and Feng, Xiao and Maitner, Brian and Fajardo, Javier and McGill, Brian J. and Merow, Cory and Morueta-Holme, Naia and Newman, Erica A. and Park, Daniel S. and Raes, Niels and Svenning, Jens-Christian}, title = {30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%}, journal = {Ecography}, volume = {43}, number = {7}, pages = {943-953}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05166}, abstract = {Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post-2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area.}, keywords = {area-based conservation biodiversity climate change conservation planning extinction risk}, ISSN = {0906-7590}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05166}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05166}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1933, author = {Hansen, James and Furlow, John and Goddard, Lisa and Nissan, Hannah and Vaughan, Cathy and Rose, Alison and Fiondella, Francesco and Braun, Mélody and Steynor, Anna and Jack, Christopher and Chinowsky, Paul and Thomson, Madeleine and Baethgen, Walter and Dinku, Tufa and Senato, Yirgu and Phuong, Minh and Huq, Saleemul and Ndiaye, Ousmane}, title = {Scaling Climate Services to Enable Effective Adaptation Action}, month = {2019}, url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10568/105763}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1934, author = {Hansen, James and Hellin, Jon and Rosenstock, Todd and Fisher, Eleanor and Cairns, Jill and Stirling, Clare and Lamanna, Christine and van Etten, Jacob and Rose, Alison and Campbell, Bruce}, title = {Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction}, journal = {Agricultural Systems}, volume = {172}, pages = {28-46}, abstract = {Climate variability is a major source of risk to smallholder farmers and pastoralists, particularly in dryland regions. A growing body of evidence links climate-related risk to the extent and the persistence of rural poverty in these environments. Stochastic shocks erode smallholder farmers' long-term livelihood potential through loss of productive assets. The resulting uncertainty impedes progress out of poverty by acting as a disincentive to investment in agriculture – by farmers, rural financial services, value chain institutions and governments. We assess evidence published in the last ten years that a set of production technologies and institutional options for managing risk can stabilize production and incomes, protect assets in the face of shocks, enhance uptake of improved technologies and practices, improve farmer welfare, and contribute to poverty reduction in risk-prone smallholder agricultural systems. Production technologies and practices such as stress-adapted crop germplasm, conservation agriculture, and diversified production systems stabilize agricultural production and incomes and, hence, reduce the adverse impacts of climate-related risk under some circumstances. Institutional interventions such as index-based insurance and social protection through adaptive safety nets play a complementary role in enabling farmers to manage risk, overcome risk-related barriers to adoption of improved technologies and practices, and protect their assets against the impacts of extreme climatic events. While some research documents improvements in household welfare indicators, there is limited evidence that the risk-reduction benefits of the interventions reviewed have enabled significant numbers of very poor farmers to escape poverty. We discuss the roles that climate-risk management interventions can play in efforts to reduce rural poverty, and the need for further research on identifying and targeting environments and farming populations where improved climate risk management could accelerate efforts to reduce rural poverty.}, keywords = {Risk Poverty trap Resilience Production technology Insurancesocial protection}, ISSN = {0308-521X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.019}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X17307230}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1935, author = {Hansen, James W. and Vaughan, Catherine and Kagabo, Desire M. and Dinku, Tufa and Carr, Edward R. and Körner, Jana and Zougmoré, Robert B.}, title = {Climate Services Can Support African Farmers' Context-Specific Adaptation Needs at Scale}, journal = {Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems}, volume = {3}, number = {21}, pages = {1-16}, keywords = {Co-production,Scaling,Climate resilience,Climate risk management,Climate information,Agricultural extension,National meteorological services}, ISSN = {2571-581X}, DOI = {10.3389/fsufs.2019.00021}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00021}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1936, author = {Harari, Mariaflavia and Ferrara, Eliana La}, title = {Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis}, journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics}, volume = {100}, number = {4}, pages = {594-608}, ISSN = {0034-6535 1530-9142}, DOI = {10.1162/rest_a_00730}, url = {https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/rest_a_00730 %X We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the subnational level in Africa over 1997 to 2011 using a new gridded data set. We construct an original measure of agriculture-relevant weather shocks exploiting within-year variation in weather and in crop growing season and spatial variation in crop cover. Temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict are addressed through spatial econometric techniques. Negative shocks occurring during the growing season of local crops affect conflict incidence persistently, and local conflict spills over to neighboring cells. We use our estimates to trace the dynamic response to shocks and predict how future warming may affect violence.}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1937, author = {Harkin, K and Davies, D and Hyslop, M and Fluck, E and Wiggins, H and Merritt, M and Barker, O and Deery, L and McNeary, M and Westley, R}, title = {Impacts of climate change on cultural heritage}, journal = {MCCIP Sci. Rev}, volume = {16}, pages = {24-39}, DOI = {10.14465/2020.arc26.che}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1938, author = {Harmanny, Kina Stientje and Malek, Žiga}, title = {Adaptations in irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region: an overview and spatial analysis of implemented strategies}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1401-1416}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-019-01494-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01494-8}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1939, author = {Harrington, Luke J. and Frame, David J. and Fischer, Erich M. and Hawkins, Ed and Joshi, Manoj and Jones, Chris D.}, title = {Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {11}, number = {5}, pages = {055007}, abstract = {Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world’s poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1940, author = {Harrington, Luke J. and Frame, David J. and Hawkins, Ed and Joshi, Manoj}, title = {Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {114039}, abstract = {A common proxy for the adaptive capacity of a community to the impacts of future climate change is the range of climate variability which they have experienced in the recent past. This study presents an interpretation of such a framework for monthly temperatures. Our results demonstrate that emergence into genuinely ‘unfamiliar’ climates will occur across nearly all months of the year for low-income nations by the second half of the 21st century under an RCP8.5 warming scenario. However, high income countries commonly experience a large seasonal cycle, owing to their position in the middle latitudes: as a consequence, temperature emergence for transitional months translates only to more-frequent occurrences of heat historically associated with the summertime. Projections beyond 2050 also show low-income countries will experience 2–10 months per year warmer than the hottest month experienced in recent memory, while high-income countries will witness between 1–4 months per year hotter than any month previously experienced. While both results represent significant departures that may bring substantive societal impacts if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, they also demonstrate that spatial patterns of emergence will compound existing differences between high and low income populations, in terms of their capacity to adapt to unprecedented future temperatures.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa95ae}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa95ae}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1941, author = {Harrington, Luke J. and Otto, Friederike E. L.}, title = {Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {796-798}, abstract = {Extreme weather damage databases report no significant heatwave impacts in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900, yet the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them under climate change. Addressing this reporting discrepancy is crucial to assess the impacts of future extreme heat there.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-020-0851-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0851-8}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1942, author = {Harris, L. and Kleiber, D. and Goldin, J. and Darkwah, A. and Morinville, C.}, title = {Intersections of gender and water: comparative approaches to everyday gendered negotiations of water access in underserved areas of Accra, Ghana and Cape Town, South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Gender Studies}, volume = {26}, number = {5}, pages = {561-582}, ISSN = {0958-9236 1465-3869}, DOI = {10.1080/09589236.2016.1150819}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1943, author = {Harrison, Laura and Funk, Chris and Peterson, Pete}, title = {Identifying changing precipitation extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa with gauge and satellite products}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {14}, number = {8}, pages = {085007}, abstract = {Sparse gauge networks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) limit our ability to identify changing precipitation extremes with in situ observations. Given the potential for satellite and satellite-gauge precipitation products to help, we investigate how daily gridded gauge and satellite products compare for seven core climate change precipitation indices. According to a new gauge-only product, the Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN), there were notable changes in SSA precipitation characteristics between 1950 and 2013 in well-gauged areas. We examine these trends and how these vary for wet, intermediate, and dry areas. For a 31 year period of overlap, we compare REGEN data, other gridded products and three satellite products. Then for 1998–2013, we compare a set of 12 satellite products. Finally, we compare spatial patterns of 1983–2013 trends across all of SSA. Robust 1950–2013 trends indicate that in well-gauged areas extreme events became wetter, particularly in wet areas. Annual totals decreased due to fewer rain days. Between 1983 and 2013 there were positive trends in average precipitation intensity and annual maximum 1 d totals. These trends only represent 15% of SSA, however, and only one tenth of the main wet areas. Unfortunately, gauge and satellite products do not provide consensus for wet area trends. A promising result for identifying regional changes is that numerous satellite products do well at interannual variations in precipitation totals and number of rain days, even as well as some gauge-only products. Products are less accurate for dry spell length and average intensity and least accurate for annual maximum 1 d totals. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (3B42-V7) and Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2.0) ranked highest for multiple indices. Several products have seemingly unrealistic trends outside of the well-gauged areas that may be due to influence of non-stationary systematic biases. Social media abstract. Sparse data show increasing Africa rainfall extremes and satellite products fill some missing pieces.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab2cae}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2cae}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1944, author = {Harrod, Chris and Ramirez, Alejandro and Valbo-Jorgensen, John and Funge-Smith, Simon}, title = {How climate change impacts inland fisheries}, booktitle = {Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options}, editor = {Barange, Manuel and Bahri, Tarub and Beveridge, Malcolm and Cochrane, Kevern and Funge-Smith, Simon and Poulain, Florence }, series = {FAO FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE TECHNICAL PAPER}, publisher = {FAO}, address = {Rome}, chapter = {18}, pages = {375-391}, ISBN = {9789251306079}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/I9705EN/i9705en.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @inbook{RN1945, author = {Harrod, Chris and Ramirez, Alejandro and Valbo-Jorgensen, John and Smith, Simon Funge}, title = {Current anthropogenic stress and projected effect of climate change on global inland fisheries}, editor = {Barange, Manuel and Bahri, Tarub and Beveridge, Malcolm and Cochrane, Kevern and Funge-Smith, Simon}, publisher = {Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations}, address = {Rome}, pages = {393-448}, ISBN = {9789251306079}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @inbook{RN1946, author = {Harrod, Chris and Simmance, Fiona and Funge-Smith, Simon and Valbo-Jorgensen, John}, title = {Options and opportunities for supporting inland fisheries to cope with climate change adaptation in other sectors}, editor = {Barange, Manuel and Bahri, Tarub and Beveridge, Malcolm and Cochrane, Kevern and Funge-Smith, Simon}, publisher = {FAO, Rome}, pages = {567-584}, ISBN = {9789251306079}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1947, author = {Harvey, Blane and Jones, Lindsey and Cochrane, Logan and Singh, Roop}, title = {The evolving landscape of climate services in sub-Saharan Africa: What roles have NGOs played}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {157}, pages = {81–98}, ISSN = {15731480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-019-02410-z}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1948, author = {Hasegawa, Toshihiro and Wakatsuki, Hitomi and Ju, Hui and Vyas, Shalika and Nelson, Gerald C. and Farrell, Aidan and Deryng, Delphine and Meza, Francisco and Makowski, David}, title = {A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops}, journal = {bioRxiv}, pages = {2021.05.27.444762}, abstract = {Reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change on crop production are critical for assessing the sustainability of food systems. Global, regional, and site-specific crop simulation studies have been conducted for nearly four decades, representing valuable sources of information for climate change impact assessments. However, the wealth of data produced by these studies has not been made publicly available. Here, we develop a global dataset by consolidating previously published meta-analyses and data collected through a new literature search covering recent crop simulations. The new global dataset builds on 8314 simulations from 203 studies published between 1984 and 2020. It contains projected yields of four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) in 91 countries under major emission scenarios for the 21st century, with and without adaptation measures, along with geographical coordinates, current temperatures, local and global warming levels. This dataset provides a basis for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production and will facilitate the rapidly developing data-driven machine learning applications.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.}, DOI = {10.1101/2021.05.27.444762}, url = {http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/05/30/2021.05.27.444762.abstract}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1949, author = {Hastenrath, Stefan}, title = {Climatic forcing of glacier thinning on the mountains of equatorial East Africa}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {146-152}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1866}, abstract = {Abstract Equatorial glaciers are particularly climate sensitive components of the environment and their area shrinkage is spectacular, but the quantitative appraisal of climatic forcing requires information on net balance and changing ice thickness. Unique in the tropical belt, observations of mass budget and surface topography have been gathered by decades-long monitoring on Mount Kenya, particularly its largest, the Lewis Glacier. More limited information on ice thickness change is available for the summit of Kilimanjaro. Sensitivity analyses with constant precipitation, net allwave radiation and relative humidity serve to explore the sensible and latent heat transfer processes; humidity change riding on that of temperature providing the more substantial energy contribution to ablation. For Lewis Glacier it is found that with air some 0.7 °C cooler the mass budget could reach equilibrium. Observations on the secular evolution of air temperature and humidity in the areas of Mount Kenya and Rwenzori show compatible magnitudes, although contribution by radiative forcing cannot be excluded. For the summit of Kilimanjaro, above the mean freezing level, where ablation is limited to sublimation, turbulent heat transfer processes associated with temperature differences cannot account for the imbalance of the mass budget, and solar radiation forcing continues to be important for both the ice thinning and the lateral retreat of ice cliffs. Copyright ? 2009 Royal Meteorological Society}, keywords = {sensitivity analysis net balance ablation Lewis Glacier Mount Kenya Kilimanjaro Rwenzori}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1866}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1866}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1950, author = {Havelaar, Arie H and Kirk, Martyn D and Torgerson, Paul R and Gibb, Herman J and Hald, Tine and Lake, Robin J and Praet, Nicolas and Bellinger, David C and De Silva, Nilanthi R and Gargouri, Neyla}, title = {World Health Organization global estimates and regional comparisons of the burden of foodborne disease in 2010}, journal = {PLoS Medicine}, volume = {12}, number = {12}, pages = {e1001923}, ISSN = {1549-1277}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1951, author = {Headey, Derek D. and Jayne, T. S.}, title = {Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different?}, journal = {Food Policy}, volume = {48}, pages = {18-33}, ISSN = {03069192}, DOI = {10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.05.005}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1952, author = {Hearn, Gareth}, title = {Managing road transport in a world of changing climate and land use}, journal = {Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Municipal Engineer}, volume = {169}, number = {3}, pages = {146-159}, abstract = {Natural hazards of river flooding, erosion, landslides and high sediment loads in streams and rivers continue to pose a significant threat to the management of infrastructure, particularly road transport, in most parts of the world. In Asia and Africa, especially, these hazards are considered to be on the increase in response to climate and land use-related factors. Recent studies in Africa and especially Ethiopia lead to the conclusion that complex and poorly understood interactions between geology, climate change and land use change have given rise to increased levels of damage and disruption to transport infrastructure. The prognosis for the future is that these trends will continue and perhaps accelerate. Current policies tend to focus on the ‘proofing’ of infrastructure against future climate change, possibly without due regard to other factors that may be more important in the short–medium term. This is possibly counterproductive in situations where existing and future risks are determined more by geohazard uncertainty and design deficiencies, and the sometimes overriding effects of land use change and land management practices.}, keywords = {developing countries,disaster engineering,floods & floodworks}, DOI = {10.1680/muen.15.00009}, url = {https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/muen.15.00009}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1953, author = {Heilmayr, Robert and Echeverría, Cristian and Lambin, Eric F.}, title = {Impacts of Chilean forest subsidies on forest cover, carbon and biodiversity}, journal = {Nature Sustainability}, volume = {3}, number = {9}, pages = {701-709}, abstract = {In response to the important benefits forests provide, there is a growing effort to reforest the world. Past policies and current commitments indicate that many of these forests will be plantations. Since plantations often replace more carbon-rich or biodiverse land covers, this approach to forest expansion may undermine objectives of increased carbon storage and biodiversity. We use an econometric land use change model to simulate the carbon and biodiversity impacts of subsidy driven plantation expansion in Chile between 1986 and 2011. A comparison of simulations with and without subsidies indicates that payments for afforestation increased tree cover through expansion of plantations of exotic species but decreased the area of native forests. Chile’s forest subsidies probably decreased biodiversity without increasing total carbon stored in aboveground biomass. Carefully enforced safeguards on the conversion of natural ecosystems can improve both the carbon and biodiversity outcomes of reforestation policies.}, ISSN = {2398-9629}, DOI = {10.1038/s41893-020-0547-0}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0547-0}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1954, author = {Hellberg, Sofie}, title = {Scarcity as a means of governing: Challenging neoliberal hydromentality in the context of the South African drought}, journal = {Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {186-206}, abstract = {This article investigates the role of scarcity in water governance with a particular focus on South Africa. It applies a (green) governmentality perspective and argues that in neoliberal hydromentality scarcity is used as a regulatory device that governs people's water access. In South Africa, water governance and water scarcity have for a long time been central to the construction of a particular state with particular social purposes. While scarcity in the post-apartheid period has mainly been used as a means of governing the poor, the role of scarcity has in the recent water crisis been transformed; scarcity has increasingly become a material concern for all of society. Notwithstanding that the crisis is due not only to the lack of rain but also to political and institutional factors, it has, in media and policy circles, involved a preoccupation with scarcity as a physical phenomenon. Such a preoccupation risks obscuring the reasons why poorer populations have long suffered from the lack of water. At the same time, the article contends, the current crisis presents South Africa with an opportunity for revisiting water scarcity as a technology of governing in creating a more sustainable and equitable water allocation.}, ISSN = {2514-8486}, DOI = {10.1177/2514848619853551}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848619853551}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1955, author = {Hempson, Gareth P. and Archibald, Sally and Bond, William J.}, title = {The consequences of replacing wildlife with livestock in Africa}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {17196}, abstract = {The extirpation of native wildlife species and widespread establishment of livestock farming has dramatically distorted large mammal herbivore communities across the globe. Ecological theory suggests that these shifts in the form and the intensity of herbivory have had substantial impacts on a range of ecosystem processes, but for most ecosystems it is impossible to quantify these changes accurately. We address these challenges using species-level biomass data from sub-Saharan Africa for both present day and reconstructed historical herbivore communities. Our analyses reveal pronounced herbivore biomass losses in wetter areas and substantial biomass increases and functional type turnover in arid regions. Fire prevalence is likely to have been altered over vast areas where grazer biomass has transitioned to above or below the threshold at which grass fuel reduction can suppress fire. Overall, shifts in the functional composition of herbivore communities promote an expansion of woody cover. Total herbivore methane emissions have more than doubled, but lateral nutrient diffusion capacity is below 5% of past levels. The release of fundamental ecological constraints on herbivore communities in arid regions appears to pose greater threats to ecosystem function than do biomass losses in mesic regions, where fire remains the major consumer.}, ISSN = {2045-2322}, DOI = {10.1038/s41598-017-17348-4}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17348-4}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1956, author = {Henderson, J. and Storeygard, Adam and Deichmann, Uwe}, title = {50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change}, journal = {World Bank Policy Research Working Paper}, number = {6925}, DOI = {10.1596/1813-9450-6925}, url = {http://econ.worldbank.org.}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1957, author = {Hendrix, Cullen S.}, title = {The streetlight effect in climate change research on Africa}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {43}, pages = {137-147}, keywords = {Africa Civil liberties Climate change Great Britain Scientific inquiry}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.01.009}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1958, author = {Hendrix, Cullen S. and Salehyan, Idean}, title = {Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {35-50}, keywords = {Africa,conflict,environment,protest,rainfall,rioting}, ISSN = {0022-3433 1460-3578}, DOI = {10.1177/0022343311426165}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343311426165}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1959, author = {Henry, Sabine and Schoumaker, Bruno and Beauchemin, Cris}, title = {The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso}, journal = {Population and Environment}, volume = {25}, number = {5}, pages = {423-460}, ISSN = {1573-7810}, DOI = {10.1023/B:POEN.0000036928.17696.e8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POEN.0000036928.17696.e8}, year = {2004}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1960, author = {Henseler, Martin and Schumacher, Ingmar}, title = {The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {154}, number = {3}, pages = {417-433}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-019-02441-6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02441-6}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1961, author = {Hepburn, Cameron and O’Callaghan, Brian and Stern, Nicholas and Stiglitz, Joseph and Zenghelis, Dimitri}, title = {Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?}, journal = {Oxford Review of Economic Policy}, volume = {36}, number = {Supplement_1}, pages = {S359-S381}, keywords = {COVID-19 E65 Q5 Q54 climate change fiscal stimulus green recovery JEL classification: E62}, DOI = {10.1093/oxrep/graa015}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/36/Supplement_1/S359/5832003}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1962, author = {Hermans-Neumann, Kathleen and Priess, Joerg and Herold, Martin}, title = {Human migration, climate variability, and land degradation: hotspots of socio-ecological pressure in Ethiopia}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {17}, number = {5}, pages = {1479-1492}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-017-1108-6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1108-6}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1963, author = {Herrero, M. and Addison, J. and Bedelian, C. and Carabine, E. and Havlik, P. and Henderson, B. and Van De Steeg, J. and Thornton, P. K.}, title = {Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation}, journal = {Rev Sci Tech}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {417-433}, keywords = {*Adaptation, Biological Animal Husbandry/*methods/trends Animals *Climate Change Humans Knowledge Marketing Social Support Technology Adaptation Climate change Food security Institution Livestock Pastoralism Resilience Vulnerability}, ISSN = {0253-1933 (Print) 0253-1933 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.20506/rst.35.2.2533}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27917982}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1964, author = {Herslund, Lise Byskov and Jalayer, Fatemeh and Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie and Jørgensen, Gertrud and Kabisch, Sigrun and Kombe, Wilbard and Lindley, Sarah and Nyed, Patrik Karlsson and Pauleit, Stephan and Printz, Andreas and Vedeld, Trond}, title = {A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {149-172}, abstract = {In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.}, ISSN = {1573-0840}, DOI = {10.1007/s11069-015-1856-x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1856-x}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1965, author = {Hertig, E. and Seubert, S. and Paxian, A. and Vogt, G. and Paeth, H. and Jacobeit, J.}, title = {Statistical modelling of extreme precipitation indices for the Mediterranean area under future climate change}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {34}, number = {4}, pages = {1132-1156}, keywords = {climate change statistical downscaling generalized linear models extreme precipitation mediterranean area generalized linear-models large-scale downscaling precipitation european climate change scenarios simulations variability rainfall region temperature}, ISSN = {08998418}, DOI = {10.1002/joc.3751}, url = {://WOS:000332833900014}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1966, author = {Heubes, Jonathan and Kühn, Ingolf and König, Konstantin and Wittig, Rüdiger and Zizka, Georg and Hahn, Karen}, title = {Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, volume = {38}, number = {12}, pages = {2248-2258}, keywords = {Africa bioclimatic envelope models climate change desertification forest degradation generalized additive model human impact species distribution modelling}, ISSN = {1365-2699}, DOI = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1967, author = {Hidalgo, Manuel and Mihneva, Vesselina and Vasconcellos, Marcelo and Bernal, Miguel}, title = {Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptations: Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea marine fisheries}, institution = {FAO}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/i9705en/I9705EN.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1968, author = {Hill, M. P. and Bertelsmeier, C. and Clusella-Trullas, S. and Garnas, J. and Robertson, M. P. and Terblanche, J. S.}, title = {Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change}, journal = {Biological Invasions}, volume = {18}, number = {4}, pages = {1105-1119}, ISSN = {1387-3547 1573-1464}, DOI = {10.1007/s10530-016-1078-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10530-016-1078-5}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1969, author = {Himanen, Sari J. and Mäkinen, Hanna and Rimhanen, Karoliina and Savikko, Riitta}, title = {Engaging Farmers in Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Assessing Intercropping as a Means to Support Farm Adaptive Capacity}, journal = {Agriculture}, volume = {6}, number = {3}, abstract = {Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable and adaptation-prone sources of livelihood facing climate change. Joint adaptation planning by farmers and researchers can help develop practically feasible and environmentally and economically sound adaptation actions as well as encourage the proactive building of farm adaptive capacity. Here, the perceptions of Finnish farmers and rural stakeholders regarding intercropping, the cultivation of two or more crop genotypes together in time and space, as a means to prepare for climate change, were collected in an open workshop. Our aim was to identify the potentials and challenges associated with intercropping, its role as an adaptation strategy, and in farm adaptive capacity. Qualitative analysis revealed better yield security, increased nutrient and protein self-sufficiency, soil conservation and maintenance, reduced pathogen pressure and regulation of water dynamics as the main perceived potentials of intercropping. Potentials relating to the farm economy and environment were also recognized. The main challenges associated with intercropping were related to the lack of information on crop variety performance and optimal yielding in mixtures, industry and policy requirements for seed purity, more complicated crop management and harvesting, and the economic risks associated with experimenting with novel mixtures. Nitrogen-fixing legumes; deep-rooted species, such as lucerne (Medicago sativa L.); special crops, such as herbs in forage mixtures; and autumn-sown winter oilseeds and cereals were highlighted as the most promising intercrops. Because the recognized potentials relate to the safeguarding of field cropping from anticipated climate change and the associated weather variability, we conclude that intercropping can serve as one adaptation strategy to strengthen the adaptive capacity of Finnish farms. However, assuring markets and policies that allow the development of intercropping, performing experiments to assess the benefits and implement options in practice, and providing farmers and farm advisors with more knowledge on the method represent the critical prerequisites for the broader adoption of intercropping.}, keywords = {adaptation planning adaptive capacity climate change ecological intensification intercropping legumes yield security}, ISSN = {2077-0472}, DOI = {10.3390/agriculture6030034}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1970, author = {Hinkel, Jochen and Brown, Sally and Exner, Lars and Nicholls, Robert J. and Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and Kebede, Abiy S.}, title = {Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {207-224}, abstract = {This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1971, author = {Hirvonen, Kalle}, title = {Temperature Changes, Household Consumption, and Internal Migration: Evidence from Tanzania}, journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, volume = {98}, number = {4}, pages = {1230-1249}, ISSN = {0002-9092}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaw042}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1093/ajae/aaw042}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1972, author = {Hlalele, BM and Mokhatle, IM and Motlogeloa, RT}, title = { Assessing Economic Impacts of Agricultural Drought: A Case of Thaba Nchu, South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Earth Science and Climate Change}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {327}, DOI = {10.4172/2157-7617.1000327}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1973, author = {Hobday, Alistair J and Alexander, Lisa V and Perkins, Sarah E and Smale, Dan A and Straub, Sandra C and Oliver, Eric CJ and Benthuysen, Jessica A and Burrows, Michael T and Donat, Markus G and Feng, Ming}, title = {A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves}, journal = {Progress in Oceanography}, volume = {141}, pages = {227-238}, ISSN = {0079-6611}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1974, author = {Hodgson, Geoffrey M.}, title = {What Is the Essence of Institutional Economics?}, journal = {Journal of Economic Issues}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {317-329}, ISSN = {0021-3624}, DOI = {10.1080/00213624.2000.11506269}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2000.11506269}, year = {2000}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1975, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Cai, R and Poloczanska, ES and Brewer, PG and Sundby, S and Hilmi, K}, title = {The Ocean}, institution = {USA: Cambridge University Press}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap30_FINAL.pdf}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1976, author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Jacob, D and Taylor, M and Bindi, M and Brown, S and Camilloni, I and Diedhiou, A and Djalante, R and Ebi, K and Engelbrecht, F and Guiot, J and Hijioka, Y and Mehrotra, S and Payne, A and Seneviratne, SI and Thomas, A and Warren, R and Zhou, G}, title = {Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1977, author = {Hoffmann, Roman and Dimitrova, Anna and Muttarak, Raya and Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus and Peisker, Jonas}, title = {A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, pages = {904-912}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1978, author = {Hole, D. G. and Willis, S. G. and Pain, D. J. and Fishpool, L. D. and Butchart, S. H. and Collingham, Y. C. and Rahbek, C. and Huntley, B.}, title = {Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network}, journal = {Ecol Lett}, volume = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {420-31}, keywords = {Africa South of the Sahara Animals Birds/*physiology Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods *Demography *Ecosystem Geography *Greenhouse Effect *Models, Theoretical Species Specificity}, ISSN = {1461-0248 (Electronic) 1461-023X (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19379136}, year = {2009}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1979, author = {Hooli, Lauri Johannes}, title = {Resilience of the poorest: coping strategies and indigenous knowledge of living with the floods in Northern Namibia}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {16}, number = {3}, pages = {695-707}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-015-0782-5}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0782-5}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1980, author = {Hope, Mat}, title = {Cyclones in Mozambique may reveal humanitarian challenges of responding to a new climate reality}, journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health}, volume = {3}, number = {8}, pages = {e338-e339}, ISSN = {2542-5196}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30131-7}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1981, author = {Houéménou, Honoré and Tweed, Sarah and Dobigny, Gauthier and Mama, Daouda and Alassane, Abdoukarim and Silmer, Roland and Babic, Milanka and Ruy, Stéphane and Chaigneau, Alexis and Gauthier, Philippe and Socohou, Akilou and Dossou, Henri-Joël and Badou, Sylvestre and Leblanc, Marc}, title = {Degradation of groundwater quality in expanding cities in West Africa. A case study of the unregulated shallow aquifer in Cotonou}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {582}, pages = {124438}, abstract = {In Cotonou, as in many expanding West African cities, major population growth and infrastructural development has not kept up with informal settlement development onto floodable plains and marshes. The population of the slum, which makes up about 60% of the city’s inhabitants, is highly disadvantaged and vulnerable to rising sea levels, flooding, sanitation and waste management issues. However, the risks associated with the use of contaminated shallow groundwater for domestic purposes are less recognised. Our study demonstrates that, in many instances, the cheaper option of the use of shallow groundwater from the coastal Quaternary aquifer for domestic purposes represents a significant risk for the poorer residents of Cotonou through the voluntary (drinking) or non-volontary (dish washing, cooking) consumption of this unmonitored and untreated water resource. In the 3 neighbourhoods surveyed, environmental tracers (major ions, Cl/Br molar ratios and stables isotopes) showed that this shallow aquifer is degraded by seawater intrusion as well as septic and sewerage contamination. In particular, the higher NOx concentrations correspond to ranges associated with sewerage and septic tank effluent pollution and the major ion concentrations and δ2H–δ18O signatures showed that high salinity values are where groundwater mixes with saline Lake Nokoue water. The population using this resource from local wells should be made aware of seasonal changes in groundwater contamination and potential health risks associated with sewerage and septic tank contamination.}, keywords = {Groundwater Sewerage and septic tank contamination Salinization Urbanization Recharge and discharge}, ISSN = {0022-1694}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124438}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419311734}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1982, author = {Hove, Mediel and Gweme, Thomas}, title = {Women's food security and conservation farming in Zaka District-Zimbabwe}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {149}, pages = {18-29}, abstract = {Changes in rainfall patterns because of climate alteration amongst other factors contributed towards a decline in food security in Zimbabwe's Zaka District-Ward 31. In response, women in Ward 31 adopted conservation agriculture since the 2005/6 agricultural season to address food insecurity and other problems experienced in the crop production system. The research was designed to evaluate the extent to which conservation agriculture led to increased food security in the semi-arid area. The researchers used the mixed method approach and collected data through key informant interviews, Focus Group Discussions and observations. It was evident from the research that the farmers who practised conservation agriculture whilst correctly following most of the prescribed components and engaging the relevant strategies were able to increase their food security in the dry part of the district. It concludes that female farmers constrained by: fencing, long dry spells and labour were incapacitated to effectively implement conservation agriculture hence failed to attain food security.}, keywords = {Women Food security Zaka District Conservation farming Zimbabwe}, ISSN = {0140-1963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2017.10.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196317301921}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1983, author = {Hoveka, L. N. and Bezeng, B. S. and Yessoufou, K. and Boatwright, J. S. and Van der Bank, M.}, title = {Effects of climate change on the future distributions of the top five freshwater invasive plants in South Africa}, journal = {South African Journal of Botany}, volume = {102}, pages = {33-38}, keywords = {Aquatic invasive plants Ecological niche modeling Freshwater ecosystems Range contraction Range expansion}, ISSN = {02546299}, DOI = {10.1016/j.sajb.2015.07.017}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0254629915003580}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1984, author = {Howard, Guy and Calow, Roger and Macdonald, Alan and Bartram, Jamie}, title = {Climate Change and Water and Sanitation: Likely Impacts and Emerging Trends for Action}, journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {253-276}, ISSN = {1543-5938}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085856}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085856}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1985, author = {Howells, Mark and Hermann, Sebastian and Welsch, Manuel and Bazilian, Morgan and Segerström, Rebecka and Alfstad, Thomas and Gielen, Dolf and Rogner, Holger and Fischer, Guenther and van Velthuizen, Harrij and Wiberg, David and Young, Charles and Roehrl, R. Alexander and Mueller, Alexander and Steduto, Pasquale and Ramma, Indoomatee}, title = {Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {3}, number = {7}, pages = {621-626}, abstract = {The use of land, energy and water can contribute to climate change, which, in turn, affects the systems that provide those resources. Efficient resource management can limit climate impacts and support adaption practices. An approach integrating resource assessments and policy-making is proposed to manage land, energy and water effectively.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate1789}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1789}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1986, author = {Hsiang, S. M. and Burke, M. and Miguel, E.}, title = {Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict}, journal = {Science}, volume = {341}, number = {6151}, pages = {1235367}, keywords = {*Climate Climate Change/*statistics & numerical data *Conflict, Psychological Crime/*statistics & numerical data Humans *Knowledge Discovery Violence/statistics & numerical data}, ISSN = {1095-9203 (Electronic) 0036-8075 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1126/science.1235367}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24031020}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN1987, author = {Hsiang, Solomon M. and Burke, M. and Miguel, E.}, title = {Reconciling Temperature-conflict Results in Kenya}, institution = {UC Berkeley}, url = {http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9ct8g2zr}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN1988, author = {Hsiang, Solomon M and Jina, Amir S}, title = {The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: Evidence from 6,700 cyclones}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, DOI = {10.3386/w20352}, url = {https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20352/w20352.pdf}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @article{RN1989, author = {Hu, Lisuo and Luo, Jing-Jia and Huang, Gang and Wheeler, Matthew C}, title = {Synoptic Features Responsible for Heat Waves in Central Africa, a Region with Strong Multidecadal Trends}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {32}, number = {22}, pages = {7951-7970}, ISSN = {0894-8755}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0807.1}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1990, author = {Hua, Wenjian and Zhou, Liming and Chen, Haishan and Nicholson, Sharon E. and Raghavendra, Ajay and Jiang, Yan}, title = {Possible causes of the Central Equatorial African long-term drought}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {11}, number = {12}, pages = {124002}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124002}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124002}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1991, author = {Hubau, Wannes and Lewis, Simon L. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Affum-Baffoe, Kofi and Beeckman, Hans and Cuní-Sanchez, Aida and Daniels, Armandu K. and Ewango, Corneille E. N. and Fauset, Sophie and Mukinzi, Jacques M. and Sheil, Douglas and Sonké, Bonaventure and Sullivan, Martin J. P. and Sunderland, Terry C. H. and Taedoumg, Hermann and Thomas, Sean C. and White, Lee J. T. and Abernethy, Katharine A. and Adu-Bredu, Stephen and Amani, Christian A. and Baker, Timothy R. and Banin, Lindsay F. and Baya, Fidèle and Begne, Serge K. and Bennett, Amy C. and Benedet, Fabrice and Bitariho, Robert and Bocko, Yannick E. and Boeckx, Pascal and Boundja, Patrick and Brienen, Roel J. W. and Brncic, Terry and Chezeaux, Eric and Chuyong, George B. and Clark, Connie J. and Collins, Murray and Comiskey, James A. and Coomes, David A. and Dargie, Greta C. and de Haulleville, Thales and Kamdem, Marie Noel Djuikouo and Doucet, Jean-Louis and Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane and Feldpausch, Ted R. and Fofanah, Alusine and Foli, Ernest G. and Gilpin, Martin and Gloor, Emanuel and Gonmadje, Christelle and Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie and Hall, Jefferson S. and Hamilton, Alan C. and Harris, David J. and Hart, Terese B. and Hockemba, Mireille B. N. and Hladik, Annette and Ifo, Suspense A. and Jeffery, Kathryn J. and Jucker, Tommaso and Yakusu, Emmanuel Kasongo and Kearsley, Elizabeth and Kenfack, David and Koch, Alexander and Leal, Miguel E. and Levesley, Aurora and Lindsell, Jeremy A. and Lisingo, Janvier and Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela and Lovett, Jon C. and Makana, Jean-Remy and Malhi, Yadvinder and Marshall, Andrew R. and Martin, Jim and Martin, Emanuel H. and Mbayu, Faustin M. and Medjibe, Vincent P. and Mihindou, Vianet and Mitchard, Edward T. A. and Moore, Sam and Munishi, Pantaleo K. T. and Bengone, Natacha Nssi and Ojo, Lucas and Ondo, Fidèle Evouna and Peh, Kelvin S. H. and Pickavance, Georgia C. and Poulsen, Axel Dalberg and Poulsen, John R. and Qie, Lan and Reitsma, Jan and Rovero, Francesco and Swaine, Michael D. and Talbot, Joey and Taplin, James and Taylor, David M. and Thomas, Duncan W. and Toirambe, Benjamin and Mukendi, John Tshibamba and Tuagben, Darlington and Umunay, Peter M. and van der Heijden, Geertje M. F. and others }, title = {Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {579}, number = {7797}, pages = {80-87}, ISSN = {1476-4687}, DOI = {10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2035-0}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN1992, author = {Huber-Lee, Annette and Galaitsi, Stephanie and Brown, Casey and Seid, Abdulkarim and Hughes, Denis and Joyce, Brian}, title = {Reference Investment Scenario}, booktitle = {Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors}, editor = {Cervigni, Raffaello and Liden, Rikard and Neumann, James E. and Strzepek, Kenneth M.}, publisher = {The World Bank}, address = {Washington, DC}, chapter = {4}, pages = {77-83}, ISBN = {978-1-4648-0466-3}, DOI = {10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3_ch4}, year = {2015}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN1993, author = {Hufe, Paul and Heuermann, Daniel F.}, title = {The local impacts of large-scale land acquisitions: a review of case study evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Journal of Contemporary African Studies}, volume = {35}, number = {2}, pages = {168-189}, ISSN = {0258-9001 1469-9397}, DOI = {10.1080/02589001.2017.1307505}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1994, author = {Hughes, D. A.}, title = {Facing a future water resources management crisis in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}, volume = {23}, ISSN = {22145818}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100600}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1995, author = {Hughes, Terry P. and Anderson, Kristen D. and Connolly, Sean R. and Heron, Scott F. and Kerry, James T. and Lough, Janice M. and Baird, Andrew H. and Baum, Julia K. and Berumen, Michael L. and Bridge, Tom C. and Claar, Danielle C. and Eakin, C. Mark and Gilmour, James P. and Graham, Nicholas A. J. and Harrison, Hugo and Hobbs, Jean-Paul A. and Hoey, Andrew S. and Hoogenboom, Mia and Lowe, Ryan J. and McCulloch, Malcolm T. and Pandolfi, John M. and Pratchett, Morgan and Schoepf, Verena and Torda, Gergely and Wilson, Shaun K.}, title = {Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene}, journal = {Science}, volume = {359}, number = {6371}, pages = {80}, abstract = {Coral bleaching occurs when stressful conditions result in the expulsion of the algal partner from the coral. Before anthropogenic climate warming, such events were relatively rare, allowing for recovery of the reef between events. Hughes et al. looked at 100 reefs globally and found that the average interval between bleaching events is now less than half what it was before. Such narrow recovery windows do not allow for full recovery. Furthermore, warming events such as El Niño are warmer than previously, as are general ocean conditions. Such changes are likely to make it more and more difficult for reefs to recover between stressful events.Science, this issue p. 80Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Niña conditions than they were during El Niño events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aan8048}, url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6371/80.abstract}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1996, author = {Huldén, Lena and McKitrick, Ross and Huldén, Larry}, title = {Average household size and the eradication of malaria}, journal = {J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A Stat. Soc.}, volume = {177}, number = {3}, pages = {725-742}, ISSN = {0964-1998}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/43965422 https://www.jstor.org/stable/43965422 https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/43965422.pdf}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1997, author = {Hulme, Mike}, title = {Climate Change and the Significance of Religion}, journal = {Economic and Political Weekly}, volume = {52}, number = {28}, pages = {14-17}, url = {http://www.epw.in/journal/2017/28/commentary/climate-change-and-signifi-cance-religion.html}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1998, author = {Hummel, Diana}, title = {Climate change, land degradation and migration in Mali and Senegal – some policy implications}, journal = {Migration and Development}, volume = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {211-233}, ISSN = {2163-2324}, DOI = {10.1080/21632324.2015.1022972}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2015.1022972}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN1999, author = {Humphrey, G. J. and Gillson, L. and Ziervogel, G.}, title = {How changing fire management policies affect fire seasonality and livelihoods}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {50}, number = {2}, pages = {475-491}, note = {Humphrey, Glynis Joy Gillson, Lindsey Ziervogel, Gina eng Sweden Ambio. 2021 Feb;50(2):475-491. doi: 10.1007/s13280-020-01351-7. Epub 2020 Jun 10.}, abstract = {There is a long history of fire management in African savannas, but knowledge of historical and current use of fire is scarce in savanna-woodland biomes. This study explores past and present fire management practices and perceptions of the Khwe (former hunter-gatherers) and Mbukushu (agropastoralists) communities as well as government and non-government stakeholders in Bwabwata National Park in north-east Namibia. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were used in combination with satellite data (from 2000 to 2015), to investigate historical and current fire management dynamics. Results show that political dynamics in the region disrupted traditional fire practices, specifically a policy of fire suppression was initiated by colonial governments in 1888 and maintained during independence until 2005. Both the Khwe and Mbukushu communities use early season (i.e. between April and July) fires for diverse interrelated historical and current livelihood activities, and park management for managing late season fires. The Mbukushu community also use late season burns to prepare land for crops. In this study, we use a pyrogeographic framework to understand the human dimension of fires. This study reveals how today's fire management practices and policies, specifically the resurgence of early season burning are entrenched in the past. Understanding and acknowledging the social and cultural dynamics of fire, alongside participatory stakeholder engagement is critical for managing fires in the future.}, keywords = {Early burning Fire management Political history Pyrogeography Stakeholder engagement Traditional fire knowledge}, ISSN = {1654-7209 (Electronic) 0044-7447 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1007/s13280-020-01351-7}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32524508}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2000, author = {Hunter, N. B. and North, M. A. and Roberts, D. C. and Slotow, R.}, title = {A systematic map of responses to climate impacts in urban Africa}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {15}, number = {10}, pages = {103005}, abstract = {Over time African cities and their residents have responded to climate impacts in increasingly creative ways, based on local knowledge and available resources. Overviews of adaptation policy, plans and actions have largely been lacking for Africa, particularly at the local, city level. We applied a systematic map to assess what the human responses to climate impacts are in African cities, noting the climate drivers of these actions, the range of responses, where they have taken place, and who the actors are. Standardized, pre-selected search terms were used to systematically search peer-reviewed and grey literature, using Web of Science, Scopus, and Google. Publications were screened based on pre-approved inclusion criteria, and actions described in included articles were coded using categories from key conceptual framing papers on climate change adaptation. Of 2 042 peer-reviewed and 60 grey-literature publications, 252 underwent full-text screening, with 121 included for coding. We recorded 1 504 actions, taking place in 41 cities from 21 African countries, in response to various climate drivers. Anticipatory and reactive actions were taken by actors, from individuals to international agencies, and we highlighted successful adaptations, those taking advantage of climate impacts, and maladaptive actions. Combinations of climatic and non-climatic stimuli induced adaptive responses, which were frequently based on local knowledge, and provided a base upon which government action could build. Residents of informal settlements had less adaptive capacity than those in formal settlements, and government action could build their resilience. Since development is affected by climate impacts, climate change information should be integrated into development programmes.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab9d00}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9d00}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2001, author = {Hunter, Renée and Nordin, Krista and Thom, Mia}, title = {Inclusive insurance enhanced through the use of client data; typologies, use cases and adoption challenges}, institution = {insight2impact}, url = {https://cenfri.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Inclusive-insurance-enhanced-through-the-use-of-client-data_i2i-FSDA_October-2018_SINGLE.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2002, author = {Huntingford, Chris and Zelazowski, Przemyslaw and Galbraith, David and Mercado, Lina M. and Sitch, Stephen and Fisher, Rosie and Lomas, Mark and Walker, Anthony P. and Jones, Chris D. and Booth, Ben B. B. and Malhi, Yadvinder and Hemming, Debbie and Kay, Gillian and Good, Peter and Lewis, Simon L. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Atkin, Owen K. and Lloyd, Jon and Gloor, Emanuel and Zaragoza-Castells, Joana and Meir, Patrick and Betts, Richard and Harris, Phil P. and Nobre, Carlos and Marengo, Jose and Cox, Peter M.}, title = {Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {268-273}, abstract = {Assessing potential future carbon loss from tropical forests is important for evaluating the efficacy of programmes for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). An exploration of results from 22 climate models in conjunction with a land surface scheme suggests that in the Americas, Africa and Asia, the resilience of tropical forests to climate change is higher than expected, although uncertainties are large.}, ISSN = {1752-0908}, DOI = {10.1038/ngeo1741}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1741}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2003, author = {Huntjens, Patrick and Nachbar, Katharina }, title = {Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier for Human Disaster and Conflict. The Hague Institute for Global Justice}, url = {http://www.thehagueinstituteforglobaljustice.org/working-paper-9}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @book{RN2004, author = {Hurrell, J. W. and Kushnir, Y. and Ottersen, G. and Visbeck, M.}, title = {An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, volume = {134}, series = {The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact}, DOI = {doi:10.1029/134GM01}, year = {2003}, type = {Book} } @article{RN2005, author = {Ide, Tobias and Brzoska, Michael and Donges, Jonathan F. and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich}, title = {Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {62}, pages = {102063}, keywords = {Civil war Crisis Environment Hazard Peace Violence}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019307307}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2006, author = {IDMC}, title = {Global Report on Internal Displacement - GRID 2018}, institution = {Internal Displacment Monitoring Centre, Norwegian Refugee Council}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2007, author = {IDMC}, title = {Global Report on Internal Displacement GRID 2019}, institution = {Internal Displacement Monitoring Center}, month = {May 2019}, url = {https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2019/}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2008, author = {IDMC}, title = {Global Report on Internal Displacement GRID 2020. }, institution = {Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre,}, url = {https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/grid2021_idmc.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @misc{RN2009, author = {IDRC}, title = {Open Access Policy for IDRC-Funded Project Outputs}, volume = {2021}, number = {11 September 2021}, url = {https://www.idrc.ca/en/open-access-policy-idrc-funded-project-outputs}, year = {2021}, type = {Web Page} } @techreport{RN2010, author = {IEA}, title = {Africa Energy Outlook 2019}, month = {November 2019}, url = {https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2019}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2011, author = {IEA}, title = {Sustainable Recovery Tracker}, institution = {IEA}, url = {https://www.iea.org/reports/sustainable-recovery-tracker}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2012, author = {Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe}, title = {Drought Coping and Adaptation Strategies: Understanding Adaptations to Climate Change in Agro-pastoral Livestock Production in Makueni District, Kenya}, journal = {The European Journal of Development Research}, volume = {22}, number = {5}, pages = {623-642}, abstract = {Using drought as a lens, this article analyses how agro-pastoralists in Makueni district, Kenya adapt their livestock production to climate variability and change. Data were collected from a longitudinal survey of 127 agro-pastoral households. Approximately one-third of the households have inadequate feeds, and livestock diseases are major challenges during non-drought and drought periods. Agro-pastoralists’ responses to drought are reactive and mainly involve intensifying exploitation of resources and the commons. Proactive responses such as improving production resources are few. Poverty, limited responses to market dynamics and inadequate skills constrain adaptations. Many agro-pastoralists’ attachment to livestock deters livestock divestment, favouring disadvantageous sales that result in declining incomes. To improve adaptive capacity, interventions should expose agro-pastoralists to other forms of savings, incorporate agro-pastoralists as agents of change by building their capacity to provide extension services, and maintain infrastructure. Securing livestock mobility, pasture production and access is crucial under the variable social-ecological conditions.}, ISSN = {1743-9728}, DOI = {10.1057/ejdr.2010.39}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2010.39}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2013, author = {IFPRI}, title = {2016 Global Nutrition Report. From Promise to Impact: Ending Malnutrition by 2030}, institution = {International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)}, url = {http://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/130354/filename/130565.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2014, author = {IIED}, title = {Vulnerable Communities: Getting their Needs and Knowledge into Climate Policy}, institution = {International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)}, month = {November 2015}, url = {https://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/17328IIED.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2015, author = {Iizumi, Toshichika and Ali-Babiker, Imad-Eldin A. and Tsubo, Mitsuru and Tahir, Izzat S. A. and Kurosaki, Yasunori and Kim, Wonsik and Gorafi, Yasir S. A. and Idris, Amani A. M. and Tsujimoto, Hisashi}, title = {Rising temperatures and increasing demand challenge wheat supply in Sudan}, journal = {Nature Food}, volume = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {19-27}, abstract = {Climate warming poses challenges for food production at low latitudes, particularly in arid regions. Sudan, where wheat demand could triple by 2050, has the world’s hottest wheat-growing environments, and observed yield declines in hot seasons are prompting the national government to prepare for a warming of 1.5–4.2 °C. Using advanced crop modelling under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios, we show that despite the use of adjusted sowing dates and existing heat-tolerant varieties, by 2050, Sudan’s domestic production share may decrease from 16.0% to 4.5–12.2%. In the relatively cool northern region, yields will need to increase by 3.1–4.7% per year, at non-compounding rates, to meet demand. In the hot central and eastern regions, improvements in heat tolerance are essential, and yields must increase by 0.2–2.7% per year to keep pace with climate warming. These results indicate the potential contribution of climate change adaptation measures and provide targets for addressing the wheat supply challenge.}, ISSN = {2662-1355}, DOI = {10.1038/s43016-020-00214-4}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00214-4}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2016, author = {Iizumi, T. and Shen, Z. and Furuya, J. and Koizumi, T. and Furuhashi, G. and Kim, W. and Nishimori, M.}, title = {Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production}, journal = {Climate Research}, volume = {80}, number = {3}, pages = {203-218}, note = {10.3354/cr01605}, abstract = {ABSTRACT: Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from US$63 billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($8 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.}, url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v80/n3/p203-218/}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2017, author = {Iizumi, Toshichika and Shiogama, Hideo and Imada, Yukiko and Hanasaki, Naota and Takikawa, Hiroki and Nishimori, Motoki}, title = {Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {38}, number = {14}, pages = {5405-5417}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5818}, abstract = {The accumulated evidence indicates that agricultural production is being affected by climate change. However, most of the available evidence at a global scale is based on statistical regressions. Corroboration using independent methods, specifically process-based modelling, is important for improving our confidence in the evidence. Here, we estimate the impacts of climate change on the global average yields of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans for 1981?2010, relative to the preindustrial climate. We use the results of factual and non-warming counterfactual climate simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model that do and do not include anthropogenic forcings to climate systems, respectively, as inputs into a global gridded crop model. The results of a 100-member ensemble climate and crop simulation suggest that climate change has decreased the global mean yields of maize, wheat and soybeans by 4.1, 1.8 and 4.5%, respectively, relative to the counterfactual simulation (preindustrial climate), even when carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization and agronomic adjustments are considered. For rice, no significant impacts (?1.8%) are detected. The uncertainties in estimated yield impacts represented by the 90% probability interval that are derived from the ensemble members are ?8.5 to +0.5% for maize, ?8.4 to ?0.5% for soybeans, ?9.6 to +12.4% for rice and ??7.5 to +4.3% for wheat. Based on the yield impacts, the estimates of average annual production losses throughout the world for the most recent years of the study (2005?2009) account for 22.3 billion USD (B$) for maize, 6.5 B$ for soybeans, 0.8 B$ for rice and 13.6 B$ for wheat. Our assessment confirms that climate change has modulated recent yields and led to production losses, and our adaptations to date have not been sufficient to offset the negative impacts of climate change, particularly at lower latitudes.}, keywords = {climate change crop yields detection and attribution ensemble simulations losses and damages production losses}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5818}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5818}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2018, author = {ILEC and UNEP}, title = {Transboundary Lakes and Reservoirs: Status and Trends, Summary for Policy Makers.}, institution = {United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)}, url = {https://www.unep.org/resources/report/transboundary-lakes-and-reservoirs-status-and-future-trends-volume-2-lake-basins}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2020, author = {ILO}, title = {The employment Impact of climate change adaptation}, institution = {International Labour Organisation}, url = {https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_645572.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2019, author = {ILO}, title = {Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture}, institution = {International Labour Office}, url = {https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_626831.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2021, author = {ILO}, title = {Skills for a greener future: a global view}, institution = {International Labout Office}, url = {https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_732214.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2022, author = {Iloka Nnamdi, G.}, title = {Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction : an African perspective : original research}, journal = {Jamba : Journal of Disaster Risk Studies}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1-7}, DOI = {10.4102/jamba.v8i1.272}, url = {https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v8i1.272}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2023, author = {İlseven, Serkan and Aslanova, Fidan and Anakua, Mustafa M. A. and Laama, Isam Fathi G. and Aljwadi, Sobhi O. K. and Ayouz, Hesham}, title = {Attitude and risk perception of climate change in farming communities in Tripoli, Libya}, journal = {Chimica Oggi/Chemistry Today}, pages = {91-96}, keywords = {Agriculture,Attitude,Climate change,Farmers,Risk perception}, ISSN = {19738250}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2024, author = {Ingram, John}, title = {A food systems approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change}, journal = {Food Security}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, pages = {417-431}, abstract = {There is growing concern that satisfying societal demand for food over coming decades will be increasingly challenging. Much of the debate centres on increasing food production which has always been–and remains–an important strategy to alleviate food insecurity. However, despite the fact that more than enough food is currently produced per capita to adequately feed the global population, about 925 million people remained food insecure in 2010. Meeting future demand will be further complicated by deleterious changes in climate and other environmental factors (collectively termed ‘global environmental change’, GEC). This paper lays out a case for a food systems approach to research the complex food security/GEC arena and provides a number of examples of how this can help. These include (i) providing a framework for structuring dialogues aimed at enhancing food security and identifying the range of actors and other interested parties who should be involved; (ii) integrating analyses of the full set of food system activities (i.e. producing, storing, processing, packaging, trading and consuming food) with those of the food security outcomes i.e. stability of food access, utilisation and availability, and all their nine elements (rather than only food production); (iii) helping to both assess the impacts of GEC on food systems and identify feedbacks to the earth system from food system activities; (iv) helping to identify intervention points for enhancing food security and analysing synergies and trade-offs between food security, ecosystem services and social welfare outcomes of different adaptation pathways; and (v) highlighting where new research is needed.}, ISSN = {1876-4525}, DOI = {10.1007/s12571-011-0149-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0149-9}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN2025, author = {InsurResilience}, title = {Tripartite Agreement: A public-private partnership between BMZ, UNDP and IDF leveraging financing, expertise and risk capital for the fulfilment of Vision 2025}, publisher = {InsurResilience Global Partnership}, volume = {2021}, number = {30/08/2021}, url = {https://annualreport.insuresilience.org/tripartite-agreement/}, year = {2020}, type = {Web Page} } @misc{RN2026, author = {International Institute of Water Management}, title = {Rainfed Agriculture Summary}, url = {https://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/issues/rainfed-agriculture/summary/}, year = {2019}, type = {Web Page} } @techreport{RN2027, author = {IPBES}, title = {Summary for policymakers of the regional assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services for Africa of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.}, institution = {IPBES secretariat}, url = {https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/spm_africa_2018_digital.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2028, author = {IPBES}, title = {IPBES workshop on biodiversity and pandemics: Executive summary}, url = {https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2020-10/IPBES%20Pandemics%20Workshop%20Report%20Executive%20Summary%20Final.pdf.}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2029, author = {IPCC}, title = {Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}, institution = {IPCC}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @inbook{RN2032, author = {IPCC}, title = {Annex I: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R. (ed.)]}, booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty}, editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Pörtner, H. O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P. R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and Péan, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J. B. R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M. I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.}, chapter = {AI}, pages = {In press}, ISBN = {9789291691517}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Book Section} } @techreport{RN2030, author = {IPCC}, title = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/download/}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2031, author = {IPCC}, title = {Summary for Policymakers}, number = {9789291691517}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2034, author = {IPCC}, title = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl-report-download-page/}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2033, author = {IPCC}, title = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/download/}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2035, author = {IPCC}, title = {Technical Summary}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/11/04_SROCC_TS_FINAL.pdf }, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2036, author = {IPCC}, title = {Summary for Policymakers}, url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2037, author = {Irwin, A. and Valentine, N. and Brown, C. and Loewenson, R. and Solar, O. and Brown, H. and Koller, T. and Vega, J.}, title = {The commission on social determinants of health: tackling the social roots of health inequities}, journal = {PLoS Med}, volume = {3}, number = {6}, pages = {e106}, keywords = {*Developing Countries *Global Health Health Planning Organizations Health Policy *Health Services Accessibility Health Status Humans International Cooperation *Social Conditions Socioeconomic Factors *World Health Organization}, ISSN = {1549-1277 (Print) 1549-1277}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pmed.0030106}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2038, author = {Islam, Nazrul S. and Winkel, John}, title = {Climate Change and Social Inequality}, institution = {UNITED NATIONS}, abstract = {This paper offers a unifying conceptual framework for understanding the relationship between climate change and “within-country inequalities,” referred here collectively as “social inequality.” Available evidence indicates that this relationship is characterized by a vicious cycle, whereby initial inequality causes the disadvantaged groups to suffer disproportionately from the adverse effects of climate change, resulting in greater subsequent inequality. The paper identifies three main channels through which the inequality-aggravating effect of climate change materializes, namely (a) increase in the exposure of the disadvantaged groups to the adverse effects of climate change; (b) increase in their susceptibility to damage caused by climate change; and (c) decrease in their ability to cope and recover from the damage suffered. The paper presents evidence to illustrate each of the processes above. It also notes that the same analytical framework can be used to discuss the relationship between climate change and inequality across countries. Finally, it points to the ways in which the analysis can be helpful in making relevant policy decisions. }, url = {https://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2017/wp152_2017.pdf}, year = {2017}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2039, author = {Iyakaremye, Vedaste and Zeng, Gang and Zhang, Guwei}, title = {Changes in extreme temperature events over Africa under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {1506-1524}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6868}, abstract = {Abstract Following the December 2015 Paris Agreement, there is an international effort to limit global warming at 1.5 and 2.0°C relative to the pre-industrial level. However, there is inadequate research quantifying the difference in extreme temperature between the two target levels, especially in Africa. This study used historical and future low-warming projections of NCAR-CESM to assess the differences in extreme temperature events under 1.5 and 2.0°C future scenarios relative to the recent climate taken from 1976 to 2005 over Africa. The results show that compared with the present day, the magnitude of the highest temperature (TXx) will increase by approximately 1.6/2.2°C in 1.5/2.0°C warming worlds, with more substantial warming in Sahara and Southern Africa. The lowest temperature (TNn) will increase by ?1.9/2.5°C in 1.5/2.0°C future climates, where SAH and SAF will experience a higher intensity of warming followed by Eastern Africa and Western Africa regions. The frequency of hot days (TX90p) is projected to increase with global warming across the continent, with a high increase in SAF and SAH. The frequency of cold days (TN10p) is expected to decrease with global warming in many parts of Africa except in WAF. In most regions, there were no apparent changes revealed in the Warm Spell Duration Indicator relative to the recent climate across the continent except SAH in 1.5 and 2.0°C warming levels, while a decrease in Cold Spell Duration Indicator will be in SAH. Assessment of the avoided impacts in 1.5 relative to 2.0°C indicates that limiting global warming at 1.5 rather than 2.0°C could reduce the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme temperatures from 3 to 81%. However, the magnitude of avoided impacts differs among indices and sub-regions. Hence, it is paramount for the African continent to limit global warming at 1.5 instead of 2.0°C.}, keywords = {Africa CESM extreme temperature global warming}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6868}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6868}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2040, author = {Jack, C. and Wolski, P. and Pinto, I. and Indasi, V.}, title = {Southern Africa: Tools for observing and modelling climate}, booktitle = {Africa’s climate: Helping decision-makers make sense of climate information}, publisher = {Future Climate for Africa}, address = {Cape Town, South Africa}, pages = {23-30}, url = {http://www.futureclimateafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/africas-climate-final-report-4nov16.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2041, author = {Jacobs, Katharine L. and Street, Roger Brian}, title = {The next generation of climate services}, journal = {Climate Services}, volume = {20}, pages = {100199}, ISSN = {2405-8807}, DOI = {10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100199}, url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100199}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2042, author = {Jafino, Bramka Arga and Walsh, Brian and Rozenberg, Julie and Hallegatte, Stephane}, title = {Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030}, institution = {World Bank Group}, url = {https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/706751601388457990/pdf/Revised-Estimates-of-the-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Extreme-Poverty-by-2030.pdf}, year = {2020}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2043, author = {Jaka, H. and Shava, E.}, title = {Resilient rural women's livelihoods for poverty alleviation and economic empowerment in semi-arid regions of Zimbabwe}, journal = {Jamba}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {524}, ISSN = {1996-1421}, DOI = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.524}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6191674/pdf/JAMBA-10-524.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2044, author = {Jaksa, Matthew F.}, title = {Putting the Sustainable Back in Sustainable Development: Recognizing and Enforcing Indigenous Property Rights as a Pathway to Global Environmental Sustainability Notes & Comments}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation}, volume = {21}, number = {1}, pages = {157-206}, url = {https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/jenvll21&i=161 https://heinonline.org/HOL/PrintRequest?handle=hein.journals/jenvll21&collection=journals&div=9&id=161&print=section&sction=9}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2045, author = {Jaramillo, Juliana and Muchugu, Eric and Vega, Fernando E. and Davis, Aaron and Borgemeister, Christian and Chabi-Olaye, Adenirin}, title = {Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa}, journal = {PLoS ONE}, volume = {6}, number = {9}, pages = {e24528-e24528}, keywords = {Africa Berries Climate change Crops Insects Kenya Rwanda Thermal stresses}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0024528}, url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024528}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2046, author = {Jarvis, Andy and Ramirez-Villegas, Julian and Campo, Beatriz Vanessa Herrera and Navarro-Racines, Carlos}, title = {Is Cassava the Answer to African Climate Change Adaptation?}, journal = {Tropical Plant Biology}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {9-29}, DOI = {10.1007/s12042-012-9096-7}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12042-012-9096-7}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2047, author = {Jasechko, Scott and Taylor, Richard G.}, title = {Intensive rainfall recharges tropical groundwaters}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {10}, number = {12}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124015}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2048, author = {Jayasinghe, Sadeeka L. and Kumar, Lalit}, title = {Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models}, journal = {Agronomy}, volume = {10}, number = {10}, abstract = {The threat of accelerating climate change on species distribution now and in the future is a topic of increasing research interest. However, little work has been undertaken to assess how shifting climates will affect the suitability of tea cultivation. Therefore, we used MaxEnt modelling to project the impact of current and future climatic scenarios on the potential distribution of tea across the four tea-producing countries of China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Projections were made for the years 2050 and 2070 with three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using seven bioclimatic predictors under three global circulation models (GCMs). The current and future habitat suitability for tea predicted by the models produced a high accuracy rate, with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for all tested RCPs under the three GCMs for the four countries. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) values for tea in Sri Lanka, Kenya, India and China were 0.80, 0.91, 0.91, and 0.74, respectively. The kappa values (k) of the current and future models for all four countries ranged from 0.40 to 0.75, which indicates that the overall performance of the model was good. The precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were found to be the most influential variables in Sri Lanka and India, respectively, while annual mean temperature was the most effective contributor for determining the suitability of habitat for tea in Kenya and China. An important proviso is that some existing tea-growing areas will face reduced suitability for future tea cultivation suggesting that by 2050 there will be a drastic reduction in the optimal suitability by averages of 26.2%, 14%, and 4.7% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The optimal suitability will be reduced by 15.1%, 28.6% and 2.6% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively, by 2070. India displays an advantage in projected future climates as it gains optimal suitability areas of 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070.}, keywords = {Camellia sinensis climate change climate suitability global climate models MaxEnt Representative Concentration Pathways}, ISSN = {2073-4395}, DOI = {10.3390/agronomy10101536}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2049, author = {Jayne, T. S. and Muyanga, Milu and Wineman, Ayala and Ghebru, Hosaena and Stevens, Caleb and Stickler, Mercedes and Chapoto, Antony and Anseeuw, Ward and Westhuizen, Divan and Nyange, David}, title = {Are medium‐scale farms driving agricultural transformation in sub‐Saharan Africa?}, journal = {Agricultural Economics}, volume = {50}, number = {S1}, pages = {75-95}, ISSN = {0169-5150 1574-0862}, DOI = {10.1111/agec.12535}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2050, author = {Jayne, T. S. and Snapp, Sieglinda and Place, Frank and Sitko, Nicholas}, title = {Sustainable agricultural intensification in an era of rural transformation in Africa}, journal = {Global Food Security}, volume = {20}, pages = {105-113}, abstract = {Drawing on Boserupian and induced innovation principles, this review explores how the farm technologies and practices associated with integrated soil management and sustainable intensification may vary spatially according to the heterogenous ways in which economic transformation and population dynamics are influencing agricultural factor prices. Long-term trends in many areas are encouraging intensification of capital inputs, including fertilizer use. However, low agronomic efficiency of nitrogen poses a major constraint on fertilizer profitability and use. Integrated soil and agronomic management practices can improve the agronomic efficiency of fertilizer use, but achieving greater adoption of such practices will require greater understanding of best practices for the wide range of environmental conditions and farmer resource constraints in the region. Because sustainable resource managment best practices are highly localized and knowledge-intensive, massively increased investment in localized adaptive farm-level research and extension systems will be required to catalyze sustainable intensification in Africa.}, keywords = {Sustainable intensification Induced innovation Boserup Fertilizer Integrated soil fertility management Africa Land Agricultural productivity}, ISSN = {2211-9124}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.01.008}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417301396}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2051, author = {Jean, N. and Burke, M. and Xie, M. and Davis, W. M. and Lobell, D. B. and Ermon, S.}, title = {Combining satellite imagery and machine learning to predict poverty}, journal = {Science}, volume = {353}, number = {6301}, pages = {790-4}, keywords = {Developing Countries/*economics Humans *Income *Machine Learning Malawi Nigeria Poverty/*economics Rwanda Satellite Imagery/*methods Tanzania Uganda}, ISSN = {1095-9203 (Electronic) 0036-8075 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1126/science.aaf7894}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27540167}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2052, author = {Jenkins, Willis and Berry, Evan and Kreider, Luke Beck}, title = {Religion and Climate Change}, journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {85-108}, ISSN = {1543-5938 1545-2050}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025855}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2053, author = {Jensen, Kurt Mørck and Lange, Rane Baadsgaard}, title = {Transboundary Water Governance in a Shifting Development Context New Development Finance, Development Spaces and Commitment to Cooperation: A Comparative Study of the Mekong And the Zambezi River Basins}, institution = {Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep13303}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2054, author = {Jin, Chunhan and Wang, Bin and Liu, Jian}, title = {Future Changes and Controlling Factors of the Eight Regional Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {33}, number = {21}, pages = {9307-9326}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0236.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/21/jcliD200236.xml}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2055, author = {Jin, L. and Whitehead, P. G. and Appeaning Addo, K. and Amisigo, B. and Macadam, I. and Janes, T. and Crossman, J. and Nicholls, R. J. and McCartney, M. and Rodda, H. J. E.}, title = {Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes}, journal = {Sci Total Environ}, volume = {637-638}, pages = {1069-1080}, note = {Jin, Li Whitehead, Paul G Appeaning Addo, Kwasi Amisigo, Barnabas Macadam, Ian Janes, Tamara Crossman, Jill Nicholls, Robert J McCartney, Matthew Rodda, Harvey J E eng Netherlands Sci Total Environ. 2018 Oct 1;637-638:1069-1080. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.350. Epub 2018 May 14.}, abstract = {As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin.}, keywords = {Africa Climate impacts Ghana Modeling River flow Water resources}, ISSN = {1879-1026 (Electronic) 0048-9697 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.350}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29801202}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2056, author = {Jiri, O and Mafongoya, PL and Chivenge, P}, title = {Indigenous knowledge systems, seasonal ‘quality’and climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe}, journal = {Climate Research}, volume = {66}, number = {2}, pages = {103-111}, ISSN = {0936-577X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01334}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2057, author = {Jiri, Obert and Mafongoya, Paramu L. and Chivenge, Pauline}, title = {Building climate change resilience through adaptation in smallholder farming systems in semi-arid Zimbabwe}, journal = {International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {151-165}, abstract = {Purpose This study aimed to determine factors that increase resilience and cause smallholder farmers to adapt better to climate change and vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors used the vulnerability to resilience model and binary logit model to analyse the factors influencing household decisions to adapt. Findings Households with increased access to climate information through extension services were likely to have better adaptation abilities. It was also shown that younger farmers were likely to adapt to climate change given their flexibility to adopt new techniques and their access and use of modern information and technology. Larger households were found to have higher probability of adapting as most adaptation strategies are labour intensive. Household’s possession of livestock and access to credit significantly enhanced adaptation. However, households with higher farm income have lesser incentives to adapt to because their current farming practices might already be optimum. Research limitations/implications Given that most of the smallholder farmers are vulnerable, such as women-headed households and the elderly, who are labour constrained, there is need for research and development of labour saving technologies to increase resilience to climate change and vulnerability. Originality/value These findings underscore the importance of enabling farmer access to information and better technologies which enable them to increase adaptive capacity and resilience.}, ISSN = {1756-8692}, DOI = {10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2016-0092}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2016-0092}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2058, author = {Jiri, Obert and Mafongoya, Paramu L and Mubaya, Chipo and Mafongoya, Owen}, title = {Seasonal climate prediction and adaptation using indigenous knowledge systems in agriculture systems in Southern Africa: a review}, journal = {Journal of Agricultural Science}, volume = {8}, number = {5}, pages = {156}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2059, author = {Jones, Benjamin F. and Olken, Benjamin A.}, title = {Climate Shocks and Exports}, journal = {American Economic Review}, volume = {100}, number = {2}, pages = {454-59}, DOI = {10.1257/aer.100.2.454}, url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.100.2.454}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2060, author = {Jones, H. P. and Nickel, B. and Srebotnjak, T. and Turner, W. and Gonzalez-Roglich, M. and Zavaleta, E. and Hole, D. G.}, title = {Global hotspots for coastal ecosystem-based adaptation}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {e0233005}, keywords = {*Acclimatization Animals Biodiversity Carbon Sequestration *Climate Change Conservation of Natural Resources Coral Reefs Cyclonic Storms *Ecosystem Global Warming Humans Sea Level Rise Wetlands}, ISSN = {1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0233005}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32469978}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2061, author = {Jones, L. and Dougill, A. and Jones, R. G. and Steynor, A. and Watkiss, P. and Kane, C. and Koelle, B. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and Padgham, J. and Ranger, N. and Roux, J. P. and Suarez, P. and Tanner, T. and Vincent, K.}, title = {Ensuring climate information guides long-term development}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {812-814}, ISSN = {17586798 1758678X}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2701}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2062, author = {Kaag, Mayke and Baltissen, Gerard and Steel, Griet and Lodder, Anouk}, title = {Migration, Youth, and Land in West Africa: Making the Connections Work for Inclusive Development}, journal = {Land}, volume = {8}, number = {4}, pages = {60}, keywords = {migration land governance youth West Africa}, ISSN = {2073-445X}, DOI = {10.3390/land8040060}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/8/4/60}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2063, author = {Kaczan, David J. and Orgill-Meyer, Jennifer}, title = {The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {158}, number = {3}, pages = {281-300}, ISSN = {1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2064, author = {Kagunyu, Anastasia and Wandibba, Simiyu and Wanjohi, Joseph G.}, title = {The use of indigenous climate forecasting methods by the pastoralists of Northern Kenya}, journal = {Pastoralism}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, ISSN = {2041-7136}, DOI = {10.1186/s13570-016-0054-0}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2065, author = {Kahn, Matthew E and Mohaddes, Kamiar and Ng, Ryan NC and Pesaran, M Hashem and Raissi, Mehdi and Yang, Jui-Chung}, title = {Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis}, institution = {International Monetary Fund,}, number = {0898-2937}, abstract = {We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.}, url = {https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/10/11/Long-Term-Macroeconomic-Effects-of-Climate-Change-A-Cross-Country-Analysis-48691}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2066, author = {Kakinuma, Kaoru and Puma, Michael J. and Hirabayashi, Yukiko and Tanoue, Masahiro and Baptista, Emerson A. and Kanae, Shinjiro}, title = {Flood-induced population displacements in the world}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {15}, number = {12}, pages = {124029}, abstract = {Strengthening the resilience of societies to extreme weather events is an urgent and critical priority around the world. Extreme weather often causes population displacement that compromises human security. Environment-induced displacement is multifaceted because climate extremes, population, and socio-economic conditions, among other factors, converge to influence individuals’ decisions to move. When large-scale, catastrophic floods occur, people tend to move both suddenly and rapidly for survival. Quantifying the patterns and mechanisms of such displacement at global scale is essential to support areas at high risk for climate-induced displacement. Here we present the global distribution of vulnerability to floods by mapping potential flood exposure and observed flood-induced displacement. We found that countries in Africa might be highly vulnerable to floods because they have high flood-induced displacement even at low- to mid-level flood exposure. Our results show that income levels (Gross National Income) substantial impact flood-induced displacement. Moreover, the relationship between income levels and displacement is nonlinear, and this nonlinearity indicates large gaps in flood-induced displacement between high- and low-income countries. We suggest that low-income countries, particularly in Africa, face a high likelihood of flood-induced displacement and need to develop adaptation measures to mitigate the potential for displacement and the associated risks.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/abc586}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc586}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2067, author = {Kaky, Emad and Gilbert, Francis}, title = {Predicting the distributions of Egypt's medicinal plants and their potential shifts under future climate change}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {12}, number = {11}, pages = {e0187714}, abstract = {Climate change is one of the most difficult of challenges to conserving biodiversity, especially for countries with few data on the distributions of their taxa. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, with the great advantage of being robust to small amounts of data. Taking advantage of a recently validated dataset, we use the medicinal plants of Egypt to identify hotspots of diversity now and in the future by predicting the effect of climate change on the pattern of species richness using species distribution modelling. Then we assess how Egypt's current Protected Area network is likely to perform in protecting plants under climate change. The patterns of species richness show that in most cases the A2a ‘business as usual’ scenario was more harmful than the B2a ‘moderate mitigation’ scenario. Predicted species richness inside Protected Areas was higher than outside under all scenarios, indicating that Egypt’s PAs are well placed to help conserve medicinal plants.}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0187714}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187714}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2068, author = {Kalacska, Margaret and Arroyo-Mora, J. and Lucanus, Oliver and Kishe-Machumu, Mary}, title = {Land Cover, Land Use, and Climate Change Impacts on Endemic Cichlid Habitats in Northern Tanzania}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, ISSN = {2072-4292}, DOI = {10.3390/rs9060623}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2069, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Wenz, Leonie}, title = {The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, volume = {103}, pages = {102360}, keywords = {Climate change Climate damages Climate impacts Growth regression Global warming Panel regression Cross-sectional regression Damage function Social costs of carbon}, ISSN = {0095-0696}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069620300838}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2070, author = {Kam, Pui Man and Aznar-Siguan, Gabriela and Schewe, Jacob and Milano, Leonardo and Ginnetti, Justin and Willner, Sven and McCaughey, Jamie W. and Bresch, David N.}, title = {Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {16}, number = {4}, pages = {044026}, abstract = {Every year, millions of people around the world are being displaced from their homes due to climate-related disasters. River flooding is responsible for a large part of this displacement. Previous studies have shown that river flood risk is expected to change as a result of global warming and its effects on the hydrological cycle. At the same time, future scenarios of socio-economic development imply substantial population increases in many of the areas that presently experience disaster-induced displacement. Here we show that both global warming and population change are projected to lead to substantial increases in flood-induced displacement risk over the coming decades. We use a global climate-hydrology-inundation modelling chain, including multiple alternative climate and hydrological models, to quantify the effect of global warming on displacement risk assuming either current or projected future population distributions. Keeping population fixed at present levels, we find roughly a 50% increase in global displacement risk for every degree of global warming. Adding projected population changes further exacerbates these increases globally and in most world regions, with the relative global flood displacement risk is increasing by roughly 350% at the end of the 21st century, compared to an increase of 150% without the contribution of population change. While the resolution of the global models is limited, the effect of global warming is robust across greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, climate models and hydrological models. These findings indicate a need for rapid action on both climate mitigation and adaptation agendas in order to reduce future risks to vulnerable populations.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/abd26c}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd26c}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2071, author = {Kamwendo, Gregory and Kamwendo, Juliet}, title = {Indigenous Knowledge-Systems and Food Security: Some Examples from Malawi}, journal = {Journal of Human Ecology}, volume = {48}, number = {1}, pages = {97-101}, ISSN = {0970-9274}, DOI = {10.1080/09709274.2014.11906778}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2014.11906778}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2072, author = {Kangalawe, Richard Y. M.}, title = {Climate change impacts on water resource management and community livelihoods in the southern highlands of Tanzania}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {191-201}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2016.1139487}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2016.1139487}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2073, author = {Kangalawe, Richard Y. M. and Mung’ong’o, Claude G. and Mwakaje, Agnes G. and Kalumanga, Elikana and Yanda, Pius Z.}, title = {Climate change and variability impacts on agricultural production and livelihood systems in Western Tanzania}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {202-216}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2016.1146119}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2016.1146119}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2074, author = {Karmaoui, Ahmed and Ifaadassan, Issam and Babqiqi, Abdelaziz and Messouli, Mohammed and Khebiza, Mohammed}, title = {Analysis of the Water Supply-demand Relationship in the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco, under Climate Change and Socio-economic Scenarios}, journal = {Journal of Scientific Research and Reports}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {1-10}, ISSN = {23200227}, DOI = {10.9734/jsrr/2016/21536}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2075, author = {Karuri, S. W. and Snow, R. W.}, title = {Forecasting paediatric malaria admissions on the Kenya Coast using rainfall}, journal = {Glob Health Action}, volume = {9}, pages = {29876}, keywords = {Adolescent Child Child, Preschool Forecasting/methods Hospitals, District Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Kenya/epidemiology Malaria/*epidemiology Models, Statistical *Patient Admission *Rain *Seasons Temperature Indian Ocean Dipole auto-regressive models forecasting malaria rainfall seasonality time-series}, ISSN = {1654-9716 (Print) 1654-9880}, DOI = {10.3402/gha.v9.29876}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2076, author = {Kaspar, Frank and Helmschrot, Jörg and Mhanda, A and Butale, M and de Clercq, W and Kanyanga, JK and Neto, FOS and Kruger, S and Castro Matsheka, M and Muche, G}, title = {The SASSCAL contribution to climate observation, climate data management and data rescue in Southern Africa}, journal = {Advances in science and research}, volume = {12}, pages = {171-177}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-171-2015}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2077, author = {Keahey, Jennifer}, title = {Gendered livelihoods and social change in post-apartheid South Africa}, journal = {Gender, Place & Culture}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {525-546}, ISSN = {0966-369X 1360-0524}, DOI = {10.1080/0966369x.2018.1460328}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2078, author = {Keeling, Ann and Dain, Katie and Hadley, Lucy}, title = {Diabetes and Climate Change Report}, institution = {International Diabetes Foundation (IDF)}, url = {https://www.idf.org/our-activities/advocacy-awareness/resources-and-tools/144:diabetes-and-climate-change-report.html}, year = {2012}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2079, author = {Kendon, Elizabeth J and Stratton, Rachel A and Tucker, Simon and Marsham, John H and Berthou, Ségolène and Rowell, David P and Senior, Catherine A}, title = {Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale}, journal = {Nature communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1794}, pages = {1-14}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2080, author = {Kennedy, John and Dunn, Robert and McCarthy, Mark and Titchner, Holly and Morice, Colin}, title = {Global and regional climate in 2016}, journal = {Weather}, volume = {72}, number = {8}, pages = {219-225}, ISSN = {00431656}, DOI = {10.1002/wea.3042}, url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wea.3042}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2081, author = {Kent, Chris and Chadwick, Robin and Rowell, David P.}, title = {Understanding Uncertainties in Future Projections of Seasonal Tropical Precipitation}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {28}, number = {11}, pages = {4390-4413}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00613.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/11/jcli-d-14-00613.1.xml}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2082, author = {Kharin, V. V. and Flato, G. M. and Zhang, X. and Gillett, N. P. and Zwiers, F. and Anderson, K. J.}, title = {Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity}, journal = {Earth's Future}, volume = {6}, number = {5}, pages = {704-715}, ISSN = {23284277}, DOI = {10.1002/2018ef000813}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2083, author = {Khedr, Mosaad}, title = {Challenges and Issues in Water, Climate Change, and Food Security in Egypt}, booktitle = {Conventional Water Resources and Agriculture in Egypt}, editor = {Negm, Abdelazim M.}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, pages = {229-243}, abstract = {Climate change is a real and growing problem and a complex phenomenon that alters the whole environment in which humans live. The impacts of climate change on freshwater systems and their management are mainly due to the observed and projected increases in temperature and precipitation variability. Developing countries, such as Egypt, are the most threatened by drastic impact of climatic changes on agriculture and food security. Several studies reported that Egypt is one of the most vulnerable countries to the potential impacts and risks of climate change, even though it produces less than 1% of the world total emissions of GHG, with a vulnerability of all sectors of development and a low resilience of the majority of stakeholders. One of the main challenges facing water management in Egypt is the expected impacts of climate change on the Nile flows and the different demands of the water sector. This in turn will directly affect the agricultural sector which is a key sector for the socio-economic development in Egypt, and plays a significant role in the Egyptian national economy. Climate change, population growth, and economic development will likely affect the future availability of water resources for agriculture in Egypt. The demand and supply of water for irrigation is expected to be influenced not only by changing hydrological regimes (through changes in precipitation, potential and actual evaporation, and runoff at the watershed and river basin scales), but also by concomitant increases in future competition for water due to population and economic growth. Egypt is therefore in a situation where it must plan for several different future scenarios, mostly negative, if climate change results in increased temperatures and decreased precipitation levels. Egypt’s negative environmental consequences of climate warming represent rise of sea level, water scarcity, agriculture and food insufficiency, and pressures on human health and national economy. Even in the absence of any negative effects of climate change, Egypt is dealing with a steady growth in population, increased urbanization, and riparian neighbors with their own plans for securing future water needs. All of these will require Egypt to put water resource planning as a top national security priority. The future impact of the above negative environmental consequences of climate change scenarios, the adaptation measures, and mitigation polices are the main points of concern in this chapter.}, ISBN = {978-3-319-95065-5}, DOI = {10.1007/698_2017_67}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/698_2017_67}, year = {2019}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2084, author = {Kibret, Solomon and Lautze, Jonathan and McCartney, Matthew and Wilson, G. Glenn and Nhamo, Luxon}, title = {Malaria impact of large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: maps, estimates and predictions}, journal = {Malaria Journal}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, pages = {339-339}, keywords = {Entomology Infectious Diseases Microbiology Parasitology Public Health Tropical Medicine}, DOI = {10.1186/s12936-015-0873-2}, url = {http://www.malariajournal.com/content/14/1/339}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2085, author = {Kibret, Solomon and Wilson, G. Glenn and Ryder, Darren and Tekie, Habte and Petros, Beyene}, title = {The Influence of Dams on Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {EcoHealth}, volume = {14}, number = {2}, pages = {408-419}, DOI = {10.1007/s10393-015-1029-0}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10393-015-1029-0}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2086, author = {Kichamu, Edith Afandi and Ziro, John Safari and Palaniappan, Gomathy and Ross, Helen}, title = {Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya}, journal = {Environment, Development and Sustainability}, volume = {20}, number = {6}, pages = {2663-2680}, ISSN = {1387-585X 1573-2975}, DOI = {10.1007/s10668-017-0010-1}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-0010-1}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2087, author = {Kienberger, Stefan and Hagenlocher, Michael}, title = {Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa}, journal = {Int. J. Health Geogr.}, volume = {13}, pages = {29}, ISSN = {1476-072X}, DOI = {10.1186/1476-072X-13-29}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1476-072X-13-29 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25127688 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4152278 https://ij-healthgeographics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-072X-13-29}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2088, author = {Kifani, Souad and Quansah, Edna and Masski, Hicham and Houssa, Rachida and Hilmi, Karim}, title = {Chapter 8: Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptations: Eastern Central Atlantic marine fisheries}, institution = {FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/i9705en/I9705EN.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2089, author = {Kihila, Jacob M.}, title = {Indigenous coping and adaptation strategies to climate change of local communities in Tanzania: a review}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {10}, number = {5}, pages = {406-416}, ISSN = {1756-5529 1756-5537}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2017.1318739}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1318739}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2090, author = {Kilungu, Halima and Leemans, Rik and Munishi, Pantaleo KT and Amelung, Bas}, title = {Climate change threatens major tourist attractions and tourism in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania}, booktitle = {Climate Change Adaptation in Africa}, editor = {Leal Filho, W. and Belay, S. and Kalangu, J. and Menas, W. and Munishi, P. and Musiyiwa, K.}, series = {Climate Change Management}, publisher = {Springer, Cham}, pages = {375-392}, ISBN = {978-3-319-49520-0}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49520-0_23}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2091, author = {Kilungu, Halima and Leemans, Rik and Munishi, Pantaleo K. T. and Nicholls, Sarah and Amelung, Bas}, title = {Forty Years of Climate and Land-Cover Change and its Effects on Tourism Resources in Kilimanjaro National Park}, journal = {Tourism Planning & Development}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {235-253}, ISSN = {2156-8316}, DOI = {10.1080/21568316.2019.1569121}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2019.1569121}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2092, author = {Kim, Y. and Kim, H. and Gasparrini, A. and Armstrong, B. and Honda, Y. and Chung, Y. and Ng, C. F. S. and Tobias, A. and Íñiguez, C. and Lavigne, E. and Sera, F. and Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. and Ragettli, M. S. and Scovronick, N. and Acquaotta, F. and Chen, B. Y. and Guo, Y. L. and Seposo, X. and Dang, T. N. and de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. and Saldiva, P. H. N. and Kosheleva, A. and Zanobetti, A. and Schwartz, J. and Bell, M. L. and Hashizume, M.}, title = {Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study}, journal = {Environ Health Perspect}, volume = {127}, number = {11}, pages = {117007}, keywords = {Brazil/epidemiology Canada/epidemiology Cities Hot Temperature/*adverse effects Humans Japan/epidemiology Philippines/epidemiology Republic of Korea/epidemiology Risk South Africa/epidemiology Spain/epidemiology Suicide/*statistics & numerical data Switzerland/epidemiology Taiwan/epidemiology United Kingdom/epidemiology United States/epidemiology Vietnam/epidemiology}, ISSN = {0091-6765 (Print) 0091-6765}, DOI = {10.1289/ehp4898}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2093, author = {Kimaro, Esther G. and Mor, Siobhan M. and Toribio, Jenny-Ann L. M. L.}, title = {Climate change perception and impacts on cattle production in pastoral communities of northern Tanzania}, journal = {Pastoralism}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {19}, ISSN = {2041-7136}, DOI = {10.1186/s13570-018-0125-5}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s13570-018-0125-5}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2094, author = {Kimaro, Esther G. and Toribio, Jenny-Ann L. M. L. and Mor, Siobhan M.}, title = {Climate change and cattle vector-borne diseases: Use of participatory epidemiology to investigate experiences in pastoral communities in Northern Tanzania}, journal = {Preventive Veterinary Medicine}, volume = {147}, pages = {79-89}, ISSN = {01675877}, DOI = {10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.08.010}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167587717300417}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2095, author = {Kimirei, Ismael Aaron and Mubaya, Chipo Plaxedes and Ndebele-Murisa, Mzime and Kaaya, Lulu and Mangadze, Tinotenda and Mwedzi, Tongayi and Kushata, Judith Natsai Theodora}, title = {Trends in Ecological Changes: Implications for East and Southern Africa}, booktitle = {Ecological Changes in the Zambezi River Basin}, editor = {Ndebele-Murisa, Mzime and Kimirei, Ismael Aaron and Mubaya, Chipo Plaxedes and Bere, Taurai }, publisher = {CODESRIA}, address = {Dakar}, chapter = {3}, pages = {49-82}, ISBN = {978-2-86978-713-1}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1grbbq5.14}, year = {2020}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2096, author = {Kishiwa, Peter and Nobert, Joel and Kongo, Victor and Ndomba, Preksedis}, title = {Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania}, journal = {Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences}, volume = {378}, pages = {23-27}, ISSN = {2199-899X}, DOI = {10.5194/piahs-378-23-2018}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2097, author = {Kissler, Stephen M. and Tedijanto, Christine and Goldstein, Edward and Grad, Yonatan H. and Lipsitch, Marc}, title = {Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period}, journal = {medRxiv}, pages = {2020.03.04.20031112}, DOI = {10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112}, url = {http://medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/03/06/2020.03.04.20031112.abstract}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2098, author = {Kita, S. M.}, title = {Barriers or enablers? Chiefs, elite capture, disasters, and resettlement in rural Malawi}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {43}, number = {1}, pages = {135-156}, keywords = {Disaster Planning/*organization & administration Food Supply Humans Malawi Program Evaluation Residence Characteristics *Rural Population chiefs disaster risk reduction elite capture resettlement}, ISSN = {0361-3666}, DOI = {10.1111/disa.12295}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/disa.12295}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2099, author = {Kiwanuka-Tondo, James and Semazzi, Fredrick and Pettiway, Keon}, title = {Climate risk communication of navigation safety and climate conditions over Lake Victoria basin: Exploring perceptions and knowledge of indigenous communities}, journal = {Cogent Social Sciences}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1588485}, ISSN = {null}, DOI = {10.1080/23311886.2019.1588485}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2019.1588485}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2100, author = {Kjellstrom, Tord and Briggs, David and Freyberg, Chris and Lemke, Bruno and Otto, Matthias and Hyatt, Olivia}, title = {Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts}, journal = {Annual Review of Public Health}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {97-112}, ISSN = {0163-7525}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740}, url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2101, author = {Kjellstrom, T. and Freyberg, C. and Lemke, B. and Otto, M. and Briggs, D.}, title = {Estimating population heat exposure and impacts on working people in conjunction with climate change}, journal = {Int J Biometeorol}, volume = {62}, number = {3}, pages = {291-306}, keywords = {Adolescent Adult Aged Child Child, Preschool Climate Change *Efficiency *Hot Temperature Humans Humidity Infant Infant, Newborn Middle Aged Models, Theoretical *Occupational Exposure Workplace Young Adult Climate change Health impacts Heat Social/economic impacts Work}, ISSN = {0020-7128}, DOI = {10.1007/s00484-017-1407-0}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2102, author = {Kjellstrom, T. and Lemke, B. and Otto, M. and Hyatt, O. and Dear, K.}, title = {Occupational Heat Stress Contribution to WHO project on "Global assessment of the health impacts of climate change", which started in 2009}, institution = {Ruby Coast Research Centre}, url = {http://climatechip.org/sites/default/files/publications/TP2014_4_Occupational_Heat_Stress_WHO.pdf}, year = {2014}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2103, author = {Klerkx, Laurens and Jakku, Emma and Labarthe, Pierre}, title = {A review of social science on digital agriculture, smart farming and agriculture 4.0: New contributions and a future research agenda}, journal = {NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences}, volume = {90-91}, pages = {100315}, abstract = {While there is a lot of literature from a natural or technical sciences perspective on different forms of digitalization in agriculture (big data, internet of things, augmented reality, robotics, sensors, 3D printing, system integration, ubiquitous connectivity, artificial intelligence, digital twins, and blockchain among others), social science researchers have recently started investigating different aspects of digital agriculture in relation to farm production systems, value chains and food systems. This has led to a burgeoning but scattered social science body of literature. There is hence lack of overview of how this field of study is developing, and what are established, emerging, and new themes and topics. This is where this article aims to make a contribution, beyond introducing this special issue which presents seventeen articles dealing with social, economic and institutional dynamics of precision farming, digital agriculture, smart farming or agriculture 4.0. An exploratory literature review shows that five thematic clusters of extant social science literature on digitalization in agriculture can be identified: 1) Adoption, uses and adaptation of digital technologies on farm; 2) Effects of digitalization on farmer identity, farmer skills, and farm work; 3) Power, ownership, privacy and ethics in digitalizing agricultural production systems and value chains; 4) Digitalization and agricultural knowledge and innovation systems (AKIS); and 5) Economics and management of digitalized agricultural production systems and value chains. The main contributions of the special issue articles are mapped against these thematic clusters, revealing new insights on the link between digital agriculture and farm diversity, new economic, business and institutional arrangements both on-farm, in the value chain and food system, and in the innovation system, and emerging ways to ethically govern digital agriculture. Emerging lines of social science enquiry within these thematic clusters are identified and new lines are suggested to create a future research agenda on digital agriculture, smart farming and agriculture 4.0. Also, four potential new thematic social science clusters are also identified, which so far seem weakly developed: 1) Digital agriculture socio-cyber-physical-ecological systems conceptualizations; 2) Digital agriculture policy processes; 3) Digitally enabled agricultural transition pathways; and 4) Global geography of digital agriculture development. This future research agenda provides ample scope for future interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary science on precision farming, digital agriculture, smart farming and agriculture 4.0.}, keywords = {Robotic farming Precision agriculture Digitalization Digital social science Data science Responsible research and innovation Agricultural knowledge and innovation systems}, ISSN = {1573-5214}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2019.100315}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1573521419301769}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2104, author = {Kloos, Julia and Baumert, Niklas}, title = {Preventive resettlement in anticipation of sea level rise: a choice experiment from Alexandria, Egypt}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {76}, number = {1}, pages = {99-121}, abstract = {The city of Alexandria, Egypt, is highly exposed to sea level rise putting communities at risk to related coastal hazards such as storm surges and inundation. In the future, preventive resettlement may become a realistic and, under some conditions, unavoidable adaptation policy to sea level rise. Many examples of failed resettlement projects exist worldwide, wherein the resettled populations faced increased social and economic risks. This paper investigates the preferences of vulnerable people in Alexandria for preventive resettlement programs in response to sea level rise. A choice experiment was conducted to assess the willingness to participate in voluntary resettlement programs and to identify important factors that influence the decision to participate. This can help policy makers to design people-centered resettlement programs that provide the right incentives to increase voluntary participation. Results show that for those who are, in principle, willing to resettle, factors such as transparency of the relocation process, public/social infrastructure, financial compensation, housing and income/job security can significantly influence their choices. However, a large share of the population is not willing to resettle given the proposed alternative resettlement programs included in the choice experiment. Urban households are more likely to be unwilling to resettle, while factors such as income insecurity and fewer social relationships decrease the probability of choosing not to resettle ceteris paribus.}, ISSN = {1573-0840}, DOI = {10.1007/s11069-014-1475-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1475-y}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2105, author = {Klotter, D. and Nicholson, S. E. and Dezfuli, A. K. and Zhou, L.}, title = {New Rainfall Datasets for the Congo Basin and Surrounding Regions}, journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology}, volume = {19}, number = {8}, pages = {1379-1396}, keywords = {Africa,Precipitation,Rainfall,Hydrometeorology,Databases,Statistical techniques}, ISSN = {1525-755X 1525-7541}, DOI = {10.1175/jhm-d-18-0015.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0015.1}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2106, author = {Klutse, Nana Ama Browne and Ajayi, Vincent O. and Gbobaniyi, Emiola Olabode and Egbebiyi, Temitope S. and Kouadio, Kouakou and Nkrumah, Francis and Quagraine, Kwesi Akumenyi and Olusegun, Christiana and Diasso, Ulrich and Abiodun, Babatunde J. and Lawal, Kamoru and Nikulin, Grigory and Lennard, Christopher and Dosio, Alessandro}, title = {Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {055013}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2107, author = {KNOMAD}, title = {Migration and Development Brief 26: Migration and Remittances Recent Developments and Outlook}, institution = {World Bank, The Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)}, url = {http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/661301460400427908/MigrationandDevelopmentBrief26.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2108, author = {Knorr, W. and Arneth, A. and Jiang, L.}, title = {Demographic controls of future global fire risk}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {781-785}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2999}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2999}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2109, author = {Knorr, W. and Dentener, F. and Lamarque, J. F. and Jiang, L. and Arneth, A.}, title = {Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century}, journal = {Atmos. Chem. Phys.}, volume = {17}, number = {14}, pages = {9223-9236}, ISSN = {1680-7324}, DOI = {10.5194/acp-17-9223-2017}, url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/9223/2017/}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2110, author = {Knox, J. W. and Rodríguez Díaz, J. A. and Nixon, D. J. and Mkhwanazi, M.}, title = {A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland}, journal = {Agricultural Systems}, volume = {103}, number = {2}, pages = {63-72}, abstract = {The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements and yield for sugarcane grown in Swaziland have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a general circulation model (HadCM3), a sugarcane crop growth model and a GIS. The CANEGRO model (embedded with the DSSAT program) was used to simulate the baseline and future cane net annual irrigation water requirements (IRnet) and yield (tha−1) using a reference site and selected emissions scenario (SRES A2 and B2) for the 2050s (including CO2-fertilisation effects). The simulated baseline yields were validated against field data from 1980 to 1997. An aridity index was defined and used to correlate agroclimate variability against irrigation need to estimate the baseline and future irrigation water demand (volumetric). To produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of production, future irrigation needs were predicted to increase by 20–22%. With CO2-fertilisation, the impacts of climate change are offset by higher crop yields, such that IRnet is predicted to increase by 9%. The study showed that with climate change, the current peak capacity of existing irrigation schemes could fail to meet the predicted increases in irrigation demand in nearly 50% of years assuming unconstrained water availability.}, keywords = {CANEGRO GIS Irrigation Sugarcane Water Yield}, ISSN = {0308-521X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.09.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X09001048}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2111, author = {Kohlitz, Jeremy and Chong, Joanne and Willetts, Juliet}, title = {Climate change vulnerability and resilience of water, sanitation, and hygiene services: A theoretical perspective}, journal = {Journal of Water Sanitation and Hygiene for Development}, volume = {7}, pages = {washdev2017134}, DOI = {10.2166/washdev.2017.134}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2112, author = {Koks, E. E. and Rozenberg, J. and Zorn, C. and Tariverdi, M. and Vousdoukas, M. and Fraser, S. A. and Hall, J. W. and Hallegatte, S.}, title = {A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets}, journal = {Nat Commun}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {2677}, ISSN = {2041-1723 (Electronic) 2041-1723 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31239442}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2113, author = {Kolawole, Oluwatoyin Dare and Motsholapheko, Moseki Ronald and Ngwenya, Barbara Ntombi and Thakadu, Olekae and Mmopelwa, Gagoitseope and Kgathi, Donald Letsholo}, title = {Climate Variability and Rural Livelihoods: How Households Perceive and Adapt to Climatic Shocks in the Okavango Delta, Botswana}, journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {131-145}, DOI = {10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0019.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/8/2/wcas-d-15-0019_1.xml}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2114, author = {Kolding, Jeppe and van Zwieten, Paul and Marttin, Felix and Poulain, Florence}, title = {Fisheries in the Drylands of sub-Saharan Africa: "fish come with the rains" - Building resilience for sheries-dependent livelihoods to enhance food security and nutrition in the drylands}, institution = {Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.4574.1682}, url = {http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5616e.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Report} } @techreport{RN2115, author = {Kolding, Jepppe and VanZwieten, Paul and Marttin, Felix and Funge-Smith, Simon and Poulain, Florence}, title = {Freshwater small pelagic fish and their fisheries in major African lakes and reservoirs in relation to food security and nutrition}, number = {978-92-5-130813-4}, url = {http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/CA0843EN/}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2116, author = {Kolusu, Seshagiri Rao and Shamsudduha, Mohammad and Todd, Martin C. and Taylor, Richard G. and Seddon, David and Kashaigili, Japhet J. and Ebrahim, Girma Y. and Cuthbert, Mark O. and Sorensen, James P. R. and Villholth, Karen G. and MacDonald, Alan M. and MacLeod, Dave A.}, title = {The El Niño event of 2015–2016: climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {23}, number = {3}, pages = {1751-1762}, ISSN = {1607-7938}, DOI = {10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2117, author = {Kotchoni, D. O. Valerie and Vouillamoz, Jean-Michel and Lawson, Fabrice M. A. and Adjomayi, Philippe and Boukari, Moussa and Taylor, Richard G.}, title = {Relationships between rainfall and groundwater recharge in seasonally humid Benin: a comparative analysis of long-term hydrographs in sedimentary and crystalline aquifers}, journal = {Hydrogeology Journal}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {447-457}, abstract = {Groundwater is a vital source of freshwater throughout the tropics enabling access to safe water for domestic, agricultural and industrial purposes close to the point of demand. The sustainability of groundwater withdrawals is controlled, in part, by groundwater recharge, yet the conversion of rainfall into recharge remains inadequately understood, particularly in the tropics. This study examines a rare set of 19–25-year records of observed groundwater levels and rainfall under humid conditions (mean rainfall is ~1,200 mm year−1) in three common geological environments of Benin and other parts of West Africa: Quaternary sands, Mio-Pliocene sandstone, and crystalline rocks. Recharge is estimated from groundwater-level fluctuations and employs values of specific yield derived from magnetic resonance soundings. Recharge is observed to occur seasonally and linearly in response to rainfall exceeding an apparent threshold of between 140 and 250 mm year−1. Inter-annual changes in groundwater storage correlate well to inter-annual rainfall variability. However, recharge varies substantially depending upon the geological environment: annual recharge to shallow aquifers of Quaternary sands amounts to as much as 40% of annual rainfall, whereas in deeper aquifers of Mio-Pliocene sandstone and weathered crystalline rocks, annual fractions of rainfall generating recharge are 13 and 4%, respectively. Differences are primarily attributed to the thickness of the unsaturated zone and to the lithological controls on the transmission and storage of rain-fed recharge.}, ISSN = {1435-0157}, DOI = {10.1007/s10040-018-1806-2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-018-1806-2}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2118, author = {Koubi, Vally}, title = {Climate Change and Conflict}, journal = {Annual Review of Political Science}, volume = {22}, number = {1}, pages = {343-360}, keywords = {climate change,conflict,agricultural income,food prices,migration}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830}, url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2119, author = {Kraemer, Benjamin M. and Pilla, Rachel M. and Woolway, R. Iestyn and Anneville, Orlane and Ban, Syuhei and Colom-Montero, William and Devlin, Shawn P. and Dokulil, Martin T. and Gaiser, Evelyn E. and Hambright, K. David and Hessen, Dag O. and Higgins, Scott N. and Jöhnk, Klaus D. and Keller, Wendel and Knoll, Lesley B. and Leavitt, Peter R. and Lepori, Fabio and Luger, Martin S. and Maberly, Stephen C. and Müller-Navarra, Dörthe C. and Paterson, Andrew M. and Pierson, Donald C. and Richardson, David C. and Rogora, Michela and Rusak, James A. and Sadro, Steven and Salmaso, Nico and Schmid, Martin and Silow, Eugene A. and Sommaruga, Ruben and Stelzer, Julio A. A. and Straile, Dietmar and Thiery, Wim and Timofeyev, Maxim A. and Verburg, Piet and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A. and Adrian, Rita}, title = {Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal habitat}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {11}, number = {6}, pages = {521-529}, ISSN = {1758-678X 1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/s41558-021-01060-3}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2120, author = {Kraemer, Moritz U. G. and Reiner, Robert C. and Brady, Oliver J. and Messina, Jane P. and Gilbert, Marius and Pigott, David M. and Yi, Dingdong and Johnson, Kimberly and Earl, Lucas and Marczak, Laurie B. and Shirude, Shreya and Davis Weaver, Nicole and Bisanzio, Donal and Perkins, T. Alex and Lai, Shengjie and Lu, Xin and Jones, Peter and Coelho, Giovanini E. and Carvalho, Roberta G. and Van Bortel, Wim and Marsboom, Cedric and Hendrickx, Guy and Schaffner, Francis and Moore, Chester G. and Nax, Heinrich H. and Bengtsson, Linus and Wetter, Erik and Tatem, Andrew J. and Brownstein, John S. and Smith, David L. and Lambrechts, Louis and Cauchemez, Simon and Linard, Catherine and Faria, Nuno R. and Pybus, Oliver G. and Scott, Thomas W. and Liu, Qiyong and Yu, Hongjie and Wint, G. R. William and Hay, Simon I. and Golding, Nick}, title = {Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus}, journal = {Nature Microbiology}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {854-863}, ISSN = {2058-5276}, DOI = {10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2121, author = {Krell, N. T. and Giroux, S. A. and Guido, Z. and Hannah, C. and Lopus, S. E. and Caylor, K. K. and Evans, T. P.}, title = {Smallholder farmers' use of mobile phone services in central Kenya}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, pages = {215-227}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {10.1080/17565529.2020.1748847}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1748847}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2122, author = {Kroon, Frederieke J. and Thorburn, Peter and Schaffelke, Britta and Whitten, Stuart}, title = {Towards protecting the Great Barrier Reef from land-based pollution}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {22}, number = {6}, pages = {1985-2002}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {10.1111/gcb.13262}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13262}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2123, author = {Kruczkiewicz, A. and Klopp, J. and Fisher, J. and Mason, S. and McClain, S. and Sheekh, N. M. and Moss, R. and Parks, R. M. and Braneon, C.}, title = {Opinion: Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {118}, number = {19}, pages = {e2106795118}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.2106795118}, url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/19/e2106795118.full.pdf}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2125, author = {Kruger, Andries C and Nxumalo, MP}, title = {Historical rainfall trends in South Africa: 1921–2015}, journal = {Water SA}, volume = {43}, number = {2}, pages = {285-297}, ISSN = {0378-4738}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4314/wsa.v43i2.12}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2124, author = {Kruger, Andries C. and Nxumalo, M.}, title = {Surface temperature trends from homogenized time series in South Africa: 1931-2015}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {37}, number = {5}, pages = {2364-2377}, ISSN = {08998418}, DOI = {10.1002/joc.4851}, url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4851}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2126, author = {Kuhl, Laura}, title = {Policy making under scarcity: reflections for designing socially just climate adaptation policy}, journal = {One Earth}, volume = {4}, number = {2}, pages = {202-212}, keywords = {adaptation climate information policy ethics climate finance equity social justice}, ISSN = {2590-3322}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.01.008}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221000543}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2127, author = {Kula, N. and Haines, A. and Fryatt, R.}, title = {Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Need for Better Evidence}, journal = {Plos Medicine}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {5}, keywords = {health highlands General & Internal Medicine}, ISSN = {1549-1676}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1001374}, url = {://WOS:000314685600013}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2128, author = {Kulp, Scott A. and Strauss, Benjamin H.}, title = {New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {4844}, abstract = {Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA’s SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 230 M below 1 m.}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2130, author = {Kumi, Naomi and Abiodun, Babatunde J.}, title = {Potential impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in West Africa}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {055009}, abstract = {This study examines the potential impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (GWL15 and GWL20) on rainfall onset dates (RODs), rainfall cessation dates (RCDs), and length of the rainy season (LRS) in West Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Nineteen multi-model multi-ensemble simulation datasets from eight regional climate models that participated in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment were used for the study. The ability of the model ensemble mean to reproduce the characteristics of RODs, RCDs and LRS for past climate were evaluated using two observed datasets. The impacts of GWL15 and GWL20 on each parameter were quantified and compared. The models reproduce the characteristics of RODs, RCDs, and LRS as observed in the historical climate over West Africa though with few biases. The models projected the western and eastern Sahel as hot-spots for a delayed ROD and reduced LRS in the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer climate under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A delayed RCD and longer LRS are projected over the western part of the Guinea coast. The uncertainties associated with the projections are high for RCD but lower for ROD and LRS. While an increase in global warming from 1.5 °C–2 °C enhances late ROD over the entire West Africa under the RCP4.5, it fosters early ROD over the Sahel zone under the RCP8.5. It also encourages a decrease in the LRS over the Guinea zone and an increase in LRS over the Sahel zone, but produces opposite results under RCP8.5. The results of the study have application in reducing the impacts of global warming over West Africa.}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab89e}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab89e}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2131, author = {Kummu, Matti and Heino, Matias and Taka, Maija and Varis, Olli and Viviroli, Daniel}, title = {Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space}, journal = {One Earth}, volume = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {720-729}, abstract = {Summary Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5–8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081–2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction.}, keywords = {crop production livestock production safe operating space climatic conditions climate change Holdridge life zones}, ISSN = {2590-3322}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332221002360}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2132, author = {Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Kanae, Shinjiro and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Handmer, John and Nicholls, Neville and Peduzzi, Pascal and Mechler, Reinhard and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Arnell, Nigel and Mach, Katharine and Muir-Wood, Robert and Brakenridge, G. Robert and Kron, Wolfgang and Benito, Gerardo and Honda, Yasushi and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Sherstyukov, Boris}, title = {Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives}, journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal}, volume = {59}, number = {1}, pages = {1-28}, ISSN = {0262-6667}, DOI = {10.1080/02626667.2013.857411}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2133, author = {Kuper, Hannah and Walsham, Matthew and Myamba, Flora and Mesaki, Simeon and Mactaggart, Islay and Banks, Morgon and Blanchet, Karl}, title = {Social protection for people with disabilities in Tanzania: a mixed methods study}, journal = {Oxford Development Studies}, volume = {44}, number = {4}, pages = {441-457}, ISSN = {1360-0818 1469-9966}, DOI = {10.1080/13600818.2016.1213228}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2134, author = {Kupika, Olga Laiza and Gandiwa, Edson and Nhamo, Godwell and Kativu, Shakkie}, title = {Local Ecological Knowledge on Climate Change and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies Promote Resilience in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve, Zimbabwe}, journal = {Scientifica}, volume = {2019}, pages = {3069254}, abstract = {Understanding local community perceptions on impacts, causes, and responses to climate change is vital for promotion of community resilience towards climate change. This study explored local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by local communities on climate change trends and impacts in the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve (MZBR), Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to (i) investigate local community perceptions on trends and causes of climate change, (ii) identify biophysical impacts of climate change at the local level, and (iii) explore the ecosystem-based adaptation strategies towards climate change. The study used a mixed methods approach where a household questionnaire survey (n=320), key informant interviews (n=12), and focus group discussions (n=8) were used to collect data between April 2015 and October 2016. Results from the study show that local communities have observed decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures as key indicators of climate change. Local communities observed water scarcity, changes in vegetation phenology, livestock and wildlife mortalities, and food shortages due to drought as the major impacts on their livelihoods. LEK can contribute to adaptive management strategies that enhance resilience of socioecological systems (SES) in the face of climate change by providing information on the status and use of biophysical components of the environment and by highlighting potential local adaptation strategies that can sustain key livelihood practices.}, ISSN = {null}, DOI = {10.1155/2019/3069254}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/3069254}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2135, author = {Kuran, Christian Henrik Alexander and Morsut, Claudia and Kruke, Bjørn Ivar and Krüger, Marco and Segnestam, Lisa and Orru, Kati and Nævestad, Tor Olav and Airola, Merja and Keränen, Jaana and Gabel, Friedrich and Hansson, Sten and Torpan, Sten}, title = {Vulnerability and vulnerable groups from an intersectionality perspective}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {50}, pages = {101826}, abstract = {In general, the identification and protection of vulnerable groups in the case of hazards or when a crisis unfolds is an issue that any crisis and disaster risk management should address, since people have different levels of exposure to hazards and crises. In this article, we promote the application of the intersectionality perspective in the study of vulnerable groups, and we call for intersectionality as a guiding principle in risk and crisis management, to provide a better and more nuanced picture of vulnerabilities and vulnerable groups. This can help national and local authorities and agencies to formulate specific guides, to hire staff with the skills necessary to meet particular needs, and to inform vulnerable groups in a particular way, taking into account the differences that may coexist within the same group. Intersectionality allows us to read vulnerability not as the characteristic of some socio-demographic groups. It is rather the result of different and interdependent societal stratification processes that result in multiple dimensions of marginalisation. In this vein, we argue that research should focus on 1) self-perceived vulnerability of individuals and an intersectionality approach to unpack vulnerable groups; 2) cases of crises according to the level and/or likelihood of individual exposure to hazards, to better nuance issues of vulnerability.}, keywords = {Social vulnerability Vulnerable groups Intersectionality}, ISSN = {2212-4209}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101826}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420920313285}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2136, author = {Kusangaya, Samuel and Warburton, Michele L. and Archer van Garderen, Emma and Jewitt, Graham P. W.}, title = {Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review}, journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C}, volume = {67-69}, pages = {47-54}, abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is consensus that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in climate change which will cause the sea level to rise, increased frequency of extreme climatic events including intense storms, heavy rainfall events and droughts. This will increase the frequency of climate-related hazards, causing loss of life, social disruption and economic hardships. There is less consensus on the magnitude of change of climatic variables, but several studies have shown that climate change will impact on the availability and demand for water resources. In southern Africa, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply to wildlife management, since the region is characterised by highly spatial and temporally variable rainfall and, in some cases, scarce water resources. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the region’s low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty and low technology uptake. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa. The outcomes of this review include highlighting studies on detected climate changes particularly focusing on temperature and rainfall. Additionally, the impacts of climate change are highlighted, and respective studies on hydrological responses to climate change are examined. The review also discusses the challenges in climate change impact analysis, which inevitably represents existing research and knowledge gaps. Finally the paper concludes by outlining possible research areas in the realm of climate change impacts on water resources, particularly knowledge gaps in uncertainty analysis for both climate change and hydrological modelling.}, keywords = {Climate change Southern Africa Water resources Hydrological modelling Uncertainty}, ISSN = {1474-7065}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2013.09.014}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147470651300140X}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2137, author = {Kynast-Wolf, G. and Preuß, M. and Sié, A. and Kouyaté, B. and Becher, H.}, title = {Seasonal patterns of cardiovascular disease mortality of adults in Burkina Faso, West Africa}, journal = {Trop Med Int Health}, volume = {15}, number = {9}, pages = {1082-9}, keywords = {Adult Age Factors Aged Aged, 80 and over Autopsy Burkina Faso/epidemiology Cardiovascular Diseases/*mortality Female Hot Temperature Humans Humidity Male Middle Aged Rural Health *Seasons}, ISSN = {1360-2276}, DOI = {10.1111/j.1365-3156.2010.02586.x}, year = {2010}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2138, author = {Kyriakarakos, George and Balafoutis, Athanasios T. and Bochtis, Dionysis}, title = {Proposing a Paradigm Shift in Rural Electrification Investments in Sub-Saharan Africa through Agriculture}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, number = {8}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su12083096}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2139, author = {LaCanne, C. E. and Lundgren, J. G.}, title = {Regenerative agriculture: merging farming and natural resource conservation profitably}, journal = {PeerJ}, volume = {6}, number = {e4428}, DOI = {10.7717/peerj.4428}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2140, author = {Läderach, P. and Martinez-Valle, A. and Schroth, G. and Castro, N.}, title = {Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world’s leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {119}, number = {3-4}, pages = {841-854}, ISSN = {0165-0009 1573-1480}, DOI = {10.1007/s10584-013-0774-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0774-8}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2141, author = {Lakhraj-Govender, Rakhee and Grab, Stefan W.}, title = {Rainfall and river flow trends for the Western Cape Province, South Africa}, journal = {South African Journal of Science}, volume = {115}, number = {9/10}, pages = {1-6}, ISSN = {0038-2353}, DOI = {http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2019/6028 }, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2142, author = {Lakhraj‐Govender, Rakhee and Grab, Stefan W}, title = {Assessing the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South African temperatures during austral summer}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {143-156}, ISSN = {0899-8418}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5791}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2143, author = {Lallo, Cicero H. O. and Cohen, Jane and Rankine, Dale and Taylor, Michael and Cambell, Jayaka and Stephenson, Tannecia}, title = {Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {18}, number = {8}, pages = {2329-2340}, abstract = {There is an urgent need to mitigate climate change-induced heat stress in livestock and poultry in the Caribbean, given the deleterious effects it has on food and nutrition security. The temperature humidity index (THI) was used to assess the potential for heat stress on four types of livestock and poultry (broiler and layer chickens, pigs and ruminants) for three different agro-ecological locations in Jamaica. The THI was formulated specifically to each livestock type and was examined for 2001–2012 for seasonal and annual patterns of variability. Differences in THI were observed between summer (July to September) and winter (December to February) with some moderation due to agro-ecological location. Our results suggest that animals in ambient field conditions in Jamaica may already be experiencing considerable periods of heat stress even during the relatively cooler northern hemisphere winter months. Future patterns of heat stress relative to a 1961–1990 baseline were derived from a regional climate model when mean global surface air temperature is 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.5 °C, marked increases were noted in THI and almost persistent year-round heat stress is projected for Caribbean livestock. Conditions will be exacerbated at the higher global warming states. Possible response strategies such as cooling technologies are discussed.}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-018-1359-x}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1359-x}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2144, author = {Lammers, Pina Lena and Richter, Torsten and Mantilla-Contreras, Jasmin}, title = {From Safety Net to Point of No Return—Are Small-Scale Inland Fisheries Reaching Their Limits?}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, number = {18}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su12187299}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2145, author = {Landrigan, Philip J. and Fuller, Richard and Acosta, Nereus J. R. and Adeyi, Olusoji and Arnold, Robert and Basu, Niladri and Baldé, Abdoulaye Bibi and Bertollini, Roberto and Bose-O'Reilly, Stephan and Boufford, Jo Ivey and Breysse, Patrick N. and Chiles, Thomas and Mahidol, Chulabhorn and Coll-Seck, Awa M. and Cropper, Maureen L. and Fobil, Julius and Fuster, Valentin and Greenstone, Michael and Haines, Andy and Hanrahan, David and Hunter, David and Khare, Mukesh and Krupnick, Alan and Lanphear, Bruce and Lohani, Bindu and Martin, Keith and Mathiasen, Karen V. and McTeer, Maureen A. and Murray, Christopher J. L. and Ndahimananjara, Johanita D. and Perera, Frederica and Potočnik, Janez and Preker, Alexander S. and Ramesh, Jairam and Rockström, Johan and Salinas, Carlos and Samson, Leona D. and Sandilya, Karti and Sly, Peter D. and Smith, Kirk R. and Steiner, Achim and Stewart, Richard B. and Suk, William A. and van Schayck, Onno C. P. and Yadama, Gautam N. and Yumkella, Kandeh and Zhong, Ma}, title = {The Lancet Commission on pollution and health}, journal = {The Lancet}, volume = {391}, number = {10119}, pages = {462-512}, ISSN = {0140-6736}, DOI = {10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32345-0}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32345-0}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2146, author = {Laneri, Karina and Paul, Richard E. and Tall, Adama and Faye, Joseph and Diene-Sarr, Fatoumata and Sokhna, Cheikh and Trape, Jean-François and Rodó, Xavier}, title = {Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {112}, number = {28}, pages = {8786-91}, keywords = {Plasmodium falciparum malaria climate endemicity immunity vector-borne diseases}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1419047112}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26124134 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC4507245}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2147, author = {Langat, Philip and Kumar, Lalit and Koech, Richard}, title = {Temporal Variability and Trends of Rainfall and Streamflow in Tana River Basin, Kenya}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {9}, number = {11}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su9111963}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2148, author = {Lapointe, D. and Cooperman, M. S. and Chapman, L. J. and Clark, T. D. and Val, A. L. and Ferreira, M. S. and Balirwa, J. S. and Mbabazi, D. and Mwanja, M. and Chhom, L. and Hannah, L. and Kaufman, L. and Farrell, A. P. and Cooke, S. J.}, title = {Predicted impacts of climate warming on aerobic performance and upper thermal tolerance of six tropical freshwater fishes spanning three continents}, journal = {Conserv Physiol}, volume = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {coy056}, keywords = {Aerobic scope climate change critical thermal maximum food security tropical inland fisheries}, ISSN = {2051-1434 (Print) 2051-1434 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1093/conphys/coy056}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30364036}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2149, author = {Lasage, Ralph and Verburg, Peter H.}, title = {Evaluation of small scale water harvesting techniques for semi-arid environments}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {118}, pages = {48-57}, keywords = {Adaptation Climate change Water supply Drinking water Community based Costs}, ISSN = {0140-1963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.02.019}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196315000555}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2150, author = {Laufkötter, Charlotte and Zscheischler, Jakob and Frölicher, Thomas L}, title = {High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming}, journal = {Science}, volume = {369}, number = {6511}, pages = {1621-1625}, ISSN = {0036-8075}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba0690}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2151, author = {Laurance, William F. and Sloan, Sean and Weng, Lingfei and Sayer, Jeffrey A.}, title = {Estimating the Environmental Costs of Africa’s Massive “Development Corridors”}, journal = {Current Biology}, volume = {25}, number = {24}, pages = {3202-3208}, abstract = {Summary In sub-Saharan Africa, dozens of major “development corridors” have been proposed or are being created to increase agricultural production [1, 2, 3, 4], mineral exports [5, 6, 7], and economic integration. The corridors involve large-scale expansion of infrastructure such as roads, railroads, pipelines, and port facilities and will open up extensive areas of land to new environmental pressures [1, 4, 8]. We assessed the potential environmental impacts of 33 planned or existing corridors that, if completed, would total over 53,000 km in length and crisscross much of the African continent. We mapped each corridor and estimated human occupancy (using the distribution of persistent night-lights) and environmental values (endangered and endemic vertebrates, plant diversity, critical habitats, carbon storage, and climate-regulation services) inside a 50-km-wide band overlaid onto each corridor. We also assessed the potential for each corridor to facilitate increases in agricultural production. The corridors varied considerably in their environmental values, and many were only sparsely populated. Because of marginal soils or climates, some corridors appear to have only modest agricultural potential. Collectively, the corridors would bisect over 400 existing protected areas and could degrade a further ∼1,800 by promoting habitat disruption near or inside the reserves. We conclude that many of the development corridors will promote serious and largely irreversible environmental changes and should proceed only if rigorous mitigation and protection measures can be employed. Some planned corridors with high environmental values and limited agricultural benefits should possibly be cancelled altogether. Video Abstract}, ISSN = {0960-9822}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2015.10.046}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982215013093}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2152, author = {Laurie, Sunette M. and Faber, Mieke and Claasen, Nicole}, title = {Incorporating orange-fleshed sweet potato into the food system as a strategy for improved nutrition: The context of South Africa}, journal = {Food Research International}, volume = {104}, pages = {77-85}, keywords = {Government priorities Natural food Value chain Vitamin A}, ISSN = {0963-9969}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2017.09.016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0963996917305781}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2153, author = {Lawlor, Kathleen and Handa, Sudhanshu and Seidenfeld, David}, title = {Cash Transfers Enable Households to Cope with Agricultural Production and Price Shocks: Evidence from Zambia}, journal = {The Journal of Development Studies}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {209-226}, ISSN = {0022-0388}, DOI = {10.1080/00220388.2017.1393519}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2017.1393519}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2154, author = {Lazenby, Melissa J. and Todd, Martin C. and Chadwick, Robin and Wang, Yi}, title = {Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {31}, number = {12}, pages = {4807-4826}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0311.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/12/jcli-d-17-0311.1.xml}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2155, author = {Le Maitre, David C. and Blignaut, James N. and Clulow, Alistair and Dzikiti, Sebinasi and Everson, Colin S. and Görgens, André H. M. and Gush, Mark B.}, title = {Impacts of Plant Invasions on Terrestrial Water Flows in South Africa}, booktitle = {Biological Invasions in South Africa}, editor = {van Wilgen, Brian W. and Measey, John and Richardson, David M. and Wilson, John R. and Zengeya, Tsungai A.}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, pages = {431-457}, abstract = {Considerable advances have been made since the first estimates of the impacts of invasive alien plants on water resources in the early 1990s. A large body of evidence shows that invasive alien plants can increase transpiration and evaporation losses and thus reduce river flows and mean annual runoff. Riparian invasions, and those in areas where groundwater is accessible, have 1.2–2 times the impact of invasions in dryland areas. The magnitude of the impacts is directly related to differences between the invading species and the dominant native species in size, rooting depth and leaf phenology. Information on the impacts has been successfully used to compare the water use of invasive plants and different land cover classes, to quantify the water resource benefits of control measures, and to prioritise areas for control operations. Nationally, the impacts of invasive alien plants on surface water runoff are estimated at 1.44–2.44 billion m3 per year. The most affected primary catchments (>5% reduction in mean annual runoff) are located in the Western and Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal. If no remedial action is taken, reductions in surface water runoff could increase to 2.59–3.15 billion m3 per year, about 50% higher than current reductions. This review illustrates the importance of measuring water-use over as wide a range of species as possible, and combining this with information from remote sensing to extrapolate the results to landscapes and catchments. These methods will soon provide much more robust estimates of water use by alien plants at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. The results of these studies can be used in water supply system studies to estimate the impacts on the assured yields. This information can also be used by catchment water resource managers to guide decision-makers when prioritising areas for clearing and rehabilitation, and for targeting species for control measures.}, ISBN = {978-3-030-32394-3}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-030-32394-3_15}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32394-3_15}, year = {2020}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2156, author = {Leal Filho, Walter and Balogun, Abdul-Lateef and Ayal, Desalegn Yayeh and Bethurem, E Matthew and Murambadoro, Miriam and Mambo, Julia and Taddese, Habitamu and Tefera, Gebrekidan Worku and Nagy, Gustavo J and Fudjumdjum, Hubert}, title = {Strengthening climate change adaptation capacity in Africa-case studies from six major African cities and policy implications}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {86}, pages = {29-37}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.05.004}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2157, author = {Leck, Hayley and Pelling, Mark and Adelekan, Ibidun and Dodman, David and Issaka, Hamadou and Johnson, Cassidy and Manda, Mtafu and Mberu, Blessing and Nwokocha, Ezebunwa and Osuteye, Emmanuel and Boubacar, Soumana}, title = {Towards Risk-Sensitive and Transformative Urban Development in Sub Saharan Africa}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, abstract = {Risk-sensitive urban development is required to reduce accumulated risk and to better consider risk when planning new developments. To deliver a sustainable city for all requires a more frank and comprehensive focus on procedure: On who makes decisions, under which frameworks, based upon what kind of data or knowledge, and with what degree and direction of accountability? Acting on these procedural questions is the promise of transformative urban development. This paper explores the status of risk sensitive and transformative urban development and the scope for transition towards these components of sustainability in urban sub-Saharan Africa through the lens of diverse city cases: Karonga (Malawi), Ibadan (Nigeria), Niamey (Niger) and Nairobi (Kenya). The paper draws from a 3-year research and capacity building programme called Urban Africa: Risk Knowledge that aims to address gaps in data, understandings and capacity to break cycles of risk accumulation. A common analytical framework is presented to help identify blockages and opportunities for transition towards a risk-sensitive and transformative urban development. This framework is then illustrated through each city in turn and a concluding discussion reflects on city observations to draw out recommendations for city level and wider action and research partnerships.}, keywords = {risk-sensitive development transition transformative urban development sub-Saharan Africa}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su10082645}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2158, author = {Leck, Hayley and Roberts, Debra}, title = {What lies beneath: understanding the invisible aspects of municipal climate change governance}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {13}, pages = {61-67}, ISSN = {1877-3435}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2015.02.004}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343515000172}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2159, author = {Leck, Hayley and Simon, David}, title = {Local Authority Responses to Climate Change in South Africa: The Challenges of Transboundary Governance}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {10}, number = {7}, pages = {2542}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su10072542}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/7/2542}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2160, author = {Lee, Alan T. K. and Barnard, Phoebe}, title = {Endemic birds of the Fynbos biome: a conservation assessment and impacts of climate change}, journal = {Bird Conservation International}, volume = {26}, number = {1}, pages = {52-68}, abstract = {The South African Fynbos biome, a global biodiversity hotspot with high endemism and species richness, has six endemic bird species. These are important not only intrinsically, but also for ecological functioning and as flagships for South Africa’s economically valuable avitourism sector. Little is known about population sizes or realised distribution ranges of these six species, but projected range modelling based on occurrence from the South African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP) has suggested these species are vulnerable to climate change. We estimate global population sizes for these six endemics based on densities calculated from two intensive biome-wide point count surveys in 2012. We modelled regions of suitable climatic space, from which we established that mean annual temperature and the temperature of the warmest quarter of the year appear to limit Cape Rock-jumper Chaetops frenatus and Protea Canary Serinus leucopterus ranges. Both species have seen an apparent > 30% decrease in range and reporting rates (a proxy for abundance) in the twenty years between SABAP atlas periods (1987–1991 and 2007–ongoing). The Cape Rock-jumper result is unexpected: encounter rates are higher in shorter vegetation, dry slopes and habitats with more recent occurrence of fire – all proxies for proximate causes of climate change on the Fynbos. Although coastal plains are highly transformed, mountain Fynbos is the best protected of all the world’s Mediterranean-climate habitats, with relatively little anthropogenic land transformation. Long term weather datasets from the Fynbos demonstrate significant warming since 1960. We conclude from these lines of evidence that these decreases are consistent with the loss of suitable climate space and inability of these species to adjust physiologically to increasing temperatures.}, ISSN = {0959-2709}, DOI = {10.1017/S0959270914000537}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/endemic-birds-of-the-fynbos-biome-a-conservation-assessment-and-impacts-of-climate-change/0B30146A857D9E1FC718B5EF63224B6E}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2161, author = {Lee, K. W. and Hong, M}, title = {Relative Effectiveness of Various Development Finance Flows: A Comparative Study}, journal = {KD Journal of Economic Policy}, volume = {40}, number = {3}, pages = {91-115}, DOI = {10.23895/KDIJEP.2018.40.3.91}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2162, author = {Lee, Tien Ming and Markowitz, Ezra M. and Howe, Peter D. and Ko, Chia-Ying and Leiserowitz, Anthony A.}, title = {Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, pages = {1014-1020}, ISSN = {1758-678X 1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2728}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2728}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2163, author = {Leedale, Joseph and Jones, Anne and Caminade, Cyril and Morse, Andrew}, title = {A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever}, journal = {Geospatial health}, volume = {11}, pages = {394}, DOI = {10.4081/gh.2016.394}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2164, author = {Lefore, Nicole and Closas, Alvar and Schmitter, Petra}, title = {Solar for all: A framework to deliver inclusive and environmentally sustainable solar irrigation for smallholder agriculture}, journal = {Energy Policy}, volume = {154}, pages = {112313}, keywords = {Solar technology Irrigation Sustainability Policy Smallholder agriculture}, ISSN = {0301-4215}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112313}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421521001828}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2165, author = {Lelieveld, Johannes and Proestos, Yiannis and Hadjinicolaou, Panos and Tanarhte, Meryem and Tyrlis, Evangelos and Zittis, George}, title = {Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {137}, number = {1-2}, pages = {245–260}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2166, author = {Lempert, Robert and Boehlert, Brent and Groves, David and Neumann, James E. and Strzepek, Kenneth M. and Broad, Oliver and Sridharan, Vignesh and Cervigni, Raffaello}, title = {Adaptation to Climate Change in Infrastructure Planning}, booktitle = {Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors}, editor = {Cervigni, Raffaello and Liden, Rikard and Neumann, James E. and Strzepek, Kenneth M. }, publisher = {The World Bank}, address = {Washington, DC}, chapter = {4}, pages = {103-130}, ISBN = {978-1-4648-0466-3}, DOI = {10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3_ch6}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0466-3_ch6}, year = {2015}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2167, author = {Leone, M. and D'Ippoliti, D. and De Sario, M. and Analitis, A. and Menne, B. and Katsouyanni, K. and De' Donato, F. K. and Basagana, X. and Salah, A. B. and Casimiro, E. and Dortbudak, Z. and Iniguez, C. and Peretz, C. and Wolf, T. and Michelozzi, P.}, title = {A time series study on the effects of heat on mortality and evaluation of heterogeneity into European and Eastern-Southern Mediterranean cities: results of EU CIRCE project}, journal = {Environ Health}, volume = {12}, pages = {55}, keywords = {Adolescent Adult Africa, Northern/epidemiology Age Factors Aged Cause of Death Child Child, Preschool Cities Climate Female Heat Stress Disorders/etiology/*mortality Hot Temperature/adverse effects Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Male Mediterranean Region/epidemiology Middle Aged Middle East/epidemiology Mortality/*trends Regression Analysis Seasons Time Factors Urban Health Young Adult}, ISSN = {1476-069x}, DOI = {10.1186/1476-069x-12-55}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3716565/pdf/1476-069X-12-55.pdf}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2168, author = {Lequechane, Joaquim Domingos and Mahumane, Arlete and Chale, Falume and Nhabomba, Crescêncio and Salomão, Cristolde and Lameira, Clemente and Chicumbe, Sérgio and Semá Baltazar, Cynthia}, title = {Mozambique’s response to cyclone Idai: how collaboration and surveillance with water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions were used to control a cholera epidemic}, journal = {Infectious Diseases of Poverty}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {68}, abstract = {Cyclone Idai, which hit Mozambique in March 2019, was one of the worst climate-related natural disasters on record in the Southern Hemisphere causing massive destruction of housing and disruption to vital infrastructure including the electrical grid, communications and water supply. Almost two million people were affected with over 600 deaths, hundreds of thousands of people displaced accompanied by rapid spread of cholera. We describe emergency measures taken by the Government of Mozambique, in collaboration with multilateral partners, to establish a real-time disease surveillance system, implement interventions recommended by a Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) taskforce and rapidly scale up a massive community vaccination program to control a cholera epidemic.}, ISSN = {2049-9957}, DOI = {10.1186/s40249-020-00692-5}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00692-5}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2169, author = {Leßmeister, Anna and Schumann, Katharina and Lykke, Anne Mette and Heubach, Katja and Thiombiano, Adjima and Hahn, Karen}, title = {Substitution of the most important and declining wild food species in southeast Burkina Faso}, journal = {Flora et Vegetatio Sudano-Sambesica}, volume = {18}, pages = {11-20}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.21248/fvss.18.29}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2170, author = {Levy, B. S. and Patz, J. A.}, title = {Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice}, journal = {Ann Glob Health}, volume = {81}, number = {3}, pages = {310-22}, keywords = {Animals *Climate Change *Developing Countries Disease Vectors Drinking Water Foodborne Diseases *Global Health Global Warming Heat Stress Disorders *Human Rights Humans Malnutrition Public Health Respiratory Tract Diseases *Social Justice Waterborne Diseases climate change human rights inequalities low-income countries public health}, ISSN = {2214-9996}, DOI = {10.1016/j.aogh.2015.08.008}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2171, author = {Levy, Karen and Woster, Andrew P and Goldstein, Rebecca S and Carlton, Elizabeth J}, title = {Untangling the impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases: a systematic review of relationships between diarrheal diseases and temperature, rainfall, flooding, and drought}, journal = {Environmental science & technology}, volume = {50}, number = {10}, pages = {4905-4922}, ISSN = {0013-936X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b06186}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2172, author = {Lewin, Paul A. and Fisher, Monica and Weber, Bruce}, title = {Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi}, journal = {Agricultural Economics}, volume = {43}, number = {2}, pages = {191-204}, ISSN = {0169-5150}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00576.x}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00576.x}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2173, author = {Lewis, Simon L and Wheeler, Charlotte E and Mitchard, Edward TA and Koch, Alexander}, title = {Restoring natural forests is the best way to remove atmospheric carbon}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {568}, pages = {25-28}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-01026-8}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2174, author = {Li, Chao and Zwiers, Francis and Zhang, Xuebin and Li, Guilong and Sun, Ying and Wehner, Michael}, title = {Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {34}, number = {9}, pages = {3441-3460}, DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/9/JCLI-D-19-1013.1.xml}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2175, author = {Li, Dan and Christakos, George and Ding, Xinxin and Wu, Jiaping}, title = {Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {556}, pages = {1139-1152}, abstract = {Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product’s role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.}, keywords = {TRMM Rainfall Water balance SWAT Tiaoxi catchment}, ISSN = {0022-1694}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.006}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169417300070}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2176, author = {Li, Jia and Mullan, Michael and Helgeson, Jennifer}, title = {Improving the practice of economic analysis of climate change adaptation}, journal = {Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis}, volume = {5}, number = {3}, pages = {445}, ISSN = {2194-5888}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1515/jbca-2014-9004}, url = {https://www.degruyter.com/view/journals/jbca/5/3/article-p445.xml}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2177, author = {Lieber, Mark and Chin-Hong, Peter and Whittle, Henry J. and Hogg, Robert and Weiser, Sheri D.}, title = {The Synergistic Relationship Between Climate Change and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: A Conceptual Framework}, journal = {AIDS and Behavior}, volume = {25}, number = {7}, pages = {2266-2277}, ISSN = {1573-3254}, DOI = {10.1007/s10461-020-03155-y}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10461-020-03155-y}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2178, author = {Liebmann, Brant and Hoerling, Martin P. and Funk, Chris and Bladé, Ileana and Dole, Randall M. and Allured, Dave and Quan, Xiaowei and Pegion, Philip and Eischeid, Jon K.}, title = {Understanding Recent Eastern Horn of Africa Rainfall Variability and Change}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {27}, number = {23}, pages = {8630-8645}, keywords = {Africa,Climate variability,Interannual variability,Seasonal variability,Trends,Tropical variability}, ISSN = {0894-8755 1520-0442}, DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-13-00714.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2179, author = {Lindley, Sarah J. and Cook, Penny A. and Dennis, Matthew and Gilchrist, Anna}, title = {Biodiversity, Physical Health and Climate Change: A Synthesis of Recent Evidence}, booktitle = {Biodiversity and Health in the Face of Climate Change}, editor = {Marselle, Melissa R. and Stadler, Jutta and Korn, Horst and Irvine, Katherine N. and Bonn, Aletta}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, chapter = {Chapter 2}, pages = {17-46}, ISBN = {978-3-030-02317-1}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-030-02318-8_2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02318-8_2}, year = {2019}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2180, author = {Linke, Andrew M. and Witmer, Frank D. W. and O’Loughlin, John and McCabe, J. Terrence and Tir, Jaroslav}, title = {Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, volume = {62}, number = {7}, pages = {1544-1578}, ISSN = {0022-0027}, DOI = {10.1177/0022002717698018}, url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002717698018}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2181, author = {Lipper, Leslie and Thornton, Philip and Campbell, Bruce M. and Baedeker, Tobias and Braimoh, Ademola and Bwalya, Martin and Caron, Patrick and Cattaneo, Andrea and Garrity, Dennis and Henry, Kevin and Hottle, Ryan and Jackson, Louise and Jarvis, Andrew and Kossam, Fred and Mann, Wendy and McCarthy, Nancy and Meybeck, Alexandre and Neufeldt, Henry and Remington, Tom and Sen, Pham Thi and Sessa, Reuben and Shula, Reynolds and Tibu, Austin and Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.}, title = {Climate-smart agriculture for food security}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {4}, number = {12}, pages = {1068-1072}, abstract = {Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach to the development of agricultural systems intended to help support food security under climate change. This Perspective outlines a set of CSA actions needed from public, private and civil society stakeholders: building evidence; increasing local institutional effectiveness; fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and linking climate and agricultural financing.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2437}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2437}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2182, author = {Liu, Baoyin and Siu, Yim Ling and Mitchell, Gordon}, title = {A quantitative model for estimating risk from multiple interacting natural hazards: an application to northeast Zhejiang, China}, journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment}, volume = {31}, pages = {1319-1340}, DOI = {10.1007/s00477-016-1250-6}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2183, author = {Liu, Jianguo and Hull, Vanessa and Godfray, H. Charles J. and Tilman, David and Gleick, Peter and Hoff, Holger and Pahl-Wostl, Claudia and Xu, Zhenci and Chung, Min Gon and Sun, Jing and Li, Shuxin}, title = {Nexus approaches to global sustainable development}, journal = {Nature Sustainability}, volume = {1}, number = {9}, pages = {466-476}, ISSN = {2398-9629}, DOI = {10.1038/s41893-018-0135-8}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2184, author = {Liu, Wenbin and Lim, Wee Ho and Sun, Fubao and Mitchell, Dann and Wang, Hong and Chen, Deliang and Bethke, Ingo and Shiogama, Hideo and Fischer, Erich}, title = {Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {45}, number = {18}, pages = {9803-9813}, abstract = {Abstract Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). We found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is ~117 million people.}, keywords = {1.5 °C warming water availability global scale shortage population}, ISSN = {0094-8276}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2185, author = {Liu, Wenbin and Sun, Fubao and Lim, Wee Ho and Zhang, Jie and Wang, Hong and Shiogama, Hideo and Zhang, Yuqing}, title = {Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 C warmer worlds}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {267-283}, ISSN = {2190-4979}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2186, author = {Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis S. O. and Pummel, Holly and Tambo, Justice A. and Olabisi, Laura Schmitt and Osuntade, Olubukola}, title = {Perceptions and exposure to climate events along agricultural value chains: Evidence from Nigeria}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {264}, number = {January}, keywords = {Adaptation Climate change perception Food system Mitigation Nigeria Value chain}, DOI = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110430}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @misc{RN2187, author = {Liwenga, Emma and Pauline, Noah and Tumbo, Madaka and Osima, Sarah and Mpeta, Emmanual and Norbert, Joel and Stendel, Martin and Stisen, Simon and Villholth, Karen and Birch-Thomsen, Torben and D’haen, Sarah }, title = {Climate related projections on future water resources and human adaptation in the Great Ruaha River Basin in Tanzania}, DOI = {10.13140/RG.2.1.4754.6326}, url = {http://repository.udsm.ac.tz:8080/xmlui/handle/20.500.11810/2255?show=full}, year = {2015}, type = {Generic} } @article{RN2188, author = {Lobell, David B. and Bänziger, Marianne and Magorokosho, Cosmos and Vivek, Bindiganavile}, title = {Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {42-45}, keywords = {Climate change adaptation}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate1043}, url = {www.nature.com/natureclimatechange}, year = {2011}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2189, author = {Loevinsohn, M.}, title = {The 2001-03 Famine and the Dynamics of HIV in Malawi: A Natural Experiment}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {10}, number = {9}, pages = {e0135108}, keywords = {Adolescent Adult Agriculture/economics Climate Change Female *Food Supply/economics HIV Infections/*epidemiology Humans Hunger Malawi/epidemiology Male Population Dynamics Poverty Rural Population Socioeconomic Factors Starvation/*complications/*epidemiology Transients and Migrants Young Adult}, ISSN = {1932-6203}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0135108}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4558031/pdf/pone.0135108.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2190, author = {Longo-Mbenza, B. and Phanzu-Mbete, L. B. and M'Buyamba-Kabangu, J. R. and Tonduangu, K. and Mvunzu, M. and Muvova, D. and Lukoki-Luila, E. and Bayekula, M. and Odio, W. and Kintoki, V. and Mbala-Mukendi, M. and Tshiamala, P. and Kilembi, M. and Katalay, L. and Lelo-Tshinkwela, M. and Ndoma, E. K. and Mpaka, M.}, title = {Hematocrit and stroke in black Africans under tropical climate and meteorological influence}, journal = {Ann Med Interne (Paris)}, volume = {150}, number = {3}, pages = {171-7}, keywords = {Adolescent Adult *African Continental Ancestry Group Aged Aged, 80 and over Atmospheric Pressure Body Temperature/physiology Brain Ischemia/etiology Cerebral Hemorrhage/etiology Cerebrovascular Disorders/*etiology Democratic Republic of the Congo Female Fibrinogen/analysis Follow-Up Studies Heart Rate/physiology *Hematocrit Humans Hypertension/complications Linear Models Logistic Models Male *Meteorological Concepts Middle Aged Prospective Studies Risk Factors Survival Rate Temperature *Tropical Climate}, ISSN = {0003-410X (Print) 0003-410X (Linking)}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10445086}, year = {1999}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2191, author = {Loucks, Daniel P. and van Beek, Eelco}, title = {Water Resource Systems Modeling: Its Role in Planning and Management}, booktitle = {Water Resource Systems Planning and Management: An Introduction to Methods, Models, and Applications}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, address = {Cham}, pages = {51-72}, ISBN = {978-3-319-44234-1}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-319-44234-1_2}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44234-1_2}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2192, author = {Lovelock, Catherine E. and Duarte, Carlos M.}, title = {Dimensions of Blue Carbon and emerging perspectives}, journal = {Biology Letters}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {20180781}, DOI = {10.1098/rsbl.2018.0781}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2018.0781}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2193, author = {Lovschal, M. and Bocher, P. K. and Pilgaard, J. and Amoke, I. and Odingo, A. and Thuo, A. and Svenning, J. C.}, title = {Fencing bodes a rapid collapse of the unique Greater Mara ecosystem}, journal = {Sci Rep}, volume = {7}, pages = {41450}, keywords = {*Ecosystem Image Processing, Computer-Assisted Kenya Satellite Communications}, ISSN = {2045-2322 (Electronic) 2045-2322 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1038/srep41450}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28120950}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2194, author = {Low, Andrea J. and Frederix, Koen and McCracken, Stephen and Manyau, Salome and Gummerson, Elizabeth and Radin, Elizabeth and Davia, Stefania and Longwe, Herbert and Ahmed, Nahima and Parekh, Bharat and Findley, Sally and Schwitters, Amee}, title = {Association between severe drought and HIV prevention and care behaviors in Lesotho: A population-based survey 2016–2017}, journal = {PLOS Medicine}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {e1002727}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1002727}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002727}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2195, author = {Lowe, Benjamin S. and Jacobson, Susan K. and Anold, Happiness and Mbonde, Athanasio S. and O’Reilly, Catherine M.}, title = {Adapting to change in inland fisheries: analysis from Lake Tanganyika, East Africa}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1765-1776}, ISSN = {1436-3798 1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-019-01516-5}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-019-01516-5}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2196, author = {Ludwig, F. and Franssen, W. and Jans, W. and Beyenne, T. and Kruijt, B. and Supit, I.}, title = {Climate change impacts on the Congo Basin region}, institution = {Climate Service Centre}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2197, author = {Lumbroso, Darren}, title = {How can policy makers in sub-Saharan Africa make early warning systems more effective? The case of Uganda}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {27}, pages = {530-540}, keywords = {Early warning systems Weather-related hazards Sub-Saharan Africa Uganda}, ISSN = {2212-4209}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.11.017}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420917303412}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2198, author = {Lumbroso, Darren}, title = {Flood risk management in Africa}, journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management}, volume = {13}, number = {3}, ISSN = {1753-318X 1753-318X}, DOI = {10.1111/jfr3.12612}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2199, author = {Lund Schlamovitz, Josefine and Becker, Per}, title = {Differentiated vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation to water shortage in Gaborone, Botswana}, journal = {International Journal of Water Resources Development}, volume = {37}, number = {2}, pages = {278-299}, ISSN = {0790-0627 1360-0648}, DOI = {10.1080/07900627.2020.1756752}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2200, author = {Lunga, W. and Musarurwa, C.}, title = {Exploiting indigenous knowledge commonwealth to mitigate disasters: from the archives of vulnerable communities in Zimbabwe}, journal = {Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {22-29}, note = {ISI Document Delivery No.: DC9QK Times Cited: 8 Cited Reference Count: 21 Lunga, Wilfred Musarurwa, Charles Lunga, Wilfred/N-6398-2016; lunga, wilfred/AAM-1456-2020 Lunga, Wilfred/0000-0002-4673-2907; 8 0 35 Natl inst science communication-niscair New delhi 0975-1068}, abstract = {This research explored the relationship between vulnerability and the use of indigenous knowledge in mitigating disasters particularly those linked to food security and preservation of forest resources in some communities in Zimbabwe. This focus on provision of food was important since food issues have an immediate impact on communities and for vulnerable communities forest resources are also linked to food security. Data was collected through both formal and informal interviews, and group discussions with the elderly and traditional leaders in Matebeleland and Mashonaland provinces of Zimbabwe, hence a qualitative research approach was used. Although the findings are unique to the communities involved, it is important to note that vulnerable communities do possess a wide range of indigenous measures to mitigate disaster risk. Firstly, it is the realisation that technology does not necessarily refer to modern or objective science, but solutions that lead to sustainable livelihoods for local communities, which include environmentally based early warning signs which allow them to take precautions before a disaster like drought, flood, pests, etc., occurs as well as measures to reduce the impact of such a disaster. Secondly, production, harvesting and conservation have always been inbuilt in the farming techniques of these rural communities and mushrooms that form a regular part of the diet and provide protein for rural communities are a good example. Since time immemorial they have always been preserved within their natural habitats and women who have always been able to distinguish edible mushrooms from toxic ones have always known how to stimulate their growth by applying crop waste or ash as fertilizers to the ground on which they grow. Lastly it is natural for some indigenous techniques to lie dormant as if they are extinct. This is because every generation makes its own contribution to improvise and adapt the knowledge system in line with the ever changing climatic conditions. The article recommends that since the proportion of non-sustainable practices in traditional knowledge systems is much smaller than the benefits accrued through its use in the contemporary modern life and belief systems, there should be development, use and adaption of technologies that have links with indigenous knowledge systems. Developing contextually relevant educational processes that identify and build upon local knowledge and expertise for disaster risk reduction is needed and where possible, expressed in local language and context. In short vulnerable villagers should have more legitimate authority over natural resources for they are more responsive than local government authorities.}, keywords = {Indigenous Knowledge Technology Disaster mitigation Disaster risk reduction Zimbabwe traditional ecological knowledge qualitative research management Plant Sciences}, ISSN = {0972-5938}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2201, author = {Lunga, W. and Pathias Bongo, P. and van Niekerk, D. and Musarurwa, C.}, title = {Disability and disaster risk reduction as an incongruent matrix: Lessons from rural Zimbabwe}, journal = {Jamba}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {648}, note = {Lunga, Wilfred Pathias Bongo, Paradzayi van Niekerk, Dewald Musarurwa, Charles eng South Africa Jamba. 2019 Apr 16;11(1):648. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v11i1.648. eCollection 2019.}, abstract = {The policy thrust of disaster risk reduction initiatives is in many instances tailored towards able-bodied people. This is at the expense of those challenged in many facets such as physically, mentally and other forms of disability. The suggestion for disability to be mainstreamed into disaster risk reduction initiatives has been made imperative by the late shift in hazard and disaster thinking at local, national and international levels. The increasing intensity and frequency of weather-related hazards and disasters, driven by climate change, has provided fertile ground on which mainstreaming ideas and policies have proved to be incongruent. This research paper focuses on two key topics in the disaster science field: pre-disaster risk reduction planning and post-disaster emergency response activities. It is based on experiences from disaster risk reduction projects in Bulilima and Mangwe districts in southern Zimbabwe between 2006 and 2014. A qualitative research methodology was employed, and data were collected using in-depth personal interviews, observations and focus group discussions. Both able-bodied people and people living with disabilities (PWDs) were part of the study. Main findings show that PWDs were not included in the formulation of disaster risk reduction measures. Other important findings were the variable nature of how people define or view disability, and even believe that disability has a purpose. Most of the so-called normal people lack the understanding of what constitutes a disaster to such an extent that even disability is regarded as a disaster. The paper unravels the need to have a relook that would bring PWDs into the centre of civil protection decision-making and policy formulation in Zimbabwe. Keywords: disability; disaster risk reduction; disaster; vulnerability; Zimbabwe.}, ISSN = {1996-1421 (Electronic) 1996-1421 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.4102/jamba.v11i1.648}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31049163}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2202, author = {Luo, Xian and Wu, Wenqi and He, Daming and Li, Yungang and Ji, Xuan}, title = {Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin}, journal = {Chinese geographical science}, volume = {29}, number = {1}, pages = {13-25}, abstract = {Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets (gauge observations, inverse distance weighted (IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning. }, keywords = {Hydrological simulation Satellite-based precipitation estimates Spatial distribution of precipitation International river The Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin}, ISSN = {1002-0063}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-019-1014-6}, url = {http://www.springerlink.com/content/1002-0063}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2203, author = {Lurie, M. N. }, title = {The Epidemiology of Migration and HIV/AIDS in South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies}, volume = {32}, number = {4}, pages = {649-666}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2204, author = {Lutz, Wolfgang and Muttarak, Raya and Striessnig, Erich}, title = {Universal education is key to enhanced climate adaptation}, journal = {Science}, volume = {346}, number = {6213}, pages = {1061-1062}, DOI = {10.1126/science.1257975}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2205, author = {Lwasa, Shuaib and Buyana, Kareem and Kasaija, Peter and Mutyaba, Job}, title = {Scenarios for adaptation and mitigation in urban Africa under 1.5 °C global warming}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {30}, pages = {52-58}, ISSN = {18773435}, DOI = {10.1016/j.cosust.2018.02.012}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2206, author = {Lwasa, Shuaib and Mugagga, Frank and Wahab, Bolanle and Simon, David and Connors, John and Griffith, Corrie}, title = {Urban and peri-urban agriculture and forestry: Transcending poverty alleviation to climate change mitigation and adaptation}, journal = {Urban Climate}, volume = {7}, pages = {92-106}, keywords = {Urban agriculture Urban forestry Climate Change Adaptation Mitigation Urban Africa}, ISSN = {22120955}, DOI = {10.1016/j.uclim.2013.10.007}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095513000552}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2207, author = {Lyon, Bradfield and Dinku, Tufa and Raman, Anita and Thomson, Madeleine C.}, title = {Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {064015}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa64e6}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa64e6}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2208, author = {Lyon, Bradfield and Vigaud, Nicolas}, title = {Unraveling East Africa's Climate Paradox}, booktitle = {Climate Extremes}, editor = {Wang, S. S. and Yoon, J. and Funk, C. C. and Gillies, R. R.}, series = {Geophysical Monograph Series}, publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Inc}, pages = {265-281}, ISBN = {9781119068020}, DOI = {10.1002/9781119068020.ch16}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9781119068020.ch16}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2209, author = {M’Bra, Richard K. and Kone, Brama and Soro, Dramane P. and N’krumah, Raymond T. A. S. and Soro, Nagnin and Ndione, Jacques A. and Sy, Ibrahima and Ceccato, Pietro and Ebi, Kristie L. and Utzinger, Jürg and Schindler, Christian and Cissé, Guéladio}, title = {Impact of climate variability on the transmission risk of malaria in northern Côte d'Ivoire}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {e0182304}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0182304}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182304}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2210, author = {Maarleveld, T. J. and Guérin, Ulrike}, title = {Manual for Activities directed at Underwater Cultural Heritage}, institution = {UNESCO}, type = {Guidelines to the Annex of the UNESCO 2001 Convention}, month = {2013}, url = {http://www.unesco.org/culture/en/underwater/pdf/UCH-Manual.pdf}, year = {2013}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2211, author = {Mabuya, Bongokuhle and Scholes, Mary}, title = {The Three Little Houses: A Comparative Study of Indoor and Ambient Temperatures in Three Low-Cost Housing Types in Gauteng and Mpumalanga, South Africa}, journal = {International journal of environmental research and public health}, volume = {17}, number = {10}, pages = {3524}, keywords = {*ambient temperatures *climate change *construction materials *indoor temperatures *low-cost housing *thermal comfort perceptions}, ISSN = {1660-4601 1661-7827}, DOI = {10.3390/ijerph17103524}, url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32443548 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7277949/}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2212, author = {Macamo, C. C. F. and Massuanganhe, E. and Nicolau, D. K. and Bandeira, S. O. and Adams, J. B.}, title = {Mangrove’s response to cyclone Eline (2000): What is happening 14 years later}, journal = {Aquatic Botany}, volume = {134}, pages = {10-17}, ISSN = {03043770}, DOI = {10.1016/j.aquabot.2016.05.004}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2213, author = {MacDonald, A. M. and Bonsor, H. C. and Dochartaigh, B. É Ó and Taylor, R. G.}, title = {Quantitative maps of groundwater resources in Africa}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024009}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2214, author = {Mach, Katharine J. and Kraan, Caroline M. and Adger, W. Neil and Buhaug, Halvard and Burke, Marshall and Fearon, James D. and Field, Christopher B. and Hendrix, Cullen S. and Maystadt, Jean-Francois and O’Loughlin, John and Roessler, Philip and Scheffran, Jürgen and Schultz, Kenneth A. and von Uexkull, Nina}, title = {Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {571}, pages = {193-197}, keywords = {Climate change adaptation change impacts}, DOI = {10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2215, author = {Macháček, Jan}, title = {Typology of Environmental Impacts of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining in African Great Lakes Region}, journal = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, abstract = {Artisanal and small-scale mining is a widespread economic sector in the African Great Lakes Region, where it has an adverse impact on the population’s environment. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and consider the typology of the environmental impacts of artisanal and small-scale mining, in particular, the anthropogenic influences on topography with regard to the methods used in raw material mining. Among the most significant environmental aspects related to artisanal and small-scale mining are deforestation, changes in landscape structure, influence over geomorphological processes and hydrological river regime, chemical pollution of soil and watercourses, influencing soil production capacity. The aforementioned factors can cause health problems such as silicosis, poisoning by methyl orthophosphate, or injury during the mining activity itself. Artisanal and small-scale mining could initiate new geomorphological processes or modify naturally occurring geomorphological processes. These dynamic processes are influenced by the topography of the relief, soil properties, and rock composition. Anthropogenic activity in these cases may lead to faster reshaping (degradation or abrasion) of soil shapes. This study covers a broad understanding of environmental impacts of artisanal and small-scale mining with a focus on anthropogenic influencing.}, keywords = {artisanal and small-scale mining change of landscape environment anthropogenic activities Great Lakes Region}, ISSN = {2071-1050}, DOI = {10.3390/su11113027}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2216, author = {Mackinnon, E. and Ayah, R. and Taylor, R. and Owor, M. and Ssempebwa, J. and Olago, L. D. and Kubalako, R. and Dia, A. T. and Gaye, C. and L, C. Campos and Fottrell, E.}, title = {21st century research in urban WASH and health in sub-Saharan Africa: methods and outcomes in transition}, journal = {Int J Environ Health Res}, volume = {29}, number = {4}, pages = {457-478}, note = {Mackinnon, Eve Ayah, Richard Taylor, Richard Owor, Michael Ssempebwa, John Olago, L Daniel Kubalako, Robinah Dia, Anta Tal Gaye, Cheikh C Campos, Luiza Fottrell, Edward eng Review England Int J Environ Health Res. 2019 Aug;29(4):457-478. doi: 10.1080/09603123.2018.1550193. Epub 2018 Dec 13.}, abstract = {Tackling global inequalities in access to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) remains an urgent issue - 58% of annual diarrhoeal deaths are caused by inadequate WASH provision. A global context of increasing urbanisation, changing demographics and health transitions demands an understanding and impact of WASH on a broad set of health outcomes. We examine the literature, in terms of health outcomes, considering WASH access and interventions in urban sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2017. Our review of studies which evaluate the effectiveness of specific WASH interventions, reveals an emphasis of WASH research on acute communicable diseases, particularly diarrhoeal diseases. In contrast, chronic communicable and non-communicable health outcomes were notable gaps in the literature as well as a lack of focus on cross-cutting issues, such as ageing, well-being and gender equality. We recommend a broader focus of WASH research and interventions in urban Africa to better reflect the demographic and health transitions happening. Abbreviations: CBA: Controlled Before and After; GSD: Government Service Delivery; IWDSSD: International Drinking-Water, Supply and Sanitation Decade (IDWSSD); KAP: Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices; IBD: Irritable Bowel Diseases; MDG: Millennium Development Goals; NTD: Neglected Tropical Diseases; PSSD: Private Sector Service Delivery; SDG: Sustainable Development Goals; SSA: Sub Saharan Africa; SODIS: Solar Disinfection System; STH: Soil Transmitted Helminths; RCT: Randomised Control Trial; WASH: Water Sanitation and Hygiene; WHO: World Health Organization.}, keywords = {Africa South of the Sahara Communicable Disease Control Health Behavior Humans Hygiene/*standards Noncommunicable Diseases/prevention & control Sanitation/*standards *Urban Health/trends Water Supply/*standards Water-borne diseases health outcomes hygiene sanitation urbanisation}, ISSN = {1369-1619 (Electronic) 0960-3123 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1080/09603123.2018.1550193}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30545246}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2217, author = {MacVicar, S. and Berrang-Ford, L. and Harper, S. and Huang, Y. and Namanya Bambaiha, D. and Yang, S.}, title = {Whether weather matters: Evidence of association between in utero meteorological exposures and foetal growth among Indigenous and non-Indigenous mothers in rural Uganda}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {e0179010}, keywords = {Air Pollution Birth Weight/*physiology Climate Change Female Fetal Development/*physiology Humans Infant Infant Mortality *Meteorology Mothers Pregnancy Rural Population Seasons *Weather}, ISSN = {1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0179010}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28591162}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2218, author = {Madonsela, Boipelo and Koop, Stef and Van Leeuwen, Kees and Carden, Kirsty}, title = {Evaluation of Water Governance Processes Required to Transition towards Water Sensitive Urban Design—An Indicator Assessment Approach for the City of Cape Town}, journal = {Water}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {14}, keywords = {Cape Town City Blueprint Approach Climate change adaptation Water governance Water scarcity Water sensitive cities}, ISSN = {2073-4441}, DOI = {10.3390/w11020292}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @inbook{RN2219, author = {Mafongoya, Paramu and Gubba, Augustine and Moodley, Vaneson and Chapoto, Debra and Kisten, Lavinia and Phophi, Mutondwa}, title = {Climate Change and Rapidly Evolving Pests and Diseases in Southern Africa}, pages = {41-57}, DOI = {10.1007/978-3-030-11857-0_4}, year = {2019}, type = {Book Section} } @inbook{RN2220, author = {Mafongoya, P. L. and Jiri, O. and Mubaya, C. P. and Mafongoya, O.}, title = {Using indigenous knowledge for seasonal quality prediction in managing climate risk in sub-Saharan Africa}, booktitle = {Indigenous knowledge systems and climate change management in Africa}, editor = {Mafongoya, P.L. and Ajayi, O.C.}, publisher = {The Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA)}, address = {Wageningen, The Netherlands}, chapter = {3}, pages = {43}, year = {2017}, type = {Book Section} } @article{RN2221, author = {Mahe, G. and Lienou, G. and Descroix, L. and Bamba, F. and Paturel, J. E. and Laraque, A. and Meddi, M. and Habaieb, H. and Adeaga, O. and Dieulin, C. and Chahnez Kotti, F. and Khomsi, K.}, title = {The rivers of Africa: witness of climate change and human impact on the environment}, journal = {Hydrological Processes}, volume = {27}, number = {15}, pages = {2105-2114}, ISSN = {08856087}, DOI = {10.1002/hyp.9813}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2222, author = {Mahl, Daniela and Guenther, Lars and Schäfer, Mike S. and Meyer, Corlia and Siegen, Dario}, title = {“We are a Bit Blind About it”: A Qualitative Analysis of Climate Change-Related Perceptions and Communication Across South African Communities}, journal = {Environmental Communication}, volume = {14}, number = {6}, pages = {802-815}, ISSN = {1752-4032 1752-4040}, DOI = {10.1080/17524032.2020.1736116}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2020.1736116}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2223, author = {Mahmood, Rashid and Jia, Shaofeng and Zhu, Wenbin}, title = {Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {6317}, abstract = {An understanding of climate variability, trends, and prediction for better water resource management and planning in a basin is very important. Since the water resources of the Lake Chad basin (LCB) are highly vulnerable to changing climate, in the present study, a combination of trend analysis methods was used to examine the climate variability and trends for the period of 1951–2015 using observed and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data, and a combination of spectral analysis techniques was used for the prediction of temperature and precipitation using CRU data. Eighty-four percent of the temperature time series indicated extremely strong signals of increasing trends (α = 0.001) and 25–38% of the precipitation time series indicated strong decreasing trends (α = 0.05). Temperature is expected to increase and precipitation is expected to decrease in the future. However, surprisingly, in some regions located in the South, the temperature was predicted to decrease slightly in 2021–2030 relative to 2006–2015. This decrease might occur because these regions are highly protected natural resource areas and forests are frequently present. On the whole, the temperature was predicted to increase by 0.65–1.6 °C and precipitation was predicted to decrease by 13–11% in the next two decades (i.e., 2016–2025 and 2026–2035) relative to 1961–1990. Periodic analysis showed a 20- to 25-year cycle in precipitation in all basins and a 40- to 45-year cycle in temperature but only in the Chari-Logone basin.}, ISSN = {2045-2322}, DOI = {10.1038/s41598-019-42811-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-42811-9}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2224, author = {Maidment, Ross I. and Allan, Richard P. and Black, Emily}, title = {Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {42}, number = {19}, pages = {8155-8164}, ISSN = {0094-8276 1944-8007}, DOI = {10.1002/2015gl065765}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL065765}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2225, author = {Maire, Eva and Graham, Nicholas A. J. and MacNeil, M. Aaron and Lam, Vicky W. Y. and Robinson, James P. W. and Cheung, William W. L. and Hicks, Christina C.}, title = {Micronutrient supply from global marine fisheries under climate change and overfishing}, journal = {Current Biology}, abstract = {Summary Fish are rich in bioavailable micronutrients, such as zinc and iron, deficiencies of which are a global food security concern.1,2 Global marine fisheries yields are threatened by climate change and overfishing,3,4 yet understanding of how these stressors affect the nutrients available from fisheries is lacking.5,6 Here, using global assessments of micronutrient content2 and fisheries catch data,7 we investigate how the vulnerability status of marine fish species8,9 may translate into vulnerability of micronutrient availability at scales of both individual species and entire fishery assemblages for 157 countries. We further quantify the micronutrient evenness of catches to identify countries where interventions can optimize micronutrient supply. Our global analysis, including >800 marine fish species, reveals that, at a species level, micronutrient availability and vulnerability to both climate change and overfishing varies greatly, with tropical species displaying a positive co-tolerance, indicating greater persistence to both stressors at a community level.10 Global fisheries catches had relatively low nutritional vulnerability to fishing. Catches with higher species richness tend to be nutrient dense and evenly distributed but are more vulnerable to climate change, with 40% of countries displaying high vulnerability. Countries with high prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake tend to have the most nutrient-dense catches, but these same fisheries are highly vulnerable to climate change, with relatively lower capacity to adapt.11 Our analysis highlights the need to consolidate fisheries, climate, and food policies to secure the sustainable contribution of fish-derived micronutrients to food and nutrition security.}, keywords = {fisheries ecology vulnerability nutrition micronutrients seafood food and nutrition security}, ISSN = {0960-9822}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2021.06.067}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982221008964}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2226, author = {Makaka, Golden and Meyer, Edson}, title = {Temperature Stability of Traditional and Low-cost Modern Housing in the Eastern Cape, South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Building Physics}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {71-86}, keywords = {temperature stability,fly ash,thermal comfort}, DOI = {10.1177/1744259106065674}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1744259106065674}, year = {2006}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2227, author = {Makara, Sabiti}, title = {Decentralisation and good governance in Africa: A critical review}, journal = {African Journal of Political Science and International Relations}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {22-32}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5897/AJPSIR2016.0973}, url = {https://academicjournals.org/journal/AJPSIR/article-abstract/0E5F1CA56067}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2228, author = {Makate, Clifton}, title = {Local institutions and indigenous knowledge in adoption and scaling of climate-smart agricultural innovations among sub-Saharan smallholder farmers}, journal = {International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {270-287}, ISSN = {1756-8692}, DOI = {10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2018-0055}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-07-2018-0055}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2229, author = {Makate, Clifton and Makate, Marshall and Mango, Nelson and Siziba, Shephard}, title = {Increasing resilience of smallholder farmers to climate change through multiple adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture innovations. Lessons from Southern Africa}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {231}, pages = {858-868}, abstract = {Conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize, and improved legume varieties are key climate change management strategies for smallholder farmers in southern Africa. Their complementary efforts in adaptation to climate change are sternly important for farm productivity and income. This study evaluates factors explaining individual and multiple adoption of climate change management strategies and their differential impacts on productivity and income using a sample of 1172 smallholder farmers from Malawi and Zimbabwe. The study employs multinomial logistic regression to evaluate factors of individual and multiple adoption and regression adjustment with inverse probability weighting to evaluate impacts of the different adoption regimes on farm productivity and income. The results show that multiple adoption of innovations is mostly explained by access to key resources (credit, income and information), level of education and size of land owned by the farmer. More so, the concurrent adoption of conservation agriculture, stress adapted legume varieties and drought tolerant maize has far greater dividends on productivity and income than when considered individually. However, impacts of multiple adoption of the practices are not entirely uniform across different geographic regions and gender. Results suggest that effective institutional and policy efforts targeted towards reducing resource constraints that inhibit farmers' capacity to adopt complementary climate-smart agriculture packages such as conservation agriculture, drought tolerant maize and improved legume varieties must be gender sensitive and context specific.}, keywords = {Climate change management Multiple innovations adoptions Productivity and income Zimbabwe & Malawi}, ISSN = {0301-4797}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.069}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718312039}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2230, author = {Makina, Anesu and Moyo, Theresa}, title = {Mind the gap: institutional considerations for gender-inclusive climate change policy in Sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Local Environment}, volume = {21}, number = {10}, pages = {1185-1197}, ISSN = {1354-9839 1469-6711}, DOI = {10.1080/13549839.2016.1189407}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2231, author = {Makondo, Cuthbert Casey and Thomas, David S. G.}, title = {Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {88}, pages = {83-91}, abstract = {The implementation of climate change response programmes for adaptation and resilience is anchored on western scientific knowledge. However, this has led to a tendency to marginalise indigenous knowledge as it is considered unimportant in this process (Belfer et al., 2017; Lesperance, 2017; Whitfield et al., 2015). Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. In this regard, we think that indigenous knowledge is just as important as scientific knowledge and the two must be integrated through multiple evidence base approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this paper, focussing on African traditional society, we combine oral history with the available literature to examine traditional knowledge and awareness of climate change and related environmental risks. Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success. From spotting and reading the position and shape of the ‘new moon’ to the interpretative correctness of its symbolism in “applied traditional climatology,” and from rain-making rituals to conservation of wetlands and forests. Generally, findings seem to suggest that traditional African knowledge of environmental change may be as old as the society itself, with local knowledge transmitted from one generation to the next. Based on the perceived vulnerability of indigenous communities, many scholars tend to argue generically for the integration of indigenous knowledge into climate change policies and implementation (Ross, 2009; Maldonado et al., 2016; Etchart, 2017). In this paper however, we attempt to supplement these arguments by providing specific and contextualised evidence of indigenous knowledge linked to climate change adaptation. It is demonstrated that indigenous knowledge is neither singular nor universal, but rather, a voluminous, diverse and highly localised source of wisdom. We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities.}, keywords = {Climate change Adaptation strategies Indigenous knowledge Traditional knowledge}, ISSN = {1462-9011}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.014}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118300418}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2232, author = {Malherbe, Johan and Engelbrecht, Francois Alwyn and Landman, Willem Adolf}, title = {Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing}, journal = {Climate dynamics}, volume = {40}, number = {11}, pages = {2867-2886}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1635-2}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2233, author = {Malhi, Yadvinder and Gardner, Toby A. and Goldsmith, Gregory R. and Silman, Miles R. and Zelazowski, Przemyslaw}, title = {Tropical Forests in the Anthropocene}, journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {125-159}, abstract = {The Anthropocene is characterized as an epoch when human influence has begun to fundamentally alter many aspects of the Earth system and many of the planet's biomes. Here, we review and synthesize our understanding of Anthropocene changes in tropical forests. Key facets include deforestation driven by agricultural expansion, timber and wood extraction, the loss of fauna that maintain critical ecological connections, the spread of fire, landscape fragmentation, the spread of second-growth forests, new species invasion and pathogen spread, increasing CO2, and climate change. The patterns of change are spatially heterogeneous, are often characterized by strong interactions among different drivers, can have both large-scale and remote effects, and can play out through ecological cascades over long timescales. As a consequence, most tropical forests are on a trajectory to becoming altered ecosystems, with the degree of alteration dependent on the intensity and duration of the current bottleneck of human-induced pressures. We highlight the importance of this understanding to develop the strategies necessary for shaping the transition of tropical forests through the early Anthropocene, as well as highlight the opportunities and challenges for the tropical forest science community in the coming decades.}, ISSN = {1543-5938}, DOI = {10.1146/annurev-environ-030713-155141}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-030713-155141}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2234, author = {Manatsa, Desmond and Behera, Swadhin K.}, title = {On the Epochal Strengthening in the Relationship between Rainfall of East Africa and IOD}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {26}, number = {15}, pages = {5655-5673}, keywords = {Flood events,Rainfall,Decadal variability,Interdecadal variability,Intraseasonal variability,Trends}, ISSN = {0894-8755 1520-0442}, DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-12-00568.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00568.1}, year = {2013}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2235, author = {Manes, Stella and Costello, Mark J. and Beckett, Heath and Debnath, Anindita and Devenish-Nelson, Eleanor and Grey, Kerry-Anne and Jenkins, Rhosanna and Khan, Tasnuva Ming and Kiessling, Wolfgang and Krause, Cristina and Maharaj, Shobha S. and Midgley, Guy F. and Price, Jeff and Talukdar, Gautam and Vale, Mariana M.}, title = {Endemism increases species' climate change risk in areas of global biodiversity importance}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {257}, pages = {109070}, abstract = {Climate change affects life at global scales and across systems but is of special concern in areas that are disproportionately rich in biological diversity and uniqueness. Using a meta-analytical approach, we analysed >8000 risk projections of the projected impact of climate change on 273 areas of exceptional biodiversity, including terrestrial and marine environments. We found that climate change is projected to negatively impact all assessed areas, but endemic species are consistently more adversely impacted. Terrestrial endemics are projected to be 2.7 and 10 times more impacted than non-endemic natives and introduced species respectively, the latter being overall unaffected by climate change. We defined a high risk of extinction as a loss of >80% due to climate change alone. Of endemic species, 34% and 46% in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and 100% and 84% of island and mountain species were projected to face high extinction risk respectively. A doubling of warming is projected to disproportionately increase extinction risks for endemic and non-endemic native species. Thus, reducing extinction risks requires both adaptation responses in biodiversity rich-spots and enhanced climate change mitigation.}, keywords = {Extinction risk Biodiversity hotspots Global-200 ecoregions Introduced species}, ISSN = {0006-3207}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109070}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320721001221}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2236, author = {Manuamorn, Ornsaran Pomme and Biesbroek, Robbert}, title = {Do direct-access and indirect-access adaptation projects differ in their focus on local communities? A systematic analysis of 63 Adaptation Fund projects}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {20}, number = {4}, pages = {139}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-020-01716-4}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01716-4}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2237, author = {Manzanedo, Rubén D. and Manning, Peter}, title = {COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {742}, pages = {140563-140563}, keywords = {COVID-19 Climate change Climate emergency}, DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140563}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2238, author = {Mapfumo, Paul and Onyango, Mary and Honkponou, Saïd K and El Mzouri, El Houssine and Githeko, Andrew and Rabeharisoa, Lilia and Obando, Joy and Omolo, Nancy and Majule, Amos and Denton, Fatima}, title = {Pathways to transformational change in the face of climate impacts: an analytical framework}, journal = {Climate and Development}, volume = {9}, number = {5}, pages = {439-451}, ISSN = {1756-5529}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2015.1040365}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2239, author = {Marais, Eloise A. and Silvern, Rachel F. and Vodonos, Alina and Dupin, Eleonore and Bockarie, Alfred S. and Mickley, Loretta J. and Schwartz, Joel}, title = {Air Quality and Health Impact of Future Fossil Fuel Use for Electricity Generation and Transport in Africa}, journal = {Environmental Science & Technology}, volume = {53}, number = {22}, pages = {13524-13534}, ISSN = {0013-936X}, DOI = {10.1021/acs.est.9b04958}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b04958}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2240, author = {Marais, Eloise A. and Wiedinmyer, Christine}, title = {Air Quality Impact of Diffuse and Inefficient Combustion Emissions in Africa (DICE-Africa)}, journal = {Environmental Science & Technology}, volume = {50}, number = {19}, pages = {10739-10745}, ISSN = {0013-936X}, DOI = {10.1021/acs.est.6b02602}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b02602}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2241, author = {Marchetta, Francesca and Sahn, David E. and Tiberti, Luca}, title = {The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar}, journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {1203-1227}, ISSN = {0002-9092 1467-8276}, DOI = {10.1093/ajae/aaz015}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2242, author = {Marchiori, Luca and Maystadt, Jean-François and Schumacher, Ingmar}, title = {The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, volume = {63}, number = {3}, pages = {355-374}, abstract = {This paper analyzes the effects of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. We present a theoretical model that demonstrates how weather anomalies induce rural–urban migration that subsequently triggers international migration. We distinguish two transmission channels, an amenity channel and an economic geography channel. Based on annual, cross-country panel data for sub-Saharan Africa, we present an empirical model that suggests that weather anomalies increased internal and international migration through both channels. We estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total net displacement of 5 million people during the period 1960–2000, i.e. a minimum of 128,000 people every year. Based on medium UN population and IPCC climate change projections, we expect future weather anomalies to lead to an additional annual displacement of 11.8 million people by the end of the 21st century.}, keywords = {International migration Urbanization Rural–urban migration Weather anomalies Sub-Saharan Africa}, ISSN = {0095-0696}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2012.02.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069612000150}, year = {2012}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2243, author = {Marcotullio, Peter J. and Keßler, Carsten and Fekete, Balázs M.}, title = {The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {66}, pages = {102190}, abstract = {Urbanization and climate change are among the most important global trends affecting human well-being during the twenty-first century. One region expected to undergo enormous urbanization and be significantly affected by climate change is Africa. Studies already find increases in temperature and high temperature events for the region. How many people will be exposed to heat events in the future remains unclear. This paper attempts to provide a first estimate of the number of African urban residents exposed to very warm 15-day heat events (>42 °C). Using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways framework we estimate the numbers of exposed, sensitive (those younger than 5 and older than 64 years), and those in low-income nations, with gross national products of $4000 ($2005, purchasing power parity), from 2010 to 2100. We examine heat events both with and without urban heat island estimates. Our results suggest that at the low end of the range, under pathways defined as sustainable (SSP 1) and low relative levels of climate change (RCP 2.6) without including the urban heat island effect there will be large populations (>300 million) exposed to very warm heat wave by 2100. Alternatively, by 2100, the high end exposure level is approximately 2.0 billion for SSP 4 under RCP 4.5 where the urban heat island effect is included.}, keywords = {Urban Heat wave Climate change Africa Exposure Exploratory scenarios}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102190}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307731}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2244, author = {Markandya, Anil and Sampedro, Jon and Smith, Steven J. and Van Dingenen, Rita and Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina and Arto, Iñaki and González-Eguino, Mikel}, title = {Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study}, journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health}, volume = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {e126-e133}, ISSN = {2542-5196}, DOI = {10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30029-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30029-9}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @book{RN2245, author = {Markham, A. and Osipova, E. and Lafrenz Samuels, K. and Caldas, A.}, title = {World Heritage and Tourism in a Changing Climate.}, publisher = {United Nations Environment Programme}, address = {Nairobi, Kenya}, url = {http://whc.unesco.org/document/139944}, year = {2016}, type = {Book} } @article{RN2246, author = {Martens, Carola and Hickler, Thomas and Davis-Reddy, Claire and Engelbrecht, Francois and Higgins, Steven I. and von Maltitz, Graham P. and Midgley, Guy F. and Pfeiffer, Mirjam and Scheiter, Simon}, title = {Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {340-358}, abstract = {Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between ?8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and ?22 to ?6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.}, keywords = {aDGVM biome shifts and transitions carbon stocks climate change CO2 fertilization ensemble simulations uncertainties water use efficiency}, ISSN = {1354-1013}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15390}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15390}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2247, author = {Martin, V. and Chevalier, V. and Ceccato, P. and Anyamba, A. and De Simone, L. and Lubroth, J. and de La Rocque, S. and Domenech, J.}, title = {The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever}, journal = {Rev Sci Tech}, volume = {27}, number = {2}, pages = {413-26}, keywords = {Africa/epidemiology Animals Ceratopogonidae/growth & development/virology Climate Demography Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control/*veterinary Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control/*veterinary Europe/epidemiology *Greenhouse Effect Humans Insect Vectors/growth & development/virology *Rain *Rift Valley Fever/epidemiology/prevention & control/veterinary Zoonoses}, ISSN = {0253-1933 (Print) 0253-1933}, year = {2008}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2248, author = {Martínez-Capel, F. and García-López, L. and Beyer, M.}, title = {Integrating Hydrological Modelling and Ecosystem Functioning for Environmental Flows in Climate Change Scenarios in the Zambezi River (Zambezi Region, Namibia)}, journal = {River Research and Applications}, volume = {33}, number = {2}, pages = {258-275}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3058}, abstract = {Abstract The Zambezi-Chobe wetlands in Namibia are of great international importance for trans-boundary water management because of their remarkable ecological characteristics and the variety and magnitude of the ecosystem services provided. The main objective of this study is to establish the hydro-ecological baseline for the application of environmental flow regimes (EFR). The specific objectives are: (i) the assessment of environmental flow components (EFC) in the current near-natural hydrological conditions; (ii) the generation of future scenarios for climatic and socioeconomic changes; (iii) the estimation of the area?duration curves and estimated annual habitat during the inundation of the critical habitats for fisheries (mulapos), under the existing conditions and future scenarios; and (iv) to provide a framework for the future application of EFRs, based on hydrological and ecological processes. To make a sound analysis of the ecological implications, first we develop a conceptual framework of the linkages between the hydrological and biological processes concerning fish communities, because of the critical role of fisheries in the region. The EFCs in near-natural hydrological conditions provide the basis for developing interim EFRs in the region, within the framework of an adaptive management of water resources. The future scenarios indicate a mitigation of the flow variability; and, in the worst-case scenario, the reduction of the maximum flow and inundated area of the mulapos would result in a reduction of the estimated annual habitat of 22%. This means a reduction in the spawning habitats for quiet-water species, in the food resources for fry and juvenile fish and a consequent reduction in fish stocks. Furthermore, the habitat loss during low events is similar and greater under both scenarios, at ca. 35%. Here we corroborate that the EFCs and their variability may become the building blocks of flow-ecology models that lead to environmental flow recommendations, monitoring and research programmes and flow protection activities. Copyright ? 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.}, keywords = {environmental flow regime range of variability approach habitat–duration curves river flow variability water resources management Zambezi river wetlands climate change}, ISSN = {1535-1459}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3058}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3058}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2249, author = {Marzeion, Ben and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Loss of cultural world heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {9}, number = {3}, keywords = {chlimate impacts cultural heritage sealevel rise}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034001}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2250, author = {Masih, I. and Maskey, S. and Mussá, F. E. F. and Trambauer, P.}, title = {A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {18}, number = {9}, pages = {3635-3649}, ISSN = {1607-7938}, DOI = {10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2251, author = {Masson, V. L. and Benoudji, C. and Reyes, S. S. and Bernard, G.}, title = {How violence against women and girls undermines resilience to climate risks in Chad}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {43 Suppl 3}, number = {Suppl 3}, pages = {S245-s270}, keywords = {Adolescent Adult Chad *Climate Change Female Humans Middle Aged *Resilience, Psychological Risk Survivors/*psychology/statistics & numerical data Violence/*statistics & numerical data Young Adult gender equality gender-based violence resilience risks}, ISSN = {0361-3666 (Print) 0361-3666}, DOI = {10.1111/disa.12343}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/disa.12343?download=true}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2252, author = {Masters, Greg and Norgrove, Lindsey}, title = {Climate change and invasive alien species}, institution = {CABI}, url = {https://www.cabi.org/Uploads/CABI/expertise/invasive-alien-species-working-paper.pdf}, year = {2010}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2253, author = {Mastrorillo, Marina and Licker, Rachel and Bohra-Mishra, Pratikshya and Fagiolo, Giorgio and D. Estes, Lyndon and Oppenheimer, Michael}, title = {The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {39}, pages = {155-169}, keywords = {Human response to climate variation Environmental migrants Internal migration South Africa Gravity models}, ISSN = {0959-3780}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.014}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300589}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2254, author = {Masubelele, Mmoto L. and Hoffman, M. T. and Bond, W. J. and Gambiza, J.}, title = {A 50 year study shows grass cover has increased in shrublands of semi-arid South Africa}, journal = {Journal of Arid Environments}, volume = {104}, pages = {43-51}, abstract = {In many parts of the world the boundaries between grassland and shrubland biomes have changed substantially over the course of the last century. Many are projected to shift further from being grass-dominated to shrub-dominated by 2050 under global climate change and land use change projections. This paper used long-term surveys and repeat photography to assess vegetation change at the shrubland-grassland ecotone in semi-arid, South Africa. Changes in several climate variables as well as in the cover of grasses and dwarf shrubs over three time periods (1962, 1989 and 2009) were investigated at eight localities within a broad 500 km ecotone between the Grassland and Nama-karoo biomes. Results showed that for most sites grass cover has increased and that dwarf shrub cover has decreased over time. This contradicts earlier views which warned against the expansion of dwarf shrublands in response to over-grazing as well as more recent views which suggest that more mesic biomes in the Karoo Midlands will contract in response to climate-induced aridification. The decline in stocking densities and more conservation-friendly land management practices together with an increase in large wet events in the Nama-karoo biome may have contributed to the increase in grass cover.}, keywords = {Central interior of South Africa Climate change Ecotone Growth forms Long-term change Nama-karoo biome Overgrazing Rainfall Shrub expansion Temporal change and vegetation cover}, ISSN = {0140-1963}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.01.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196314000226}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2255, author = {Masullo, Indira and Larsen, Gaia and Brown, Louise and Dougherty-Choux, Lisa}, title = {“Direct Access” To Climate Finance: Lessons Learned By National Institutions}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/22DIRECT_ACCESS_TO_CLIMATE_FINANCE_LESSONS_LEARNED_BY_NATIONAL_INSTITUTIONS.pdf}, year = {2015}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2256, author = {Mathews, E. H. and Richards, P. G. and Van Wyk, S. L. and Rousseau, P. G.}, title = {Energy efficiency of ultra-low-cost housing}, journal = {Building and Environment}, volume = {30}, number = {3}, pages = {427-432}, ISSN = {0360-1323}, DOI = {10.1016/0360-1323(94)00061-V}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/036013239400061V}, year = {1995}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2257, author = {Matlin, Stephen A. and Depoux, Anneliese and Schütte, Stefanie and Flahault, Antoine and Saso, Luciano}, title = {Migrants’ and refugees’ health: towards an agenda of solutions}, journal = {Public Health Reviews}, volume = {39}, number = {1}, pages = {55}, keywords = {communicating climate-change mental-health care history Public, Environmental & Occupational Health}, ISSN = {2107-6952}, DOI = {10.1186/s40985-018-0104-9}, url = {://WOS:000445893400001}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2258, author = {Maúre, G. and Pinto, I. and Ndebele-Murisa, M. and Muthige, M. and Lennard, C. and Nikulin, G. and Dosio, A. and Meque, A.}, title = {The southern African climate under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {065002}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab190}, url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=6/a=065002?key=crossref.448e324e9ea220a0612802105dc5168a}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2259, author = {Maurin, Olivier and Davies, T. Jonathan and Burrows, John E. and Daru, Barnabas H. and Yessoufou, Kowiyou and Muasya, A. Muthama and van der Bank, Michelle and Bond, William J.}, title = {Savanna fire and the origins of the ‘underground forests’ of Africa}, journal = {New Phytologist}, volume = {204}, number = {1}, pages = {201-214}, abstract = {Summary The origin of fire-adapted lineages is a long-standing question in ecology. Although phylogeny can provide a significant contribution to the ongoing debate, its use has been precluded by the lack of comprehensive DNA data. Here, we focus on the ?underground trees? (=geoxyles) of southern Africa, one of the most distinctive growth forms characteristic of fire-prone savannas. We placed geoxyles within the most comprehensive dated phylogeny for the regional flora comprising over 1400 woody species. Using this phylogeny, we tested whether African geoxyles evolved concomitantly with those of the South American cerrado and used their phylogenetic position to date the appearance of humid savannas. We found multiple independent origins of the geoxyle life-form mostly from the Pliocene, a period consistent with the origin of cerrado, with the majority of divergences occurring within the last 2 million yr. When contrasted with their tree relatives, geoxyles occur in regions characterized by higher rainfall and greater fire frequency. Our results indicate that the geoxylic growth form may have evolved in response to the interactive effects of frequent fires and high precipitation. As such, geoxyles may be regarded as markers of fire-maintained savannas occurring in climates suitable for forests.}, keywords = {fire adaptation geoxylic suffrutex phylogeny Pliocene savanna trees of southern Africa underground forests}, ISSN = {0028-646X}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12936}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12936}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2260, author = {Mavah, Germain A. and Funk, Stephan M. and Child, Brian and Swisher, Marilyn E. and Nasi, Robert and Fa, John E.}, title = {Food and livelihoods in park-adjacent communities: The case of the Odzala Kokoua National Park}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {222}, pages = {44-51}, ISSN = {00063207}, DOI = {10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.036}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2261, author = {Mawren, D. and Hermes, J. and Reason, C. J. C.}, title = {Marine heatwaves in the Mozambique Channel}, journal = {Climate Dynamics}, abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more frequent and intense around the world leading to long-term impacts on ecosystems and subsequent socioeconomic consequences. To date, MHWs have not been considered in the Mozambique Channel, a highly biodiverse region with sensitive coral reefs. An assessment of MHW metrics here shows that these events tend to be more intense and last longer in the southeastern part of the channel especially during austral summer. Focus is placed on a particularly sensitive region west of southern Madagascar which shows significant positive trends in MHW metrics over the period 1982–2019 (frequency, intensity and duration). In austral summer 2017, this region experienced the longest and most intense MHW recorded in the past 35 years. This event lasted for 48 days and reached a maximum intensity of 3.44 °C above climatology. The warming largely resulted from anomalous net surface heat fluxes driven by weaker winds and increased insolation but was modulated by horizontal advection and the presence of an anticyclonic eddy. The wind and insolation anomalies were associated with a strong positive Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), an anomalously weak Mozambique Channel Trough and westward extending Mascarene High. Correlation analysis suggests that long-lasting and intense MHW events occurring between January and March in this region may be associated with positive SIOD events. Changes in winds and surface heat fluxes associated with tropical cyclone Dineo appear to have briefly weakened the event in mid-February whereas those associated with ex-tropical cyclone Enawo appear to have contributed to its end in mid-March 2017.}, ISSN = {1432-0894}, DOI = {10.1007/s00382-021-05909-3}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05909-3}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2263, author = {Maystadt, J. F. and Calderone, M. and You, L.}, title = {Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan}, journal = {Journal of Economic Geography}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {649-671}, ISSN = {1468-2702 1468-2710}, DOI = {10.1093/jeg/lbu033}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu033}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2262, author = {Maystadt, Jean-François and Ecker, Olivier}, title = {Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?}, journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, volume = {96}, number = {4}, pages = {1157-1182}, ISSN = {0002-9092 1467-8276}, DOI = {10.1093/ajae/aau010}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau010}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2264, author = {Mba, Wilfried Pokam and Longandjo, Georges-Noel T. and Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran and Bell, Jean-Pierre and James, Rachel and Vondou, Derbetini A. and Haensler, Andreas and Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C. and Guenang, Guy Merlin and Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie Djiotang and Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H. and Takong, Ridick R. and Nikulin, Grigory and Lennard, Christopher J. and Dosio, Alessandro}, title = {Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {13}, number = {5}, pages = {055011}, ISSN = {1748-9326}, DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab048}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab048}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2265, author = {Mbakaya, Balwani Chingatichifwe and Kalembo, Fatch Welcome and Zgambo, Maggie}, title = {Use, adoption, and effectiveness of tippy-tap handwashing station in promoting hand hygiene practices in resource-limited settings: a systematic review}, journal = {BMC Public Health}, volume = {20}, number = {1}, pages = {1005}, ISSN = {1471-2458}, DOI = {10.1186/s12889-020-09101-w}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09101-w}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2266, author = {Mbaye, L. M.}, title = {Climate change, natural disasters, and migration}, institution = {African Development Bank}, DOI = {10.15185/izawol.346}, year = {2017}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2267, author = {Mbereko, A. and Chimbari, M. J. and Mukaratirwa, S.}, title = {The political ecology of stakeholder-driven climate change adaptation: Case study from Ntalale ward, Gwanda district, in Zimbabwe}, journal = {Jamba}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {419}, ISSN = {2072-845X (Print) 1996-1421}, DOI = {10.4102/jamba.v10i1.419}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6013978/pdf/JAMBA-10-419.pdf}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2268, author = {Mbow, Cheikh and Smith, Pete and Skole, David and Duguma, Lalisa and Bustamante, Mercedes}, title = {Achieving mitigation and adaptation to climate change through sustainable agroforestry practices in africa}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {6}, pages = {8-14}, ISSN = {1877-3435}, DOI = {10.1016/j.cosust.2013.09.002}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2269, author = {McCarl, Bruce A. and Musumba, Mark and Smith, Joel B. and Kirshen, Paul and Jones, Russell and El-Ganzori, Akram and Ali, Mohamed A. and Kotb, Mossad and El-Shinnawy, Ibrahim and El-Agizy, Mona and Bayoumi, Mohamed and Hynninen, Riina}, title = {Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector}, journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change}, volume = {20}, number = {7}, pages = {1097-1109}, abstract = {Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.}, ISSN = {1573-1596}, DOI = {10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2270, author = {McCarl, Bruce A. and Thayer, Anastasia W. and Jones, Jason P. H.}, title = {The challenge of climate change adaptation for agriculture: An economically oriented review}, journal = {Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, pages = {321-344}, ISSN = {1074-0708 2056-7405}, DOI = {10.1017/aae.2016.27}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2271, author = {McCartney, Matthew P. and Whiting, Louise and Makin, Ian and Lankford, Bruce A. and Ringler, Claudia}, title = {Rethinking irrigation modernisation: realising multiple objectives through the integration of fisheries}, journal = {Marine and Freshwater Research}, volume = {70}, number = {9}, pages = {1201-1210}, abstract = {Irrigation has been, and will remain, instrumental in addressing water security (Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6), food insecurity (SDG 2) and poverty (SDG 1) goals. However, the global context in which irrigation takes place is changing rapidly. A call for healthier and more sustainable food systems is placing new demands on how irrigation is developed and managed. Growing pressures from competing water uses in the domestic and industrial sectors, as well increasing environmental awareness, mean irrigation is increasingly called on to perform better, delivering acceptable returns on investment and simultaneously improving food security, rural livelihoods and nutrition, as well as supporting environmental conservation. Better integration of fisheries (including aquaculture) in irrigation planning, investment and management can contribute to the modernisation of irrigation and the achievement of the multiple objectives that it is called on to deliver. A framework illustrating how fisheries can be better integrated with irrigation, and how the two can complement each other across a range of scales, from scheme to catchment and, ultimately, national level, is presented.}, keywords = {aquaculture, inland fisheries, integrated management, sustainable agriculture.}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1071/MF19161}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/MF19161}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2272, author = {McClanahan, T. R. and Ateweberhan, M. and Darling, E. S. and Graham, N. A. and Muthiga, N. A.}, title = {Biogeography and change among regional coral communities across the Western Indian Ocean}, journal = {PLoS One}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {e93385}, keywords = {Animals Anthozoa/*physiology Biodiversity Coral Reefs Data Collection Indian Ocean Linear Models *Phylogeography}, ISSN = {1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0093385}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24718371}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2273, author = {McCleery, Robert and Monadjem, Ara and Baiser, Benjamin and Fletcher, Robert and Vickers, Karen and Kruger, Laurence}, title = {Animal diversity declines with broad-scale homogenization of canopy cover in African savannas}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {226}, pages = {54-62}, keywords = {African elephant Bats Birds Community composition Functional traits Terrestrial small mammals}, ISSN = {0006-3207}, DOI = {10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.020}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320718306384}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2274, author = {McCord, G. C.}, title = {Malaria ecology and climate change}, journal = {Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top.}, volume = {225}, number = {3}, pages = {459-470}, ISSN = {1951-6355}, DOI = {10.1140/epjst/e2015-50097-1}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50097-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50097-1 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50097-1 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50097-1.pdf}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2275, author = {McCord, Paul F. and Cox, Michael and Schmitt-Harsh, Mikaela and Evans, Tom}, title = {Crop diversification as a smallholder livelihood strategy within semi-arid agricultural systems near Mount Kenya}, journal = {Land Use Policy}, volume = {42}, pages = {738-750}, abstract = {Crop diversification is one strategy that smallholder farmers may employ to reduce their vulnerability in the face of global environmental change. Diversification not only expands the number of potential crop types for market, it also improves agroecosystem functioning by building redundancy into the agricultural system and allowing for innovation in areas exhibiting impacts of climate variability. While the driving forces behind and impacts of crop diversification have been extensively investigated, there are particular issues for the prospects of crop diversification to reduce household vulnerability within semi-arid agricultural systems. The decision to diversify crops is a particularly challenging one for farmers in semi-arid systems. Semi-arid systems can exhibit greater variability in annual precipitation in areas that are marginal for agricultural production. Changes to the timing of the growing season (onset of rains) and mid-season dry periods in particular pose significant challenges to farmers in semi-arid ecosystems. This paper examines the spatial diversification of crop types across an upland-lowland gradient on Mount Kenya's northwestern slopes. We perform regression analyses using household-level survey data collected during the summer of 2012 to investigate the factors contributing to varying levels of crop diversification and implications for crop production in a semi-arid irrigated agricultural system. We hypothesize that the study area locations at higher elevations will be able to grow a greater variety of crops due to climate suitability. Our analysis demonstrates that household-level income, field size, exposure to agricultural extension officers, and suitability of environmental conditions are related to the likelihood of smallholder crop diversification. More favorable growing conditions appear to outweigh limitations posed by inaccessibility and financial constraints, which has implications for adaptation to climate change in semi-arid ecosystems. We discuss the results in the context of challenges posed by global environmental change.}, keywords = {Crop diversity Kenya Agroecology Vulnerability Technology adoption Semi-arid agriculture}, ISSN = {0264-8377}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.10.012}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837714002294}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2276, author = {McDonald, Robert I. and Weber, Katherine and Padowski, Julie and Flörke, Martina and Schneider, Christof and Green, Pamela A. and Gleeson, Thomas and Eckman, Stephanie and Lehner, Bernhard and Balk, Deborah and Boucher, Timothy and Grill, Günther and Montgomery, Mark}, title = {Water on an urban planet: Urbanization and the reach of urban water infrastructure}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {27}, pages = {96-105}, ISSN = {09593780}, DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.022}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2277, author = {McDonnell, L. H. and Chapman, L. J.}, title = {At the edge of the thermal window: effects of elevated temperature on the resting metabolism, hypoxia tolerance and upper critical thermal limit of a widespread African cichlid}, journal = {Conserv Physiol}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {cov050}, keywords = {Critical oxygen tension fish physiology respirometry thermal stress thermal tolerance tropical fish}, ISSN = {2051-1434 (Print) 2051-1434 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1093/conphys/cov050}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27293734}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2278, author = {McIntyre, Peter B. and Reidy, Catherine A. and Revenga, Carmen}, title = {Linking freshwater fishery management to global food security and biodiversity conservation}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {113}, number = {45}, DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1521540113}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2279, author = {McKechnie, Andrew E. and Rushworth, Ian A. and Myburgh, Ferdi and Cunningham, Susan J.}, title = {Mortality among birds and bats during an extreme heat event in eastern South Africa}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {46}, number = {4}, pages = {687-691}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13025}, abstract = {Abstract Heat-related mortality events involving birds and bats are projected to occur more frequently as a result of anthropogenic global heating. Reports of mass mortalities associated with extreme heat have, over the last decade, mostly involved Australian birds and pteropodid flying-foxes. Here, we report a mortality event involving ~110 birds and fruit bats in eastern South Africa in early November 2020 when maximum air temperatures (Tmax) reached 43?45°C and relative humidities were 21?23%. The mortalities included 47 birds of 14 species, all but three of which were passerines, and ~60 Wahlberg?s epauletted fruit bats (Epomophorus wahlbergi). This mortality event occurred on a single very hot day preceded by several cooler days (Tmax = 37?39°C at one location) and involved weather conditions similar to those associated with at least one recent flying-fox die-off in Australia. The disproportionately high representation of passerines among the avian mortalities supports recent predictions that songbirds are more vulnerable to lethal hyperthermia on account of the relative inefficiency of panting as an avenue of evaporative heat dissipation. As far as we are aware, this is the first documented heat-related mortality event involving wild birds and bats in southern Africa.}, keywords = {climate change deaths heat wave hyperthermia Pteropodidae}, ISSN = {1442-9985}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13025}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13025}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2280, author = {McNicol, Iain M. and Ryan, Casey M. and Mitchard, Edward T. A.}, title = {Carbon losses from deforestation and widespread degradation offset by extensive growth in African woodlands}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {9}, number = {1}, pages = {3045}, abstract = {Land use carbon fluxes are major uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. This is because carbon stocks, and the extent of deforestation, degradation and biomass growth remain poorly resolved, particularly in the densely populated savannas which dominate the tropics. Here we quantify changes in aboveground woody carbon stocks from 2007–2010 in the world’s largest savanna—the southern African woodlands. Degradation is widespread, affecting 17.0% of the wooded area, and is the source of 55% of biomass loss (−0.075 PgC yr−1). Deforestation losses are lower (−0.038 PgC yr−1), despite deforestation rates being 5× greater than existing estimates. Gross carbon losses are therefore 3–6x higher than previously thought. Biomass gains occurred in 48% of the region and totalled +0.12 PgC yr−1. Region-wide stocks are therefore stable at ~5.5 PgC. We show that land cover in African woodlands is highly dynamic with globally high rates of degradation and deforestation, but also extensive regrowth.}, ISSN = {2041-1723}, DOI = {10.1038/s41467-018-05386-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05386-z}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2281, author = {McOmber, C. and Audia, C. and Crowley, F.}, title = {Building resilience by challenging social norms: integrating a transformative approach within the BRACED consortia}, journal = {Disasters}, volume = {43 Suppl 3}, pages = {S271-s294}, keywords = {BRACED (Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters) climate change gender gender transformative approach resilience transformation}, ISSN = {0361-3666}, DOI = {10.1111/disa.12341}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6850171/pdf/DISA-43-S271.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2282, author = {Meadow, A. M. and Ferguson, D. B. and Guido, Z. and Horangic, A. and Owen, G. and Wall, T.}, title = {Moving toward the deliberate coproduction of climate science knowledge}, journal = {Climate, and Society}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {179-191}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00050.1}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2283, author = {Mechler, R. and Singh, C. and Ebi, K. and Djalante, R. and Thomas, A. and James, R. and Tschakert, P. and Wewerinke-Singh, M. and Schinko, T. and Ley, D. and Nalau, J. and Bouwer, L. M. and Huggel, C. and Huq, S. and Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and Surminski, S. and Pinho, P. and Jones, R. and Boyd, E. and Revi, A.}, title = {Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy}, journal = {Sustainability Science}, keywords = {Climate risk Limits to adaptation Loss and Damage Transformation}, ISSN = {0123456789}, DOI = {10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9}, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2284, author = {Meissner, Richard and Jacobs, Inga}, title = {Theorising complex water governance in Africa: the case of the proposed Epupa Dam on the Kunene River}, journal = {International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics}, volume = {16}, number = {1}, pages = {21-48}, ISSN = {1573-1553}, DOI = {10.1007/s10784-014-9250-9}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-014-9250-9}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2285, author = {Mekonnen, Mesfin M. and Hoekstra, Arjen Y.}, title = {Four billion people facing severe water scarcity}, journal = {Science Advances}, volume = {2}, number = {2}, pages = {e1500323}, abstract = {Freshwater scarcity is increasingly perceived as a global systemic risk. Previous global water scarcity assessments, measuring water scarcity annually, have underestimated experienced water scarcity by failing to capture the seasonal fluctuations in water consumption and availability. We assess blue water scarcity globally at a high spatial resolution on a monthly basis. We find that two-thirds of the global population (4.0 billion people) live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least 1 month of the year. Nearly half of those people live in India and China. Half a billion people in the world face severe water scarcity all year round. Putting caps to water consumption by river basin, increasing water-use efficiencies, and better sharing of the limited freshwater resources will be key in reducing the threat posed by water scarcity on biodiversity and human welfare.}, DOI = {10.1126/sciadv.1500323}, url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/2/e1500323.abstract}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2286, author = {Melillo, J. M. and Lu, X. and Kicklighter, D. W. and Reilly, J. M. and Cai, Y. and Sokolov, A. P.}, title = {Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation}, journal = {Ambio}, volume = {45}, number = {2}, pages = {133-45}, keywords = {*Carbon Sequestration *Climate Change *Conservation of Natural Resources *Ecosystem Models, Theoretical Carbon sequestration Climate change Global carbon cycle Mitigation Protected areas}, ISSN = {1654-7209 (Electronic) 0044-7447 (Linking)}, DOI = {10.1007/s13280-015-0693-1}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26474765}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2287, author = {Meque, Arlindo and Gamedze, Sunshine and Moitlhobogi, Thembani and Booneeady, Prithiviraj and Samuel, Sydney and Mpalang, Letlhogonolo}, title = {Numerical weather prediction and climate modelling: Challenges and opportunities for improving climate services delivery in Southern Africa}, journal = {Climate Services}, volume = {23}, pages = {100243}, keywords = {Numerical weather prediction Climate modelling Southern Africa Climate services}, ISSN = {2405-8807}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100243}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880721000315}, year = {2021}, type = {Journal Article} } @techreport{RN2288, author = {Mercy Corps}, title = {Climate Information Services Research Initiative: Final Report. A Learning Agenda for Climate Information Services in Sub-Saharan Africa (USAID)}, institution = {Mercy Corps}, url = {https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2020_USAID_Mercy-CorpsC-CISRI.pdf}, year = {2019}, type = {Report} } @article{RN2289, author = {Meresa, Hadush K. and Gatachew, Mulusew T.}, title = {Climate change impact on river flow extremes in the Upper Blue Nile River basin}, journal = {Journal of Water and Climate Change}, volume = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {759-781}, abstract = {This paper aims to study climate change impact on the hydrological extremes and projected precipitation extremes in far future (2071–2100) period in the Upper Blue Nile River basin (UBNRB). The changes in precipitation extremes were derived from the most recent AFROCORDEX climate data base projection scenarios compared to the reference period (1971–2000). The climate change impacts on the hydrological extremes were evaluated using three conceptual hydrological models: GR4 J, HBV, and HMETS; and two objective functions: NSE and LogNSE. These hydrological models are calibrated and validated in the periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010, respectively. The results indicate that the wet/dry spell will significantly decrease/increase due to climate change in some sites of the region, while in others, there is increase/decrease in wet/dry spell but not significantly, respectively. The extreme river flow will be less attenuated and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence than at present. Low flows are projected to increase most prominently for lowland sites, due to the combined effects of projected decreases in Belg and Bega precipitation, and projected increases in evapotranspiration that will reduce residual soil moisture in Bega and Belg seasons.}, ISSN = {2040-2244}, DOI = {10.2166/wcc.2018.154}, url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.154}, year = {2018}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2290, author = {Merkens, Jan-Ludolf and Reimann, Lena and Hinkel, Jochen and Vafeidis, Athanasios T.}, title = {Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways}, journal = {Global and Planetary Change}, volume = {145}, pages = {57-66}, abstract = {Existing quantifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) used for climate impact assessment do not account for subnational population dynamics such as coastward-migration that can be critical for coastal impact assessment. This paper extends the SSPs by developing spatial projections of global coastal population distribution for the five basic SSPs. Based on a series of coastal migration drivers we develop coastal narratives for each SSP. These narratives account for differences in coastal and inland population developments in urban and rural areas. To spatially distribute population, we use the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national population and urbanisation projections and employ country-specific growth rates, which differ for coastal and inland as well as for urban and rural regions, to project coastal population for each SSP. These rates are derived from spatial analysis of historical population data and adjusted for each SSP based on the coastal narratives. Our results show that, compared to the year 2000 (638 million), the population living in the Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases by 58% to 71% until 2050 and exceeds one billion in all SSPs. By the end of the 21st century, global coastal population declines to 830–907 million in all SSPs except for SSP3, where coastal population growth continues and reaches 1.184 billion. Overall, the population living in the LECZ is higher by 85 to 239 million compared to the original IIASA projections. Asia expects the highest absolute growth (238–303 million), Africa the highest relative growth (153% to 218%). Our results highlight regions where high coastal population growth is expected and will therefore face an increased exposure to coastal flooding.}, keywords = {Coastal Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Spatial population projections}, ISSN = {0921-8181}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.08.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301473}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2291, author = {Mersha, Azeb Assefa and Van Laerhoven, Frank}, title = {A gender approach to understanding the differentiated impact of barriers to adaptation: responses to climate change in rural Ethiopia}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {16}, number = {6}, pages = {1701-1713}, ISSN = {1436-378X}, DOI = {10.1007/s10113-015-0921-z}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0921-z}, year = {2016}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2292, author = {Mertz, Ole and Lykke, AnneMette and Reenberg, Anette}, title = {Importance and seasonality of vegetable consumption and marketing in Burkina Faso}, journal = {Economic Botany}, volume = {55}, number = {2}, pages = {276-289}, abstract = {The use of vegetables in two rural communities in Burkina Faso is quantified through the use of food diaries kept by 13 households during one year. Interviews on preferences, field registration, and a market survey supplement the diaries. The use of wild species is concentrated onParkia biglobosa, Corchorus spp.,Adansonia digitata, andBombax costatum. At least five other wild species are mentioned as important but very rarely occur in the diet, indicating the usefulness of diaries compared to interviews.Capsicum frutescens, Abelmoschus esculentus, Allium cepa, andSolanum lycopersicon are the most commonly used cultivated species. Wild vegetables constitute 35% and 59% of the total vegetable consumption in the two communities. Most products are highly seasonal in supply and prices vary accordingly. Households compensate for the seasonality by drying products, but stocks are often insufficient and vegetable purchases needed. Many of the vegetable species studied should be integrated in agricultural research and extension programs.}, ISSN = {1874-9364}, DOI = {10.1007/BF02864565}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02864565}, year = {2001}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2293, author = {Messerli, Peter and Giger, Markus and Dwyer, Michael B. and Breu, Thomas and Eckert, Sandra}, title = {The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South}, journal = {Applied Geography}, volume = {53}, pages = {449-459}, ISSN = {01436228}, DOI = {10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.07.005}, year = {2014}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2294, author = {Messina, Jane P. and Brady, Oliver J. and Golding, Nick and Kraemer, Moritz U. G. and Wint, G. R. William and Ray, Sarah E. and Pigott, David M. and Shearer, Freya M. and Johnson, Kimberly and Earl, Lucas and Marczak, Laurie B. and Shirude, Shreya and Davis Weaver, Nicole and Gilbert, Marius and Velayudhan, Raman and Jones, Peter and Jaenisch, Thomas and Scott, Thomas W. and Reiner, Robert C. and Hay, Simon I.}, title = {The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue}, journal = {Nature Microbiology}, volume = {4}, number = {9}, pages = {1508-1515}, ISSN = {2058-5276}, DOI = {10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2295, author = {Meyer, Carsten and Kreft, Holger and Guralnick, Robert and Jetz, Walter}, title = {Global priorities for an effective information basis of biodiversity distributions}, journal = {Nature Communications}, volume = {6}, DOI = {10.1038/ncomms9221}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2296, author = {Mfitumukiza, David and Barasa, Bernard and Egeru, Anthony and Mbogga, Michael S. and Wokadala, James and Ahabwe, Andrew and Kasajja, Stephen and Namususwa, Zakia and Nabatta, Claire}, title = {The role of indigenous knowledge (IK) in adaptation to drought by agropastoral smallholder farmers in Uganda}, journal = {Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {44-52}, ISSN = {0975-1068}, url = {http://nopr.niscair.res.in/handle/123456789/52833 }, year = {2020}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2297, author = {Midgley, Guy F. and Bond, William J.}, title = {Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, number = {9}, pages = {823-829}, abstract = {Projections of African ecological responses to climate change diverge widely. This Perspective unpicks some of the reasons for this uncertainty and reveals the importance of accounting for the influences of disturbancesand climate on vegetation.}, ISSN = {1758-6798}, DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2753}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2753}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2298, author = {Miguel, Edward and Satyanath, Shanker and Sergenti, Ernest}, title = {Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, volume = {112}, number = {4}, pages = {725-753}, ISSN = {0022-3808 1537-534X}, DOI = {10.1086/421174}, url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/421174}, year = {2004}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2299, author = {Miller, James D. and Hutchins, Michael}, title = {The impacts of urbanisation and climate change on urban flooding and urban water quality: A review of the evidence concerning the United Kingdom}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}, volume = {12}, pages = {345-362}, keywords = {United Kingdom Climate change Urbanisation Hydrology Water quality WFD Brexit}, ISSN = {2214-5818}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.06.006}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581817300435}, year = {2017}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2300, author = {Milne, Robyn and Cunningham, Susan J. and Lee, Alan T. K. and Smit, Ben}, title = {The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot}, journal = {Conservation Physiology}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, abstract = {We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.}, ISSN = {2051-1434}, DOI = {10.1093/conphys/cov048}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/conphys/cov048}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2301, author = {Minoli, Sara and Müller, Christoph and Elliott, Joshua and Ruane, Alex C. and Jägermeyr, Jonas and Zabel, Florian and Dury, Marie and Folberth, Christian and François, Louis and Hank, Tobias and Jacquemin, Ingrid and Liu, Wenfeng and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A. M.}, title = {Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation}, journal = {Earth's Future}, volume = {7}, number = {12}, pages = {1464-1480}, note = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001130}, abstract = {Abstract Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.}, keywords = {temperature increase crop yield adaptation growing period irrigation crop model}, ISSN = {2328-4277}, DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001130}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001130}, year = {2019}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2302, author = {Minsker, Barbara and Baldwin, Lily and Crittenden, John and Kabbes, Karen and Karamouz, Mohammad and Lansey, Kevin and Malinowski, Patricia and Nzewi, Emmanuel and Pandit, Arka and Parker, John and Rivera, Samuel and Surbeck, Cristiane and Wallace William, A. and Williams, John}, title = {Progress and Recommendations for Advancing Performance-Based Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Design}, journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management}, volume = {141}, number = {12}, pages = {A4015006}, DOI = {10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000521}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000521}, year = {2015}, type = {Journal Article} } @article{RN2303, author = {Missirian, A. and Schlenker, W.}, title = {Asylum applications